Article: Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

[USAFChief]

 

they placed a very bad bet, given what we know about tall pitchers, imo. As I said at the time, the idea is good, but needs to be judged on how good Meyer turns out. Had I known the history of tall pitchers, I would have ripped it mercilessly at the time.

I don't think that's fair, Mike.

 

We don't "know" anything about tall pitchers.  The percentage of the population that has the ability to throw a baseball 95MPH or more is extremely small.

 

From that extremely small percentage, we're talking about the subset of people who are extremely tall.

 

There's simply too few examples to make any conclusions about extremely tall pitchers.

 

There's a theory out there (one I don't buy, but it's pretty widely held) that short RH pitchers are to be avoided because of the lack of "downward plane."  Well, it that's the case, the Twins should be looking to sign 6-9 guys every chance they get, rather than avoiding them.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

We'll just disagree. And I'm ok with that.

 

And no, your last paragraph does not logically follow from the theory.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

they placed a very bad bet, given what we know about tall pitchers, imo. As I said at the time, the idea is good, but needs to be judged on how good Meyer turns out. Had I known the history of tall pitchers, I would have ripped it mercilessly at the time.

 

I guess I have to disagree here.  I think there's some 20/20 hindsight that tends to ignore some things.  He was a top 100 prospect coming off of a very good year and rocketed up into the top 50 in most lists.  He has top of the rotation stuff to go with it in an org that was lacking in pitching prospects.  There's a saying among minor league prospectors that there's no such thing as a pitching prospect.  Acquiring a guy such as Meyer was desperately needed and guys like Meyer aren't typically for sale.  Lest we forget, Span had his share of question marks at that time too and didn't exactly get off to a great start in Washington.    Given the Twins situation, you do this trade every time. 

[USAFChief]

 

We'll just disagree. And I'm ok with that.

 

And no, your last paragraph does not logically follow from the theory.

How many 6-9 pitchers have there been?  One of them is in the hall of fame.

 

Again...if height has anything to do with it, we should be collecting them.

 

But it most likely doesn't have anything to do with anything.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think Meyer was (still is?) worth the gamble.  But it might be fair to say for a player like Span, they should have gotten another player maybe?

And that's a fair argument but let us not forget that Span had his own issues going into the deal.

 

He was a hitter who suffered a concussion and had played just 198 games the past two seasons. It worked out for the Nationals in the end but Denard was a somewhat risky player as well. He didn't play particularly well his first season in Washington, either.

 

And Meyer... Well, he's a weird case. It looked like he might be one of the few who beat the odds and became a dominant tall pitcher. Just 12 months ago, he was dominating AAA to the point we were screaming "WHY ISN'T HE HERE YET?"

 

And then he suddenly fell apart. At the same level he just dominated the previous season.

[Mike Sixel]

then why do we read all the time that it is hard for a tall pitcher to repeat his delivery, and it takes longer for them to develop? There is a difference.

[whydidnt]

I liked the Meyer-Span trade at the time, for all the reasons previously posted. However, with his recent failings, I really question the Twins ability to develop power pitchers. It seems almost every power type guy in the system either gets hurt or stalls and starts getting worse. Berrios is probably the exception. But, I think the Twins need to look at how they coach, promote, and develop pitchers. Too many power arms seem to regress every year. Why??

Edited July 31, 2015 by whydidnt

[jimmer]

 

And that's a fair argument but let us not forget that Span had his own issues going into the deal.

 

He was a hitter who suffered a concussion and had played just 198 games the past two seasons. It worked out for the Nationals in the end but Denard was a somewhat risky player as well. He didn't play particularly well his first season in Washington, either.

 

And Meyer... Well, he's a weird case. It looked like he might be one of the few who beat the odds and became a dominant tall pitcher. Just 12 months ago, he was dominating AAA to the point we were screaming "WHY ISN'T HE HERE YET?"

 

And then he suddenly fell apart. At the same level he just dominated the previous season.

Span was a 3.4 WAR with the Nats his first year.  

Edited July 31, 2015 by jimmer

[Brock Beauchamp]

Span was a 3.4 WAR with the Nats his first year.

Ah, I was going from memory. Thought it was more like 2.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ah, I was going from memory. Thought it was more like 2.

By B-Ref, Span had 2.3 WAR, but by Fangraphs he was 3.4.  (UZR thought he was great with the glove, and DRS merely average.)

[Mike Sixel]

Infinitely more than they have received from Meyer.......

[Otto von Ballpark]

Revisiting Tulo, is there any plan to do a "postmortem" on the Twins discussions with the Rockies?

 

It was encouraging to hear we talked with Colorado, although the report seemed to imply talks were quite basic and limited.  Did the Twins walk away, and why?  Was it primarily Gibson, Sano, or the cash?  Did we counteroffer?  Did it even get to the point of "offers" or was it shut down earlier than that?

 

I wasn't bothered by it fizzling out originally, because as Jeremy says, trades can take a while to develop, and I suspected the Rockies weren't actually that motivated to move him.  But it appears that wasn't the case.

 

TR strikes me as the kind of guy who will listen to (or make) an offer and give a quick, firm response (which might explain his relative lack of significant deals).  This situation might have called for more give-and-take; even if an agreement wasn't readily apparent, a strong signal of interest and regular contact might have produced something.

 

Here's a report of how it went down for Toronto:

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2015/07/28/timeline-of-how-troy-tulowitzki-ended-up-with-blue-jays.html

 

 

November, 2014: Rumours of Tulowitzki being on the block at the GM meetings in Phoenix when first-year Rockies GM Jeff Bridich said his “eyes and ears were open” to all possibilities.

Winter, 2014: Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos says the idea of a trade highlighted by Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes was first floated over the winter.

May, 2015: Jays talk with Rockies again about Tulowitzki.

July: Talks between Jays and Rockies quietly heat up again.

Just curious how it played out for the Twins.  Were the Twins just not interested at any reasonable price, or did we misread the Rockies, etc.?

Edited August 4, 2015 by spycake

[tobi0040]

 

Revisiting Tulo, is there any plan to do a "postmortem" on the Twins discussions with the Rockies?

 

It was encouraging to hear we talked with Colorado, although the report seemed to imply talks were quite basic and limited.  Did the Twins walk away, and why?  Was it primarily Gibson, Sano, or the cash?  Did we counteroffer?  Did it even get to the point of "offers" or was it shut down earlier than that?

 

I wasn't bothered by it fizzling out originally, because as Jeremy says, trades can take a while to develop, and I suspected the Rockies weren't actually that motivated to move him.  But it appears that wasn't the case.

 

TR strikes me as the kind of guy who will listen to (or make) an offer and give a quick, firm response (which might explain his relative lack of significant deals).  This situation might have called for more give-and-take; even if an agreement wasn't readily apparent, a strong signal of interest and regular contact might have produced something.

 

Here's a report of how it went down for Toronto:

http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2015/07/28/timeline-of-how-troy-tulowitzki-ended-up-with-blue-jays.html

Just curious how it played out for the Twins.  Were the Twins just not interested at any reasonable price, or did we misread the Rockies, etc.?

 

 

I think a combination of a lot of these things, as well as we were very hesitant to take on his contract.  Guessing as a matter of curiosity we talked Tulo, but were never serious.

[USAFChief]

I think it's pretty obvious the Twins just don't swim at that end of the pool.  

 

Acquiring a player of Tulowitski's stature, and paycheck, is not within the realm of what's considered possible, regardless if it's a good idea or not.

 

600 post thread, and fun to talk about, but my gut instinct is not one single post--including the original post--is from someone who considered this a realistic possibility.  

 

Because deep down, we all know the Twins don't consider it a realistic possibility.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, I know it wasn't realistic.  But that's what made Jeremy's report so surprising in the first place.  Just saying I'd be interested in a follow-up from him, especially if he could clarify some of his original questions and speculation:

 

 

 

I don’t know who made the first offer

Where do negotiations go from here?

Would the Twins have interest in acquiring other pieces from the Rockies?

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

If Reyes for Tulo has been bandied about for almost a year, doesn't that just reinforce the idea that Colorado had some misplaced infatuation with Reyes?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If Reyes for Tulo has been bandied about for almost a year, doesn't that just reinforce the idea that Colorado is incompetent?

Edited for clarity.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Reyes for Tulo has been bandied about for almost a year, doesn't that just reinforce the idea that Colorado had some misplaced infatuation with Reyes?

No, sorry that timeline was just a brief summary.  The context is that Toronto was trying to move Reyes the whole time, but Colorado (and other potential Toronto trade partners) were resisting.

 

Last week, Colorado relented, probably largely as an admission that they would have to eat some cash anyway.  (As Philly did in the Hamels deal too.)

Edited August 4, 2015 by spycake

[tobi0040]

You kind of wonder if a market niche exists where you can get quality players from rebuilding/poor teams on shorter deals.  If I was the GM and concerned "with years, not dollars", this would be an avenue to explore.

 

For example, Shields received 4/80 a few months ago.  He is still a pretty good player and it sounds like he would have been available with the Padres taking back salary.  Mark Buehrle is another example, one year into his contract with Miami.

 

If the Rockies ate 30% of Tulo's contract, 5/70 seems like a significant discount to what he would have received as a free agent.  It doesn't mean it is a good deal that does not have risk.  But in an world where Sandoval or Hanley Ramirez makes significantly more than that it would seem a decent place to look.  Now of course you give something up in the form of players or prospects, but the players that move tend to be of less quality than everyone thinks originally.

 

Frankly, I am surprised we have not done more of these deals. 

[TheLeviathan]

No, sorry that timeline was just a brief summary.  The context is that Toronto was trying to move Reyes the whole time, but Colorado (and other potential Toronto trade partners) were resisting.

 

Last week, Colorado relented, probably largely as an admission that they would have to eat some cash anyway.  (As Philly did in the Hamels deal too.)

Boy,you are just committed to the belief that theRockies didn't want Reyes. I think reality really disagrees with that. I have no good explanation (incompetence), but it looks pretty clear.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Boy,you are just committed to the belief that theRockies didn't want Reyes. I think reality really disagrees with that. I have no good explanation (incompetence), but it looks pretty clear.

It's not just my belief, it's been widely reported:

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/troy-tulowitzki-trade-toronto-blue-jays-colorado-rockies-ken-rosenthal-072815?vid=492340291747

 

 

 

Anthopoulos first asked the Rockies about Tulowitzki during the winter, but the Rockies would not take back shortstop Jose Reyes as part of the return.

So, Anthopoulos tried again in May. No change. Then again in July. Some movement. At the All-Star break, more movement.

And then, late Monday night, bingo.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

You kind of wonder if a market niche exists where you can get quality players from rebuilding/poor teams on shorter deals.  If I was the GM and concerned "with years, not dollars", this would be an avenue to explore.

 

For example, Shields received 4/80 a few months ago.  He is still a pretty good player and it sounds like he would have been available with the Padres taking back salary.  Mark Buehrle is another example, one year into his contract with Miami.

Yeah, these kind of contracts aren't really onerous.  (Although I don't think the Padres are really at giveaway stage with Shields yet, and his and Buerhle's contracts were backloaded.)  These are still good players and likely around market deals.

 

Shin Soo Choo, Robinson Cano, etc. -- THOSE are the onerous contracts.  Of course, those deals don't get moved at all.

[whydidnt]

 

It's not just my belief, it's been widely reported:

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/troy-tulowitzki-trade-toronto-blue-jays-colorado-rockies-ken-rosenthal-072815?vid=492340291747

This is why I think the Twins had a legit shot at Tulowitzki if they wanted it. If Reyes really was an anchor in the deal, what could we have gotten him for? Of course, we'll never know what conversations, if any, were really held. But it sure seems like he could have been had without mortgaging the future. 

 

Funny, to me it looks like the Jays gave up more for abut 10 David Price starts, and no way those are more valuable than Tulowitzki, are they?

[jimmer]

From today's chat with Dave Cameron:

 

Comment From David
What trade do you think was the biggest overpay or underpay?

Dave Cameron: Rob Kaminsky for Brandon Moss seemed like a high price for STL to pay for a platoon guy with a bad hip having a mediocre season. And the Tulo deal was probably the cheapest acquisition of a high-level player we’ve seen at the deadline in a while.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Bump

[laloesch]

 

Bump

 

Why bump this thread?

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

Why bump this thread?

 

The other Gibson/Rockies thread, there were people in that thread not believing that talks ever happened with the Rockies and Gibson.