Where do Jay and Cody fit in team rankings?

[gunnarthor]

I figure Jay is probably 6th, behind Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Meyer and Gordon but ahead of Stewart.

 

Cody probably falls in the 12-15ish range behind Burdi, Gonsalves, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco (in some order).

[nytwinsfan]

I'd probably go:

 

(1) Buxton

(2) Sano

(3) Berrios

(4) Polanco

(5) Jay

(6) Meyer

(7) Gordon

(8) Kepler

(9) Stewart

(10) Gonsalves

(11) Walker

(12) Hu

(13) Harrison

(14) Turner

(15) Burdi

(16) Cody

 

Probably missing someone(s), but oh well. Rosario no longer a prospect in my book.

[Seth Stohs]

I was just thinking that... I think my updated would be:

 

Buxton

Sano

Berrios

 

Jay

 

Polanco

Gordon

 

Gonsalves 

Hu

[Steven Buhr]

I'm one who typically gives new 1st rounders more "juice" in my rankings than others do, immediately putting them in to the top 5-6 in the organization.

 

I'm not sure I would, in this case, however.

 

I get that Jay probably has a far better shot at becoming an effective MLB starting pitcher than most, if not all, of the "conversion projects" the Twins have drafted and attempted in recent years. There certainly seems to be broader support in the scouting community for his conversion being successful.

 

It's still not a sure thing.

 

Combine that with two other mitigating factors: (1) the relative "weak" nature of this year's draft crop, according to almost every expert we've heard from, and (2) the relative "strong" nature of the Twins' current list of top 10ish prospects.

 

Putting all of that together, I am not convinced Jay should yet be considered a top 10 prospect in the Twins organization.

 

I took in to account that a few players who WERE Top 10 guys have not performed like it this year. In addition, if you consider May, Rosario, Vargas, et al, "graduated," maybe Jay gets a higher ranking by default, but I don't think I'm ready to go there, yet.

 

Just off the top of my head, based on this year's (and prior years') performances, I'm thinking:

 

1 Buxton

2 Sano

3 Berrios

4 Polanco

5 Kepler

6 Gonsalves

7 Hu

8 Rogers

9 Walker

10 Harrison

 

You could certainly make a case for Meyer, Gordon, Burdi, Thorpe, Reed, Stuart, and probably others, but all 10 of the listed players have proven themselves with multiple successful professional seasons and show few signs to indicate they won't become successful MLBers. Some more successful than others, no doubt.

 

Jay has proven only that he can be a VERY good college closer. We think that he can be successfully converted to a starter, but there is no assurance of that.

 

By the end of this summer, we'll at least know what kind of professional relief pitcher he can be and maybe that will be enough to pop him in to my top 10. I just can't put him up there right now, when so many others have done more to prove their worth.

 

 

 

[Shane Wahl]

It isn't clear that I am putting Jay in the top 10 here. That isn't a slight, necessarily to him or the drafting of him. We will say Jay at 11 and Cody at 20. The system is still loaded, you know.

[drivlikejehu]

Jay is definitely ahead of Meyer, whose stock has plummeted. Only trails Buxton, Sano, and Berrios for sure... probably Polanco as well, maybe depending on whether you think he can play SS.

 

Cody is probably closer to the 20 range.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll probably have him in the bottom half of the top 10.  Cody probably in the 20s somewhere.  That isn't a slight on them  I might add.  Deep system. 

[Shane Wahl]

I would just recommend that we see Jay start in the minors before ever simply putting him in the top 6-10 in this system.

[dxpavelka]

Not going to lose any sleep over whether or not Jay can convert to being a starter.  If not, his background says late inning guy and in today's game that's pretty much as important as starter.

[Steven Buhr]

 

I would just recommend that we see Jay start in the minors before ever simply putting him in the top 6-10 in this system.

Ideally, yes. In fact, selfishly, I'd like to see them throw him in to Cedar Rapids' rotation and see how he does. I also understand that's not likely to happen in 2015.

 

Given that his ceiling is so dependent on becoming a starter, then, I would at the very least want to see him dominate out of the pen in multi-inning appearances. If he can do that this summer,  I could justify to myself considering him for a lower half of the top 10 in the offseason. Even that would, as I pointed out above, depend on how some of the other, established, prospects finish out their seasons.

[Dman]

With prospects it is all about projection and Jay grades out very high there so I would have to say he needs to start in the top 5.  All the guessing about starting or not doesn't really matter when you rank prospects because lot's of them never live up to there projections.  I don't think we have many or maybe any pitching prospects with potential for four plus pitches. The scouts see something special in Jay.  Time will tell but I think he needs to be top 5.

 

PRESENT FUTURE
Fastball 65 65
Command 55 65
Control 55 65
Curveball 60 65
Changeup 45 50
 

[drjim]

 

I'm one who typically gives new 1st rounders more "juice" in my rankings than others do, immediately putting them in to the top 5-6 in the organization.

 

I'm not sure I would, in this case, however.

 

I get that Jay probably has a far better shot at becoming an effective MLB starting pitcher than most, if not all, of the "conversion projects" the Twins have drafted and attempted in recent years. There certainly seems to be broader support in the scouting community for his conversion being successful.

 

It's still not a sure thing.

 

Combine that with two other mitigating factors: (1) the relative "weak" nature of this year's draft crop, according to almost every expert we've heard from, and (2) the relative "strong" nature of the Twins' current list of top 10ish prospects.

 

Putting all of that together, I am not convinced Jay should yet be considered a top 10 prospect in the Twins organization.

 

I took in to account that a few players who WERE Top 10 guys have not performed like it this year. In addition, if you consider May, Rosario, Vargas, et al, "graduated," maybe Jay gets a higher ranking by default, but I don't think I'm ready to go there, yet.

 

Just off the top of my head, based on this year's (and prior years') performances, I'm thinking:

 

1 Buxton

2 Sano

3 Berrios

4 Polanco

5 Kepler

6 Gonsalves

7 Hu

8 Rogers

9 Walker

10 Harrison

 

You could certainly make a case for Meyer, Gordon, Burdi, Thorpe, Reed, Stuart, and probably others, but all 10 of the listed players have proven themselves with multiple successful professional seasons and show few signs to indicate they won't become successful MLBers. Some more successful than others, no doubt.

 

Jay has proven only that he can be a VERY good college closer. We think that he can be successfully converted to a starter, but there is no assurance of that.

 

By the end of this summer, we'll at least know what kind of professional relief pitcher he can be and maybe that will be enough to pop him in to my top 10. I just can't put him up there right now, when so many others have done more to prove their worth.

 

Kepler and Polanco strike me as personal preference, but I think you are way too high on Hu and Gonsalves, way too low on Gordon and Stewart.

[Steven Buhr]

 

Kepler and Polanco strike me as personal preference, but I think you are way too high on Hu and Gonsalves, way too low on Gordon and Stewart.

They are all "personal preference."

 

Hu and Gonsalves are both in their second season of very good performance. We'll see over the next year how they progress at higher levels, but there's nothing from what I've seen of them to indicate they are going to hit a wall of some kind.

 

Stewart has had issues staying healthy and, whether due to that or something else we're not aware of, has not had a particularly productive season against the same level of hitters that Hu has near-dominated.

 

Gordon has impressed me this season defensively, but his hit skill has been a little disappointing (which I think even he would admit). He's had a good road trip to the Eastern Division the past week, so maybe he's turning it around at the plate. If he does, I'd agree he would be a top 10 guy. But this is an "at this moment" ranking and right at this moment, he has not shown the potential a 1st round guy should have.

 

Gordon and Stewart were first round draft picks for a reason. They have a ton of potential. But right at this moment, they have not demonstrated on the field that they are superior prospects to the guys I listed in my top 10. Doesn't mean they won't and either (or both) could have very good second halves. If they do, they'd easily warrant being in an offseason top 10.

[Mike Sixel]

Jay ahead of Stewart for me right now. And it bums me out to type that.

 

Tall pitchers make me nervous. I have no idea what to rank Cody

[Boone]

I have a hard time putting Cody over Rogers and Duffey.  Yes, he probably has more upside.  But their track record in AA (and to a lesser extent, AAA) puts them above Cody, in my mind.  At least for now.

[Sweetwater]

Gonsalves deserves to be a lot higher than most have him right now. I'd put him top 5. Jay right behind. Then Hu.

[dxpavelka]

 

I would just recommend that we see Jay start in the minors before ever simply putting him in the top 6-10 in this system.

 

Gonsalves deserves to be a lot higher than most have him right now. I'd put him top 5. Jay right behind. Then Hu.

I'm more concerned about how he performs over the next 6-10 years than I am about whether we rank him in our top 6-10.

[blairpaul715]

Well, when i rank, i go by performance and what is believed to be their upside, not saying some wont become more or less than what is projected, but the projections are done my professionals or people who do projections for a living if professionals is  not the correct word , not us peons LOL........So with that i would put put Jay at 4, as someone else said, it is all personal preference based on how you rank them, by performance, projection or some combination of both.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Kepler and Polanco strike me as personal preference, but I think you are way too high on Hu and Gonsalves, way too low on Gordon and Stewart.

 

Stewart has had 2 years to make the same kind of impression against the same batters as Gonsalves and Hu. He hasn't and should be ranked below those two.

 

Gonsalves has to be top-5 right now.

 

Gordon has a ton of upside, but he is really young and has yet to flash a top-5 tool besides defense. Even the top-5 pick status should not get him above #7 or #8 on the list.

 

Kepler, Walker, Harrison, and D. Hicks deserve consideration. Trey Vavra and Felix Jorge also have been overlooked.

[nytwinsfan]

Sorry, but no way is Gonsalves top 5. Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Jay, and Polanco are all unquestionably ahead of him. I could maybe see an argument for 6, but boy even that is a stretch for me. He has exceeded all expectations, but he throws in the very low 90s, and has dominated low A ball. Does he have potential upside, definitely, and I'm excited, but top 5 just makes no sense.

[jimbo92107]

Seems like a silly question, where to put them on the prospect chart. A couple pundits said the Twins could toss Jay in the bullpen in September, then put him in A or AA next season to develop as a starter. Those pronouncements were pure TV baloney. Jay may wind up being a good pitcher, but you don't throw a kid who's been facing the equivalent of low-A competition up against vastly better hitters and expect him to succeed, not unless he's got something really unusual in his arsenal. Does Jay throw 100mph? Does he have a knuckler? A screwball? Any particular pitch that nobody can hit?

 

No, he doesn't, and neither does Cody. That means they both go to A ball and work their way up, like every other good college pitcher. In fact, the whole prospect ranking chart seems kind of silly in light of all the stuff that goes right or wrong in a player's minor league career. Does Meyer still belong in the top ten? What about Lewis Thorpe, who just had TJ?

 

Maybe the problem is the chart's format - a simple hollywood squares grid. A false sense of order. Maybe it would be better to show a bunch of balloons of different sizes and altitudes, pumped up or drained daily by each player's latest stats. Meyer's balloon would be near the bottom right now, while Wu's balloon would be up near the top... Oh, for better graphics.

[nicksaviking]

 No, he doesn't, and neither does Cody. That means they both go to A ball and work their way up, like every other good college pitcher.

The Twins send just about every college pitcher to the Rookie Leagues even if it is lesser completion than the big time college conferences. Maybe Jay gets an exception simply because they'll still use him as a reliever this year. I'd be surprised if Cody does.

[h2oface]

Cody was horrible and lost velocity this season, and demoted. I really don't understand why he was picked second and could not rate him in the top 30.  Jay..... 12.

[gunnarthor]

 

Cody was horrible and lost velocity this season, and demoted. I really don't understand why he was picked second and could not rate him in the top 30.  Jay..... 12.

You are way too harsh.  Coming into the season, Cody was seen as someone with first round talent and a guy who could push himself high up the draft boards.  He hit 98 in a start.  The demotion thing is overstated. He made 12 starts and came out of the pen in two games.  

 

His stuff is great. He's  very similar to Meyer actually.  Great fastball and slider, control/mechanics has been a bit of an issue.  If he gets it together, he's a solid starter, perhaps more.  If he can't, then it looks like he can be a strong bullpen arm.

 

mlb.com had him ranked #40 going into the draft, fangraphs had him 73, BA 76.  Certainly wasn't a reach by the Twins.  I was very excited about the pick.  He should only be a few spots behind Burdi on prospect lists at this time.

 

Jay at 12 makes even less sense but there are a lot of threads explaining that so we don't need to discuss it again.  

[drjim]

Keith Law slots Jay at #3.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4008

 

 

Lord Byron (Buxton) is reigning -- by which I mean he hit ninth in his major league debut -- in Minnesota, moving Miguel Sano up to the No. 1 spot in the system, with Jose Berrios at No. 2 and Jay slotting in at 3.

 

[Steven Buhr]

Seems high to me, at this point, but I hope Law is right about Jay being that good.

[nicksaviking]

 

Seems high to me, at this point, but I hope Law is right about Jay being that good.

 

After Buxton, Sano and Berrios, things get a little dicey.  The system is still loaded with borderline top 100 prospects, but there doesn't seem to be any top 20 kind of guys.  The early results from the drafts and International signings since 2012 have not been as prosperous.

[Steven Buhr]

 

After Buxton, Sano and Berrios, things get a little dicey.  The system is still loaded with borderline top 100 prospects, but there doesn't seem to be any top 20 kind of guys.  The early results from the drafts and International signings since 2012 have not been as prosperous.

So you're saying maybe instead I should be expressing hope that Law is wrong about the guys he's got rated below Jay? That's probably a good point. I think you're right about the lack of top tier guys below the 3 you mentioned. Kepler may be making a move, but he's not going to get that high this year.