Twins playing Moneyball?

[drjim]

Recent moves suggest the Twins are prioritizing power in their hitters, sometimes at the expense of defense (especially at the corners). Is it possible they are attempting to exploit an undervalued asset?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-we-undervaluing-the-slugger-now/

[Mike Sixel]

Power is now undervalued? that seems, unlikely.....as the article points out, the market is not undervaluing power, the crowd is. At least that is the implication behind the paywall/book link, I assume.

[DaveW]

 

Recent moves suggest the Twins are prioritizing power in their hitters, sometimes at the expense of defense (especially at the corners). Is it possible they are attempting to exploit an undervalued asset?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-we-undervaluing-the-slugger-now/

By recent moves you mean Pak?

Murphy doesn't have any real power.

[drjim]

By recent moves you mean Pak?

Murphy doesn't have any real power.

And the Herrmann trade and moving Hicks to open up space for Arcia (or Sano) and the probable Plouffe Sano swap.

[nicksaviking]

I was under the impression that more than power, Moneyball prioritized OBP, and the Twins just traded Aaron Hicks. 

 

I guess it's still TBD, but getting rid of Rosario, Plouffe, Arcia and Suzuki would make more Moneyball sense (cents) it would seem to me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was under the impression that more than power, Moneyball prioritized OBP, and the Twins just traded Aaron Hicks.

"Moneyball" actually means taking advantage of a market inefficiency.  At the time of the book "Moneyball", that was OBP.  The poster is asking if it has shifted to power.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And the Herrmann trade and moving Hicks to open up space for Arcia (or Sano) and the probable Plouffe Sano swap.

I think they took what they could get in Herrmann.  I don't think the dude was Arizona's 29th ranked prospect due to an MLB market inefficiency.

 

Also, I don't think moving Hicks was primarily to open up space for Arcia whom they buried this past season anyway.  Nor would I call a Plouffe trade "probable" at the moment, although I could be proven wrong.

 

Looks like the gist of the article is that 1B/DH could be in line for a WAR boost via refiguring the positional adjustments.  Not really clear whether it caused a market inefficiency, particularly a trickle-down one (which would have had to trickle down a long ways to affect Palka and even Park).

 

They've also talked about selling sluggers Colabello & Vargas to Korea, and actually waived Colabello last winter instead.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I thought the Twins might have been playing a FIP-based Moneyball a couple winters ago, with Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Hughes, but given what we've seen since both in pitching and defense here, I don't think that was the case.

[drjim]

For the record I wasn't doing a complete breakdown of the article, it just got me thinking there could be gains by swinging back on the defense vs power continuum.

[nicksaviking]

 

For the record I wasn't doing a complete breakdown of the article, it just got me thinking there could be gains by swinging back on the defense vs power continuum.

 

Well considering it's basically the exact opposite approach of the World Series champs, you're right, it might get undervalued as teams tend to copycat. 

 

I was all for being a copycat at least in terms of high OBP/low strikeouts, but the Twins are way too deep into the heavy power/heavy strikeouts now, I think it's too late to go back, might as well give the classic Earl Weaver approach a shot first.

[gopherman23]

If we are eschewing defense for power, we should just go with the following lineup:

 

CF Buxton

2B Dozier

3B Sano

LF Arcia

1B Park

DH Vargas

SS Plouffe

RF Walker

C Murphy

 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I was all for being a copycat at least in terms of high OBP/low strikeouts, but the Twins are way too deep into the heavy power/heavy strikeouts now, I think it's too late to go back, might as well give the classic Earl Weaver approach a shot first.

 So, maybe a better question is are the Twins taking a completely backwards approach to winning? Please say no.

[Major League Ready]

Seems like a big leap to jump to the conclusion that the Twins are not valuing Defense.  Hicks was going to be replaced by Buxton which is a defensive improvement.  That trade also improved defense at catcher.   The most likely replacement for Hicks beyond the first couple months of 2016 is Kepler which should only be a modest decline in defense over Hicks in a corner OF position.  Overall, that trade will make the team better defensively.  Many people here have stated that all of the OF options made Hicks more valuable as a trade chip given he can play CF so this does not seem to point to a change in Philosophy.

 

The only other move they have made of any significance is Park.   What do you expect out of a move for a DH/1B?

 

The Hermann trade is much more likely that they felt Palka was the best return they were going to get for Hermann.

[DaveW]

 

And the Herrmann trade and moving Hicks to open up space for Arcia (or Sano) and the probable Plouffe Sano swap.

Hermann was traded for anything they could get. Hicks was traded to make room for Buxton to man CF moving forward, I don't think the Twins are doing anything to open up space for Arcia, he seems to be in the dog house a bit.

[DaveW]

Also I will add that I don't think adding power is a market inefficiency or "money ball" in any real way. If it was, then guys like Chris Davis wouldn't be set to make 100+ million this off-season.

 

 

 

The long ball has always been sexy/huge crowd draw etc

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, chicks dig the long ball. 

 

I think something could be said that perhaps the Twins feel that a lack of Ks might be overvalued a bit and are targeting guys that K more (with power and perhaps some OBP) because teams are passing those types of guys by a bit... who knows.  Or it simply could be Ashburry's path of least resistance.  Both Murphy and Palka were pretty good gets for what was given up.

[David HK]

 

If we are eschewing defense for power, we should just go with the following lineup:

CF Buxton
2B Dozier
3B Sano
LF Arcia
1B Park
DH Vargas
SS Plouffe
RF Walker
C Murphy

Heh... I love it!  And every game an exciting 11-8 slugfest!  

[Minniman]

 

yeah, chicks dig the long ball. 

 

I think something could be said that perhaps the Twins feel that a lack of Ks might be overvalued a bit and are targeting guys that K more (with power and perhaps some OBP) because teams are passing those types of guys by a bit... who knows.  Or it simply could be Ashburry's path of least resistance.  Both Murphy and Palka were pretty good gets for what was given up.

 

A study came out a decade ago showing that the power of the home run was undervalued. The study showed that the power hitters should get more at bats and be closer to the top of the order. This goes against the Earl Weaver three run homer mantra, but the statistics were convincing.

 

In any case, the Twins should have learned from David Ortiz that trying to make power hitters into third strike ball slappers actually reduced their production. In Boston, Ron Jackson told Ortiz to swing away because three home run rips are better than two in the long run for that type of hitter. Big Papi increased home runs, batting average, and walks by being the hitter he was rather than what the Twins wanted him to be.

[Platoon]

Not sure if there is a one size fits all here. I like power as much as the next guy. But if your pitching staff is fly ball PTC oriented, you better have someone in the OF to run down those bombs. Plus your park configuration is in play also. Good baseball teams are balanced, you can't construct them willy nilly. I realize this is easier said than done, but it's part of a winning equation.

[ashbury]

In Boston, Ron Jackson told Ortiz to swing away

Papa Jack, AKA Poppa Up? He was hitting coach for the Sox at the time? I don't remember that - I don't even remember forgetting it. He's kind of an ironic guru for a power hitter. He did have that 56 homer season - oh wait that was his 10 year career.

[Minniman]

 

Papa Jack, AKA Poppa Up? He was hitting coach for the Sox at the time? I don't remember that - I don't even remember forgetting it. He's kind of an ironic guru for a power hitter. He did have that 56 homer season - oh wait that was his 10 year career.

 

Knowing what to do is not always the same as having the skill to do it.

 

from wiki ...

 

In his first two seasons with Boston (as hitting coach), the Red Sox led the majors in runs, batting average, doubles, extra-base hits, total bases, on-base percentage and slugging average. In 2003 the Sox set ML records for extra-base hits, total bases and slugging, finishing one off the major league lead with 238 home runs. The Red Sox tied an ML record with 373 doubles in 2004.

 

 

[big dog]

And he went from coaching the Sox in the WS to coaching Round Rock 3 years later. Quite a turn.

[Eris]

 

In any case, the Twins should have learned from David Ortiz that trying to make power hitters into third strike ball slappers actually reduced their production. In Boston, Ron Jackson told Ortiz to swing away because three home run rips are better than two in the long run for that type of hitter. Big Papi increased home runs, batting average, and walks by being the hitter he was rather than what the Twins wanted him to be.

The situation with Big Papi is far more complicated than the Twins trying to turn him into a high contact hitter.   As I recall, the Twins questioned his work ethic and ability to recover from a wrist injury.  From Fangraphs it is interesting to note that his K% went down at Boston and his HR went up and there was a significant increase in ISO.  Steroids could also be a factor in this.  I would like to think (because I am Twins fan) that the Twins were a relatively clean team and discourage this type of abuse, but we will never really know because 96 of the 100 players who failed the confidential drug testing have never been disclosed (although the numbers average out to about 3 players / team)

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/26/david-ortiz-still-haunted-failed-drug-test/Cvcd1E7am8OybqLpNA6uKP/story.html

[DaveW]

The twins completely and utterly screwed up when they let Ortiz walk, any narrative suggesting that it wasn't a huge blunder is just false. Dude had 20 HR in like 90 games the year prior, and they let him walk over 1.5 million or so.

 

The twins weren't a clean team anyways, they have had multiple guys busted for roids (fwiw Papi has never been suspended a single game and continues to do nothing but mash)

[lightfoot789]

 

CF Buxton
2B Dozier
3B Sano
LF Arcia
1B Park
DH Vargas
SS Plouffe
RF Walker
C Murphy

Heh... I love it!  And every game an exciting 11-8 slugfest!  

One thing has nothing to do with the Pitching.  I'd take either the 11 or the 8 if I'm a Twins fan.  Every team needs a game changer for when those BB don't get you to 2nd and 3rd base.  Sometimes that 1 swing wonder comes in handy.  1 XBH last year by all pinch hitters on the Twins.  Worst in baseball! - Game Changers usually have some pop