Let's Make a Deal & Save the Hot Stove Season

[tvagle]

With word from Cheesehead-land that Jonathan Lucroy feels it's time to move on from Milwaukee it's time for TR to get creative and throw this at Milwaukee to bolster our catching situation and maybe solve a few other problems along the way

 

Player  (2016 Sal/2017 Sal/2018 Sal) All contract info in Millions taken from Baseball Prospectus Cots Baseball Contracts

 

From Milwaukee to Minnesota

 

Matt Garza (12.5/12.5/opt 13/5/1)
Jonathan Lucroy (4.35/.25)
Wil Smith (1.475)

 

Total Salary To Minnesota $18.325   $12.75  $1/5/13

 

From Minnesota to Milwaukee

Ricky Nolasco (12/12/1)
Kurt Suzuki (6/opt 6/0)
Oswaldo Arcia (league minimum .55)
Logan Darnell, Pat Dean MIL picks one (league minimum .55)
Michael Tonkin (league minimum .55)

$3 Million to offset Suzuki's Contract

 

Total Salary to Milwaukee $16.65  $12  $1

 

Garza for Nolasco is change of scenery contract swap...Put Garza in the Bullpen and let him take his anger for being back in Minnesota out on RH hitters from around the AL Central...tell him he can Go Hard then Go Home

Lucroy/Murphy for a season sounds much better to me than Murphy/Suzuki

The Brothers Arcia are reunited and it may feel so good...or...another brother bites the dust

Darnell/Dean are the same pitcher in the same situation and their will only be room for one of them...maybe

Tonkin has to be out of options soon and there are younger options waiting to blow past him like a Burdi fastball

 

Oh...and Smith lands the Twins the LH reliever that every outlet other than Old Navy or Albertville has predicted since the end of last season

 

My virtual Hot Stove is keeping me a little warmer after this post...looking forward to any discussion

[nicksaviking]

If the Brewers are going to sell Lucroy in a salary dump, they likely wouldn't take Nolasco and Suzuki's contracts back.

 

I don't think that package does anything for a rebuilding team. Milwaukee will want more than the stuff the Twins don't have room for. Generally, any trade that brings us a player we want is going to hurt. I don't think that trade stings much for the Twins.

 

Assuming Nolasco and Garza are a push, and frankly I'd rather have Garza, Lucroy and the very talented Smith are coming to Minnesota for Suzuki, Darnell, Tonkin and Arcia. Guys who have tenuous at best spots on the Twins roster.

[Thrylos]

Donuts to Dollars that Nolasco will have a better 2016 than Garza

 

Not sure why the Twins (or anyone else) would want to get Lucroy without making sure that he play after his concussions.

 

So 2 out 3 are bad.

 

I'd be more that happy to give the cheeseheads Tonkin and Darnell and Dean for Will Smith.  Matter of fact, if the Brewers want to trade Will Smith straight for Perkins, I'd be doing a happy dance.

 

But it is not happening... Smith will be their closer in 2016, is under control for a while and there is no reason to get rid of him...

[tvagle]

Lucroy is far from a known commodity as a catcher at this point as we well know with concussion suffering catchers who can go from .315 hitting machines to .265 occasional gap slappers

 

I don't think the Brewers will get much in return for Lucroy

[Kwak]

I consider the proposed trade ridiculous.  Use the same deal and let MILW keep Lucroy and the Twins are ahead in the deal.

[tvagle]

 

Donuts to Dollars that Nolasco will have a better 2016 than Garza

 

Not sure why the Twins (or anyone else) would want to get Lucroy without making sure that he play after his concussions.

 

So 2 out 3 are bad.

 

I'd be more that happy to give the cheeseheads Tonkin and Darnell and Dean for Will Smith.  Matter of fact, if the Brewers want to trade Will Smith straight for Perkins, I'd be doing a happy dance.

 

But it is not happening... Smith will be their closer in 2016, is under control for a while and there is no reason to get rid of him...

 

Time to put your donut where you're mouth is...I mean I'll take that bet depending on the metric(s) used 

A dozen Dunkins sound about right?

 

Would you take Lucroy over Suzuki (I'd take Lecroy over Suzuki at this point) ?

 

Call it Spring Fever...I'd just like to see something happen

[tvagle]

 

I consider the proposed trade ridiculous.  Use the same deal and let MILW keep Lucroy and the Twins are ahead in the deal.

I'd much prefer a questionable year of Lucroy to a known commodity in Suzuki

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd much prefer a questionable year of Lucroy to a known commodity in Suzuki

I think his point was that the proposed trade was so imbalanced, you could actually remove thr alleged centerpiece Lucroy and the Twins would still win the deal.

[tvagle]

 

I think his point was that the proposed trade was so imbalanced, you could actually remove thr alleged centerpiece Lucroy and the Twins would still win the deal.

Understood...still would like to see something more then A bad hope from the left side of the pen

[Brock Beauchamp]

So the Twins get Lucroy and only give up a pile of overpaid junk?

 

Sign me up. Milwaukee may feel differently, though.

[dgwills]

How about Murphy, Stewart, and Arcia. That seems more than fair considering what we have seen teams get for position players this offseason. 

[tvagle]

 

How about Murphy, Stewart, and Arcia. That seems more than fair considering what we have seen teams get for position players this offseason. 

Would bet that MIL waits until trade deadline to deal hoping Lucroy has bounce back first half and can catch without issues

 

Wouldn't trade Murphy's future potential for one year of Lucroy..Smith is the centerpiece of the trade the rest is junk for junk...unless you believe in Arcia's power potential 

 

[DaveW]

How about Murphy, Stewart, and Arcia. That seems more than fair considering what we have seen teams get for position players this offseason.

I wouldn't give up Stewart as its wayyyyyyyyyyy too early to give him away.

 

Arcia+Murphy in a heartbeat. Murphy is a backup catcher more than likely and the Twins aren't going to play Arcia anyways.

[dgwills]

 

I wouldn't give up Stewart as its wayyyyyyyyyyy too early to give him away.

Arcia+Murphy in a heartbeat. Murphy is a backup catcher more than likely and the Twins aren't going to play Arcia anyways.

That's probably better. I have to admit I'm starting to doubt Stewart. 

[DaveW]

That's probably better. I have to admit I'm starting to doubt Stewart.

 

I don't know why people are doubting Stewart so much. I know the Twins haven't drafted a lot of high upside high school pitchers...well... Ever sorta, but other than his K rate his numbers have been damn impressive. Keep in mind he was only 20 years old last season and still posted only a 3.20 ERA in A+ last season, now, that isn't the most amazing state ever, but it indicates that he is able to get guys out on a regular basis who are older than him.

 

Now, do I wish he went all Shelby Miller on us and pushed his way to the majors sooner than all expected? Sure. But I'm not going to get discouraged from a young pitcher who has had good results, is only 20, and will still

Be found on a good number of top 100 prospect lists heading into 2016. Make no mistake, behind Berrios, Stewart is still by far our best SP "prospect" with the most upside.

[dgwills]

 

I don't know why people are doubting Stewart so much. I know the Twins haven't drafted a lot of high upside high school pitchers...well... Ever sorta, but other than his K rate his numbers have been damn impressive. Keep in mind he was only 20 years old last season and still posted only a 3.20 ERA in A+ last season, now, that isn't the most amazing state ever, but it indicates that he is able to get guys out on a regular basis who are older than him.

Now, do I wish he went all Shelby Miller on us and pushed his way to the majors sooner than all expected? Sure. But I'm not going to get discouraged from a young pitcher who has had good results, is only 20, and will still
Be found on a good number of top 100 prospect lists heading into 2016. Make no mistake, behind Berrios, Stewart is still by far our best SP "prospect" with the most upside.

My main problem is that I can't think of any pitchers who had a bad K rate in the lower minors and then turned it around later. I'm sure it's happened, but no one comes to mind. At the same time I've never seen him pitch, so I really can't say too much. He may just be working on multiple pitches which is necessary for being a top of the rotation pitcher. I'd rate him about the same and Gonsalves right now. Even though though they are very different pitchers. Stewarts drop in velocity also worries me. I'd rate Thorpe and Jay ahead of him right now. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Milwaukee GM hangs up before Ryan can even finish that offer. Not happening. 

[lukeduke1980]

Unfortunately I believe Hot Stove season is over in Minnesota.  

[Mike Sixel]

Trading Stewart isn't "giving up on him", it is exchanging him. That OP trade offer is ridiculous. Arcia and Stewart MIGHT do it......but I'm not sure.

[Vanimal46]

The Brewers aren't letting Lucroy go for a salary swap... By the time June rolls around and he proves whether or not he can remain at C, then teams will make their offers. 

[HitInAPinch]

Has anyone actually heard anything about Lucroy's recovery from the concussion?  I did a quick Google and couldn't find anything.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Trading Stewart isn't "giving up on him", it is exchanging him. That OP trade offer is ridiculous. Arcia and Stewart MIGHT do it......but I'm not sure.

It's not giving up on Stewart but it's certainly selling low on him. If I was the Twins, I'd have to think long and hard about what you believe Stewart will become in the future. Same goes for Milwaukee.

 

It's likely Milwaukee would ask for more of a sure thing than either Stewart and Arcia. Given the make-up of the current Twins system, I'm not sure what that might be. Gordon is too much and Kepler is way too much. Berrios is basically untouchable at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's not giving up on Stewart but it's certainly selling low on him. If I was the Twins, I'd have to think long and hard about what you believe Stewart will become in the future. Same goes for Milwaukee.

 

It's likely Milwaukee would ask for more of a sure thing than either Stewart and Arcia. Given the make-up of the current Twins system, I'm not sure what that might be. Gordon is too much and Kepler is way too much. Berrios is basically untouchable at this point.

 

Agreed. Fangraphs has a long article on Lucroy today......or yesterday, but I read it today. He also has major question marks. 

 

I don't know if this is selling low on Stewart or not, national pundit types don't seem as down on him as Twins' fans......

 

While I was all in on wanting to sign Russell Martin, and was for trading for Lucroy in the past, I'm not sure I would right now. It is very dependent on the medicals, and on the price. Frankly, I hope Toronto is awful this year, and they deal Martin at the deadline, and TR is in on that, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I suspect Milwaukee isn't anxious to trade Lucroy at this point. They were probably leaning in that direction on September 1st but after the late-season concussion, they're probably looking at a deadline deal for him after he proves to the rest of baseball he can still play behind the dish.

 

They still have two full seasons of control over Jonathan. If they hold on to him until July or even next offseason, they can still get value for him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I suspect Milwaukee isn't anxious to trade Lucroy at this point. They were probably leaning in that direction on September 1st but after the late-season concussion, they're probably looking at a deadline deal for him after he proves to the rest of baseball he can still play behind the dish.

 

They still have two full seasons of control over Jonathan. If they hold on to him until July or even next offseason, they can still get value for him.

 

He'll be on the wrong side of 30 the longer they wait........and what if he gets hurt again? They have no shot to compete the next couple years, they really should deal him for two guys in A ball.......they should be signing lots of guys to 1 year deals they can flip. Pretty much anything other than what they are doing.....

[old nurse]

Any trade with the Brewers would have to include Zach Jones so they can send him to the minors.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He'll be on the wrong side of 30 the longer they wait........and what if he gets hurt again? They have no shot to compete the next couple years, they really should deal him for two guys in A ball.......they should be signing lots of guys to 1 year deals they can flip. Pretty much anything other than what they are doing.....

It's a risk but it's a risk I'd be willing to take if I was Milwaukee. Lucroy's value is at an all-time low. He flat-out stunk for the first half of 2015 as he battled an injury and then had a decent partial season before the concussion. Now he's a huge question mark, one I'd sit on for at least half a season in hopes he rebuilds some value.

[Vanimal46]

 

It's a risk but it's a risk I'd be willing to take if I was Milwaukee. Lucroy's value is at an all-time low. He flat-out stunk for the first half of 2015 as he battled an injury and then had a decent partial season before the concussion. Now he's a huge question mark, one I'd sit on for at least half a season in hopes he rebuilds some value.

Yep, agreed. And they have to hope that he can stick at C for at least the first few months of the season. Lucroy's value at C >>>>>>>> Lucroy's value at 1B....

[tvagle]

 

I suspect Milwaukee isn't anxious to trade Lucroy at this point. They were probably leaning in that direction on September 1st but after the late-season concussion, they're probably looking at a deadline deal for him after he proves to the rest of baseball he can still play behind the dish.

 

They still have two full seasons of control over Jonathan. If they hold on to him until July or even next offseason, they can still get value for him.

Totally agree...right now i don't think they could expect much for Lucroy which was the reason for the original deal...cabin fever wants me to hear any kind of Twins move even if it's getting the door slammed in their face

[GACbaseball]

For what it's worth, David Schoenfield just posted an article on ESPN mentioning possibilities for a Lucroy trade and the Twins were included:

 

"No, the Brewers aren't getting Byron Buxton or Jose Berrios, but the Twins have a lot of interesting prospects like Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Kohl Stewart. They could throw back Murphy or Suzuki (paying $2 million of Suzuki's $6 million salary to even out payroll) as well."

 

No chance we are able to dump Nolasco, or add Will Smith, without giving up atleast 2 of those prospects as well as other minor prospects. Would anyone do a trade of Nick Gordon, Kohl Stewart, Trey Cabbage and filler Lucroy and Will Smith trade?

 

That's probably a more realistic prospect expectation for them