Twins trade rumors

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

to me the issue was the half step....they needed 2+ arms in the bullpen, and they gave up an asset to get one. Either you are trying to win, or you aren't. But half steps are the worst, imo.

That, and the Jepsen deal was only necessary because their big bullpen acquisition the previous winter was Tim Stauffer, plus retaining Duensing, Aaron Thompson, etc.

 

And we didn't give up Hu for just 28 innings of Jepsen -- we gave him up for those 28 innings plus the opportunity to pay Jepsen $5 mil for 2017 too for negative return.

 

Sign Neshek for 2/12 prior to 2015, and you don't need Jepsen at the deadline.

[diehardtwinsfan]

actually, we still would have   That pen was bad.  But yeah, your point stands. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks.  I just don't get the constant whining around here. I mean, if we're going to whine about losing a guy like Hu, we pretty much have to give up trading any prospects.  

I agree Hu isn't a great prospect, but he was still an asset we gave away unnecessarily (primarily because we didn't have the foresight to sign a better reliever).

 

I don't think he'd rank highly for the Twins or be vital to our future, but we could be talking about packaging him with our other modest assets to get a better return right now, if we hadn't been so cheap as to ignore our obvious bullpen needs entering 2015.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

actually, we still would have   That pen was bad.  But yeah, your point stands. 

Definitely agreed.  But with a guy like Neshek, the pen would have been better throughout the first half -- the need wouldn't have been quite so acute in July.  If we still wanted Jepsen, we could have afforded to play hardball with Tampa to get Jepsen cheaper (seriously, with $5 mil coming to him for 2016, I suspect Tampa wasn't far from letting him go just for salary relief, if not in July than at the end of the season if we were still interested in him).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Much like you gunnarthor, I'm not losing any sleep from last year's trade. The Twins got the best 28 innings of Jepsen's career in 2015. Hu would be an after thought with a vast majority of us if Jepsen didn't bottom out this season.

 

I'm ok with trading prospects but I will respectfully disagree with you on this one. Hu's stat line this year is virtually indistinguishable from Gonsalves, Jay, or Kohl Stewart's, and if Ryan had traded one of those other guys, the internet would have crashed.

 

All four are having good seasons this season. I will show you. Of those four, try guessing which is which just by comparing stat lines

 

Games pitched, IP, H, W, SO (includes all levels, per bbref)

 

12, 70.2 inn, 49 hits, 24:72 BB/K

14, 77.2 inn, 75 hits, 23:72 BB/K

12, 65.2 inn, 60 hits, 20:66 BB/K

14, 77.1 inn, 68 hits, 29:58 BB/K

[gunnarthor]

 

to me the issue was the half step....they needed 2+ arms in the bullpen, and they gave up an asset to get one. Either you are trying to win, or you aren't. But half steps are the worst, imo.

They didn't need 2+ arms.  They bullpen in Aug/Sept was a strength.  They didn't miss the playoffs by a few games because they didn't add a second bullpen piece.  They just weren't quite good enough overall.  Nothing wrong with that.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm ok with trading prospects but I will respectfully disagree with you on this one. Hu's stat line this year is virtually indistinguishable from Gonsalves, Jay, or Kohl Stewart's, and if Ryan had traded one of those other guys, the internet would have crashed.

All four are having good seasons this season. I will show you. Of those four, try guessing which is which just by comparing stat lines

Games pitched, IP, H, W, SO (includes all levels, per bbref)

12, 70.2 inn, 49 hits, 24:72 BB/K
14, 77.2 inn, 75 hits, 23:72 BB/K
12, 65.2 inn, 60 hits, 20:66 BB/K
14, 77.1 inn, 68 hits, 29:58 BB/K

And that's why you don't scout stat lines.  

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And that's why you don't scout stat lines.

 

Ha. I haven't seen any of those guys in person, but at some point performance on the field matters?

[Vanimal46]

 

That, and the Jepsen deal was only necessary because their big bullpen acquisition the previous winter was Tim Stauffer, plus retaining Duensing, Aaron Thompson, etc.

 

And we didn't give up Hu for just 28 innings of Jepsen -- we gave him up for those 28 innings plus the opportunity to pay Jepsen $5 mil for 2017 too for negative return.

 

Sign Neshek for 2/12 prior to 2015, and you don't need Jepsen at the deadline.

There is an argument that the Twins didn't do much to reinforce their bullpen in the off-season. I can agree with that. The reality is that's all they did, and we were clamoring for multiple bullpen arms in order to remain in contention. 

I think we all have players we wish the Twins would have signed. I could say sign OF Nelson Cruz for 4/60, and the Twins could package Rosario or Kepler with our modest assets to get a better return.

We can continue to go back in hindsight and mention other players that the Twins could have signed, or we can move on. 

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm ok with trading prospects but I will respectfully disagree with you on this one. Hu's stat line this year is virtually indistinguishable from Gonsalves, Jay, or Kohl Stewart's, and if Ryan had traded one of those other guys, the internet would have crashed.

All four are having good seasons this season. I will show you. Of those four, try guessing which is which just by comparing stat lines

Games pitched, IP, H, W, SO (includes all levels, per bbref)

12, 70.2 inn, 49 hits, 24:72 BB/K
14, 77.2 inn, 75 hits, 23:72 BB/K
12, 65.2 inn, 60 hits, 20:66 BB/K
14, 77.1 inn, 68 hits, 29:58 BB/K

The internet crashes when Zach Jones was left unprotected from the Rule 5 draft... I think we can start to move on from Hu. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is an argument that the Twins didn't do much to reinforce their bullpen in the off-season. I can agree with that. The reality is that's all they did, and we were clamoring for multiple bullpen arms in order to remain in contention. 

I think we all have players we wish the Twins would have signed. I could say sign OF Nelson Cruz for 4/60, and the Twins could package Rosario or Kepler with our modest assets to get a better return.

We can continue to go back in hindsight and mention other players that the Twins could have signed, or we can move on. 

 

It's not hindsight when people said it at that the time......

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I agree Hu isn't a great prospect, but he was still an asset we gave away unnecessarily (primarily because we didn't have the foresight to sign a better reliever).

 

I don't think he'd rank highly for the Twins or be vital to our future, but we could be talking about packaging him with our other modest assets to get a better return right now, if we hadn't been so cheap as to ignore our obvious bullpen needs entering 2015.

The same can be said for any of our starting pitchers in the minors. They are assets but not great prospects, and probably not vital to our future. See stat comparison above just as an example.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The internet crashes when Zach Jones was left unprotected from the Rule 5 draft... I think we can start to move on from Hu.

 

I've moved on from Hu, but it's just weird how people reflexively dismiss Hu and yet salivate over the other guys, when you could argue they are all basically the same. Why is that?

[gunnarthor]

 

Ha. I haven't seen any of those guys in person, but at some point performance on the field matters?

Sure but performance in AA shouldn't out weigh your internal analysis of what the player will become.  We don't know how the Twins view those pitchers but pretty much all external rankings had Hu as the lowest pitcher, despite his (at the time) more impressive numbers.

 

I think a lot of Hu's charm was a way to attack Stewart, who wasn't putting up those numbers and proof that the Twins blew that pick.  That Hu was so lowly regarded and Stewart was not bothered a group of people.

[gunnarthor]

 

I've moved on from Hu, but it's just weird how people reflexively dismiss Hu and yet salivate over the other guys, when you could argue they are all basically the same. Why is that?

Because they are all not the same. Coming into the season, we had 4 pitchers whose stuff could be front of the rotation starters (five if you count Thorpe) - Meyer, Stewart, Jay and Berrios.  They had a couple other starters who could be in the middle - like Gonsalves - and a few more back of the rotation types like Jorge.  Hu would fit into that last group.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Because they are all not the same. Coming into the season, we had 4 pitchers whose stuff could be front of the rotation starters (five if you count Thorpe) - Meyer, Stewart, Jay and Berrios.  They had a couple other starters who could be in the middle - like Gonsalves - and a few more back of the rotation types like Jorge.  Hu would fit into that last group.

 

I'm curious how you know that, since we can't scout them. I have no idea, btw.

[jorgenswest]

I'm ok with trading prospects but I will respectfully disagree with you on this one. Hu's stat line this year is virtually indistinguishable from Gonsalves, Jay, or Kohl Stewart's, and if Ryan had traded one of those other guys, the internet would have crashed.

All four are having good seasons this season. I will show you. Of those four, try guessing which is which just by comparing stat lines

Games pitched, IP, H, W, SO (includes all levels, per bbref)

12, 70.2 inn, 49 hits, 24:72 BB/K

14, 77.2 inn, 75 hits, 23:72 BB/K

12, 65.2 inn, 60 hits, 20:66 BB/K

14, 77.1 inn, 68 hits, 29:58 BB/K

I doubt there is much meaning in those minor league numbers.

 

What is the velocity? Does it maintain through 100 pitches? Which pitches are getting the swings and misses? Will those same pitches generate swings and misses at the major league level? Does the pitcher have command as well as control?

 

Liam Hendriks had great stat lines.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sure but performance in AA shouldn't out weigh your internal analysis of what the player will become.  We don't know how the Twins view those pitchers but pretty much all external rankings had Hu as the lowest pitcher, despite his (at the time) more impressive numbers.

 

I think a lot of Hu's charm was a way to attack Stewart, who wasn't putting up those numbers and proof that the Twins blew that pick.  That Hu was so lowly regarded and Stewart was not bothered a group of people.

Agree, and of course the high draft picks will naturally get more hype. But I really like Gonsalves amd how the Twins have pushed him up. We might even see him next year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I doubt there is much meaning in those minor league numbers.

What is the velocity? Does it maintain through 100 pitches? Which pitches are getting the swings and misses? Will those same pitches generate swings and misses at the major league level? Does the pitcher have command as well as control?

Liam Hendriks had great stat lines.

Well, sure. That data would be interesting to see if it was readily available. Do you have it? More than the actual stat lines, I just can't get on board with the prevailing idea that Hu has so little going for him while the other guys are so highly regarded.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'm curious how you know that, since we can't scout them. I have no idea, btw.

It's based on what the external prospect reviews of the players said.  mlb.com, Klaw, BA, fangraphs, BP etc.  

[jorgenswest]

Well, sure. That data would be interesting to see if it was readily available. Do you have it? More than the actual stat lines, I just can't get on board with the prevailing idea that Hu has so little going for him while the other guys are so highly regarded.

Without actually seeing the pitchers or having pitch level data, it is not possible to compare. Any argument using the data would have little meaning. The best we have is the scouting reports from groups that see players from all organizations.

 

I am not sure that Gonsalves is highly regarded either. There was question about how his stuff would play beyond A ball.

 

If the Twins were contending for the playoffs and needing to trade for late inning relief this year, Gonsalves would be a reasonable and expected cost.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's based on what the external prospect reviews of the players said.  mlb.com, Klaw, BA, fangraphs, BP etc.  

 

thanks. KLAW likes Hu, btw. Never seen him say he's going to be a star, but he does like him.

 

from a recent article:

 

"like most of teh Taiwanese pitching prospects we've seen before, he has a wide range of pitches and good control. He touches 95 (my comment....so, ya, he can throw hard) but lacks anything that's a clear swing and miss weapon just yet, although his changeup has promise."

[tobi0040]

The issue with the Jepsen and even Ramos trade is that the relative cost of bullpen arms is not huge. We are almost always in need of them when we are halfway decent. So instead of proactively signing them in the offseason this ownership/GM combination takes a wait and see how we are in July approach, then gives up assets for them.

 

Heck, if you want you to add a guy that is good but overpaid you can usually do that without giving up prospects/talent too. Like K Rod for example.

[tobi0040]

This league is like a 30 person poker game that meets a few times a year. The good players, Giants, Boston, Cardinals, etc. don’t take first place every year. But they do on a somewhat consistent basis and rarely finish outside the top 10 or 15. They realize things like you don’t trade young catchers or starting pitchers for relief pitchers.

 

The Twins have been getting booted early each game and likely go home complaining about how they just weren’t getting good cards.

[davidc3915]

 

I said Mauer should want to be traded, not that the twins will look to trade him.    The future hypothetical signing of Mauer would strictly be a PR move, which is something the Twins are known for.

In this scenario Mauer would leave for a couple years, them come back for a "victory lap season" ala Torii Hunter?  This is something the Twins would 100% do

[davidc3915]

 

I said Mauer should want to be traded, not that the twins will look to trade him.    The future hypothetical signing of Mauer would strictly be a PR move, which is something the Twins are known for.

In this scenario Mauer would leave for a couple years, them come back for a "victory lap season" ala Torii Hunter?  This is something the Twins would 100% do

[Vanimal46]

 

I've moved on from Hu, but it's just weird how people reflexively dismiss Hu and yet salivate over the other guys, when you could argue they are all basically the same. Why is that?

Not sure. Like you, I don't get the opportunity to see any of these prospects play until they make it to the MLB. We read about their success/failures on this website, or go to outside resources to read scouting reports. Some we just want to believe they'll be great! Projecting prospects' ceilings and where they'll end up on the totem pole is one of the hardest things to do consistently.

 

[jud6312]

 

Santana DFA'ed? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They didn't need 2+ arms.  They bullpen in Aug/Sept was a strength.  They didn't miss the playoffs by a few games because they didn't add a second bullpen piece.  They just weren't quite good enough overall.  Nothing wrong with that.

The bullpen in late August saw us rely on O'Rourke and Graham in a close game against the Yankees (with predictable results), AJ Achter got a chance to blow a lead in September, and we were still trying to salvage something from Perkins in the season's final week -- not sure if that pen was really a "strength."

 

I think the Jepsen addition was too little, too late if we weren't 100% committed to May in the pen (we weren't, we pulled him for a week in August for a spot start).  But even best case, it was unnecessary because we knew about our bullpen needs before the season even began.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There is an argument that the Twins didn't do much to reinforce their bullpen in the off-season. I can agree with that. The reality is that's all they did, and we were clamoring for multiple bullpen arms in order to remain in contention. 

I think we all have players we wish the Twins would have signed. I could say sign OF Nelson Cruz for 4/60, and the Twins could package Rosario or Kepler with our modest assets to get a better return.

We can continue to go back in hindsight and mention other players that the Twins could have signed, or we can move on. 

I thought it was pretty relevant to the point?  Jepsen type relievers are not that expensive or hard to sign in free agency.  The Twins have repeatedly passed on doing so, and were stuck trying to desperately fill a need in late July 2015.  So they likely overpaid, and gave up a trade asset they wouldn't have otherwise.