Jepsen. The 1 Trade TR did make!

[Twinfan & Dad]

A lot was said of the lack of trades that TR made at the deadline however getting Jepson has proved to be the lifesaver to keep the Twins in the playoff hunt. Quality innings after his first appearance and with the injury and subpar performance of Perkins he has proven to be the best option along with FUTURE CLOSER Trevor May for closing out games. Give TR a little credit. A little bit of SANO doesn't hurt either. GO TWINS!

[James]

Jepsen is looking really good right now, and the fact that he'll be around next year is good news as well.  I wouldn't call the Twins a winner in this trade until we see how good Hu and Tapia end up playing for the Rays.  

 

So far though, I'm really liking the trade. 

[Twinfan & Dad]

My point is without Jepsen we would be out of the Wildcard Race by now with the average at best bullpen we have other than May and a healthy sometimes Perkins to close out games. Whatever Hu and Tapia do for Tampa in the future has no bearing on this year and Jepsen's contribution is keeping us in the race this year.

[drjim]

It was always a fair trade, and Jepsen has probably exceeded most expectations (though statistically he has generally pitched better in the second half). The issue always seemed that the trade analysis/outrage of the specific move got merged into the bigger frustration of it being the only move.

 

Might be amusing to read through that trade thread again.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Where would the Twins be without the 1 Trade TR made.

[dgwills]

I was actually pretty against this trade.  I thought the Twins were such a fringe contender that I didn't think it was worth getting rid of any prospects this year. Looks like I was wrong. Good move by Ryan and I'm glad he didn't make any others. While I'm admitting things I'll mention that I never thought Hicks would hit major league pitching either.......

[Badsmerf]

Bringing the solid hit "call me maybe" has stabilized the pen. Additionally, "I really really like you" has really been a surprising secret weapon. I like what Jepsen has brought to the table. I think we're just looking a tiny snapshot of things to come.

[sorney]

Without the trade, perhaps they are more aggressive in promoting AAA live arms and seeing how they fair?!?!?!  

[Brock Beauchamp]

I still believe Ryan overpaid a bit but I wasn't in full-blown outrage mode like so many of the users on this board. Jepsen was a pretty good reliever who, according to reports, hadn't been fully healthy for the first couple of months of the season.

 

Give up Hu and I'm all on board with the deal but I question the addition of Tapia.

[Mike Sixel]

I thought it was a meh trade, partly because I underestimated Jepsen, mostly because it was the only move made. It didn't look to me like a team going for the playoffs, but a team "building" for next year, and trying to make it look like they were going for the playoffs. So far, it has mostly been good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As a footnote, I would have been completely okay with paying that much for Jepsen (or another similar reliever) if Ryan pulled off that trade on July 1st, not 31st.

 

My problem was more that it was the only deadline move and it happened just before the deadline. The Twins needed bullpen help from day one.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It will be interesting to see what is done with the pen this offseason.  I really hope they add some quality arms to it.  The pen isn't hard to fix.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I still believe Ryan overpaid a bit but I wasn't in full-blown outrage mode like so many of the users on this board. Jepsen was a pretty good reliever who, according to reports, hadn't been fully healthy for the first couple of months of the season.

 

Give up Hu and I'm all on board with the deal but I question the addition of Tapia.

 

I think they gave up quite a bit, but at a position with a lot of prospects. And, I didn't know enough about Jepsen at the time. I was wrong. It was a good trade, especially because it wasn't just a 2-month rental. 

 

I like Hu as a mid-rotation guy, and I really was impressed by Tapia this spring. But you have to give up some (possible) future to get something for the present. 

[Monkeypaws]

Jepsen's ability to close has been the most pleasant surprise. 

 

I guess he had some saves with the Rays as well, but I thought he was mainly a set-up guy.

[mudcat14]

 

As a footnote, I would have been completely okay with paying that much for Jepsen (or another similar reliever) if Ryan pulled off that trade on July 1st, not 31st.

My problem was more that it was the only deadline move and it happened just before the deadline. The Twins needed bullpen help from day one.

 

We have no way of knowing of course, but in Ryan's defense it may have been the Rays that held up the deal.  The offer may have been on the table waiting for the Rays to bite.  They were deciding whether or not they were buyers or sellers at the time and may have been holding out to see if a better offer would come along.  If so, it is to Ryan's credit that he didn't up the ante to make it happen sooner.  Obviously it is yet to be seen whether or not we will regret giving up Hu & Tapia, but I think we can mostly agree that anything in excess of that would have been too much. 

[drjim]

If Hu sticks for a while as a #4 starter, which strikes me as the 75% outcome, it is a good get for the Rays but certainly not devastating for the Twins. Time value and all that.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Nothing against Jepsen, because he has been great.

 

My issues with the Jepsen Trade are the same now as they were then - it was a half measure that is working out very well.

 

I too would have liked the Twins to get Jepsen and another reliever. I too would have liked Jepsen or the second acquisition to have come around the All-Star Break instead of the deadline.

 

Having Jepsen around for a second year sounds great now, but some people (myself included) were saying that about Suzuki as well. I don't think he'll be bad next year, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's better now than he will be in 2016.

 

The last point I want to make is that May in the bullpen was like a trade as well - the Twins traded one of their best starters in the first half for a reliever. He just happened to be the same person. Personally, I would have liked to get two guys from outside the 25 man roster and left May in the rotation, but that's another thread.

 

Long story short, I'm very happy Jepsen is as good as advertised, but I feel the same way about the deadline now as I did then.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Could be that the Rays were not selling until the deadline. I do agree that 1 more reliever would have been nice. Unfortunately all of our in house minor league reliever options just haven't proven to be dependable. Meyer, Theilbar, Achter,Tonkin, and on and on.

[rghrbek]

It's been a good trade using hindsight.   At the time, I was not impressed, but not overly offended, as I thought the twins were done.   He did hit 98mph on a pitch last night.   Is that like the first time in 4 years for the twins?

[bird]

I always have problems with declarations that a trade is good or bad. But at the time I did think it was unlikely to be enough, soon enough, to earn us a wild card. Still do. 

[bird]

 

Without the trade, perhaps they are more aggressive in promoting AAA live arms and seeing how they fair?!?!?!  

 

 

This all sounds like a good idea. Until you start naming names. Pray tell, who are all these AAA live arms I'm hearing about?

[Dantes929]

 

Where would the Twins be without the 1 Trade TR made.

 

My point is without Jepsen we would be out of the Wildcard Race by now with the average at best bullpen we have other than May and a healthy sometimes Perkins to close out games. Whatever Hu and Tapia do for Tampa in the future has no bearing on this year and Jepsen's contribution is keeping us in the race this year.

That point has little foundation.    Some games someone else may have stepped up.  Some games someone else may have failed and we still win.   Maybe with the different group we lose a couple but win a couple others.   I love that he is dong well and appears to be a significant asset but I am skeptical that his absence would have put us out of the race.  You just never know.    It is a move that has worked out well so far and should be to Ryan's credit.

[nicksaviking]

I didn't like the trade because I didn't like Jepsen.  Declining velocity on a 31-year-old is not a good look.

 

It looks like since he came to Minnesota, he has dropped his 2-seamer and gone to his 4-seamer exclusively, meanwhile he's reduced the usage of his curveball and doubled the usage of his change-up.  Maybe Allen in short order refocused his repetoir?  Hope the results stick and the velocity doesn't drop much further.

[drjim]

 

I didn't like the trade because I didn't like Jepsen.  Declining velocity on a 31-year-old is not a good look.

 

It looks like since he came to Minnesota, he has dropped his 2-seamer and gone to his 4-seamer exclusively, meanwhile he's reduced the usage of his curveball and doubled the usage of his change-up.  Maybe Allen in short order refocused his repetoir?  Hope the results stick and the velocity doesn't drop much further.

 

Just need to squeeze one more year out of him.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Please tell the other CLOSER the Twins could use right now. Little foundation? 7 for 7 in save ops. And please don't say Fein.

[Twinfan & Dad]

That point has little foundation.    Some games someone else may have stepped up.  Some games someone else may have failed and we still win.   Maybe with the different group we lose a couple but win a couple others.   I love that he is dong well and appears to be a significant asset but I am skeptical that his absence would have put us out of the race.  You just never know.    It is a move that has worked out well so far and should be to Ryan's credit.

 

 

 

You are probably right. Anyone of our great bullpen could have gone 7 for 7 in save ops. WOW

[jokin]

 

I didn't like the trade because I didn't like Jepsen.  Declining velocity on a 31-year-old is not a good look.

 

It looks like since he came to Minnesota, he has dropped his 2-seamer and gone to his 4-seamer exclusively, meanwhile he's reduced the usage of his curveball and doubled the usage of his change-up.  Maybe Allen in short order refocused his repetoir?  Hope the results stick and the velocity doesn't drop much further.

 

Just need to squeeze one more year out of him.

 

Nailed it Nick on what Jepsen is throwing, a lot of credit has to go to Allen on the repertoire make-over. First strikes, Swinging strikes, contact rates are all improved versus Jepsen's time with the Rays. Line drive rate is down, pull rate is waaay down. 

But Drjim is on to something here, let's hold off there in over-praising this trade as some sort of panacea... there are some bubble stats that seem bound to pop-    ie, BABIP (.174), LOB (89%) and HR/FB (5.9%) are bound to normalize.  As we so vividly recall from his appearance on Wednesday night, Jepsen's Hard Hit rate with the Twins (34.1%) would rank 7th worst among all relievers over a full season.  (fun fact- Neal Cotts is worse, at 35.6% over the full season).

All that said, the guy has demonstrated that he has the right personality to step up to the closer/high leverage reins.  Perhaps he can act as an additional mentoring influence to May and some of the other hard-throwing up-and-comers- both for the remainder of this year and next-  but I hope Ryan doesn't start negotiations about a contract extension. 

 

Very likable personality both on-field and during the off-field interviews. Pulling for him- but not counting on him- to carry the pen without Perkins at 100%.

[Dantes929]

 

That point has little foundation.    Some games someone else may have stepped up.  Some games someone else may have failed and we still win.   Maybe with the different group we lose a couple but win a couple others.   I love that he is dong well and appears to be a significant asset but I am skeptical that his absence would have put us out of the race.  You just never know.    It is a move that has worked out well so far and should be to Ryan's credit.



You are probably right. Anyone of our great bullpen could have gone 7 for 7 in save ops. WOW

Not really what I said and in fact very much not what I said..    I like the move.   He has done great.    Maybe May would have been 7 for 7 in save opportunities and not blown the latest game and we actually are a game better.   That is very unlikely but do you think we would have blown all 7 of those games?   If we just blow 2 of those and there is no other impact that means Jepsen's very real WAR is 2 which statistically is an awful lot in 7 games.   That would now put us at 3 games out of the wild card race.     Is that out of reach?     Pretty sad if you think it is.    That was my only point.   Jepsen has been very good but statistically it is unlikely he has been worth 7 games just because he has 7 saves.      I never said anything to detract from his performance but to question the idea that we would be out of the race without him.     

[Twinfan & Dad]

The premise of the post was to give TR some credit for the 1 Trade he did make. We will have to disagree where we would be without Jepson closing games. Many teams end up trading top 10 prospects for short term rentals at the trade deadline and this year TR must not have seen any other trade options that he liked. Your post just has way too many what ifs for me. Do I think Jepson is the sole reason for keeping us in the race? NO. However when you start saying what if and the probability of this happening, I'm sorry but you lose credibility. Deal with the reality of the game situations and who actually is playing. No more what if's because none of us know.

[sane]

Without Jepsen:

1) May would now be the closer.(instead of Jepsen)

2) Fien would now pitch the 8th inning.(instead of May)

3) Duensing and/or Boyer would now pitch the 7th inning.(instead of Fien)

4) Some other dog is on the staff, who shouldn't be there.

Consider the Domino Effect when you decide how many games Jepsen was worth!