Shelby Miller Trade

[TwinsTerritory]

I'd love to hear people's thoughts on trading for Shelby Miller.  He's not necessarily an ace, but he's probably as close as the Twins could get this offseason w/o shelling out $150M.  Miller begins arbitration this year, so he is under team control until 2019.  The Braves appear to be looking for prospects so they can contend in their new stadium.

 

 Is this something the Twins should consider?  What would a fair trade look like?

[Mike Sixel]

I think he's reached his peak.....not sure i"m a believer. Some days I am, some I am not......so I'm not sure I would use their resources on him, but I wouldn't crucify them if they did....

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

I think they should consider it. While he's not a top-tier ace, I think he's be very comparable to Sonny Gray, though. The only down side is the Twins starting rotation is already a bit crowded. He's similar to a 2014-Hughes or good-E. Santana. Probably not a high enough ceiling for the Twins to do it.

 

If they would do it ...

 

The Braves gave up Jason Heyward for Miller, so I'm guessing they would ask for quite a bit. It'd probably take at least one Top-15 prospect, maybe two. They just traded Simmons, so Polanco could probably headline the deal. They'll want pitching, so maybe either Stewart or Gonsalves or Jorge would be the other top prospect.

 

If that price is too high, maybe a Polanco + two other Top-25/30 prospects would work. If 3 players go, I'd hope the Twins would get an additional prospect, Top-20, back from the Braves.

 

[bluechipper]

3.82 fip and 7.6 career SO/9 In the NL. He's way closer to a three than an ace. No way is he worth giving up a guy in the Twins top 10 prospects.

[tobi0040]

To all future posters on this thread.  Please don't throw out a trade involving Nolasco.

[TwinsTerritory]

 

I think they should consider it. While he's not a top-tier ace, I think he's be very comparable to Sonny Gray, though. The only down side is the Twins starting rotation is already a bit crowded. He's similar to a 2014-Hughes or good-E. Santana. Probably not a high enough ceiling for the Twins to do it.

 

If they would do it ...

 

The Braves gave up Jason Heyward for Miller, so I'm guessing they would ask for quite a bit. It'd probably take at least one Top-15 prospect, maybe two. They just traded Simmons, so Polanco could probably headline the deal. They'll want pitching, so maybe either Stewart or Gonsalves or Jorge would be the other top prospect.

 

If that price is too high, maybe a Polanco + two other Top-25/30 prospects would work. If 3 players go, I'd hope the Twins would get an additional prospect, Top-20, back from the Braves.

If that is the asking price, I'd do it in a heartbeat.  I'm guessing the Braves are looking for more than that.   I might be way off, but I was thinking it would be more like a top 5 prospect and two other top 25 prospects.   Maybe something headlined by Kepler.

[bluechipper]

 

I think they should consider it. While he's not a top-tier ace, I think he's be very comparable to Sonny Gray, though. The only down side is the Twins starting rotation is already a bit crowded. He's similar to a 2014-Hughes or good-E. Santana. Probably not a high enough ceiling for the Twins to do it.

 

If they would do it ...

 

The Braves gave up Jason Heyward for Miller, so I'm guessing they would ask for quite a bit. It'd probably take at least one Top-15 prospect, maybe two. They just traded Simmons, so Polanco could probably headline the deal. They'll want pitching, so maybe either Stewart or Gonsalves or Jorge would be the other top prospect.

 

If that price is too high, maybe a Polanco + two other Top-25/30 prospects would work. If 3 players go, I'd hope the Twins would get an additional prospect, Top-20, back from the Braves.

That's way too much to give up for another average pitcher. The Twins have plenty of those.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Career 115 ERA+, 3.2 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, all in the NL.

 

Gibson was up to 108 ERA+, 3.0 BB/9, and 6.7 K/9 last year.

 

Why bother?

 

Miller also only has 3 years of control left, all at arbitration salaries (projected $4.9 mil this year and going up from there).

 

Of course, I really don't know what the Braves are doing.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think they should consider it. While he's not a top-tier ace, I think he's be very comparable to Sonny Gray, though.

Gray, career ERA- 76 and FIP- 87

 

Miller, career ERA- 87 and FIP- 103

 

(100 is league average, lower is better)

 

Plus Gray has an extra year of control at league minimum salary right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

While I don't quite get the Simmons trade, the Braves did receive Newcomb who has most recently been ranked #19 by MLB Pipeline, #25 by Keith Law, #37 by BA, etc.

 

By comparison, Polanco was #75 at MLB Pipeline.  Not sure if he's an adequate headliner to pull off this kind of deal.

[nicksaviking]

Depends what the price is, I'd suspect it's high.  If it's not, I think he can still be better than a #3.  He still has a 94 MPH fastball and his strikeouts did rebound a bit last year, though not to the level one would hope.

 

He really increased the usage of his cutter last year at the expense of his curve.  I don't know what to make of that, but changing your repertoire during your age 24 season makes me think we haven't seen the finished product yet, I think he still has plenty of potential to become close to what people thought he would.

 

Not much of a change-up though so Neil Allen votes no.

[Winston Smith]

He'd be our best starter and cost some decent prospects so it isn't a Terry type trade, imo. Plus we don't have Duensing to include in the trade.

[Physics Guy]

Where is our resident Braves expert?  Biggentleben, what say you?

[Major League Ready]

I would guess that deal requires a Kepler or Gordon plus another B- prospect.

 

That would put us in a situation where an injury is required for Duffey to have a spot.  May is in the pen for sure and we need two injuries to have a spot for  Berrios.  At least that's the case if you put Milone behind Berrios in the pecking order.

 

Two questions come to mind.  Do we want to create a situation where Berrios and Duffey are the 6th and 7th starter for the next two years. I realize guys get hurt but I don't like this idea.  How much better than Duffey and Berrios is Miller and do we want to give up 6 years of Kepler or equivalent for 3 years of Miller?

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I think I agree with MLR......get an ACE type, or fill other holes. I'm just not sold on Miller.Unless of course you move 1-2 of your current number 3 types.

[bluechipper]

 

I would guess that deal requires a Kepler or Gordon plus another B- prospect.

 

That would put us in a situation where an injury is required for Duffey to have a spot.  May is in the pen for sure and we need two injuries to have a spot for  Berrios.  At least that's the case if you put Milone behind Berrios in the pecking order.

 

Two questions come to mind.  Do we want to create a situation where Duffey is the 6th starter and Berrios is the 7th for the next two years.   The follow-up is ... How much better than Duffey and Berrios is Miller and do we want to give up 6 years of Kepler or equivalent for 3 years of Miller?

 

I would be on the fire Ryan bandwagon if this occurred unless by some miracle they could move Nolasco or Hughes.

I think there is a good chance that Berrios is better than Miller right now.

[Physics Guy]

 

 

Career 115 ERA+, 3.2 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, all in the NL.

 

Gibson was up to 108 ERA+, 3.0 BB/9, and 6.7 K/9 last year.

 

Why bother?

 

Miller also only has 3 years of control left, all at arbitration salaries (projected $4.9 mil this year and going up from there).

 

Of course, I really don't know what the Braves are doing.

I think what you are trying to say is that Miller isn't much better than Gibson.  If I'm wrong, please correct me.  Miller has three full seasons under has belt by the age of 25, whereas Gibson has two at 28.  I have a feeling you may be underselling Miller a bit.  Miller was already pitching in the majors (in the bullpen) at the age that Gibson was pitching for the Missouri Tigers.

 

That being said, I agree that they would need to move at least on pitcher from their current rotation to do this.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Given that Miller's ace potential is still just that -- potential -- and he'd cost ~$25 mil in salary of the next 3 years anyway, plus surrendering talent in trade, I think I'd rather just look at free agents if the goal is to acquire an ace this winter.  I've heard speculation that Cueto or Zimmermann might have to settle for $125-150 mil with Price and Greinke leading the pack.

 

EDIT: $100-125 mil would be my preferred range, although if we were prioritizing an "ace" acquisition, pushing up to $150 mil for the right guy should be in consideration.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think what you are trying to say is that Miller isn't much better than Gibson.  If I'm wrong, please correct me.  Miller has three full seasons under has belt by the age of 25, whereas Gibson has two at 28.  I have a feeling you may be underselling Miller a bit.  Miller was already pitching in the majors (in the bullpen) at the age that Gibson was pitching for the Missouri Tigers.

No, I'm not trying to say that. Sorry for the confusion!  Just pointing out how far Miller has been from being an ace.

 

I'd take Miller over Gibson, even with higher salaries and one less year of control, but that's not the question for us or the Braves.

[bluechipper]

Given that Miller's ace potential is still just that -- potential -- and he'd cost ~$25 mil in salary of the next 3 years anyway, plus surrendering talent in trade, I think I'd rather just look at free agents if the goal is to acquire an ace this winter.  I've heard speculation that Cueto or Zimmermann might have to settle for $125-150 mil with Price and Greinke leading the pack.

Given that Miller's ace potential is still just that -- potential -- and he'd cost ~$25 mil in salary of the next 3 years anyway, plus surrendering talent in trade, I think I'd rather just look at free agents if the goal is to acquire an ace this winter.  I've heard speculation that Cueto or Zimmermann might have to settle for $125-150 mil with Price and Greinke leading the pack.

I'd be very wary of giving Zimmerman $100M or more. Big decline last year and of course the switching leagues factor.

[tobi0040]

 

I'd be very wary of giving Zimmerman $100M or more. Big decline last year and of course the switching leagues factor.

 

The Twins aren't spending $100M on anyone this year.

 

Our base is $106m if we pick up all our arb guys (without Park).  Of the guys making serious money in arb-2 and arb-3, all will be brought back.  So I don't really see us going all in on a starter when we have bigger needs in the pen and guys like Berrios and May sitting around.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2015-payroll-salaries.shtml

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd be very wary of giving Zimmerman $100M or more. Big decline last year and of course the switching leagues factor.

Big decline?  By ERA+, Zimmermann was basically the same last year as he was in 2013 when he won 19 games and was an all-star.  By K/9, he was even better.

 

I probably shouldn't have grouped him in with Cueto, and shifted my preferred range to $100-$125 mil.  Zimmermann at $100 million would be an absolute steal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins aren't spending $100M on anyone this year.

Right.  But they also probably aren't trying to trade for an ace or potential ace, which was the premise of this thread.  IF they were trying to trade for such a pitcher, they might be better off forking over a $100+ mil contract instead given the names out there.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'd be very wary of giving Zimmerman $100M or more. Big decline last year and of course the switching leagues factor.

 

And average at best strikeout numbers.  The Twins already have that in spades.

[bluechipper]

 

Big decline?  By ERA+, Zimmermann was basically the same last year as he was in 2013 when he won 19 games and was an all-star.  By K/9, he was even better.

 

I probably shouldn't have grouped him in with Cueto, and shifted my preferred range to $100-$125 mil.  Zimmermann at $100 million would be an absolute steal.

Either way you look at it, a 3.66 ERA and 7.3 K/9 in the NL is mediocre at best. Good luck to whoever signs him for $100 million.

[biggentleben]

 

I think they should consider it. While he's not a top-tier ace, I think he's be very comparable to Sonny Gray, though. The only down side is the Twins starting rotation is already a bit crowded. He's similar to a 2014-Hughes or good-E. Santana. Probably not a high enough ceiling for the Twins to do it.

 

If they would do it ...

 

The Braves gave up Jason Heyward for Miller, so I'm guessing they would ask for quite a bit. It'd probably take at least one Top-15 prospect, maybe two. They just traded Simmons, so Polanco could probably headline the deal. They'll want pitching, so maybe either Stewart or Gonsalves or Jorge would be the other top prospect.

 

If that price is too high, maybe a Polanco + two other Top-25/30 prospects would work. If 3 players go, I'd hope the Twins would get an additional prospect, Top-20, back from the Braves.

 

The Braves' best prospect is a SS that is as close as Polanco. Polanco would not headline anything of "need" for the Braves.

[DaveW]

Shelby is the exact pitcher the Twins should be targeting, low risk and high upside. Anyone who says he is closer to a #3 is nuts! In two of his last 3 seasons he has started more than 31 games with an ERA lower than 3.10! His "bad" season was a 3.74 ERA, and he is only 25.

I would give up Kepler and another piece (someone in the 8-12 range in a heartbeat for him)

[biggentleben]

 

I think there is a good chance that Berrios is better than Miller right now.

 

Right now? C'mon now...that's some Twins colored glasses right there. He got crap in run support last year and it showed in his performances later in the year, but Shelby was one of the best pitchers in the entire league all season long - not at the Arrieta, Kershaw, Greinke level, but certainly in the next tier of 10-15 guys.

[DaveW]

 

Given that Miller's ace potential is still just that -- potential -- and he'd cost ~$25 mil in salary of the next 3 years anyway, plus surrendering talent in trade, I think I'd rather just look at free agents if the goal is to acquire an ace this winter.  I've heard speculation that Cueto or Zimmermann might have to settle for $125-150 mil with Price and Greinke leading the pack.

 

EDIT: $100-125 mil would be my preferred range, although if we were prioritizing an "ace" acquisition, pushing up to $150 mil for the right guy should be in consideration.

I'd be 100% for bringing in Cueto, Zimmerman? Put me at about 95% though I still think he is a great pitcher.

 

Miller I think is a good option as well, and a better "bet" for a move that Ryan and Co would actually make.

[DaveW]

 

Right now? C'mon now...that's some Twins colored glasses right there. He got crap in run support last year and it showed later in the year, but Shelby was one of the best pitchers in the entire league all season long - not at the Arrieta, Kershaw, Greinke level, but certainly in the next tier of 10-15 guys.

Sheesh, no kidding! The Berrios love has gone completely off the rails, people are in for a disappointment if they think Berrios is going to put up 3.02,3.74, 3.06 ERA's in his first three years.