Dodgers interested in Willingham

[gunnarthor]

Again, not sure how willing the Twins are to move him but a package around Zach Lee could be interesting.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/19590756/dodgers-like-hamels-but-may-not-have-enough-to-get-him

[Bark's Lounge]

Zach Lee, Kenley Jansen and Jerry Sands. Let this be the starting point.

[J-Dog Dungan]

Who exactly do the Dodgers have in the way of pitching that would interest us in moving the Hammer?

[jorgenswest]

The Twins should be interested in trading him. His value will never be greater than it is now. I do not think he can bring a Zach Lee level prospect back.

 

If he and Doumit are still around in 2014, the Twins will have two aging players in decline that are significant defensive liabilities.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If he and Doumit are still around in 2014, the Twins will have two aging players in decline that are significant defensive liabilities.

Who will cost them $10.5m combined. I wouldn't worry about it too much.

[ashbury]

Weighing against a trade is this long-term issue: will shipping Willingham so soon after signing a 3-year deal make future free agents think twice about signing? FA isn't usually a big part of the Twins' "game", but this off-season in particular we think they should be in the market for some pitching. Sure, if some teams knocks you over with a deal for JWill you have to listen, but for more equal deals, maybe you have to play the long game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Weighing against a trade is this long-term issue: will shipping Willingham so soon after signing a 3-year deal make future free agents think twice about signing? FA isn't usually a big part of the Twins' "game", but this off-season in particular we think they should be in the market for some pitching. Sure, if some teams knocks you over with a deal for JWill you have to listen, but for more equal deals, maybe you have to play the long game.

I think the impact on potential FAs would be minimal. On the other hand, the Twins ALWAYS need right handed mashers. If they trade Josh, they just have to go find another. So unless the receiving team is willing to massively overpay, what's the point?

[jorgenswest]

Lots of "team friendly" contracts awarded to decline phase players adds to the cycle of mediocrity.

 

Mediocre teams always have guys like Carroll, Doumit and Willingham on the rosters. They are great in the clubhouse. Their contributions look good in the context of a below .500 team. In a few years, we can continue the cycle and replace them with different decline phase players on team friendly commitments.

[Badsmerf]

Weighing against a trade is this long-term issue: will shipping Willingham so soon after signing a 3-year deal make future free agents think twice about signing? FA isn't usually a big part of the Twins' "game", but this off-season in particular we think they should be in the market for some pitching. Sure, if some teams knocks you over with a deal for JWill you have to listen, but for more equal deals, maybe you have to play the long game.

This argument is a reach. Willingham would be going to a contender in the later part of his career, something many players would love the chance to have. The Twins have little choice but to move an OF at some point in the next year. Arcia looks like he will be knocking on the door sooner than later, with Hicks emerging this year and Benson on his way back the Twins could field an entirely rookie OF next year if they wanted IMO. Get value out of Willingham if you can, his production will be missed, but not unrecoverable.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Lots of "team friendly" contracts awarded to decline phase players adds to the cycle of mediocrity.

 

Mediocre teams always have guys like Carroll, Doumit and Willingham on the rosters. They are great in the clubhouse. Their contributions look good in the context of a below .500 team. In a few years, we can continue the cycle and replace them with different decline phase players on team friendly commitments.

Almost every good team has decline phase contracts in play at any given moment as well. It's part of the FA market. You pay guys for their best years and part of the deal is that you have to pay a little when they might not be so good.

 

The key is to minimize those contracts and try to rarely pay guys past their age 35 seasons. The Twins have Doumit and Willingham for two more seasons. Let's stop pretending that they're both signed through their age 38 seasons.

 

After all, if they wanted "good clubhouse guys", they could have paid more for the older, crappier version of Josh Willingham they already had on the roster. They didn't do that.

[ashbury]

Willingham would be going to a contender in the later part of his career, something many players would love the chance to have.

You raise a good counterpoint. A lot depends on the individual player - a move to the west coast might affect Willingham more (or less) than some other player - so a lot depends on the GM's assessment of the total picture. It could indeed be the case that Willingham would have been just as happy with the Dodgers had they offered the same price, so that the Twins end up facilitating his getting onto the right team at the right price, if the trade happens. I think a large aspect of the assessment has to be the human factor. Players don't come to as team as a free agent just to be a chip to be bargained away later, even though everyone understands that "it's a business". I trust Terry Ryan's instincts in this regard a lot better than I trusted Bill Smith's. I will still be surprised if Willingham gets traded in his first year with the Twins.

[Thrylos]

Almost every good team has decline phase contracts in play at any given moment as well. It's part of the FA market. You pay guys for their best years and part of the deal is that you have to pay a little when they might not be so good.

 

The key is to minimize those contracts and try to rarely pay guys past their age 35 seasons. The Twins have Doumit and Willingham for two more seasons. Let's stop pretending that they're both signed through their age 38 seasons.

 

After all, if they wanted "good clubhouse guys", they could have paid more for the older, crappier version of Josh Willingham they already had on the roster. They didn't do that.

Turn that 35 into 32, unless we are talking about HOF-caliber players and I would agree with that...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Turn that 35 into 32, unless we are talking about HOF-caliber players and I would agree with that...

It all depends on what you're paying the guy. Willingham makes $7m per year. For even 3/4 of his current production, that's a fair value.

 

On the other hand, the Carroll signing was a bad one because of his age, the length of contract, his position, and his age.

 

If you ONLY target 28 year old free agents, you're going to overpay in both years and money. Look at guys like Crawford. Is that good value?

[heatbeat]

The idea of Willingham being traded is interesting. On one hand, he is one of if not the best Twins offensive weapon and his swing is built for Target Field and is signed to a pretty solid contract. On the other hand, he has had injuries to his back in the past and he is easily having the best offensive season of his career. I don't think his stock will ever be higher then it will be right now, so I can understand why TR would trade him. I read on MLBTR that Ryan would have to be blown away to trade Hammer, and that is a pretty good position to be in.

[kab21]

Turn that 35 into 32, unless we are talking about HOF-caliber players and I would agree with that...

As long as you limit the years and overall value of the contract there shouldn't be any reason to avoid productive players in their early 30's. The problem is when somebody commits to Jayson Werth or Andre Ethier. Or guys like Mark Buehrle/CJ wilson.

 

I'm all for trading Willingham as long as the Twins are getting a nice package of prospects back.

[DaveW]

Kemp+Kershaw+Loney

[jwestbrock]

Kemp+Kershaw+Loney

Loney?? Because this team needs more first basemen? Plus they already have a first baseman with his exact skill set only 40 points higher in career average and 60 points higher in career OBP. James Loney is a poor man's Joe Mauer just without the ability to play catcher.

 

Loney might actually help the Twins chances with that proposal because the Dodgers have been trying to trade him for two years if my memory serves me correctly.

[notoriousgod71]

Loney?? Because this team needs more first basemen? Plus they already have a first baseman with his exact skill set only 40 points higher in career average and 60 points higher in career OBP. James Loney is a poor man's Joe Mauer just without the ability to play catcher.

 

Loney might actually help the Twins chances with that proposal because the Dodgers have been trying to trade him for two years if my memory serves me correctly.

That was the supposed Johan trade offer.. or at least what Twins fans hoped for.

[DaveW]

That was the supposed Johan trade offer.. or at least what Twins fans hoped for.

It was reported somewhere actually, the debate on BYTO was "is this enough?" and the consensus was a resounding no unless they included billingsley as well.

 

Or maybe it was Kemp+Kershaw+Billingsley for Santana and everyone wanted Loney as well?

 

 

Either way, I'm still glad we got 1.5 seasons of Jon Rauch and 1 season of JJ hardy instead!

[chopper0080]

I can't see the team moving Willingham for anything less than a package of prospects including a top prospect. He means that much to this as his power plays at Target field unlike any other player on this roster. That being said, if a team is desperate and an offer like that comes across, then yu have to make the move.

[Top Gun]

Jason Marquis turned in a strong outing in Sunday's victory over the Dodgers, allowing just two runs on six hits over his six innings of work.

 

Marquis walked three and punched out two in the game. After allowing an RBI single to Andre Ethier in the first inning, Marquis stepped up his game and shut the Dodgers down until a Jerry Hairston RBI single in the sixth.

[Shane Wahl]

God, this would be terrible. Do people generally have a bad feeling about the Twins all the way through 2014? This guy is on pace to hit more homers than anybody in Twins memory (are we talking Killebrew here?) and trading him is seen as a remotely good idea!? Do you people know what kind of drop that means for the Twins lineup? Do you have ANY idea? Say goodbye until 2016 at the earliest.

[Shane Wahl]

All resources need to be thrown at starting pitching. This doesn't mean anything beyond signing one FA starter and packaging a trade to get another. Capps, Burton, Valencia, Casilla, Hermsen, Bigley, Morales, N. Roberts, and J.D. Williams are just some of the names that should be considered to bring in 2 starters at the AAA or MLB level plus whatever else.

[Highabove]

The Twins still have to put out a Team in which Fans are willing to buy tickets to watch.

If not, you wont have much of an Organization to talk about.

[Badsmerf]

The Twins still have to put out a Team in which Fans are willing to buy tickets to watch.

If not, you wont have much of an Organization to talk about.

At this point does worrying about that make much sense? They already are in the worst 5 records. Fans will come to see Plouffe, Mauer, Morneau etc. If Willingham gets traded there will be young guys to come watch too.

[Mr. Ed]

The Twins still have to put out a Team in which Fans are willing to buy tickets to watch.

If not, you wont have much of an Organization to talk about.

Fans WON'T come out if you put out another losing product. I agree with you Highabove, because the Twins cut back on the budget this year, with 'declining revenue'; just thing what next year will be as they cut salary off with dropping several pitching $$$, yet don't add anything in because there is less revenue. Blech.

[Brock Beauchamp]

At this point does worrying about that make much sense? They already are in the worst 5 records. Fans will come to see Plouffe, Mauer, Morneau etc. If Willingham gets traded there will be young guys to come watch too.

You worry about trading Willingham because the move makes the team a much worse one through the end of at least 2013, maybe longer. If someone is willing to offer the Twins enough to make losing Willingham a non-issue, then you do it. Otherwise, you keep the best right-handed hitter on the team. Span is far more expendable than Willingham.

[Mike Sixel]

Terry Ryan has never once traded a package of minor league prospects for an in his prime player. Never. Not one time. Why do you think he would do that now? Every player on this roster is available, Ryan said that on the radio yesterday, and he's right. This team lost 99 games last year, and will likely lose around 90 this year. There is almost no help in AAA that looks likely to be successful (though it is possible Hendriks can be a 4/5 starter). They have to do something, something out of character. I'd bet they are more likely to sign FA(s), than to trade what few prospects they have.

[Bojangles]

Terry Ryan has never once traded a package of minor league prospects for an in his prime player. Never. Not one time. Why do you think he would do that now? Every player on this roster is available, Ryan said that on the radio yesterday, and he's right. This team lost 99 games last year, and will likely lose around 90 this year. There is almost no help in AAA that looks likely to be successful (though it is possible Hendriks can be a 4/5 starter). They have to do something, something out of character. I'd bet they are more likely to sign FA(s), than to trade what few prospects they have.

You know you can start your own thread if you feel the need to complain about something that no one else is talking about.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Terry Ryan has never once traded a package of minor league prospects for an in his prime player. Never. Not one time. Why do you think he would do that now? Every player on this roster is available, Ryan said that on the radio yesterday, and he's right. This team lost 99 games last year, and will likely lose around 90 this year. There is almost no help in AAA that looks likely to be successful (though it is possible Hendriks can be a 4/5 starter). They have to do something, something out of character. I'd bet they are more likely to sign FA(s), than to trade what few prospects they have.

 

The AJ trade says otherwise....