No love for FO at the Sporting News

[tobi0040]

Uh, I'm not knocking the move.....I'm saying that it is a bit hard to declare the Twins the clear winners....especially since they couldn't fix CF for years either.....

That is fair

[gil4]

 

Don't want to put words in his mouth but pretty sure that was a joke related to the fact that the Cubs haven't won a World Series since before the Great War. I chuckled anyway.

Or, to quote one of my favorite baseball songs (A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request) :

 

The last time the Cubs won a National League pennant

Was the year we dropped the bomb on Japan

 

They sure are in danger of ruining that song. 

[wsnydes]

 

Or, to quote one of my favorite baseball songs (A Dying Cub Fan's Last Request) :

 

The last time the Cubs won a National League pennant

Was the year we dropped the bomb on Japan

 

They sure are in danger of ruining that song. 

As a kid growing up in southeastern Iowa, my dad is naturally a big Cardinals fan.  They've been my NL team for as long as I can remember.  I remember playing that song for my dad for the first time.  He was crying he was laughing so hard.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I also think Revere's WAR is inflated because I don't think dWAR penalizes a player for a weak arm, i.e. runners constantly advancing on them. So Revere's 1 WAR per season is likely a high estimate.

This is incorrect.  WAR includes an outfield arm component.  At B-Ref, you can see that mentioned when hovering over the Rfield column header, and at Fangraphs, it's also itemized as "rARM" (DRS, I think) and ARM (UZR version) under "Advanced Fielding."  Revere scores negative in both for his career, offsetting some of his positive defensive components.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4712&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

 

EDIT: It appears B-Ref itemizes it too, as "Rof" (from both BIS and TZ data sources) on the advanced fielding stats page:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01-field.shtml#advanced_fielding::none

[Platoon]

Christmas.

April Fools Day?

[Platoon]

Christmas.

April Fools Day?

Don't forget St. Swithin's Day. One month from today!

Thath eethy for you to thay.

[Jham]

 

I would argue our fascination in the draft with high school outfielders and relief pitchers has played a role in why we needed to go into the free agent market and find starting pitchers. Heck, we used our 2007, 2008, and 2012 first round picks on a CF. Then when we had one of the biggest trade chips in franchise history (Johan), we targeted another CF.

And the first round picks we have used on starters were either total whiffs, and/or we aimed for back of the rotation types like Wimmers and Perkins.

Then I would also argue that our fascination in drafting toolsey HS outfielders and relief pitchers also helped us build one of the top 2 farm systems in baseball as ranked as recently as last season.  Why isn't the ranking translating to more big league wins?  Either the rankings are wrong.  (I would suggest they were too strongly based on prior rankings and the Buxton/Sano effect).  Or the players are poorly developed.  (I tend toward this explanation).  Or the prospects aren't ready yet and we need to wait for them to develop.  (We've seen too little progress from other players up several years ago to believe this).  

I do think Buxton and Sano were overrated by many despite fairly glaring holes in their games.  Sano has never hit for average, and according to scouts who watched him play more than a handful of games at third, was no where near good enough to play third.  Buxton is a gangly herky jerky hitter with a less than classic swing and front foot hitting style.  Buxton loses bat speed and timing when he tries to shorten up.  Meyer is wild.  May is inconsistent.  Duffey is good but is surviving without a third pitch.  Rosario swings at everything.  Arcia bicycle kicks baseballs in the outfield.  Kepler looks over-matched.  At some point it's not about patience.  It's about better coaching, scouting, and development.  And IF the rankings are indeed inflated, we should have known that more than anyone and looked to trade for more and better while we could.  The team hoards mediocre prospects because we can't tell them from busts and stars.  So we have out-of-option guys clogging the roster, back-up plans having to play every day, and bad contracts because our pitching prospects aren't ready yet, and anything better than Mike Pelfrey requires over-payment.

[tobi0040]

Then I would also argue that our fascination in drafting toolsey HS outfielders and relief pitchers also helped us build one of the top 2 farm systems in baseball as ranked as recently as last season. Why isn't the ranking translating to more big league wins? Either the rankings are wrong. (I would suggest they were too strongly based on prior rankings and the Buxton/Sano effect). Or the players are poorly developed. (I tend toward this explanation). Or the prospects aren't ready yet and we need to wait for them to develop. (We've seen too little progress from other players up several years ago to believe this).

 

I do think Buxton and Sano were overrated by many despite fairly glaring holes in their games. Sano has never hit for average, and according to scouts who watched him play more than a handful of games at third, was no where near good enough to play third. Buxton is a gangly herky jerky hitter with a less than classic swing and front foot hitting style. Buxton loses bat speed and timing when he tries to shorten up. Meyer is wild. May is inconsistent. Duffey is good but is surviving without a third pitch. Rosario swings at everything. Arcia bicycle kicks baseballs in the outfield. Kepler looks over-matched. At some point it's not about patience. It's about better coaching, scouting, and development. And IF the rankings are indeed inflated, we should have known that more than anyone and looked to trade for more and better while we could. The team hoards mediocre prospects because we can't tell them from busts and stars. So we have out-of-option guys clogging the roster, back-up plans having to play every day, and bad contracts because our pitching prospects aren't ready yet, and anything better than Mike Pelfrey requires over-payment.

I think you are spot on with the development side.

 

I would simply suggest that the relievers have not contributed to that ranking. If you look at the resources spent on relievers, first rounders (Gutierrez), comp picks, second rounders, etc we have very little to show for that.

[alskntwnsfn]

There are teams which are ahead of the curve and teams behind it, then there's 50 feet of crap... then there's us.

[RedBull34]

IDK, That the D-Backs, Padres, and Marlins (Seriously, the Marlins) aren't below the Twins is suspect.

 

I think the Twins are in the 20-25 range.  Bad, below average, but at least TR's moves have not handcuffed us for the future.  It's not like a brilliant GM couldn't come in here and start fixing things.  There is clearly enough talent for that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

IDK, That the D-Backs, Padres, and Marlins (Seriously, the Marlins) aren't below the Twins is suspect.

 

I think the Twins are in the 20-25 range.  Bad, below average, but at least TR's moves have not handcuffed us for the future.  It's not like a brilliant GM couldn't come in here and start fixing things.  There is clearly enough talent for that.

Are the D-Backs, Padres, and Marlins handcuffed for the future?  Based on projected payrolls, San Diego certainly isn't, and Arizona has a similar projected payroll but with one guy (Greinke) on top of it.  The Marlins future payrolls look a little worse, but again most of that is one guy (Stanton), and to their credit they are in the thick of the playoff race this year, so they are getting some present-day benefit.

 

And all 3 of those teams have changed GMs within the past 2 years.

 

In any case, I wouldn't get too hung up on the exact ranking.  All of those teams are in the bottom third of these rankings, which should put any of them on thin ice when seasons like the Twins 2016 (or stretches like the Twins 2011-2014) happen.

[RedBull34]

 

Are the D-Backs, Padres, and Marlins handcuffed for the future?  Based on projected payrolls, San Diego certainly isn't, and Arizona has a similar projected payroll but with one guy (Greinke) on top of it.  The Marlins future payrolls look a little worse, but again most of that is one guy (Stanton), and to their credit they are in the thick of the playoff race this year, so they are getting some present-day benefit.

 

And all 3 of those teams have changed GMs within the past 2 years.

 

In any case, I wouldn't get too hung up on the exact ranking.  All of those teams are in the bottom third of these rankings, which should put any of them on thin ice when seasons like the Twins 2016 (or stretches like the Twins 2011-2014) happen.

I'm not too bothered, but by 'handcuffed' I meant these are small market (or not big anyways) teams that traded away a great deal of their minor league talent and emptied their system.  Probably the wrong word.  And by those two teams (Friars and D-Backs) it was their new GM's who committed the crime.

 

And the Marlins side is more directed at their owner.  I'm not sure if they were including them in their FO rankings.  If success is to be dictated by their chances of winning the pennant, I don't like theirs at all for years to come.  Pythag has them with a losing record right now as well.

 

[drivlikejehu]

I'm not sure I really understand why the Twins would rank ahead of teams that win more with lower payrolls, over a 5+ year stretch of time. I'll take that track record over subjective views of how clubs are set up for the future, especially since the Twins are set to continue losing horribly for years to come.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not too bothered, but by 'handcuffed' I meant these are small market (or not big anyways) teams that traded away a great deal of their minor league talent and emptied their system. Probably the wrong word. And by those two teams (Friars and D-Backs) it was their new GM's who committed the crime.

 

And the Marlins side is more directed at their owner. I'm not sure if they were including them in their FO rankings. If success is to be dictated by their chances of winning the pennant, I don't like theirs at all for years to come. Pythag has them with a losing record right now as well.

Fair enough. I think some of the "prospect sacrifice" by those clubs has been overrated, though -- San Diego did give up Trea Turner, and Arizona Dansby Swanson -- good prospects, but probably not enough to really handcuff them. San Diego in particular restocked a bit already with the Kimbrel deal.

 

No doubt Loria is among the worst owners, but generally the Marlins baseball people have been pretty well regarded.

[lukeduke1980]

 

IDK, That the D-Backs, Padres, and Marlins (Seriously, the Marlins) aren't below the Twins is suspect.

 

I think the Twins are in the 20-25 range.  Bad, below average, but at least TR's moves have not handcuffed us for the future.  It's not like a brilliant GM couldn't come in here and start fixing things.  There is clearly enough talent for that

We heard for the last 5 years that the future is now.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Fair enough. I think some of the "prospect sacrifice" by those clubs has been overrated, though -- San Diego did give up Trea Turner, and Arizona Dansby Swanson -- good prospects, but probably not enough to really handcuff them. San Diego in particular restocked a bit already with the Kimbrel deal.

No doubt Loria is among the worst owners, but generally the Marlins baseball people have been pretty well regarded.

 

"good" prospects? Swanson is a top prospect in all the game, and Turner should be the starting SS for the Nats right now. Either of them would be in the mix for top Twins prospect, even with Buxton and Berrios in the system.

 

I do think AZ might be worse the Ryan, but arguably, they are a much better team now, even with one of the (maybe) 10 best players in the game hurt for the year.

[jimmer]

 

"good" prospects? Swanson is a top prospect in all the game, and Turner should be the starting SS for the Nats right now. Either of them would be in the mix for top Twins prospect, even with Buxton and Berrios in the system.

 

I do think AZ might be worse the Ryan, but arguably, they are a much better team now, even with one of the (maybe) 10 best players in the game hurt for the year.

I have zero issue with saying the worst FO in MLB is Dave Stewart and Co. 

[tobi0040]

Houston is the only team with fewer losses over the last five years and will likely jump us this year. They went young and committed to a rebuild.

 

They have for the most part seen their young prospects pan out too.

 

I honestly don't see a FO that can definitively say is worse than us. And there is just no way you can find five.

[old nurse]

 

Fair enough. I think some of the "prospect sacrifice" by those clubs has been overrated, though -- San Diego did give up Trea Turner, and Arizona Dansby Swanson -- good prospects, but probably not enough to really handcuff them. San Diego in particular restocked a bit already with the Kimbrel deal.

No doubt Loria is among the worst owners, but generally the Marlins baseball people have been pretty well regarded.

San Diego does not have more than a few B prospects, not much immanent help

[old nurse]

 

Houston is the only team with fewer losses over the last five years and will likely jump us this year. They went young and committed to a rebuild.

They have for the most part seen their young prospects pan out too.

I honestly don't see a FO that can definitively say is worse than us. And there is just no way you can find five.

Atlanta, Arizona, Cincinnati , Colorado, Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee, and San Diego,

[tobi0040]

Atlanta, Arizona, Cincinnati , Colorado, Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee, and San Diego,

All have more wins over the last five years. Seems like a reasonable metric. Trajectory? Tough to make a case there too

[old nurse]

 

All have more wins over the last five years. Seems like a reasonable metric. Trajectory? Tough to make a case there too

Expectations and outcomes, so it depends on which eye you look with.. Trajectory of an obloid is difficult to ascertain with imperfect throws.

[alarp33]

 

Atlanta, Arizona, Cincinnati , Colorado, Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee, and San Diego,

 

FIFY

 

I believe Atlanta, Milwaukee and Detroit all have brand new front offices, so its odd you think the Twins are just better by default... Atlanta's in particular has done a phenomenal job over the past year rebuilding an awful farm system... The Swanson for Shelby Miller deal might go down as one of the biggest ripoffs in 20 years

[Major League Ready]

I would not have a problem with cleaning out the front office but the people who love to speak of the complete ineptitude of our FO office should consider where we would be if the FO who had followed some of the moves promoted and supported here over the last couple years.

 

Troy Tulowitzki had an OPS+ of 90 in 2015 and 80 so far this year.  What a nightmare it would be to have that $109M on the books not to mention the discussion here was giving up a couple top prospects.  Escobar outplayed Tulo last year and Nunez is outplaying him this year for a fraction of the money not to mention the prospects that posters here said they would give up for him. 

 

Jacoby Ellsbury with a 663 OPS in 2015.  He has been pretty decent this year with an ops of 772 but he has not been worth $21M/yr and what a mess it would be to have that contract on the books for the next 6.5 years.  We would in all likelihood have 2-4 years at 21M where a league minimum player would outperform him.  

 

Matt Garza had an ERA+ last year of 70 last year and has 4 IPs this year.

 

How about the LH relievers @ 6M/yr on multi year contracts?  Antonio Bastardo has a FIP of 5.32.  Tony Sipp has a FIP of 5.02 although is ERA is a much more respectable 3.22

Tyler Clippard, another $6M/yr reliever who also promoted here.  His FIP mediocre at 4.6.

 

Abad has a FIP of 1.99 and 2 more years of control with arbitration.

How about those who suggested we swap Nolasco for Shields and throw in prospects.  Shields FIP is 4.42.  Nolasco’s is 3.47.  Neither one of them is an asset but at least we only have one more year of Nolasco at $12M instead of 2 years and $42M.

 

How about trading top prospects for 2 years of Lucroy.  He is having a great year and would have been a huge upgrade but we would have trade our future to add a couple wins to a team that has a couple years of growing up to do.  These moves that were supported rigorously here would have devastated this team’s future.

 

The team has made 3 deals that make me scratch my head, the extensions for Hughes and Perkins, and to a lesser degree, Hicks for Murphy.  The team has been bad for an extended period.  The question IMO is has this period been abnormally long and has the FO positioned the team to be good for an extended period.  That's how I would determine if sweeping changes were necessary or perhaps a couple key changes to leadership and/or scouting/development.

[alarp33]

 

I would not have a problem with cleaning out the front office but the people who love to speak of the complete ineptitude of our FO office should consider where we would be if the FO who had followed some of the moves promoted and supported here over the last couple years.

 

Troy Tulowitzki had an OPS+ of 90 in 2015 and 80 so far this year.  What a nightmare it would be to have that $109M on the books not to mention the discussion here was giving up a couple top prospects.  Escobar outplayed Tulo last year and Nunez is outplaying him this year for a fraction of the money not to mention the prospects that posters here said they would give up for him. 

 

Jacoby Ellsbury with a 663 OPS in 2015.  He has been pretty decent this year with an ops of 772 but he has not been worth $21M/yr and what a mess it would be to have that contract on the books for the next 6.5 years.  We would in all likelihood have 2-4 years at 21M where a league minimum player would outperform him.  

 

Matt Garza had an ERA+ last year of 70 last year and has 4 IPs this year.

 

How about the LH relievers @ 6M/yr on multi year contracts?  Antonio Bastardo has a FIP of 5.32.  Tony Sipp has a FIP of 5.02 although is ERA is a much more respectable 3.22

Tyler Clippard, another $6M/yr reliever who also promoted here.  His FIP mediocre at 4.6.

 

Abad has a FIP of 1.99 and 2 more years of control with arbitration.

How about those who suggested we swap Nolasco for Shields and throw in prospects.  Shields FIP is 4.42.  Nolasco’s is 3.47.  Neither one of them is an asset but at least we only have one more year of Nolasco at $12M instead of 2 years and $42M.

 

How about trading top prospects for 2 years of Lucroy.  He is having a great year and would have been a huge upgrade but we would have trade our future to add a couple wins to a team that has a couple years of growing up to do.  These moves that were supported rigorously here would have devastated this team’s future.

 

Terry Ryan has been in charge for almost 20 years and won exactly one 5 game playoff series 14 years ago, but thank God he never threw random ideas around on a message board.  The Twins could be looking at something worse than a 20-45 record!

[tobi0040]

I would not have a problem with cleaning out the front office but the people who love to speak of the complete ineptitude of our FO office should consider where we would be if the FO who had followed some of the moves promoted and supported here over the last couple years.

 

Troy Tulowitzki had an OPS+ of 90 in 2015 and 80 so far this year.  What a nightmare it would be to have that $109M on the books not to mention the discussion here was giving up a couple top prospects.  Escobar outplayed Tulo last year and Nunez is outplaying him this year for a fraction of the money not to mention the prospects that posters here said they would give up for him. 

 

Jacoby Ellsbury with a 663 OPS in 2015.  He has been pretty decent this year with an ops of 772 but he has not been worth $21M/yr and what a mess it would be to have that contract on the books for the next 6.5 years.  We would in all likelihood have 2-4 years at 21M where a league minimum player would outperform him.  

 

Matt Garza had an ERA+ last year of 70 last year and has 4 IPs this year.

 

How about the LH relievers @ 6M/yr on multi year contracts?  Antonio Bastardo has a FIP of 5.32.  Tony Sipp has a FIP of 5.02 although is ERA is a much more respectable 3.22

Tyler Clippard, another $6M/yr reliever who also promoted here.  His FIP mediocre at 4.6.

 

Abad has a FIP of 1.99 and 2 more years of control with arbitration.

How about those who suggested we swap Nolasco for Shields and throw in prospects.  Shields FIP is 4.42.  Nolasco’s is 3.47.  Neither one of them is an asset but at least we only have one more year of Nolasco at $12M instead of 2 years and $42M.

 

How about trading top prospects for 2 years of Lucroy.  He is having a great year and would have been a huge upgrade but we would have trade our future to add a couple wins to a team that has a couple years of growing up to do.  These moves that were supported rigorously here would have devastated this team’s future.

 

The team has made 3 deals that make me scratch my head, the extensions for Hughes and Perkins, and to a lesser degree, Hicks for Murphy.  The team has been bad for an extended period.  The question IMO is has this period been abnormally long and has the FO positioned the team to be good for an extended period.  That's how I would determine if sweeping changes were necessary or perhaps a couple key changes to leadership and/or scouting/development.

I think you are painting a really broad brush here. I don’t ever recall anyone saying we should go after Jacoby Ellsbury. Maybe some did, but it was not a huge thread with a lot of support. If it was I would be pretty surprised to miss it completely. Some got excited about Tulo, but that was not everyone here. Most also thought any move for Tulo would require Colorado taking a bunch of money back. If memory serves, that is basically what happened as the Rockies took Jose Reyes back (who they just cut and are eating $40M).

 

Regarding relievers, not many were up and arms about signing Abad. They were up and arms that signing Abad was the only move we made. My choice all along was Steve Cishek. He signed for 2-10 and is currently closing for the Mariners with a 2.70 ERA and a sub 1.00 WHIP. There is was no reason why we could not have done that move and signed Abad.

 

What ends up happening on this site every time a name gets thrown around is half the people say we should go after a guy (like Tulo or Lucroy). Then the other half say it would take Buxton or Berrios. Then the guy ends up getting traded for a lot less than everyone speculates. It has happened time and time again. My memory of both Tulo and Lucroy is basically the same. Some wanted him, everyone said it would cost too much. Very few supported a key piece like Buxton, Berrios, Jay, or Sano being moved for him. Obviously Lucroy has not been moved so we don’t know the exact price.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would not have a problem with cleaning out the front office but the people who love to speak of the complete ineptitude of our FO office should consider where we would be if the FO who had followed some of the moves promoted and supported here over the last couple years.

........

 

The team has made 3 deals that make me scratch my head, the extensions for Hughes and Perkins, and to a lesser degree, Hicks for Murphy.  The team has been bad for an extended period.  The question IMO is has this period been abnormally long and has the FO positioned the team to be good for an extended period.  That's how I would determine if sweeping changes were necessary or perhaps a couple key changes to leadership and/or scouting/development.

 

What is "normally" long? Because they won't be in the playoffs next year, I don't think any team that lost 100 games made the playoffs the next year.

 

What about hiring a manager with zero managing experience, who shows pretty much every night he struggles with tactics, you good with that decision?

 

Yup, lots of ideas that over 100 people throw out to have fun conversations don't work out. It's true. But, no one here is calling for anyone on this board to be the GM. If all a GM has to do is be better than the random fans here, well, that's a low bar probably.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Troy Tulowitzki had an OPS+ of 90 in 2015 and 80 so far this year.  What a nightmare it would be to have that $109M on the books not to mention the discussion here was giving up a couple top prospects.

The Blue Jays only took on ~$53 mil in extra salary obligations in that trade.  Saying the Twins would have had to take on the full $109 mil is disingenuous at best (as is claiming "a couple top prospects" were offered -- I think the discussion was primarily centered around Gibson, plus perhaps one good prospect but likely not Sano/Buxton/Berrios).

 

 

Jacoby Ellsbury with a 663 OPS in 2015.  He has been pretty decent this year with an ops of 772 but he has not been worth $21M/yr and what a mess it would be to have that contract on the books for the next 6.5 years.  We would in all likelihood have 2-4 years at 21M where a league minimum player would outperform him.  

 

Pretty sure Ellsbury was primarily advocated by one dude on this board.  And Ellsbury is only under contract for 4.5 more years, not 6.5 as you state.  (I am noticing a pattern of exaggeration...)

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Blue Jays only took on ~$53 mil in extra salary obligations in that trade.  Saying the Twins would have had to take on the full $109 mil is disingenuous at best (as is claiming "a couple top prospects" were offered -- I think the discussion was primarily centered around Gibson, plus perhaps one good prospect but likely not Sano/Buxton/Berrios).

 

 

 

Pretty sure Ellsbury was primarily advocated by one dude on this board.  And Ellsbury is only under contract for 4.5 more years, not 6.5 as you state.  (I am noticing a pattern of exaggeration...)

 

Guilty.....I was the ONLY one that wanted him.....everyone else said I was an idiot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Matt Garza had an ERA+ last year of 70 last year and has 4 IPs this year.

One good year, one bad year, and nothing meaningful so far in 2016 -- better than Nolasco and not meaningfully different than Hughes.  Garza has the same remaining guarantee as Nolasco, and much less than Hughes.

 

 

How about those who suggested we swap Nolasco for Shields and throw in prospects.  Shields FIP is 4.42.  Nolasco’s is 3.47.  Neither one of them is an asset but at least we only have one more year of Nolasco at $12M instead of 2 years and $42M.

 

Like Tulo, Shields was dealt with a ton of salary relief (~$31 mil).  Nobody is on the hook for $42 million for Shields after this year.  And as I recall the consensus about what "prospects" to offer San Diego was pretty light, probably no more than what the White Sox gave up.