Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just an issue with the semantics possibly, but I don't think either of those things are really that outrageous. Less than 50/50 either happen, but his phrasing makes them both sound like longshots which I wouldn't think is the case.

 

Not that a 20/20 or 40 HRs automatically make for a good individual season. We've seen players do both and still look pretty ordinary or even poor.

 

8 players did 20/20 last year Nick. Anyone doing it seems like a long shot to me....

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 

I'd rather Buxton line drive some doubles and triples and let the home run power increase down the road. 

 

 

If he's making contact, I think Buxton might have decent HR numbers from the get go, only because Target Field is very, very kind to right handers. Lots of linedrives hang up just long enough to find the flower beds.

 

And I still wouldn't really consider him a power hitter. Not yet at least.

[Mike Sixel]

Posting this one because I was happy I was on mute at work....

 

Guest
2:50 Could Aaron Hicks break out in a JBJ type of way?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:51 As for Hicks? No.
WHERE DID Q go?
It was about whether Hicks could berak out like JBJ
Which is no.

[Guest]

Noah

2:28 Do any of the Twins' starters besides Ervin Santana post an average season? Which one is most likely?

 

Dan Szymborski

2:28 I think Berrios, simply because '16 in MLB aside, he *does* have updie.,

Agree, followed by May. I also believe Mejia, if given a chance could produce at least as much WAR as Santiago. Gibson - who knows?

 

Related- interesting article on Twinkie Town about how StatCast shows how lucky Phil Hughes was last year in his "good" victory before getting injured and just how generally bad he was over the whole year. It's been two injury-filled seasons since he had the year of his life. It's hard to believe he'll truly be anymore ready at the start of this year than Perkins was at the start of last year.

[Thrylos]

 

Posting this one because I was happy I was on mute at work....

 

Guest
2:50 Could Aaron Hicks break out in a JBJ type of way?

 

Dan Szymborski
2:51 As for Hicks? No.
WHERE DID Q go?
It was about whether Hicks could berak out like JBJ
Which is no.

 

 

JBJ = Jackie Bradley Jr?

 

[nicksaviking]

 

8 players did 20/20 last year Nick. Anyone doing it seems like a long shot to me....

 

It only looks rare because they are two dis-similar skills stuck together and 20 SB shouldn't be an issue. Had Eduardo Nunez stayed with the Twins all year he likely would have done it. Like I said, I mostly didn't like the phrasing which should be taken with a grain of salt considering it was an off-the-cuff chat. I agree it's not likely, but I don't agree that it's particularly not likely. It's more that I'm being unreasonably sensitive to semantics.

 

But 20 HR from a full-time RH hitter at Target Field just isn't difficult. Looking at the numbers since Target Field opened Michael Cuddyer in 2010, Danny Valencia in 2011 and Trevor Plouffe in 2014 are the only RH hitters with 550 ABs that DIDN'T hit 20 HR.

 

And again, that wouldn't automatically make him a good hitter, or make 2017 a success, it's just the nature of the park he plays in and the side of the plate he hits from. If he stays healthy and in the lineup.

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

JBJ = Jackie Bradley Jr?

 

that was my assumption also.

[TheLeviathan]

The only chance Hicks has to break out is if he starts throwing from the mound.  He'll never hit.

[Mike Sixel]

Charityslave
12:08 Does Dozier hit 35 hrs this year?

 

Eno Sarris
12:09 Yes.

[Mike Sixel]

Bt
12:33 Will Jose Berrios make the rotation to start the year? And is it safe to say at this point he may not live up to his hype?

 

Eno Sarris
12:33 I'm still hopeful. Great command, made a small adjustment to his delivery late last year.

[Thrylos]

 

Bt
12:33 Will Jose Berrios make the rotation to start the year? And is it safe to say at this point he may not live up to his hype?

 

Eno Sarris
12:33 I'm still hopeful. Great command, made a small adjustment to his delivery late last year.

 

I take it that his answer is to the second and not the first question...

[Mike Sixel]

Snarfle
1:17 Yeah, Kepler. He was nifty for a bit last year. How nifty will he be this year?

 

Eno Sarris
1:18 I'm worried. Doesn't have a power launch angle, didn't kill the ball by exit velo, overplayed his context-neutral results, fell off in second half. Could be a .260/.330 15/15 guy, which is okay but not a star.

 

Airborne
1:18 is it okay to dislike Max Kepler based on his quote in yesterday's article opposing the air revolution in the swing

 

Eno Sarris
1:19 yes, because it's meaningful when put hand in hand with his own results.

[Parker Hageman]

 

Snarfle
1:17 Yeah, Kepler. He was nifty for a bit last year. How nifty will he be this year?

 

Eno Sarris
1:18 I'm worried. Doesn't have a power launch angle, didn't kill the ball by exit velo, overplayed his context-neutral results, fell off in second half. Could be a .260/.330 15/15 guy, which is okay but not a star.

 

Airborne
1:18 is it okay to dislike Max Kepler based on his quote in yesterday's article opposing the air revolution in the swing

 

Eno Sarris
1:19 yes, because it's meaningful when put hand in hand with his own results.

 

The minute I hit publish on that article I knew it was going to get Kepler's name dragged through the mud among certain people. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

The minute I hit publish on that article I knew it was going to get Kepler's name dragged through the mud among certain people. 

 

He might (or might not) deserve that, though. 

 

Kind of like your manager saying all he cares about is RBI....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Charityslave
12:08 Does Dozier hit 35 hrs this year?

 

Eno Sarris
12:09 Yes.

One could say he's bullish on Dozier.

 

Bull Dozier.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Gonsalves mentioned in a FanGraphs article:

Top MLB Prospects for 2017: The Pitchers (Part 2 of 2)

By Marc Hulet

 

Gonsalves was 1 of only 6 mentioned.

 

Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Twins: This lefty’s name is probably one of the least recognizable on the four lists I’ve compiled in recent weeks. Gonsalves was originally drafted in the fourth round of the 2013 draft and has methodically worked his way up through the Minnesota system. He had a breakout year in 2016 while splitting his time between high-A and double-A — where he had a 1.82 ERA with just 43 hits allowed in 74.1 innings. If he can get off to a quick start to ’17, he could be in the Majors in the summer. The Twins’ rotation should open the year with a mix of modest veteran arms and unproven younger players with varying ceilings. Gonsalves, 22, has a chance to be a solid mid-rotation arm if his command/control holds up and his four-pitch repertoire continues to develop.

 

EDIT: forgot link

[Mike Sixel]

Gentry
9:20 How's Jose Berrios' command? Coming into last year it had been written that he was at least average in command, but now it is said to be his main drawback?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:20 One is pretty much not allowed to be positive after what happened to Berrios as a rookie
9:21 Doesn't mean he can't excel, but based on the most recent evidence, he's got a lot of kinks to work out

 

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer
9:26 Talk to me about Brian Dozier. Do you think he can come close to replicating last years power?

Jeff Sullivan
9:26 Depends what you mean by "close." He hit for power in 2015, too. 30 home runs is easily within his reach

[Mike Sixel]

Matt
9:42 Why did nobody claim Byung Ho Park? Is there really any difference between him and Eric Thames other that the sequencing of their career path?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:42 Well, the sequencing is relevant, because Thames had a good 2016 and Park did not
But I do feel like Park's skills have been undersold

[Mike Sixel]

Well, this isn't ideal if you are thinking the Twins are ahead of the White Sox in a potential rebuild....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-100-prospects/

 

One Twin in the top 100. 4 in the next 50, but one of those is an injured OFer who will miss a year of development. The White Sox have 4 in the top 50....

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Gentry
9:20 How's Jose Berrios' command? Coming into last year it had been written that he was at least average in command, but now it is said to be his main drawback?

 

I watched the videos from his last WBC start. The 2 HR's he gave up were BOTH called to be down and inside, but ended up midlevel and even more in. His pitches seem to travel at about 2 o'clock of where they called for. Flying open or something like that? He only gave up 3 baserunners in 5 innings which is pretty damn good...but, they all scored due the HR's.

[markos]

 

Well, this isn't ideal if you are thinking the Twins are ahead of the White Sox in a potential rebuild....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-top-100-prospects/

 

One Twin in the top 100. 4 in the next 50, but one of those is an injured OFer who will miss a year of development. The White Sox have 4 in the top 50....

It will be interesting to watch and see what the White Sox are able to do over the next few years. In some ways they are the inverse of the Twins. They have a ton of unproven and in some ways disappointing young pitching (Rodon, Fulmer, Giolito, Lopez); the Twins have a ton of unproven and in some ways disappointing young hitters (Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco). As far as young position players go, the White Sox have Moancada, Tim Anderson (he with the 9:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio) and, um... that's about it? They have a couple other guys that are interesting, but not much else in the pipeline. The White Sox certainly have a few more guys they could flip for position players (most notably Quintana and Abreu), but right now the Twins at least have arms in their pipeline that are fairly close. The White Sox could very well have the worst everyday lineup in the AL for the next two seasons. Maybe the plan is to sign a bunch of free agents.

[Mike Sixel]

Is Sano really bad, or potentially good?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/miguel-sano-defensive-superstar/

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Is Sano really bad, or potentially good?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/miguel-sano-defensive-superstar/

I always thought peoples' assessment of his defensive potential was based on pretty big assumptions about body types. He is very very athletic for his size. I doubt he is ever a plus 3B, but once he learns to cut down on the errors (as Plouffe did) over time, I really think he has a chance to be an average defensive 3B. 

[Vanimal46]

Sano just needs to be a serviceable 3B for 2 years, then he can head across the diamond to settle in at 1B for the next 10 years. We're all going to be much happier when that happens. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Sano just needs to be a serviceable 3B for 2 years, then he can head across the diamond to settle in at 1B for the next 10 years. We're all going to be much happier when that happens. 

 

12 more years? That sounds like another Mauer-esque contract.

 

Let's do it anyway!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Is Sano really bad, or potentially good?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/miguel-sano-defensive-superstar/

Very interesting. I say that I am not opposed to Sano playing a few innings in the outfield again this season, under the right circumstances. Going into last year with postseason expectations and no outfield experience--none--it was an atrocious idea.

[Mike Sixel]

A positive thought on an injury (edit, and on Byron):

 

Scott
1:15 Is Kirilloff getting TJ a cause for concern? It's quite rare for an outfielder to get the surgery.

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:16 Maybe you worry he doesn't have the great, RF arm when he comes back but he was drafted where he was because of his bat and that should be fine.

 

O Dizzle
1:26 Which former top prospect do you think will have a big season this year?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
1:26 Buxton

[Mike Sixel]

9:13
Chip: Is Byron Buxton the September guy, or 1st half guy?

 

9:13
Paul Swydan: Hoping for September guy.
9:14
Jeff Zimmerman: Somewhere in between I think. I can’t a good feel on him

[Mike Sixel]

This was a follow up to questions about comparing players to all time greats, and why it's a bad idea. Also to "there aren't many good young 1B right now"...

 

Richie
12:56 Miggy wasn't a 'good young first baseman' either. A couple of young, good-hitting outfielders/third basemen/catchers etc. will find themselves starring at first in due time.

 

Dave Cameron
12:57 Sure, but there aren't really many great young hitters who also suck at fielding right now. Sano is probably the closest, but his K% makes it unlikely he ever turns into Miggy. Maybe Stanton ends up at 1B if his knees keep hurting.
Schwarber I guess fits.

[Vanimal46]

Hot off the presses at Fangraphs, "Spring Training Divisional Outlook: AL Central"