Is it time to worry about Kyle Gibson?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Did I mention how much I hate that ****ing ballpark?

You must hate a lot of parks.  Denver, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Houston, and the White Sox all have ballparks with roughly equal or greater average seasonal home run park factors as the new Yankee Stadium since it opened in 2009, according to ESPN.  Philly and Toronto are also comparable in that measure since 2012 (when the most recent new MLB park opened).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

You must hate a lot of parks.  Denver, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Houston, and the White Sox all have ballparks with roughly equal or greater average seasonal home run park factors as the new Yankee Stadium since it opened in 2009, according to ESPN.  Philly and Toronto are also comparable in that measure since 2012 (when the most recent new MLB park opened).

Yes, I hate a lot of parks. I don't like parks that play small, though it can't really be avoided in Denver.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Boy, was Clayton Kershaw pitching like crap for a while in the first half. We should have offered a straight up trade, him for Arcia.

 

/snarktacularcagematchcomeseeitatthebuffalorama!

Not sure the intent of your snark, but...

 

Kershaw has allowed more than 3 ER in a game only 4 times all season.  Once was last week, the other 3 were indeed in April and May.  Through the third such game, May 21st, Kershaw was averaging 6.5 innings per start in 9 starts (8 times completing 6 full innings, never throwing fewer than five and two-thirds), with 11.26 K/9, 2.47 BB/9, 2.86 FIP, and 2.26 xFIP, to go along with his "crap" 4.32 ERA.

 

It's not really comparable to Gibson's current 6 start run of 5.5 innings per start (only twice completing 6 full), 7.36 K.9, 3.27 BB/9, 4.71 FIP, and 4.21 xFIP, to go along with his 7.91 ERA.  Give him back 3 runs to get to a league-average inherited runners scored rate and he drops down to a 7.09 ERA.

[DaveW]

 

Boy, was Clayton Kershaw pitching like crap for a while in the first half. We should have offered a straight up trade, him for Arcia.

 

/snarktacularcagematchcomeseeitatthebuffalorama!

Honest question. What is the point of this comment?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Honest question. What is the point of this comment?

[dxpavelka]

It might be if you are counting on him to be a 1st or 2nd starter.  If you're counting on him to be a 3rd or 4th or 5th starter he's about what you expect there.  Roughly around a .500 pitcher with a ERA hovering around 4.  Doesn't walk too many or strike out enough.  Please tell me we're not counting on him to be a 1st or 2nd starter.

[jimbo92107]

 

Honest question. What is the point of this comment?

Even great pitchers can have a bad stretch. Gibson is a very good pitcher, not a great one. Chill pills for everybody!

[Mike Frasier Law]

I think it's a combination of bad luck and imperfect performance. His peripherals the last 30 days show a mixed bag:

 

7.36 k/9 (above league average of 7.29 and something he can control)

3.27 bb/9 (above league average of 2.65 and something he can control)

.352 babib (above league average of .296 and his career average of .297; probably mostly luck that it's high)

53.1% left on base (well below league average of 72.4% and his career average of 68.8%; probably mostly luck that it's high)

14.7 hr/fb (above league average of 11.4% and his career average of 10.9%; probably flukey)

48.1% gb (above league average of 45.3% but below career average of 53.1%)

30% hard hit. (above league average of 29% and his career average of 27.4%)

 

In short, the vast majority of what he can control is still looking good, except for the walks. If he continues to strike out more than 7 k/9 with a gb% above 50%, he should be a top 50 pitcher. That's a #2 starter.

[Eris]

At least two people have commented on the McCann home run on the 0-2 count last night.  It seems that Twins give up a significant number of home runs on favorable pitching counts. (This is just my gut instinct here, it could be this opinion could also be due to remembering these instances more because of the negative emotion that giving up and 0-2 HR creates). Is this a parameter that one of the sabermetricians on this board could look at?  On an 0-2 count, McCann should have been wiping the dirt off his fanny after the pitch.  I just don't see that enough from the Twins pitchers.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

AL OPS with an 0-2 count: .420.

Twins pitchers against on 0-2 count: .511 (ranking 13th in the league, just ahead of Baltimore & Detroit)

Twins pitchers have allowed only 2 HR on 0-2 counts this season.

 

AL OPS *after* an 0-2 count: .468

Twins pitchers against *after* an 0-2 count: .552, lowest in the AL

Still only the same 2 HR.

 

Just eyeballing it, we have the worst opponents batting average on or after 0-2 counts, and the difference between us and the league is primarily extra singles allowed in those situations.

 

Of course, we also have the worst opponents batting average overall, and rank 12th in opponents OPS overall too...

[nicksaviking]

 

AL OPS with an 0-2 count: .420.

Twins pitchers against on 0-2 count: .511 (ranking 13th in the league, just ahead of Baltimore & Detroit)

Twins pitchers have allowed only 2 HR on 0-2 counts this season.

 

AL OPS *after* an 0-2 count: .468

Twins pitchers against *after* an 0-2 count: .552, lowest in the AL

Still only the same 2 HR.

 

Just eyeballing it, we have the worst opponents batting average on or after 0-2 counts, and the difference between us and the league is primarily extra singles allowed in those situations.

 

Of course, we also have the worst opponents batting average overall, and rank 12th in opponents OPS overall too...

 

I would think the poor results compared to other clubs is largely due to the fact that other clubs are often able to make the batter walk back to the dugout with his bat in his hand after an 0-2 count.  This team has to find a way to get outs without putting the ball into put into play.

 

Also looking at some random stats, it does look like there are quite a few other teams that see more Yankee batters per game than the Twins (39.25), however only Detroit is allowing more HR per contest to the Yankees (Twins HR/game 2.0).  However last year the Twins did only give up 4 HR in 7 games to these clowns.  I wouldn't have guessed that, though seems fair to assume A-Rod would have hit four more himself had he not been suspended.

[savvyspy]

Part of the issue with Gibson is the expectations by most Twins fans that he represents more than about a #3 or #4 starter on a playoff team. I would challenge anyone to find a team currently in the playoffs (if the season ended today) where if the Twins were playing them in game 1 or 2 of a series and we were throwing Gibson that the Twins would be the favorite.

 

Gibson is a solid starter but nothing more. His stuff isn't good enough to provide any upside versus what we get now. A few decent starts against lighter hitting teams and struggles against playoff caliber lineups.

 

He's in no danger of being sent down or cut or anything ridiculous but it is time for people to temper their expectations. He is what he is, a solid #3 starter on a non playoff team.

[Loosey]

I think the problem is for a while Gibson was the only pitching prospect in the Twins system.  Therefore his expectations were greatly elevated.  He was a 1st round pick with a lot of potential and instantly there was hope by some he would be that top of rotation guy.  But reality is he is probably solid #3.  Which is great when you think of it in terms of how many mid-late first round pitchers flame out and never sniff MLB success.  I think he is good enough to have stretches where he will pitch like a #1, but his stuff just isn't that of a #1 guy consistently.  

 

This is why I like Gibson.  Imagine having a true #1 Ace, say Berrios in a year or two, a legitimate #2 and Gibson as #3 going through a stretch where he is pitching like a borderline #1 or solid #2.  If the Twins could have that scenario and have it occur during the playoffs they would be a very difficult team to beat.  But to expect Gibson to be a "True Ace" is not going to happen.