Remember when fans thought that giving up Gibson was too much for Tulov

[DaveW]

Those were the days

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Gibson will be fine.

 

Toronto is good but not this good. They've got to have some holes in their swings that the Twins aren't identifying. Maybe the data wasn't delivered to them. Maybe Suzuki is in a lazy pitch calling slump.

 

Also it would be nice to have a 98MPH guy who could just go in and throw heat instead of bringing in relievers with 92 MPH fastballs who fool no one.

[DaveW]

Gibson will be fine.

 

Toronto is good but not this good. They've got to have some holes in their swings that the Twins aren't identifying. Maybe the data wasn't delivered to them. Maybe Suzuki is in a lazy pitch calling slump.

 

Also it would be nice to have a 98MPH guy who could just go in and throw heat instead of bringing in relievers with 92 MPH fastballs who fool no one.

Speaking of data, maybe the data on Gibson is out on how he can't strike anyone out and has "meh" stuff.

 

Lat 4 starts: 3 terrible ones and one mediocre one. He has a future in the bigs, but he is looking more and more like a backend guy instead of a 2/3 guy.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

He is better as the game goes on and will get better with age as he learns the batters. His slider is already a good weapon.

[DaveW]

He is better as the game goes on and will get better with age as he learns the batters. His slider is already a good weapon.

we aren't talking about some 22 year old, he is almost 28. Relying on some sort of improvement as he ages can't be counted on.

[Joe A. Preusser]

 

we aren't talking about some 22 year old, he is almost 28. Relying on some sort of improvement as he ages can't be counted on.

 

It's not the age, it's the mileage.  And SSS.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

we aren't talking about some 22 year old, he is almost 28. Relying on some sort of improvement as he ages can't be counted on.

28 but fairly new to the league. I compare him somewhat to Buehrle actually. Buehrle is 36 and throws like 84 mph but knows what pitch to throw in all situations.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Speaking of data, maybe the data on Gibson is out on how he can't strike anyone out and has "meh" stuff.

Lat 4 starts: 3 terrible ones and one mediocre one. He has a future in the bigs, but he is looking more and more like a backend guy instead of a 2/3 guy.

 

He's been striking people out just fine for the last few months.

 

Chris Sale has had a tough 4 game stretch too, doesn't mean he's not an ace.  Gibson will be fine, tough stretches happen.

 

Get back to me when the stretch hits 8 to 10 starts.

[nicksaviking]

Gibson's a sinkerballer. That means he'll be fine for about four years if he's lucky then bust out like nearly every other sinkerballer in the last decade aside from Tim Hudson.

 

I vote trade him, but for someone young and controllable.

 

A sinkerball is such a poor career choice, it falls apart for you right about the time your rookie contract is up.

[Rosterman]

Gibson, at the tops, would become another Radke or Tapani, perhaps. But I would watch him closely. When he has another shining run of starts, I would consider dangling him as tradebait (mainly because we have three others locked into longterm contracts and he could prove more valuable to another team because of his contract control). He is a potential strong trading chip, along with Trevor Plouffe, that should be replacable.

[goulik]

We still struggle with the concept of sell high. When he was coming up, he was not predicted to be a front of the rotation guy so I don't know why TD followers suddenly thought/think he's a 2... Best I ever hoped for is a 3 and he still could/probably is that

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We still struggle with the concept of sell high.

The problem with the concept of "sell high" is not with the Twins front office, it's with message board posters' perceptions of the concept.

 

Look, it's this bloody simple:

 

If you think a player is a sell high candidate, so does every other GM in baseball.

 

No further explanation necessary.

 

Posters need to stop assuming they're so freakin' smart and opposing GMs are so freakin' dumb. Outside of the Colorado front office, I have little evidence that's actually the case.

[Thrylos]

Facts: 

Gibson first half FIP: 4.04

Gibson second half FIP: 4.46

Gibson first half BABIP: .271

Gibson second half BABIP: .384

 

He is not pitching that different, but has been unlucky.  Once the BABIP decline, his results will be closer to the first half.

ERA does not tell much of a story.

[Loosey]

Gibson has not been as good as he was during his stretch of great starts but I don't think he has been as bad as it appears.  In two of those bad starts he left with runners on base and two outs and I think the bullpen allowed every single one of those inherited runners to score.  Yes, those guys on base were on him, but you would expect at least a 50% strand rate.

[USAFChief]

The problem with the concept of "sell high" is not with the Twins front office, it's with message board posters' perceptions of the concept.

 

Look, it's this bloody simple:

 

If you think a player is a sell high candidate, so does every other GM in baseball.

 

No further explanation necessary.

 

Posters need to stop assuming they're so freakin' smart and opposing GMs are so freakin' dumb. Outside of the Colorado front office, I have little evidence that's actually the case.

I'm not sure that's always true. Perceptions vary. Otherwise, nobody would ever buy or sell a stock, right?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not sure that's always true. Perceptions vary. Otherwise, nobody would ever buy or sell a stock, right?

Oh, there's definitely wiggle room for interpretation but that's not the case with most posters' screams of "SELL HIGH!" Most of the time, it's "the guy had ten good starts, SELL HIM! HE'S VALUABLE!"

 

Or "DANNY SANTANA!"

 

It's one thing to say "2014 Oswaldo Arcia is a promising, though flawed, baseball player, I think the Twins should move him for different assets" versus "Kyle Gibson had four bad starts following ten good starts! We're doomed, the Twins should have sold him!"

 

One, teams rarely pivot in that fashion at the midseason mark. Two, few GMs are going to be terribly impressed by ten starts from Kyle Gibson. Sure, he has value but that value hasn't moved much from the beginning of April. GMs aren't so rash/stupid to radically revalue a player based on one-third of a season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Facts: 

Gibson first half FIP: 4.04

Gibson second half FIP: 4.46

Gibson first half BABIP: .271

Gibson second half BABIP: .384

 

He is not pitching that different, but has been unlucky.  Once the BABIP decline, his results will be closer to the first half.

ERA does not tell much of a story.

Yep, his peripherals are pretty much the same (at least they were from a glance). What's happening is that hitters are finding holes in the defense. That's the difference, really. Kyle is suffering from an unlucky stretch of baseball (as is the entire team when you get right down to it). That will pass in time and he'll go back to being a fringy #2 or a decent #3 depending on how you view his upside.

[nicksaviking]

 

The problem with the concept of "sell high" is not with the Twins front office, it's with message board posters' perceptions of the concept.

 

Look, it's this bloody simple:

 

If you think a player is a sell high candidate, so does every other GM in baseball.

 

No further explanation necessary.

 

Posters need to stop assuming they're so freakin' smart and opposing GMs are so freakin' dumb. Outside of the Colorado front office, I have little evidence that's actually the case.

 

Though teams do sell high on players, so it does happen and it would be nice if the Twins could do it more often.  They did it last decade, though often poorly.

 

I agree that it's silly to think that the numerous people who make up other front offices won't come up with the same ideas as the peanut gallery.

 

Perhaps front offices aren't prone to the raving lunacy that accounts for the deluded thoughts that run through the minds of us fans?  If so, perhaps that raving lunacy actually stumbles upon a justifiable proposition from time to time?  Or perhaps front office personell may be too deep into the forest to see the trees from time to time.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Oh, there's definitely wiggle room for interpretation but that's not the case with most posters' screams of "SELL HIGH!" Most of the time, it's "the guy had ten good starts, SELL HIM! HE'S VALUABLE!"

 

Or "DANNY SANTANA!"

 

 

While fanatasy baseball isn't the same as real baseball, they are both derived on percieved value and Danny Santana was one of the top ranked SS going into this year.  He probably shouldn't have been, but I think Santana probably had plenty of trade value coming into the season, after all, doesn't everyone who can even remotely play shortstop? 

 

I think fan expectations are high, but if the player is young and controlable, they're probably no higher than what the selling GM would probably ask for in the initial trade discussion.

[DaveW]

Yep, his peripherals are pretty much the same (at least they were from a glance). What's happening is that hitters are finding holes in the defense. That's the difference, really. Kyle is suffering from an unlucky stretch of baseball (as is the entire team when you get right down to it). That will pass in time and he'll go back to being a fringy #2 or a decent #3 depending on how you view his upside.

4.04-4.23 FIP is a #2 in your book? More like a 4/5 on a good team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

4.04-4.23 FIP is a #2 in your book? More like a 4/5 on a good team.

Eh, FIP is kinda crap for groundball pitchers, as it doesn't factor in type of contact at all.

 

Also, you need to stop putting words in mouth. I said "fringy #2, decent #3" and said nothing about where I placed Gibson on that scale.

[nicksaviking]

I don't think it much matters at this point if Gibson is a #2, #3 or #5.  The Twins painted themselves in the corner and regardless of rotation spot, Santana and Hughes are locked in.  Hopefully the team makes the right play and sticks Nolasco in the pen or DFA's him leaving Gibson, May, Berrios, Duffy, Milone and Mike Pelfrey on a new four year deal (I must assume) for the other three spots.    

 

If Ryan is going to clear out some depth (ha) and move someone, Gibson is the only one who has a tradable contract with enough MLB credibility to actually get you a return.

[Kwak]

He needs to pitch inside more often.  While Gibson won't be "an ace" (whatever?) he most definitely can be good.  Even stars get "lit-up".