Shelby Miller Trade

[bluechipper]

 

Sheesh, no kidding! The Berrios love has gone completely off the rails, people are in for a disappointment if they think Berrios is going to put up 3.02,3.74, 3.06 ERA's in his first three years.

So every other team's top pitching prospects can come up and dominate, but Berrios can't? He might not put up quite those numbers, but he doesn't have the benefit of pitching in the NL either.

[biggentleben]

My input was requested, so I'll oblige. I'd think it'd require a close-to-the-majors, high-upside guy or major league ready guy to headline the deal. The Braves quite literally just asked the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock to headline a deal for Miller. You're basically looking at Berrios, Sano, or Buxton headlining the deal or bust. Miller is the team's best trade chip, and they know it, so they're looking to line up bats for Miller (finally), so I would wager even if Berrios was moved in a Miller deal, it'd require significant bats moving to Atlanta as well along with Berrios.

 

Before you flip your lid too quickly, to gauge Miller's value, Arizona didn't say "hell no" to Pollock for Miller. They said "not yet" right now, and even tried to negotiate beyond just Pollock and Miller to add to the deal before saying no.

[biggentleben]

 

So every other team's top pitching prospects can come up and dominate, but Berrios can't? He might not put up quite those numbers, but he doesn't have the benefit of pitching in the NL either.

 

In the modern game, the difference between leagues on numbers is really not as heavy as it was, so downplaying numbers based on NL or AL is really odd, especially with the abundance of metrics that will easily show ballpark and league adjusted statistics to show the value of a guy.

[DaveW]

 

So every other team's top pitching prospects can come up and dominate, but Berrios can't? He might not put up quite those numbers, but he doesn't have the benefit of pitching in the NL either.

Um when did I ever say anything close to that? Most top pitching prospects don't come up and dominate and most never dominate at anypoint.

 

Shelby Miller has like 600 IP of very, very good results. That is my point, he is a known with some additional upside to boot, while Berrios is still very much an unknown.

 

The NL vs AL stuff tends to get blown out of proportion as well.

[tobi0040]

 

Right.  But they also probably aren't trying to trade for an ace or potential ace, which was the premise of this thread.  IF they were trying to trade for such a pitcher, they might be better off forking over a $100+ mil contract instead given the names out there.

 

You are preaching to the choir on this one.   But if one of those two things happen I would bet a trade but not for a top guy where we have to fork over a guy like Buxton.

[DaveW]

 

 

My input was requested, so I'll oblige. I'd think it'd require a close-to-the-majors, high-upside guy or major league ready guy to headline the deal. The Braves quite literally just asked the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock to headline a deal for Miller. You're basically looking at Berrios, Sano, or Buxton headlining the deal or bust. Miller is the team's best trade chip, and they know it, so they're looking to line up bats for Miller (finally), so I would wager even if Berrios was moved in a Miller deal, it'd require significant bats moving to Atlanta as well along with Berrios.

 

Before you flip your lid too quickly, to gauge Miller's value, Arizona didn't say "hell no" to Pollock for Miller. They said "not yet" right now, and even tried to negotiate beyond just Pollock and Miller to add to the deal before saying no.

Yeah, that sounds about right in terms of value, as mentioned I would gladly give up Kepler as a headliner along with some other pieces. Not sure I could pull the trigger on Sano and Buxton, Berrios for Miller straight up would be very intriguing for me to be honest.

[bluechipper]

 

In the modern game, the difference between leagues on numbers is really not as heavy as it was, so downplaying numbers based on NL or AL is really odd, especially with the abundance of metrics that will easily show ballpark and league adjusted statistics to show the value of a guy.

So a 3.82 career FIP is considered good now? That's what a top 20 prospect is worth?

[bluechipper]

 

Yeah, that sounds about right in terms of value, as mentioned I would gladly give up Kepler as a headliner along with some other pieces. Not sure I could pull the trigger on Sano and Buxton, Berrios for Miller straight up would be very intriguing for me to be honest.

"not sure" about Sano or Buxton? That would be a consideration for you?

[Vanimal46]

Calling Miller average is a little harsh, he was #25 overall in the MLB in WAR last year. Not a high strikeout guy which was already posted, but also doesn't give up the long ball (0.57 HR/9) 

I'm not completely sold on him to make a trade. My pipe dream is putting together all of our assets to acquire Jose Fernandez. 

[SwainZag]

 

Um when did I ever say anything close to that? Most top pitching prospects don't come up and dominate and most never dominate at anypoint.

 

Shelby Miller has like 600 IP of very, very good results. That is my point, he is a known with some additional upside to boot, while Berrios is still very much an unknown.

 

The NL vs AL stuff tends to get blown out of proportion as well.

 

3.82 Fip, 4.08 xFIP, 7.56 K/9 and 2.33 K/BB is very, very good results?  Outside of his ERA I really see nothing that blows me off the page, especially pitching in the NL.  Sano, Buxton or Berrios would be seemingly a steal.  What am I missing?  

 

He looks like he's basically a little bit better Kyle Gibson, someone who a lot of people have thrown out in several trade scenerios this offseason.

 

 

[DaveW]

 

3.82 Fip, 4.08 xFIP, 7.56 K/9 and 2.33 K/BB is very, very good results?  Outside of his ERA I really see nothing that blows me off the page, especially pitching in the NL.  Sano, Buxton or Berrios would be seemingly a steal.  What am I missing?  

 

He looks like he's basically a little bit better Kyle Gibson, someone who a lot of people have thrown out in several trade scenerios this offseason.

Meh, xFIP and FIP have there place, but when a guy has 600 IP and 3 seasons under his belt with a very good ERA, maybe its time to realize that his ERA is closer to what he is then his FIP or XFIP,  I'm a results guy, either Miller is a very good pitcher or he is the luckiest pitcher in baseball over the course of three years. I'm going with the former.

 

And he is a much better Kyle Gibson for many reasons. This is just another classic case of people falling in love with a stat xFIP without looking at the bigger picture.

[tobi0040]

 

3.82 Fip, 4.08 xFIP, 7.56 K/9 and 2.33 K/BB is very, very good results?  Outside of his ERA I really see nothing that blows me off the page, especially pitching in the NL.  Sano, Buxton or Berrios would be seemingly a steal.  What am I missing?  

 

He looks like he's basically a little bit better Kyle Gibson, someone who a lot of people have thrown out in several trade scenerios this offseason.

 

That career FIP is inflated by 2014's 4.54.

 

2013   3.04 ERA.  3.67 FIP.   122 ERA +

 

2015  3.02 ERA.   3.45 FIP.  124 ERA +

 

Those are pretty good numbers, especitally for 22-25 ages.

[Platoon]

I know variations of this have been said, but I have to say it anyway. The Twins already have too many starting pitchers. They would either have to:

 

1. Trade pitchers they shouldn't. In my nightmares.

2. Trade pitchers no one will take. In my dreams.

3. Eat the contracts of a couple and release them. I am holding my breath.

4. Use the BP to integrate as many as you can. The likely scenario.

 

Signing a FA pitcher simply exacerbates the problem. And likely leaves Berrios and Burdi in Rochester until Niagra Falls freezes over! The SP roster is a bubbling mess!

[tobi0040]

 

I know variations of this have been said, but I have to say it anyway. The Twins already have too many starting pitchers. They would either have to:

1. Trade pitchers they shouldn't. In my nightmares.
2. Trade pitchers no one will take. In my dreams.
3. Eat the contracts of a couple and release them. I am holding my breath.
4. Use the BP to integrate as many as you can. The likely scenario.

Signing a FA pitcher simply exacerbates the problem. And likely leaves Berrios and Burdi in Rochester until Niagra Falls freezes over! The SP roster is a bubbling mess!

 

A lot of truth here.  But if we added Shelby, I think he would be the second most talented pitcher we have behind Berrios.  So I will never argue with that kind of talent upgrade if the price isn't eggregious.

[TwinsTerritory]

Someone mentioned Jose Fernandez above and then I saw this on ESPN this morning:

 

"4. Minnesota Twins

No, you're not getting Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton, but could the Twins add Fernandez to go alongside Jose Berrios, who will debut early in 2016, to finally give them some strikeout arms in the rotation? If the Twins aren't willing to part with those three guys, a deal would have to start with outfielder/first baseman Max Kepler, who hit .322/.416/.531 at Double-A. Shortstop Nick Gordon, Minnesota's first-round pick in 2014, could be reunited with his older brother. Right-hander Kohl Stewart, another former first-round pick, didn't produce big numbers in Class A, but he's the kind of power arm the Marlins like to take chances on."

 

This was an article on trade fits for Fernandez.  Here is one time we shouldn't have to argue about whether the pitcher is an "ace" or not.  A healthy Fernandez is one of the 5-10 best pitchers in the game.  Like Miller, he also has 3 years of team control left.  He's a Boras client, so there is very little chance of a contract extension before free agency (and almost no chance of resigning him as a FA).  Would you be willing to part with Kepler, Stewart, and two top 30 prospects to rent Fernandez for 3 years?

[tobi0040]

 

Someone mentioned Jose Fernandez above and then I saw this on ESPN this morning:

 

"4. Minnesota Twins

No, you're not getting Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton, but could the Twins add Fernandez to go alongside Jose Berrios, who will debut early in 2016, to finally give them some strikeout arms in the rotation? If the Twins aren't willing to part with those three guys, a deal would have to start with outfielder/first baseman Max Kepler, who hit .322/.416/.531 at Double-A. Shortstop Nick Gordon, Minnesota's first-round pick in 2014, could be reunited with his older brother. Right-hander Kohl Stewart, another former first-round pick, didn't produce big numbers in Class A, but he's the kind of power arm the Marlins like to take chances on."

 

This was an article on trade fits for Fernandez.  Here is one time we shouldn't have to argue about whether the pitcher is an "ace" or not.  A healthy Fernandez is one of the 5-10 best pitchers in the game.  Like Miller, he also has 3 years of team control left.  He's a Boras client, so there is very little chance of a contract extension before free agency (and almost no chance of resigning him as a FA).  Would you be willing to part with Kepler, Stewart, and two top 30 prospects to rent Fernandez for 3 years?

 

Even if he is two year thing and a flip, I would give up Kepler, Gordon, and Kohl in a heartbeat.  I would argue we probably get something like Kepler back in two years anyway.

 

But I think a Fernandez trade nets a bigger name.

 

 

[ashbury]

Someone mentioned Jose Fernandez above and then I saw this on ESPN this morning:

There is an active thread on Fernandez in TD's Other Baseball forum.

[bluechipper]

A lot of truth here.  But if we added Shelby, I think he would be the second most talented pitcher we have behind Berrios.  So I will never argue with that kind of talent upgrade if the price isn't eggregious.

The price that many are throwing out is egregious though. Miller is a talented #3 starter, but he's not worth a top 50 type of prospect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A lot of truth here.  But if we added Shelby, I think he would be the second most talented pitcher we have behind Berrios.  So I will never argue with that kind of talent upgrade if the price isn't eggregious.

True, although any price could take assets away from a better upgrade.  (Hard to settle for Miller with dreams of Fernandez dancing around the forums )

[tobi0040]

 

The price that many are throwing out is egregious though. Miller is a talented #3 starter, but he's not worth a top 50 type of prospect.

 

If you view him as a #3, that price is high.  But in 2013 as a 22 year old he put up a WAR of 3.4, 33rd in the league.  Last year, as a 24 year old he put up a 3.6 WAR, 25th best.

 

Those numbers at those ages suggests to me that he is already better than a #3 starter with room to improve further.

[biggentleben]

 

If you view him as a #3, that price is high.  But in 2013 as a 22 year old he put up a WAR of 3.4, 33rd in the league.  Last year, as a 24 year old he put up a 3.6 WAR, 25th best.

 

Those numbers at those ages suggests to me that he is already better than a #3 starter with room to improve further.

 

And that is how Miller will be valued. Anything less is simply laughable.

[blairpaul715]

 

Shelby is the exact pitcher the Twins should be targeting, low risk and high upside. Anyone who says he is closer to a #3 is nuts! In two of his last 3 seasons he has started more than 31 games with an ERA lower than 3.10! His "bad" season was a 3.74 ERA, and he is only 25.

I would give up Kepler and another piece (someone in the 8-12 range in a heartbeat for him)

I almost agree with this, but I am too high on Kepler.......but count me as a big believer in Miller.

[blairpaul715]

 

Someone mentioned Jose Fernandez above and then I saw this on ESPN this morning:

 

"4. Minnesota Twins

No, you're not getting Miguel Sano or Byron Buxton, but could the Twins add Fernandez to go alongside Jose Berrios, who will debut early in 2016, to finally give them some strikeout arms in the rotation? If the Twins aren't willing to part with those three guys, a deal would have to start with outfielder/first baseman Max Kepler, who hit .322/.416/.531 at Double-A. Shortstop Nick Gordon, Minnesota's first-round pick in 2014, could be reunited with his older brother. Right-hander Kohl Stewart, another former first-round pick, didn't produce big numbers in Class A, but he's the kind of power arm the Marlins like to take chances on."

 

This was an article on trade fits for Fernandez.  Here is one time we shouldn't have to argue about whether the pitcher is an "ace" or not.  A healthy Fernandez is one of the 5-10 best pitchers in the game.  Like Miller, he also has 3 years of team control left.  He's a Boras client, so there is very little chance of a contract extension before free agency (and almost no chance of resigning him as a FA).  Would you be willing to part with Kepler, Stewart, and two top 30 prospects to rent Fernandez for 3 years?

I LOVE Fernandez, but my answer is NO, I would want the opportunity to be able to extend him and Boras wouldnt let that happen.........or would he now after TJ????