Top 30 Twins Pitching Prospects

[Shane Wahl]

Reposting from my blog. No one reads the blogs anyway unless they magically become articles, so here goes. Hopefully the formatting carries over . . .

 

It is time to re-evaluate the top pitching prospects in the Twins system. Trevor May graduated, and the 2015 draft brought in three fresh pitchers to this list.

 

1. Jose Berrios (1): RHS, 5-27-94
2015 status: Strong improvement over 2014 AA numbers. Promoted to AAA. ETA: essentially MLB ready now.
 

2. Tyler Jay (NR): LHR, 4-19-94
2015 status: Sent to Fort Myers to the bullpen, likely for the remainder of 2015. Starting ability in question. ETA: 2017
 

3. Stephen Gonsalves (5): LHS, 7-8-94
2015 status: Totally dominated A ball, hitting a learning curve in A+ ball, but it should only be a matter of time. Perhaps A+/AA split in 2016. ETA: 2018
 

4. Alex Meyer (2): RHS, 1-3-90
2015 status: Struggled in AAA as a starter, converted to reliever temporarily, promoted to Twins as such, optioned back to AAA. Maybe he works on a few things and is back relieving for a playoff Twins team. Otherwise, they have to move him back to try starting one more time. ETA: should be back in 2015.
 

5. Taylor Rogers (9): LHS, 12-17-90
2015 status: Strong AAA time, replicating his AA numbers from 2014. I would like to see a playoff push involving Rogers as a lights out LOOGY. ETA: 2015 as a reliever, 2016 as a starter.
 

6. Chih-Wei Hu (15): RHS, 11-4-93
2015 status: Hu has finally given up some home runs, but that is about all that has changed from his excellent production in 2013 and 2014. He is an 8.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 kind of guy. It will be interesting to see how they manage his innings for the rest of the season, since I doubt that he is going to be top 110 innings or so and he is at 66.2 right now. ETA: 2017.
 

7. Kohl Stewart (3): RHS, 10-7-94
2015 status: A mediocre strikeout rate has actually fallen sharply in 2015. There is a lot of hand-waving about it as though it doesn't matter, but I think some caution is warranted here. Clearly, Stewart will be in Fort Myers again in 2016. ETA: 2018.
 

8. Tyler Duffey (10): RHS, 12-27-90
2015 status: Like Hu, Duffey is producing at his current level with very similar numbers as his overall minor league career numbers, and that is telling. He has been excellent this year, and I almost placed him ahead of Stewart. ETA: 2016.
 

9. Lewis Thorpe (7): LHS, 11-23-95
2015 status: The Twins and Thorpe decided to not have Tommy John surgery last September and this amounted to long delay of the inevitable,as Thorpe's April surgery will mean that he is out until at least mid-season 2016. He will only be about 20 and a half when he returns in 2016 (I would assume GCL/Fort Myers) so his status is still top-10 worthy. ETA: 2019 with level/year development.
 

10. Brandon Peterson (13): RHR, 9-23-91
2015 status: Peterson did not get the attention that Nick Burdi and Jake Reed did after last season. Then the Twins kept him down in Fort Myers for some inexplicable reason. Now, he is up in Chattanooga and he has not missed a beat at all. The 13 K/9 coupled with an acceptable 3.3 BB/9 makes him an elite reliever prospect. ETA: 2016.
 

11. Zach Jones (12): RHR, 12-4-90
2015 status: Jones was dominant until his last two appearances and is now on the DL. When he gets healthy, the Twins should consider promoting him to AAA. ETA: 2015 or 2016.
 

12. Nick Burdi (4): RHR, 1-19-93
2015 status: Things started poorly, got significantly better for a little bit, then went so poorly that the Twins actually just demoted Burdi back to Fort Myers, in a move that is rather perplexing, even with his bad performance. His mechanics have been altered significantly, and this might be the problem. ETA: 2017.
 

13. Jake Reed (8): RHR, 9-29-92
2015 status: Like Burdi, the stock is falling here for Jake Reed. He has struggled in AA and should remain there well into next season. ETA: 2016 only if all goes well.
 

14. Kyle Cody (NR): RHS, 8-9-95
2015 status: Still unsigned, for whatever reason. I am personally not very enthused with this draft pick. ETA: 2019

 

15. Felix Jorge (20): RHS, 1-2-94
2015 status: He's back and pitching very well. The strikeout rate has dropped, but so has the walk rate. He is also not giving up very many hits. I think he likely moves to A+ when the Twins move Hu to AA. ETA: 2018.
 

16. JT Chargois (HM): RHR, 12-3-90
2015 status: Chargois is back after not pitching in 2013 or 2014. He is doing very well, though his control is an issue. It was rather shocking how he dominated A+ ball though, and he is up to AA. ETA: 2016 if he remains healthy.
 

17. Alex Robinson (NR): LHR, 8-11-94
2015 status: After being drafted in the fifth round, he headed off to the Elizabethon bullpen. ETA: 2019.
 

18. Michael Cederoth (11): RHP, 11-25-92
2015 status: He has struggled a bit in A ball this year, walking a lot of guys as a starter. He moved to the bullpen and has been excellent. I imagine he stays there. ETA: 2018.
 

19. Mat Batts (HM): LHS, 7-6-91
2015 status: After a very strong start to the 2015 season in Cedar Rapids, Batts was promoted to Fort Myers where he continues to be fantastic. ETA: 2018.
 

20. Cameron Booser (24): LHR, 5-4-92
2015 status: Strong for Cedar Rapids, but he is walking an awful lot of guys. He strikes out a ton too, though. ETA: 2018.
 

21. Trevor Hildenberger (NR): RHR, 12-15-90
2015 status: Hildenberger has been out of control dominant for Cedar Rapids. It isn't clear why he is not in Fort Myers by now. ETA: 2017, if the Twins are at all serious about him.
 

22. Aaron Slegers (HM): RHS, 9-4-92
2015 status: Slegers is a solid starting pitching prospect who might continue to climb the prospect rankings, but shouldn't fall far. Very good K/BB rate. ETA: 2018.
 

23. John Curtiss (14): RHS, 4-5-93
2015 status: I was too high on Curtiss going into the season. He has been hit pretty hard in A ball this year. The strikeouts are still there, but it is going to be a slow ascent in the system. ETA: 2019.
 

24. Alexis Tapia (NR): RHS, 8-10-95
2015 status: Very young, but with good strikeout and walk numbers. Could climb fast. ETA 2019.
 

25. Alex Wimmers (NR): RHS, 11-1-88
2015 status: It is fantastic that Wimmers has gotten back into the swing of things. That he is starting again and striking people out is a testament to his perseverance. ETA: 2016 if the Twins are aggressive.
 

26. Randy Rosario (22): LHS, 5-18-94
2015 status: Hopefully, a healthy Rosario can get on track and return to showing the promise of his pre-2014 career. ETA: 2019.
 

27. Todd Van Steensel (HM): RHR, 1-14-91
2015 status: Van Steensel is a strikeout machine for Fort Myers. Undoubtedly, he will finish the year in AA if some of the pitchers in AA and AAA get promotions. ETA: 2016.
 

28. Ryan O'Rourke (25): LHR, 4-30-88
2015 status: O'Rourke has just been promoted to the Twins. He has been hit hard by right-handed hitters this year again, but the strikeout numbers against lefties are astounding. He could make it as a dominant LOOGY. A Twins playoff bullpen with Rogers and O'Rourke would negate left-handed hitters in the late innings. ETA: right now.
 

29. Luke Bard (NR): RHR, 11-13-90
2015 status: Bard is back healthy and looks to get his career on track. I am placing him above some honorable mentions here because he was the 42nd pick in the 2012 draft. ETA: 2017 if he stays healthy and the Twins are aggressive with him in 2016.
 

30. DJ Baxendale (NR), RHS, 12-8-90
2015 status: Shows what I know. I thought Baxendale was a slightly better version of BJ Hermsen after his bad 2014 in AA. He returned there and has been solid. He just needs to stay healthy and fine-tune things and he could be another starting option in 2016. ETA: 2016.
 

Honorable Mentions: Yorman Landa, Ryan Eades, Kuo-Hua Lo, Mason Melotakis, Corey Williams, Alex Muren, Fernando Romero, Jason Wheeler, Brett Lee, Adrian Salcedo, Tim Shibuya, Matt Summers
 

This is an extensive list, ending with a lot of "C" prospects who could still develop and move up this list. I tend to value progress up into the higher levels of the minors a bit more than ceiling, until high-ceiling pitchers actually get to A+ ball and succeed.
 

Breaking this down by ETA:

2015: 1. Berrios. 4. Meyer. 5. Rogers. 11. Jones. 28. O'Rourke. (3 SP, 2 RP)
2016: 8. Duffey. 10. Peterson. 13. Reed. 16. Chargois. 25. Wimmers. 27. Van Steensel. 30. Baxendale. (3 SP, 4 RP)
2017: 2. Jay. 6. Hu. 12. Burdi. 21. Hildenberger. 29. Bard. (2 SP, 3 RP)
2018: 3. Gonsalves. 7. Stewart. 15. Jorge. 18. Cederoth. 19. Batts. 20. Booser. 22. Slegers. (5 SP, 2 RP)
2019: 9. Thorpe. 14. Cody. 17. Robinson. 23. Curtiss. 24. Tapia. 26. Rosario. (4 SP, 2 RP)

 

Not all thirty (42) are going to actually arrive in the show, but each one of these guys could realize his potential and get there someday, with some team. There is also adequate depth, clearly, to trade from as the Twins become serious contenders in 2016 and beyond.

[Rosterman]

17 starters and 13 relievers. If half the starters start or stay relievers, that's astill a lot of pitching coming up, considering the contracts of Hughes/Santana/Nolasco and the continued control of of Gibson and May, just for starters.

 

And that's not counting any also-rans who could still be in the mix next year (Pryor, Oliveros, Darnell, Achter, Tonkin, Pat Dean?,. Truly makes you wonder WHY they signed Scott Atchison.

[Badsmerf]

Hu and Meyer top high. If put thorpe ahead of them both. Meyer is dropping like a rock in my mind. I wasn't impressed in the futures game last year and continue to be underwhelmed.

 

I'd also put Stewart behind Jay. Gonsalves and Rogers have had nice seasons, but Stewart still has the pedigree. While the strike outs haven't been there he is still getting weak contact and most likely refining his approach. I'm a believer in him still.... For now at least.

[goulik]

Not getting too deep in Nit Picky, O'Rourke already with the Twins might suggest he is a little low on your rankings

[Shane Wahl]

 

Hu and Meyer top high. If put thorpe ahead of them both. Meyer is dropping like a rock in my mind. I wasn't impressed in the futures game last year and continue to be underwhelmed.

I'd also put Stewart behind Jay. Gonsalves and Rogers have had nice seasons, but Stewart still has the pedigree. While the strike outs haven't been there he is still getting weak contact and most likely refining his approach. I'm a believer in him still.... For now at least.

 

I am willing to give Meyer 2016 to still be a great prospect (not elite anymore).

 

Stewart is fine, but the lack of strikeouts points to an actual problem.

[Shane Wahl]

 

 

Not getting too deep in Nit Picky, O'Rourke already with the Twins might suggest he is a little low on your rankings

 

Well he is a bit old. And LOOGY's are never really going to be high on such lists, even though they can be effective on MLB rosters.

[Badsmerf]

Well done on the article Shane.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

Y no Ynoa?  (see what I did there?)

[Clyde123]

Might be a little low for JT Chargois.  Guy has a really high ceiling.  Triple digit heat with, what was called during instructs, two other plus pitches.  Outpitching Burdi, Reed, and Jones at AA (small sample).

[Shane Wahl]

 

Y no Ynoa?  (see what I did there?)

 

Have to see a full season or close to that. I don't know if he is even going to be sent to Florida this year at all.

[Thrylos]

Good stuff    Hard to make those lists.   I seriously cannot see how Wimmers could be ranked higher than Baxendale at this point, since he is 2 years older, playing in the same team and Baxendale betters him all the way.   

 

If you go potential, Meyer, Burdi, and Reed are all way low.  Rogers is way too high. Sorry   He ceiling is Duensing or Milone.   Cody should not even make the list.   He is not even in the organization.   Stewart and Thorpe are big question marks.  Stewart's K% even when healthy is very worrisome for a guy who has been touted that high.  

 

The big elephant in the room is that Deron Johnson does not know how to draft pitchers.  Other than Gibson (who is a solid mid-rotation guy) and maybe Berrios (who seems to be) here are Johnson's first round (and supplemental) pitcher draftees: Gutierrez, Hunt, Bashore, Wimmers, Boyd, Bard, Stewart (Jay is too early to call.)   Here are his second rounders: Bullock, Boer, Chargois (too early to tell), Melotakis, Eades, Burdi (too early to tell).  

 

This has to be the worst group of 1st and 2nd round pitchers since 2007 in any team.  Not that he is doing any better with position players, btw, but that's another story. 

[Shane Wahl]

 

Good stuff    Hard to make those lists.   I seriously cannot see how Wimmers could be ranked higher than Baxendale at this point, since he is 2 years older, playing in the same team and Baxendale betters him all the way.   

 

If you go potential, Meyer, Burdi, and Reed are all way low.  Rogers is way too high. Sorry   He ceiling is Duensing or Milone.   Cody should not even make the list.   He is not even in the organization.   Stewart and Thorpe are big question marks.  Stewart's K% even when healthy is very worrisome for a guy who has been touted that high.  

 

The big elephant in the room is that Deron Johnson does not know how to draft pitchers.  Other than Gibson (who is a solid mid-rotation guy) and maybe Berrios (who seems to be) here are Johnson's first round (and supplemental) pitcher draftees: Gutierrez, Hunt, Bashore, Wimmers, Boyd, Bard, Stewart (Jay is too early to call.)   Here are his second rounders: Bullock, Boer, Chargois (too early to tell), Melotakis, Eades, Burdi (too early to tell).  

 

This has to be the worst group of 1st and 2nd round pitchers since 2007 in any team.  Not that he is doing any better with position players, btw, but that's another story. 

 

Rogers and Milone don't belong in the same sentence when it comes to actual stuff though.

Wimmers has a higher ceiling still than Baxendale. I don't care about Wimmers' age as much here. Maybe I am just a bit too low on Baxendale.

 

I have to assume that they will get Cody signed, right? Or else that is even freaking worse for Deron Johnson. I think you are right about his ineptness.

[Jarends703]

How does Derron Johnson compare to similarly positioned executives in other organizations? What kind of a track record do those others have? How does injury play into your evaluation of Johnson (I think half the pitchers listed from his drafts have had Tommy John surgery). I'm not sticking up for the guy but more so interested in the draft success of the Twins compared to other organizations.

[howieramone2]

How does Derron Johnson compare to similarly positioned executives in other organizations? What kind of a track record do those others have? How does injury play into your evaluation of Johnson (I think half the pitchers listed from his drafts have had Tommy John surgery). I'm not sticking up for the guy but more so interested in the draft success of the Twins compared to other organizations.

That's an argument they know they can't win. Several teams draft better, several draft worse. The majority are right in the middle with our favorite team over time.

[Badsmerf]

As far as pitchers have gone he can't be very high on the list. I think he's done ok with position players though, for the most part.

[Thrylos]

 

As far as pitchers have gone he can't be very high on the list. I think he's done ok with position players though, for the most part.

 

Depends on how Buxton will turn out.  Here are his 1st and second round position players:

 

1st Round: Revere, Hicks, Harrison, Michael, Buxton, Gordon
2nd Round: Rams, Ladendorf, Goodrum

 

Not. That. Elite.   

 

Here is who he passed on his first 3 drafts:

 

Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson, Jordan Zimmermann, Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman, Brett Lawrie, Jason Kipnis, Nolan Arenado, Mike Trout, etc.

 

If the Twins did not do so well with Latin American prospects in the Bill Smith era, things would have been really bad...

 

 

[drjim]

Depends on how Buxton will turn out. Here are his 1st and second round position players:

 

1st Round: Revere, Hicks, Harrison, Michael, Buxton, Gordon

2nd Round: Rams, Ladendorf, Goodrum

 

Not. That. Elite.

 

Here is who he passed on his first 3 drafts:

 

Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson, Jordan Zimmermann, Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman, Brett Lawrie, Jason Kipnis, Nolan Arenado, Mike Trout, etc.

 

If the Twins did not do so well with Latin American prospects in the Bill Smith era, things would have been really bad...

You can quote hits and misses from all organizations, still doesn't answer the questions.

 

I would say clearly not the best but also cleaely not the worst, probably in the middle.

 

I remember a looking back a couple years ago and their first rounders morw often than not outperformed their pick number by WAR ranking. Tells me they probably are better than average.

[drjim]

By the way, though I may quibble on some rankings, great writeup overall.

[bird]

 

Depends on how Buxton will turn out.  Here are his 1st and second round position players:

 

1st Round: Revere, Hicks, Harrison, Michael, Buxton, Gordon
2nd Round: Rams, Ladendorf, Goodrum

 

Not. That. Elite.   

 

Here is who he passed on his first 3 drafts:

 

Todd Frazier, Josh Donaldson, Jordan Zimmermann, Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman, Brett Lawrie, Jason Kipnis, Nolan Arenado, Mike Trout, etc.

 

If the Twins did not do so well with Latin American prospects in the Bill Smith era, things would have been really bad...

 

 

This argument is flawed in so many ways. I'll point out just three. First, every expert will tell you that the odds of producing a superstar out of the draft are highly dependent on early first-round picks, top ten in particular, which give you over twice the chance to score an All-Star type than a bottom 20-30 pick. The readily-available historical statistics bear this out with unadulterated clarity. Unlike your adulterated assessment regarding  the Twin's grade being "dependent on Buxton".

 

Second, pointing out who got "missed" is about as empty of an argument one could possibly make regarding such an assessment. Even so, I'd put money on the table that when, in five years, you put Revere, Harrison, Hicks, Michael, Buxton, and Gordon up against the teams who drafted three players before or after the Twins in those drafts, the experts would conclude that the Twin's draft was actually

 

That. Elite.

 

Thirdly, Billy Smith never met an international prospect before he was signed. Never saw video, never scouted them, never built a relationship with an agent, never had an opinion about them. He had ZERO to do with it, other than to be one of the execs who convinced Old Carl to increase the budget and then to put ink on a contract or two that was vetted by the scouts and approved by his superiors. There is not a single international player signed while Billy Smith held the GM position for which Smith deserves more than a sliver of partial credit, and that includes Sano. So, can we please dispense from this tired and false attempt to produce a myth about the Smith Era? It never existed.

[drjim]

I think it is more accurate to say that Smith didn't spend big money on international signings until Target Field was on the horizon. And funny, the budget for international signings has stayed high since.

 

Those that criticize Ryan for his spending (on international and other sources) during his first tenure always, always forget that somewhat critical factor.

[TheLeviathan]

I think it is more accurate to say that Smith didn't spend big money on international signings until Target Field was on the horizon. And funny, the budget for international signings has stayed high since.

 

Those that criticize Ryan for his spending (on international and other sources) during his first tenure always, always forget that somewhat critical factor.

I agree that Ryan worked under leaner years, but It's also fair to say that under Smith our spending was pushed higher on all fronts. It's a bit naive to think that wasn't purposeful.

 

I also question this persistent need to defend a bad record on pitchers under Johnson. It could be largely bad luck or whatever, but it's pretty bleak during a time we were drafting highly. It just is and the constant "yeah buts!" really come off desperate.

 

It doesn't mean we should contract the Twins, it's just been a disappointment. (I think that reality is why Ryan has opened up the FA checkbook for starters too.).

[drjim]

 

I agree that Ryan worked under leaner years, but It's also fair to say that under Smith our spending was pushed higher on all fronts. It's a bit naive to think that wasn't purposeful.

I also question this persistent need to defend a bad record on pitchers under Johnson. It could be largely bad luck or whatever, but it's pretty bleak during a time we were drafting highly. It just is and the constant "yeah buts!" really come off desperate.

It doesn't mean we should contract the Twins, it's just been a disappointment. (I think that reality is why Ryan has opened up the FA checkbook for starters too.).

 

It's naive to think that when revenues started to get higher that the team might budget more for international signings?

 

And I'm not especially sure what budget levels has to do with Johnson.

[TheLeviathan]

It's naive to think that when revenues started to get higher that the team might budget more for international signings?

 

And I'm not especially sure what budget levels has to do with Johnson.

Nothing, they are two separate thoughts. Smith began increasing spending before Target Field revenues were even in play. He had a more aggressive spending approach in general.

 

And none of that says Ryan or Johnson or the Twins are The Awful. Just acknowledging reality.

[twinsfanstreif]

is it me or do we have trouble developing pitching prospects? it seems like most of our top talented guys are struggling and really Berrios is the only one flourishing. Isn't that on the FO and the coaching staff?

[Tibs]

Thanks for the list. I'm a little higher on Eades but this is really his first successful season. It's interesting to see how many pitchers the Twins have that could pitch in the majors. There is a lack of top end talent that we have been over before.

[ashbury]

Thanks for the list. I'm a little higher on Eades but this is really his first successful season.

Fangraphs has his fine ERA at a more pedestrian FIP of 3.40, so it depends on how you define successful as to whether to call it merely acceptable or promising or whatever. He's doing it at a higher level than last year, so certainly he's earning his way this year. But he's not particularly young for his league, and his SO/9 rate is not high, so the margin for error to keep his career going isn't huge. Hoping for the best.

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins have a really bad organizational track record when it comes to developing pitching. It has occurred over too long a period of time for bad luck to be a convincing argument. And the success stories often have come from outside the organization, before developing further (e.g., Santana, Liriano, Nathan, May, etc.). So I'm not sure what to make of that, other than maybe the Twins have more trouble evaluating amateurs than actually coaching guys up.

[bird]

 

I think it is more accurate to say that Smith didn't spend big money on international signings until Target Field was on the horizon. And funny, the budget for international signings has stayed high since.

 

Those that criticize Ryan for his spending (on international and other sources) during his first tenure always, always forget that somewhat critical factor.

 

 

Another critical missing fact is that Carl Pohlad resisted repeated requests to increase the budget for building their international infrastructure, which was to include building an academy, hiring dozens of scouts, etc. . Andy MacPhail, Jim Pohlad, and Bill Smith were all involved in making this plea, and they were fairly accurate in saying it would take roughly a decade to reach a point where they had a formidable presence and elite capabilities, especially in the DR. 

[bird]

 

Nothing, they are two separate thoughts. Smith began increasing spending before Target Field revenues were even in play. He had a more aggressive spending approach in general.

And none of that says Ryan or Johnson or the Twins are The Awful. Just acknowledging reality.

 

 

I think it's fair to say that Bill Smith has a spending bias that Ryan doesn't naturally possess. I mean, who doesn't?  But it's not really accurate to depict Smith as a guy who independently decided to increase spending. There was a budget. He deserves credit for being among those who pushed hard to get it, and for his sizable role in building the academy, etc.

 

As for putting a grade on the results of their pitching draftees, it's so easy to come to some clear-cut conclusion, and I find it just as specious to say there's a competence problem causing the results to be what they've been than to totally dismiss the results as being a product of poor luck.

[bird]

 

The Twins have a really bad organizational track record when it comes to developing pitching. 

 

I'll agree with this after someone shows me an objective comparative analysis. If we go back 10 years, examine the number of choices the Twins have had as top 60 selections perhaps. Then compare those to perhaps the 3 pitchers selected ahead of and behind those picks, and let's get a better sense for how competent the competition looks in comparison. As a second piece of this, I'd want to compare the list of pitchers currently on MLB rosters who were originally drafted by each team from, say, 2006-2010. Did the Twins produce a smaller number of MLB pitchers than most other teams?