La Velle E Neal: Molitor Leaning Towards Having May in Twins Bullpen

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

"Moving Wade Davis to the bullpen is a waste of 130 innings from a major league starter", said someone somewhere in the KC Royals universe.  

No one said that, sorry.  Davis was 28 years old when KC moved him to the bullpen, and he had 3 full MLB seasons as a starter with progressively worse ERA+ figures of 96, 85, and 78.

[tobi0040]

I hope most can agree with these two thoughts:

 

It is too early to make conclusions about Trevor May and where his best role is.

 

If he is one of the best arms we have, we shouldn't be moving him around to accomodate Milone or Nolasco. 

 

These sound pretty sensible to me.

[d-mac]

 

Hughes' 2015 was more of an aberration than 2014, which was also an outlier in the other direction but Phil's 2015 was way off the norm for his career.

 

Career K%: 19.3%

2015 K%: 14.4%

 

Career Swinging Strike: 8.2%

2015 Swinging Strike: 5.2%

 

Career Contact Rate: 83.7%

2015 Contact Rate: 89.2%

 

Career fastball velo: 92.1 mph

2015 fastball velo: 90.7 mph

 

Hughes is only entering his age 30 season. He should be in the rotation because he has upside. Maybe not year in, year out 2014 upside but the guy can pitch and pitch well.

 

Upside? You said it yourself, "...entering his age 30 season." Decline in fastball velo. Check. Decline in strike out rate. Check. Spike in contact rate. Check. Career high in HR/FB. Check. He's trending the wrong way, Brock. 

 

He's got a career 4.34/4.06/4.10 (ERA/FIP/xFIP). Last year, 4.40/4.70/4.31- that looks a lot more like 2011, 2012, and 2013 with the Yankees. He's throwing more strikes and a lower velocity than ever before and with a lack of a third pitch is not a good combination. 

[tobi0040]

 

No one said that, sorry.  Davis was 28 years old when KC moved him to the bullpen, and he had 3 full MLB seasons as a starter with progressively worse ERA+ figures of 96, 85, and 78.

 

If memory serves, he had just been given a 4 or 5 year deal a season prior that KC was on the hook for.  So it was probably a desperation move that worked out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Upside? You said it yourself, "...entering his age 30 season." Decline in fastball velo. Check. Decline in strike out rate. Check. Spike in contact rate. Check. Career high in HR/FB. Check. He's trending the wrong way, Brock.

One season where he struggled with dead arm and was pulled from the rotation for a month does not mean he's in decline.

 

Is it a possibility? Sure... But I think it's unlikely. What I think is more likely is that Hughes had a nagging injury all season and never pitched fully healthy.

 

Those numbers aren't "trending the wrong way". They're an enormous difference from previous years and can't be explained away with "well, he's 29 years old". A 5+% drop in K rate? No, that's not a typical decline phase for a 29 year old pitcher. That's "something is wrong with the guy" territory.

 

Even considering removing Hughes from the rotation at this point in time is the type of knee-jerk reaction that should get any general manager or on-field manager fired on the spot for gross incompetence.

 

If Phil shows up to spring training and is throwing 90 mph in late March, then you reevaluate the situation. Not now. Not today. It shouldn't even be on the table.

[d-mac]

 

"Moving Wade Davis to the bullpen is a waste of 130 innings from a major league starter", said someone somewhere in the KC Royals universe.  

 

Innings are an irrelevant statistic, quality innings that impact wins and losses matter much more.  If May can lock down the 8th inning virtually every night for the Twins this season, then the number of innings he pitches is irrelevant.  

 

You seriously did not just compare Davis to May. Davis had 3.5x more starts as May in the majors and an ERA of 4.57 and xFIP of 4.50. May>>>>>>>>> Davis.

[dougkoebernick]

I would think that they are looking for quality as they already have a lot of quantity in their farm system. 

 I get the feeling that the Twins are still looking for quantity, and not quality in their bullpen choices... 

 

 

[markos]

 

He's still young, and learning. He only has 25 major league starts under his belt. He improved alot from last fall to this past spring. Give him some time to figure it out. But the only way he can do that is in the starting rotation. 

I'm not willing to ignore the ~800 minor league innings where he exhibited the exact same issues.

[dougkoebernick]

Could not agree more. Great post.

One season where he struggled with dead arm and was pulled from the rotation for a month does not mean he's in decline.

 

Is it a possibility? Sure... But I think it's unlikely. What I think is more likely is that Hughes had a nagging injury all season and never pitched fully healthy.

 

Those numbers aren't "trending the wrong way". They're an enormous difference from previous years and can't be explained away with "well, he's 29 years old". A 5+% drop in K rate? No, that's not a typical decline phase for a 29 year old pitcher. That's "something is wrong with the guy" territory.

 

Even considering removing Hughes from the rotation at this point in time is the type of knee-jerk reaction that should get any general manager or on-field manager fired on the spot for gross incompetence.

 

If Phil shows up to spring training and is throwing 90 mph in late March, then you reevaluate the situation. Not now. Not today. It shouldn't even be on the table.

 

[laloesch]

 

This was a discussion point with Chief on another board.   If you think he is a #4 starter then the bullpen is a very obvious choice.    That is not the ceiling I see on him at all.   If I had to qualify it I would expect him to be a #2 and don't know his ceiling.   The big rip on him was always his command, not his stuff.  Now he has made command a strength instead of a weakness.   I discount his final starts in 2014 and his first ones in 2015 to nerves and confidence.     He looks like he is in control now and I think what he showed in his last 9 starts and his bullpen stats as what we can look for in the future.   He has command and stuff which I think would result in much closer to a 3 ERA.   I don't know what that makes him in peoples's mind as far as a # of starter.   I just know a 3 ERA is almost a run better than anything we have had in quite a while.   

 

While I understand May can be an asset in the bullpen and will be disappointed if he doesn't start I won't be mad about it.       If Duffey pitches well in ST and is not in the rotation, then I will be mad.   He earned his shot in the minors and was the best starter down the stretch last year.    This should make him the guy that has a spot to lose rather than be the guy that has to prove himself over others.   If May is in the pen the pecking order should be Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Milone, Hughes, Berrios and Nolasco.   The first three should be written in ink.   Milone and Hughes can be switched and Berrios and Nolasco can be switched but Duffey should be in there til he proves he shouldn't be.

 

I disagree.  May should trump Berrios because he hasn't even debutted yet.  May should trump Nolasco for sure because your manager ALWAYS puts the best players first.

[laloesch]

 

I'm pretty sure Ryan has said May will begin as a starter in ST, so this almost sounds like Molitor holding May hostage for relief help. Solution: acquire a reliever for 2016, Ryan!

 

Maybe that's the angle, maybe not.  Molitor was pretty outspoken back in his playing days, so he could be spilling the insider beans so to speak.  Terry Ryan however is a double talker so I take what he says with a grain of salt.

[nicksaviking]

 

I haven't concluded that... but scouting reports and performance have said he's probably a #4 now, and he can be a #3. #2s in MLB are pretty rare. Could he be that... maybe?

 

I like that he'll get a shot in spring. I hope he gets a real shot. But, I think with the numbers game as it is, he is most likely to go to the bullpen.

 

I don't understand this argument though, because May isn't competing against #1s #2s and #3s for a rotation spot.  I don't see how anyone could watch the games or look at the numbers and say that May was any worse than the third best starter for this team in 2015, and that's the negative view.  A much stronger case could have been made that he was the best or second best.

 

On a side note, I don't care if a guy was the 20th best starter for the team last year, the rotation needs some guys that can miss bats.  I'd rather give Meyer a shot than Nolasco or Milone if we aren't planning to give the best guys the jobs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If memory serves, he had just been given a 4 or 5 year deal a season prior that KC was on the hook for.  So it was probably a desperation move that worked out.

Actually Tampa used Davis exclusively out of the pen one season and he was pretty darn good, admittedly low leverage.  As a reliever, he represented a notable piece going to KC in the Shields-Myers swap.  A lot of folks were very confused when KC tried to move him back to starter, and stuck with it for a full season at that.

 

In any case, Davis had pretty thoroughly failed as a starter before his teams moved him to relief.

[d-mac]

 

I'm not willing to ignore the ~800 minor league innings where he exhibited the exact same issues.

 

What issues exactly? All I see are 775 innings of a solid K/9 being maintained through all levels of the minors and a questionable walk rate. Then in 2014 it appears he has made an adjustment and significantly cut down his walk rate in AAA and then carried it over to the majors this year. You completely dismiss the possibility out-of-hand that he maybe, possibly, made an adjustment?

[Seth Stohs]

 

If May is probably a number #4 -- what does that make the rest of our rotation?

 

Just for fun, I'd say:

 

Ervin Santana is a solid #3.

Phil Hughes was a #2 in 2014, a #6 in 2015... I think he's a 3.5.

Kyle Gibson would probably classify as a 3.

Duffey will hopefully be a #3, though at times last year, he played the part of #2.

Berrios will hopefully be a #2.

Milone is probably a 4ish.

 

And I think May can be a solid #4 with potential to be a 3. 

[DaveW]

The worst part about this is it almost guarantees us that Ryan isn't going to actually go out and get us a late inning RP that this team sorely needs (more than one really) and no, bringing in a Rodney or some random LOOGY doesn't count.

 

If we go into the season with all of Nolasco, Plouffe and Milone on the 25 man roster I will probably just cancel my MLB.tv subscription, if that is the case it is apparent that Ryan has no desire to have the Twins compete in 2016, and if that is the case, how long do we have to wait until we reasonably can "Try" to build a playoff team?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Even considering removing Hughes from the rotation at this point in time is the type of knee-jerk reaction that should get any general manager or on-field manager fired on the spot for gross incompetence.

I don't know, Hughes was pretty good in his bullpen season back in the day, and he's always been inconsistent as a starter.  If he was still on his 3/24 contract, and it didn't come with an explicit promise to start throughout, I think you'd have to consider it, no?  Less desirable on his re-negotiated contract, but putting the money aside, I think there is still an argument for it.  I'd definitely explore trading another starter or two before that, though.

[DaveW]

 

 

Just for fun, I'd say:

 

Ervin Santana is a solid #3.

Phil Hughes was a #2 in 2014, a #6 in 2015... I think he's a 3.5.

Kyle Gibson would probably classify as a 3.

Duffey will hopefully be a #3, though at times last year, he played the part of #2.

Berrios will hopefully be a #2.

Milone is probably a 4ish.

 

And I think May can be a solid #4 with potential to be a 3. 

I don't understand how you have Duffey so far ahead of May. I like both of them, but I think their floors are similar but May has a higher ceiling.

[d-mac]

 

One season where he struggled with dead arm and was pulled from the rotation for a month does not mean he's in decline.

 

Is it a possibility? Sure... But I think it's unlikely. What I think is more likely is that Hughes had a nagging injury all season and never pitched fully healthy.

 

Those numbers aren't "trending the wrong way". They're an enormous difference from previous years and can't be explained away with "well, he's 29 years old". A 5+% drop in K rate? No, that's not a typical decline phase for a 29 year old pitcher. That's "something is wrong with the guy" territory.

 

Even considering removing Hughes from the rotation at this point in time is the type of knee-jerk reaction that should get any general manager or on-field manager fired on the spot for gross incompetence.

 

If Phil shows up to spring training and is throwing 90 mph in late March, then you reevaluate the situation. Not now. Not today. It shouldn't even be on the table.

 

You possibly could be right and he was injured. But I still think a career ERA of 4.46 and xFIP of 4.17 as a starter is worse than what May could do. Hughes (nor Santana for that matter) has never been a shining example throughout his career. 

[tobi0040]

 

Just for fun, I'd say:

 

Ervin Santana is a solid #3.

Phil Hughes was a #2 in 2014, a #6 in 2015... I think he's a 3.5.

Kyle Gibson would probably classify as a 3.

Duffey will hopefully be a #3, though at times last year, he played the part of #2.

Berrios will hopefully be a #2.

Milone is probably a 4ish.

 

And I think May can be a solid #4 with potential to be a 3. 

 

I think we are concluding different things becasuse we are starting from a different spot.  You believe May has the "potential" to be what Gibson IS.  I believe May's potential is much higher than what Gibson is.  Frankly, I think May has more potential than Gibson.

 

 

[DaveW]

 

I think we are concluding different things becasuse we are starting from a different spot.  You believe May has the "potential" to be what Gibson IS.  I believe May's potential is much higher than what Gibson is.  Frankly, I think May has more potential than Gibson.

Agreed, I have said a few times that Gibson is the guy they should be looking to trade, he would bring back some nice value and the Twins have plenty of guys who can match his production moving forward.

 

Gibson for Gary Sanchez would have been nice...

[markos]

 

What issues exactly? All I see are 775 innings of a solid K/9 being maintained through all levels of the minors and a questionable walk rate. Then in 2014 it appears he has made an adjustment and significantly cut down his walk rate in AAA and then carried it over to the majors this year. You completely dismiss the possibility out-of-hand that he maybe, possibly, made an adjustment?

He has maintained a 5%-10% gap between his strikeout rate with bases empty versus runners on for his entire career, both minors and majors. Last year it was 24.9% vs 19.2%. MLB average is about 2%. So he gives up a lot more contact, and subsequently hits, with runners on base relative to the model that FIP uses. Therefore, it is quite possible that he will give up more runs than FIP would predict.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't know, Hughes was pretty good in his bullpen season back in the day, and he's always been inconsistent as a starter.  If he was still on his 3/24 contract, and it didn't come with an explicit promise to start throughout, I think you'd have to consider it, no?  Less desirable on his re-negotiated contract, but putting the money aside, I think there is still an argument for it.  I'd definitely explore trading another starter or two before that, though.

Eh, I still doubt I'd explore the option. It's possible - maybe even likely - Nolasco can be effective in the pen and Milone was nasty against lefties last season. I'd relegate those two to the bullpen before I considered Hughes, provided Phil looked healthy.

[Loosey]

 

I understand why they're moving in this direction but I don't have to like it.

 

May should be starting over either Nolasco or Milone.

 

Though I disagree that May should be starting over the likes of Hughes or Santana (particularly Hughes). While Trevor has upside, he hasn't shown the ability to come anywhere near Hughes' 2014 season, either in metrics or innings pitched. Hughes gets the nod before May, as do Gibson and Santana due to consistency, albeit mediocre consistency.

 

After that, it should be a free-for-all for the two remaining spots in the rotation.

Maybe if May goes and cries about it like Pelfrey did he will get put back into the rotation.

[tobi0040]

 

Eh, I still doubt I'd explore the option. It's possible - maybe even likely - Nolasco can be effective in the pen and Milone was nasty against lefties last season. I'd relegate those two to the bullpen before I considered Hughes, provided Phil looked healthy.

 

nothing to lose at this point

[nicksaviking]

 

Just for fun, I'd say:

 

Ervin Santana is a solid #3.

Phil Hughes was a #2 in 2014, a #6 in 2015... I think he's a 3.5.

Kyle Gibson would probably classify as a 3.

Duffey will hopefully be a #3, though at times last year, he played the part of #2.

Berrios will hopefully be a #2.

Milone is probably a 4ish.

 

And I think May can be a solid #4 with potential to be a 3. 

 

Even with these numbers, doesn't that still put your assessment of May's current position and ceiling ahead of Hughes and Milone?

 

My frustration is that I know the organization values youth because they are very loathe to trade prospects, as am I.  However this only seems to be on paper as they do not commit to the youth.  They need to see that youth is not a liability, it is gigantic advantage both in terms of physical abilities and the nature of their contracts, which make them so much easier to de-commit if they do not work out.

 

The Twins appear to believe that experience is a much more important trait. Unfortunately because of this and the contracts that come with experience, they provide such a long leash to these guys. They really, really have to stop giving the vets priority over youth, it has to be the other way around if this team is going to turn the corner.

[SwainZag]

 

Agreed, I have said a few times that Gibson is the guy they should be looking to trade, he would bring back some nice value and the Twins have plenty of guys who can match his production moving forward.

 

Gibson for Gary Sanchez would have been nice...

 

Maybe I am just a Gibson fanboy, but why would they look to trade him?  He just finished his 2nd full season after a 10 start cup of coffee in 2013.  He is 28 and has two productive years under his belt, improved his K's 2 straight years now and he keeps the ball in the ballpark.  While I don't think he will ever become a dominant starter, if he can figure out how to stay more productive through the 2nd half of the season I think he is a very nice and cheap piece for any rotation.

 

Gibson was essentially just as good as Jeff Samardzija last season. Gibson walked more, Samardzija gave up more HR and he just signed a huge contract.  

[DaveW]

 

Maybe I am just a Gibson fanboy, but why would they look to trade him? 

I think he is a solid pitcher, but as you mentioned, not a front end guy. With his results and team control I think the Twins could get a nice haul in return (high upside prospects? Catcher help? etc) Plus it opens up a spot for the May/Duffey/Berrios of the world.

[Buford_T_Justice]

I wouldn't be surprised to go north with a rotation of Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco and Milone. May starts out as long relief, with Duffey and Berrios going to AAA even though they have nothing left to prove there.

 

I'll be less surprised when the vast majority of Twins Daily calls it a "worst case scenario." I'm not sure I would immediately join in, because that means that everyone is still healthy.

 

While we wait for one of our starters to go on the DL, there is also a real possibility that some other team's #3, 4 or 5 starter goes on the DL and they look at our plethora of "innings eaters" as a possibility. By June, we could have easily replaced 4/5 of our rotation with better (although relatively untested) talent.

 

Yes, it's ridiculous to be wringing our hands in December, but it's a way better use of my time than approving change requests. Keep it coming!

[twinsnorth49]

 

I think May is a necessity in the pen, even IF they add two arms of his caliber, and they aren't going to add even one.

Plus I think May is way overrated around here as a starter.

I know you've been a  staunch defender of May in the pen Chief, and I'm not necessarily arguing that, but two questions,

 

1. Why commit May to the pen now when there are still available, legitimate arms out there for that role, i.e. Bastardo. May makes more sense in the pen if the team had stronger starting pitching and I don't see that as easy to solve as improving the bullpen.

 

2. Why do you think he's overrated as a starter?