No love for FO at the Sporting News

[wsnydes]

 

FIFY

 

I believe Atlanta, Milwaukee and Detroit all have brand new front offices, so its odd you think the Twins are just better by default... Atlanta's in particular has done a phenomenal job over the past year rebuilding an awful farm system... The Swanson for Shelby Miller deal might go down as one of the biggest ripoffs in 20 years

I agree on the Swanson deal.  That has the looks of a fleecing.  

 

I believe Detroit has a handful of massive contracts that could really hamper them at any time now.  I believe they're all on the previous regime though.  Between aging and injuries, several of those could be significant especially if ownership decides to tighten the finances.

[wsnydes]

 

Guilty.....I was the ONLY one that wanted him.....everyone else said I was an idiot.

BURN THE WITCH!!! 

[alarp33]

 

I agree on the Swanson deal.  That has the looks of a fleecing.  

 

I believe Detroit has a handful of massive contracts that could really hamper them at any time now.  I believe they're all on the previous regime though.  Between aging and injuries, several of those could be significant especially if ownership decides to tighten the finances.

 

A team like Detroit almost deserves their own category. It's pretty clear they have an owner who won't be around for much longer, and forced his GM's to spend his money.  Anaheim is another one that had an owner demanding to spend money

[wsnydes]

 

A team like Detroit almost deserves their own category. It's pretty clear they have an owner who won't be around for much longer, and forced his GM's to spend his money.  Anaheim is another one that had an owner demanding to spend money

That is exactly where I was going with that.  They could come through unscathed, but there is potential for disaster there.  I'm thinking Cubs prior to Theo bad.  Loaded with big, bad contracts that they can't move.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How about the LH relievers @ 6M/yr on multi year contracts?  Antonio Bastardo has a FIP of 5.32.  Tony Sipp has a FIP of 5.02 although is ERA is a much more respectable 3.22

Tyler Clippard, another $6M/yr reliever who also promoted here.  His FIP mediocre at 4.6.

 

Abad has a FIP of 1.99 and 2 more years of control with arbitration.

Why are we citing less than half a season FIP for relievers?  It's a terribly small sample of innings, and not particularly meaningful to their performance.

 

And signing any of those FA relievers would not have precluded also adding Abad.  (And Abad only has 1 more year of control in arbitration.)

 

Not to mention, if the Twins had actually invested in the bullpen earlier, when many on this board called for it, it's possible we would still have Chih-Wei Hu and not be stuck with Jepsen's salary this year.  And plenty of the reliever suggestions from this board have out-performed Jepsen too: Neshek, Gregerson, Madson, Cishek, etc.

[Mike Sixel]

Oh, I think Detroit is probably in trouble. But, they did manage to add a good, young, pitcher last year in a trade. And, while they haven't done it the "right" way, they are on a decent run of success. If it is true the Twins (and most teams) can't stay competitive for more than 5-7 years because of how the draft works, how much longer would Detroit need to be good before their run was considered a success by the same people that think the earlier part of TR's run was a success? What is Detroit's post season record in this run? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How about trading top prospects for 2 years of Lucroy.  He is having a great year and would have been a huge upgrade but we would have trade our future to add a couple wins to a team that has a couple years of growing up to do.

You're ignoring the fact that if the rest of the team collapsed in 2016 or 2017, we could have flipped Lucroy again ourselves for prospects.

[wsnydes]

 

Oh, I think Detroit is probably in trouble. But, they did manage to add a good, young, pitcher last year in a trade. And, while they haven't done it the "right" way, they are on a decent run of success. If it is true the Twins (and most teams) can't stay competitive for more than 5-7 years because of how the draft works, how much longer would Detroit need to be good before their run was considered a success by the same people that think the earlier part of TR's run was a success? What is Detroit's post season record in this run? 

I'd already say that their run was a success.  I'd still put their FO (current and former) over the Twins.  It's just that the run of success could end badly.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd already say that their run was a success.  I'd still put their FO (current and former) over the Twins.  It's just that the run of success could end badly.

 

Worse than what we are seeing here the last few years? Hard to believe.....

[alarp33]

 

Worse than what we are seeing here the last few years? Hard to believe.....

 

The lineup is aging, some contracts will look bad... and they still for the next few years will have a Verlander-Fulmer-Zimmerman top of the rotation. If only we could struggle like that

[wsnydes]

 

Worse than what we are seeing here the last few years? Hard to believe.....

Not necessarily.  The potential is there, but their ownership shows more willingness to spend their way through it.  In another comment, I compared them to the Cubs prior to Theo getting there.  Even those teams weren't as bad as the Twins are currently.

[tobi0040]

Detroit and Miami are currently over .500. Colorado is a game below .500.

 

Here are these teams in # of wins since 2011:

 

Braves 444

MIL 433

CIN 432

AZ 428

SD 401

Miami 385

COL 377

Twins 368

 

ATL was in the playoffs in 2010 and 2013, lost the wild card game in 2012. They made some moves that didn’t work out and they realized it and fired their GM. Their focus has been to clear vets and money, get young, and acquire assets like draft picks. In 2-3 years they have done all of those things. They are neck and neck with us in the standings and have a better ranked farm system.

 

Hopefully our next move will be something similar to the Astros. After their last playoff run in 2005 they were terrible for six years. They then fired their GM and hired a smart guy from a winning organization. Luhnow came from the Cards. Prior to that he was a management consultant. He has degrees in economics and engineering from Pennsylvania and an MBA from Northwestern. He has fundamentally changed how that front office operates. They were in the playoffs last year and have a young talented roster, currently around .500 but I would not be shocked if they made a run.

[tobi0040]

A team like Detroit almost deserves their own category. It's pretty clear they have an owner who won't be around for much longer, and forced his GM's to spend his money.  Anaheim is another one that had an owner demanding to spend money

That is exactly the reason why the Tigers have made the moves they made and we should be so lucky here to have an owner that wants to win. It isn’t going to end well, but let’s understand a few other tidbits about Dave Dombrowski. They were in the playoffs from 2011 to 2014, including the world series in 2012. He also brought them there in 2006. He executed what is likely one of the best single trades in baseball history (Maybin and Miller for Miggy). And when he left DET they basically had his pick of next jobs.

[wsnydes]

 

Detroit and Miami are currently over .500. Colorado is a game below .500.

Here are these teams in # of wins since 2011:

Braves 444
MIL 433
CIN 432
AZ 428
SD 401
Miami 385
COL 377
Twins 368

ATL was in the playoffs in 2010 and 2013, lost the wild card game in 2012. They made some moves that didn’t work out and they realized it and fired their GM. Their focus has been to clear vets and money, get young, and acquire assets like draft picks. In 2-3 years they have done all of those things. They are neck and neck with us in the standings and have a better ranked farm system.

Hopefully our next move will be something similar to the Astros. After their last playoff run in 2005 they were terrible for six years. They then fired their GM and hired a smart guy from a winning organization. Luhnow came from the Cards. Prior to that he was a management consultant. He has degrees in economics and engineering from Pennsylvania and an MBA from Northwestern. He has fundamentally changed how that front office operates. They were in the playoffs last year and have a young talented roster, currently around .500 but I would not be shocked if they made a run.

Atlanta is doing what this team apparently refuses to admit they need to do.  The Cubs went a similar route.  It's almost like everyone realizes that this team is trying to tread water and failing it except the guys making the roster decisions.  That's how you get where this team is and stay that way if things don't change significantly.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If all a GM has to do is be better than the random fans here, well, that's a low bar probably.

Great point.

 

We can quibble about various moves and non-moves, but at the end of the day, I ask: what has my GM and front office added to the team?

 

In the areas where there is the most GM influence and discretion -- trades, free agency, and extensions -- it's hard to dispute that TR and the Twins FO have had net negative contributions to the franchise, for a significant length of time (5+ years), compared to their peers.  They've made a fair number of bad moves, and it seems every modest good move they've made has been followed by a bad doubling-down move.

 

Are they the absolutely worst?  Probably not.  And they may not have a "signature mistake" on the level of Josh Hamilton, or trading Swanson for Miller, either.  But they've been bad enough, long enough, that they are clearly in the bottom tier and probably should not be tolerated much longer.

 

And that's without wading into the harder-to-define issues with prospect development, where the Twins don't seem to be doing particularly well either.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Detroit and Miami are currently over .500. Colorado is a game below .500.

Here are these teams in # of wins since 2011:

Braves 444
MIL 433
CIN 432
AZ 428
SD 401
Miami 385
COL 377
Twins 368

ATL was in the playoffs in 2010 and 2013, lost the wild card game in 2012. They made some moves that didn’t work out and they realized it and fired their GM. Their focus has been to clear vets and money, get young, and acquire assets like draft picks. In 2-3 years they have done all of those things. They are neck and neck with us in the standings and have a better ranked farm system.

Hopefully our next move will be something similar to the Astros. After their last playoff run in 2005 they were terrible for six years. They then fired their GM and hired a smart guy from a winning organization. Luhnow came from the Cards. Prior to that he was a management consultant. He has degrees in economics and engineering from Pennsylvania and an MBA from Northwestern. He has fundamentally changed how that front office operates. They were in the playoffs last year and have a young talented roster, currently around .500 but I would not be shocked if they made a run.

 

Atlanta is also supposedly ALL IN on international signings this year. The Twins are not so rumored.

[wsnydes]

 

Atlanta is also supposedly ALL IN on international signings this year. The Twins are not so rumored.

That surprises me and doesn't surprise me all at the same time.

[tobi0040]

Great point.

 

We can quibble about various moves and non-moves, but at the end of the day, I ask: what has my GM and front office added to the team?

 

In the areas where there is the most GM influence and discretion -- trades, free agency, and extensions -- it's hard to dispute that TR and the Twins FO have had net negative contributions to the franchise, for a significant length of time (5+ years), compared to their peers.  They've made a fair number of bad moves, and it seems every modest good move they've made has been followed by a bad doubling-down move.

 

Are they the absolutely worst?  Probably not.  And they may not have a "signature mistake" on the level of Josh Hamilton, or trading Swanson for Miller, either.  But they've been bad enough, long enough, that they are clearly in the bottom tier and probably should not be tolerated much longer.

 

And that's without wading into the harder-to-define issues with prospect development, where the Twins don't seem to be doing particularly well either.

Not to re-hash about a million other threads. But I think realeasing a guy who goes on to hit 500 HR is a signature mistake. This was not within the last five years but that should qualify.

 

But your post is spot on. There is really nothing about the rebuild, the moves, the trades, the signings, the current W-L to justify Terry Ryan still being the GM. And nothing that should indicate the next GM should be in the current FO.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I would not have a problem with cleaning out the front office but the people who love to speak of the complete ineptitude of our FO office should consider where we would be if the FO who had followed some of the moves promoted and supported here over the last couple years.

 

Troy Tulowitzki had an OPS+ of 90 in 2015 and 80 so far this year.  What a nightmare it would be to have that $109M on the books not to mention the discussion here was giving up a couple top prospects.  Escobar outplayed Tulo last year and Nunez is outplaying him this year for a fraction of the money not to mention the prospects that posters here said they would give up for him. 

 

Jacoby Ellsbury with a 663 OPS in 2015.  He has been pretty decent this year with an ops of 772 but he has not been worth $21M/yr and what a mess it would be to have that contract on the books for the next 6.5 years.  We would in all likelihood have 2-4 years at 21M where a league minimum player would outperform him.  

 

Matt Garza had an ERA+ last year of 70 last year and has 4 IPs this year.

 

How about the LH relievers @ 6M/yr on multi year contracts?  Antonio Bastardo has a FIP of 5.32.  Tony Sipp has a FIP of 5.02 although is ERA is a much more respectable 3.22

Tyler Clippard, another $6M/yr reliever who also promoted here.  His FIP mediocre at 4.6.

 

Abad has a FIP of 1.99 and 2 more years of control with arbitration.

How about those who suggested we swap Nolasco for Shields and throw in prospects.  Shields FIP is 4.42.  Nolasco’s is 3.47.  Neither one of them is an asset but at least we only have one more year of Nolasco at $12M instead of 2 years and $42M.

 

How about trading top prospects for 2 years of Lucroy.  He is having a great year and would have been a huge upgrade but we would have trade our future to add a couple wins to a team that has a couple years of growing up to do.  These moves that were supported rigorously here would have devastated this team’s future.

 

The team has made 3 deals that make me scratch my head, the extensions for Hughes and Perkins, and to a lesser degree, Hicks for Murphy.  The team has been bad for an extended period.  The question IMO is has this period been abnormally long and has the FO positioned the team to be good for an extended period.  That's how I would determine if sweeping changes were necessary or perhaps a couple key changes to leadership and/or scouting/development.

cherry pick much?

 

You realize there are different people arguing different sides in these discussions? In any case you left out probably the biggest one with the biggest consensus: move Sano to 3rd and/or trade Plouffe.

 

Also you mention that if we want a really good player like Lucroy, we would have to trade our future for him. Trading our future is starting to sound like a really good idea.

[old nurse]

 

FIFY

 

I believe Atlanta, Milwaukee and Detroit all have brand new front offices, so its odd you think the Twins are just better by default... Atlanta's in particular has done a phenomenal job over the past year rebuilding an awful farm system... The Swanson for Shelby Miller deal might go down as one of the biggest ripoffs in 20 years

Disagree you do, fix, hardly.

The Kimbrel to unload a contract trade negates that as well as Simmons trade. Newcomb was in the pitching starved Angel organization. You don't give up what you are weakest in unless you do not believe his ceiling is as high as predicted. If the ceiling is high, it is yet another bad move by the Angels, who could be on the list. In Detroit number 2 took over for number one.  No other changes.

[old nurse]

 

Terry Ryan has been in charge for almost 20 years and won exactly one 5 game playoff series 14 years ago, but thank God he never threw random ideas around on a message board.  The Twins could be looking at something worse than a 20-45 record!

Oakland's only win of a series was over the Twins in the same time period. Does that make Beane a bad GM that needs to be fired?

[alarp33]

 

Disagree you do, fix, hardly.

The Kimbrel to unload a contract trade negates that as well as Simmons trade. Newcomb was in the pitching starved Angel organization. You don't give up what you are weakest in unless you do not believe his ceiling is as high as predicted. If the ceiling is high, it is yet another bad move by the Angels, who could be on the list. In Detroit number 2 took over for number one.  No other changes.

 

If you think trading an expensive closer during a rebuild was a bad move we probably won't agree on much.  So I'll just say agree to disagree

[old nurse]

 

Detroit and Miami are currently over .500. Colorado is a game below .500.

Here are these teams in # of wins since 2011:

Braves 444
MIL 433
CIN 432
AZ 428
SD 401
Miami 385
COL 377
Twins 368

ATL was in the playoffs in 2010 and 2013, lost the wild card game in 2012. They made some moves that didn’t work out and they realized it and fired their GM. Their focus has been to clear vets and money, get young, and acquire assets like draft picks. In 2-3 years they have done all of those things. They are neck and neck with us in the standings and have a better ranked farm system.

Hopefully our next move will be something similar to the Astros. After their last playoff run in 2005 they were terrible for six years. They then fired their GM and hired a smart guy from a winning organization. Luhnow came from the Cards. Prior to that he was a management consultant. He has degrees in economics and engineering from Pennsylvania and an MBA from Northwestern. He has fundamentally changed how that front office operates. They were in the playoffs last year and have a young talented roster, currently around .500 but I would not be shocked if they made a run.

In contention, or not. The actual number of wins a team has is meaningless. Mediocre or bad is the same thing.

[old nurse]

 

 

If you think trading an expensive closer during a rebuild was a bad move we probably won't agree on much.  So I'll just say agree to disagree

The return was bad, not the idea to trade. Unloading Upton's contract without spending the money is bad. If the Twins offloaded Nolasco and Santana and sat on the money the fans here would be furious

[alarp33]

 

The return was bad, not the idea to trade. Unloading Upton's contract without spending the money is bad. If the Twins offloaded Nolasco and Santana and sat on the money the fans here would be furious

 

You think the Braves are sitting on money?  They bought a competitive balance pick this year from Baltimore (Matusz) and bought a top 100 prospect from Arizona (Arroyo contract).  And they are rumored to be in on half the top 30 international prospects.  You are barking up the WRONG tree if you want to say an organization is being run wrong or cheaply

[wsnydes]

 

Oakland's only win of a series was over the Twins in the same time period. Does that make Beane a bad GM that needs to be fired?

Following that logic, yes.  

 

Before you jump all over me, I'll add that I think he does a pretty good job in a very tough spot.  The team is relevant more often than not.  You'd probably like more peaks, but there really aren't many deep valleys in there, which is good.  

[wsnydes]

 

You think the Braves are sitting on money?  They bought a competitive balance pick this year from Baltimore (Matusz) and bought a top 100 prospect from Arizona (Arroyo contract).  And they are rumored to be in on half the top 30 international prospects.  You are barking up the WRONG tree if you want to say an organization is being run wrong or cheaply

This.  Too many judge payroll on stinginess.  It has to be taken in context.  Rebuilding teams have lower payrolls because they offload their bigger veteran contracts to acquire young talent, which is cheap.

[old nurse]

 

You think the Braves are sitting on money?  They bought a competitive balance pick this year from Baltimore (Matusz) and bought a top 100 prospect from Arizona (Arroyo contract).  And they are rumored to be in on half the top 30 international prospects.  You are barking up the WRONG tree if you want to say an organization is being run wrong or cheaply

Competitive balance picks. What is the success rate of draft picks 30-100?

For 10 million dollars and Alex Wood they got Touki and a late draft pick. Touki is repeating class A ball, and not having a good year. It will take a long tome to say it was a good move are not, see Meyer, Alex.

[old nurse]

 

 

This.  Too many judge payroll on stinginess.  It has to be taken in context.  Rebuilding teams have lower payrolls because they offload their bigger veteran contracts to acquire young talent, which is cheap.

If they get talent in return.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Competitive balance picks. What is the success rate of draft picks 30-100?

For 10 million dollars and Alex Wood they got Touki and a late draft pick. Touki is repeating class A ball, and not having a good year. It will take a long tome to say it was a good move are not, see Meyer, Alex.

 

What should the worst or second worst team in baseball do with money, if not buy picks?