Trade Dozier, Plouffe, now

[Thrylos]

 

Anything's possible, and eventually I think he will, but Polanco's OPS at double-A in 2015 was only .739.

 

The AL average OPS was .730, so don't you think jumping him two levels next year might suppress his numbers just a little (or even a lot), to well below league average?

 

Alright.  Sub "Sano" with "Polanco" and see what happened?

Polanco is that good and that ready...

[ashbury]

Alright.  Sub "Sano" with "Polanco" and see what happened?

Polanco is that good and that ready...

You're referring to Sano's two half-seasons in AA and the majors, OPSing .918 and .916 respectively?

 

Aside from smaller sample size when cutting a season in half, recall that he was coming back from very major surgery. He started slow in AA - OPS .686 through May 6. (Willfully but not exhaustively cherry-picked dates^*, I'll admit. ) Give him a little slack for that? Afterward his AA numbers, even smaller sample sized I'll also admit, is a more Herculean 1.034. Allow for a little drop-off when facing MLB pitchers, and I'll stick with my original rough analysis regarding Polanco thankyewverymuch.

 

* His final 4 games in Chattanooga Sano OPSed 1.937. Quite the MLB drop-off. Now THERE's some cherry pickin', when I start to put my mind to it.

[DocBauer]

Personally, I believe Dozier's only problem is getting worn out by the second half of the past couple of seasons. I know he's very good and we rely on him, and at times he has practically carried the offense each of the past 2 first halves, but can't the guy get a day off once in a while? 

 

Hey, I'm intrigued by Polanco and I think he's going to be good...versatile...and clutch. But I don't believe he's ready to replace Dozier yet.

 

I have maintained that you trade Plouffe for the right deal, and that deal might just be that young catcher if you can find him. But my problem with trading him is the OF. Example: Buxton begins the season in the minors. Hicks begins the season in CF. Who is in RF? Arcia? Then who is the DH? With Plouffe around, there is just less un-certainty with the lineup as you still have the Plouffe/Sano/Mauer 3B/1B/DH rotation.

[Trov]

For the right deal I would be okay with trading both.  Dozier needs to learn how to hit a ball to the opposite field.  My problem with him is he does not hit well with runners on base, but he hits HR like he should hit lower in the lineup to drive in runs, but he does not hit when runners on.  The book is out on him, and he only hits mistake fastballs up and in.  Once he shows he will drive the fastballs away to right field for hits he will get more inside pitches that are not just mistakes.

[bluechipper]

 

Polanco's bat is probably not ready. Sano's glove is probably not ready.

 

I wish it was instead like the situation when Mauer came up, glove and bat both ready, and trading AJ was obvious. But it's not.

 

Trading even Plouffe is IMO a bigger gamble than many fans see, and trading both these veterans invites some kind of infield disaster that makes 2016 a lost season.

 

Midseason 2016, maybe Polanco has used his bat at AAA to knock on the major league door, and Sano has settled into making most of the plays we've finally become accustomed to seeing at 3B for a couple of seasons now. That'll be the time to look into trading either of the two vets.

How is Sano going to improve his fielding if Plouffe is still on the team?

[ashbury]

How is Sano going to improve his fielding if Plouffe is still on the team?

Through lots of drills, and Grapefruit League game time, during spring. Then at the start of regular season, if the results are promising, aim for about half his games at 3B and half at DH. Shuffle Plouffe and Mauer among 1B/DH to allow for this. At whatever point the on-field staff feels he's become solid enough (and the bar doesn't have to be super high, maybe it will be during spring training), you can pursue trading Plouffe.

 

While, if Sano's looking shaky at 3B, either coming out of spring training or sometime early into the season, then you've still got Plouffe to man the position while you decide what Plan B with Sano needs to be.

 

If Sano hadn't suffered the injuries that limited him to batting-only during the last weeks of the season, maybe there would be better progress in his fielding, and thereby confidence, to allow for trading Plouffe during this off-season. But it is what it is; he looked raw in the field and then didn't get the chance to adjust to the major league level with his glove.

 

I don't think what I'm proposing is super-cautious. The injuries to our best prospects have thrown a monkey wrench into the team's plans.

[Willihammer]

What if Mauer's decline continues or accelerates? Sure would be nice to be able to shift Plouffe over and slot in Sano at third. Would open a hole at DH tho.

[Physics Guy]

What if Mauer's decline continues or accelerates? Sure would be nice to be able to shift Plouffe over and slot in Sano at third. Would open a hole at DH tho.

Wouldn't it make more sense to keep the good 3B at 3B and move the guy who probably ends up at 1B anyways?

[jimbo92107]

I have a feeling the Twins will look at Polanco as a utility man early in his pro career. He can sub for 2B to give Dozier a day off, then SS to give Esco a break, then slide in at 3B for a day or two if Sano needs to DH. 

 

Dozier doesn't go anywhere for at least one more season while the team evaluates possible replacements. If Polanco shines in the middle infield, then maybe a trade happens next season for Dozier. Otherwise, no.

 

Plouffe is trickier. He's now a very solid third baseman with 20+ homer pop. A lot of teams wouldn't mind having that, but they won't trade a star catcher for it. Meanwhile they can still move him around to 1B when Mauer needs a day off, even to a corner OF if needed, and the guy really is a steady fielder now. Anybody ready to say that about Miguel Sano and his gimpy hammy?

 

I'd still like to see how Stuart Turner looks in spring training. He's supposed to have a good arm down to second. If he can hit a lick, there may not be much need for a second catcher. 

[jokin]

 

 

 

 

I'd still like to see how Stuart Turner looks in spring training. He's supposed to have a good arm down to second. If he can hit a lick, there may not be much need for a second catcher. 

 

Unfortunately, Turner hasn't shown to this point that he can even hit half a lick. Fortunately, a glimpse of hope did spring up over the last 50 games this year- (including the playoff games)- Turner slashed .269/.384/.340/(.724), with a 114 wRC+... plus a really stellar 14.7% BB/16.2% K ratio.

 

I suspect the Twins will push hardest for acquiring a veteran catcher via FA or trade, giving Turner a chance to perform well enough in Rochester, and very importantly, get regular everday reps both at, and behind, the plate while getting to know all of his pitchers in game situations.  And then, if all goes according to the best-case scenario- look to claim a spot from one of the veterans in July.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't see any reason to keep Plouffe as fielding insurance. If this team doesn't think Sano can field they should know that already from their minor league field staff.

 

Molitor wants to play him there, as far as I'm concerned that's an endorsement of ability. We don't need spring training to decide it. So shop Plouffe and see if you can land something spicy.

[bluechipper]

 

I don't see any reason to keep Plouffe as fielding insurance. If this team doesn't think Sano can field they should know that already from their minor league field staff.

Molitor wants to play him there, as far as I'm concerned that's an endorsement of ability. We don't need spring training to decide it. So shop Plouffe and see if you can land something spicy.

I totally agree. I also don't really see how just giving Sano occasional starts at third will help him improve his fielding in the long run. I think he needs to be penciled in as the everyday third basemen, and I'm sure he will settle in and be fine there.

[jokin]

 

I totally agree. I also don't really see how just giving Sano occasional starts at third will help him improve his fielding in the long run. I think he needs to be penciled in as the everyday third basemen, and I'm sure he will settle in and be fine there.

 

Someone brought up Sano's hammy issue as a potential impediment to the Twins just handing the position to him.  Does anyone know if this has hamstring-thing has ever been an issue previous to 2015 with him? 

[mnfanforlife]

As stated in the original post....both Dozier and Plouffe could greatly contribute to the Twins in 2016. But, we know the limitations of both all too well. And we should be able to agree that Sano has much more long term potential at 3B, while Polanco or Nick Gordon could be a better long-term option at 2B, than Plouffe and Dozier, respectively.

 

I am still not sold on Gordon sticking at SS. And I think Molitor will, rightfully, give the starting job to Eduardo Escobar for the foreseeable future.

[mnfanforlife]

Also, if the Twins were able to find a suitable trade partner for Dozier....Danny Santana would love a shot to make the club as the everyday second baseman. An open competition between Santana and Polanco would be good spring time entertainment.

[bluechipper]

 

Someone brought up Sano's hammy issue as a potential impediment to the Twins just handing the position to him.  Does anyone know if this has hamstring-thing has ever been an issue previous to 2015 with him? 

Paul Molitor didn't seem to think it would be an issue going forward. He called it "dangerous" for a player as young as Miguel Sano is to be locked into a DH role.http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/10/04/twinsights-keeping-miguel-sano-at-dh-could-be-dangerous-paul-molitor-says/

[bluechipper]

 

As stated in the original post....both Dozier and Plouffe could greatly contribute to the Twins in 2016. But, we know the limitations of both all too well. And we should be able to agree that Sano has much more long term potential at 3B, while Polanco or Nick Gordon could be a better long-term option at 2B, than Plouffe and Dozier, respectively.

 

I am still not sold on Gordon sticking at SS. And I think Molitor will, rightfully, give the starting job to Eduardo Escobar for the foreseeable future.

If Nick Gordon isn't a really good fielding shortstop by the time he's ready for the majors, then I doubt he'll have enough of a bat to have any real value at another position.

[mnfanforlife]

 

If Nick Gordon isn't a really good fielding shortstop by the time he's ready for the majors, then I doubt he'll have enough of a bat to have any real value at another position.

 

have you seen his brother? his bat would play just about anywhere, and the two brothers look pretty similar physically. Nick's bat looked pretty good in his 19-yr-old season at CR. My prediction: his offense gets him to the majors quickly, and if he can stick at SS, then...great

[bluechipper]

 

have you seen his brother? his bat would play just about anywhere, and the two brothers look pretty similar physically. Nick's bat looked pretty good in his 19-yr-old season at CR. My prediction: his offense gets him to the majors quickly, and if he can stick at SS, then...great

I don't think Nick is nearly as fast as Dee is, and that's where most of Dee's value comes from. Nick's bat will hopefully be better, and as a shortstop, he could be an all star, but second base is such an offensive position now that I don't know if he would be much more than average there.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see any reason to keep Plouffe as fielding insurance. If this team doesn't think Sano can field they should know that already from their minor league field staff.

 

Molitor wants to play him there, as far as I'm concerned that's an endorsement of ability. We don't need spring training to decide it. So shop Plouffe and see if you can land something spicy.

this whole thing confuses me. It's insurance against an unknown, a couple years in the minors doesn't prove anything that they should "know" already. Also, trusting Molitor and his assessment of guys, does the name Danny Santana ring a bell? He was 100% wrong about him last year.

 

The reason it is insurance is because you don't know with certainty at all about Sano's glove.

[Mike Sixel]

Paul Molitor didn't seem to think it would be an issue going forward. He called it "dangerous" for a player as young as Miguel Sano is to be locked into a DH role.http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2015/10/04/twinsights-keeping-miguel-sano-at-dh-could-be-dangerous-paul-molitor-says/

Playing DH next year does not LOCK him into DH forever, does it? that seems to be a bit specious.

[bluechipper]

 

Playing DH next year does not LOCK him into DH forever, does it? that seems to be a bit specious.

Playing in the field only a couple times a week won't do the Twins or Sano any good in regards to him improving that area of the game. And then next offseason, the same question of whether or not Sano can field would still be there, and there's a good chance that Plouffe won't have as much value as he does now.

[Mike Sixel]

Playing in the field only a couple times a week won't do the Twins or Sano any good in regards to him improving that area of the game. And then next offseason, the same question of whether or not Sano can field would still be there, and there's a good chance that Plouffe won't have as much value as he does now.

I don't agree, but that's ok. A 3B gets 1-3 chances a game, playing 2 times a week vs 6 times a week isn't going to change things that much. That's what practice is for. And, if Plouffe can't get a MLB player, or one that is here in the next year, I'd rather they actually try to win next year, instead of moving the target into the future.

[ashbury]

Playing in the field only a couple times a week won't do the Twins or Sano any good in regards to him improving that area of the game. And then next offseason, the same question of whether or not Sano can field would still be there, and there's a good chance that Plouffe won't have as much value as he does now.

If by midseason Sano is playing in the field only a couple times a week, it will mean the on-field staff sees a big problem, in which case we'll be glad Plouffe is still with us, allowing us to come up with some kind of Plan B for Sano. Conversely, midseason will be a practical time to trade Plouffe if he's truly expendable.

[bluechipper]

 

If by midseason Sano is playing in the field only a couple times a week, it will mean the on-field staff sees a big problem, in which case we'll be glad Plouffe is still with us, allowing us to come up with some kind of Plan B for Sano. Conversely, midseason will be a practical time to trade Plouffe if he's truly expendable.

So what are the Twins going to know midseason that they don't know now about Sano's fielding if Plouffe is starting at third everyday? I know he wasn't able to practice much fielding late this year because of injuries, but I would have to think that they have a good idea that he'll be fine there based on improvements he's made throughout his minor league career.

[bluechipper]

 

I don't agree, but that's ok. A 3B gets 1-3 chances a game, playing 2 times a week vs 6 times a week isn't going to change things that much. That's what practice is for. And, if Plouffe can't get a MLB player, or one that is here in the next year, I'd rather they actually try to win next year, instead of moving the target into the future.

I'm not totally against keeping Trevor Plouffe either, I just think it's going to slow down Sano's fielding development if they do.

[stringer bell]

I believe the first guy with a shot as a utility guy will be Danny Santana. He played quite a bit of second early in his minor league career and quite a bit of outfield for the Twins in 2014. He is out of options. If he hits closer to 2014 than 2015 in a roving role, he could be a real asset.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not totally against keeping Trevor Plouffe either, I just think it's going to slow down Sano's fielding development if they do.

that's a fair belief, I just don't think they grow much at 3B in game, but I could be 100% wrong on that.

[dxpavelka]

 

I could see Plouffe, don't see how they justify moving Dozier though.  Had a down 2nd half but overall numbers over past 2 1/2 seasons are very very good .240/322/.435/.747 stat line over those years. 

That's solid for anywhere and very good for 2B, especially when you add plus defense to the equation.  So don't let his slow 2nd half fool you.  wins, homeruns, ,etc. count just as much in the 1st half as the 2nd half. 

 

Also, the idea of trading him midway through the year is a bit ridiculous if we're contending, which hopefully we will be.  So let's say he's again on pace for over 30 bombs and has an OPS over .800 at the break.  How on earth can anyone justify trading him away from a competing team.  That kind of trade just doesn't happen.   Much more likely that we trade away Polanco in that scenario.  IF dozier were to get moved it would have to be in the offseason or if we just suck next year. 
 

Actually the idea of NOT trading away at mid season a guy for whom the All-Star break seems like Kryptonite seems a bit ridiculous to me.  Would LOVE to see Dozier moved at mid season & Rosario moved into that spot and replaced in the OF with someone (Arcia, AB Walker?) with more power.  That being said, this organization will not trade a guy in the first year of a reasonably priced 4 year extension.

[ashbury]

So what are the Twins going to know midseason that they don't know now about Sano's fielding if Plouffe is starting at third everyday? I know he wasn't able to practice much fielding late this year because of injuries, but I would have to think that they have a good idea that he'll be fine there based on improvements he's made throughout his minor league career.

1. First, it's a strawman that if Sano isn't playing 3B every day then Plouffe must be playing 3B every day. Playing time can be shared, and the ratio need not be static.
2. Second, you are right that Sano's missed time due to injury was costly to the process.
3. Third, what "they don't know" isn't some static thing - what they want to see is whether he is making progress, because what we saw on the field from him was sometimes intriguing (stellar looking plays coming in on slow rollers and throwing off-balance) but too often inadequate (matador moves on hot smashes, poor tracking of popups). They know he's young and progress is expected, but adequacy must be demonstrated.
4. Fourth, infield drills and spring games will go a long way toward determining the amount of his playing time once the games count (and of course the drills continue). If he looks reliable in the games he plays in-season, Plouffe will soon be riding the pine (or DHing/1Bing) full time. And then it's time for a trade.
5. Profit!