Cameron: this team isn’t actually all that good

[spinowner]

 

The 1987 Twins *were* pretty dismal.  85 wins, actually got outscored during the regular season (79-83 Pythag record).  Although I'll take that level of "dismal" team with those stars on offense and that great playoff 1-2 in the rotation over most of the other teams we've assembled in Twins history!

Today on the StarTrib website Howard Sinker posted his 1987 preview. He had them picked for 6th in the division.

[DaveTMpls]

 

That first week might have some effect on the BaseRun data... I'm not sure if it does or not. They had a run differential of -30, but since then it has swung hard the other direction. I have to believe that more games played will help make the numbers normalize.

 

The Twins may not have been playing well enough to justify the record they have now, but they did actually win those games, and that will keep them in the conversation much longer than anyone thought reasonable in March (or April)....

This is exactly where I'm at with statistical analysis of 2015 Twins season.  I know it's an objective approach, but if you do it that way, you can never explain how they got to first place in the A.L.  I would like the stat-heads to start digging in to the team's performance since May 1.

 

One observation I would make about the Twins decision-makers is a strong preference for two-way players. I think that has to be coming from Molitor. Rosario, not Arcia.  Plouffe, not Sano.  Mauer, not Vargas.  Hicks got sent down because he forgot how many outs there were (among other reasons).  IMO Santana is playing SS instead of Escobar because he has more range and a better arm.  Hicks and Rosario in the OF allows the Twins to shade Hicks towards Hunter.  My impression of the outfield defense is, Rosario-Hicks-Hunter has been pretty good defensively.  When the Twins play Escobar or Nunez in LF, not so good.

[Craig Arko]

Just so everyone is on a somewhat similar page; here's some basics about what BaseRuns is; how it's computed, and some strengths and weaknesses of the model.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_runs

[DaveW]

That's the beauty about sports, sometimes the "best team" won't win and sometimes the best team won't win a title, sometimes it just takes the right amount of luck, timely "clutchness" and you can win it all ala the 1987 Twins, last time I checked that world series title counts just as much as the 1927 Yankees where they dominated everyone.

 

Sometimes all you need to know is that the sausage tastes good and you don't need to concern yourself with how it's made, and right now the Twins sausage tastes good, the only sausage that could possibly top it would be some Mark DeRosa sausage as he could bring the whole thing together. I don't care at this point that their run score numbers and other sabre stuff isn't grade A quality, I am just enjoying the ride for now.

[drjim]

 

the only sausage that could possibly top it would be some Mark DeRosa sausage.

 

[JB_Iowa]

I read the article this morning when Nick tweeted a link.  It struck me as more positive than the previous fangraphs article so I felt like it was a step in the right direction.

 

And someone (either the article, a commenter or Nick) pointed out the Twins "Base Runs" went up fairly significantly in May -- not enough to take away the "luck" allegations but enough to temper them a bit.

 

And again, it doesn't matter what it says on paper.  It only matters what the scoreboard says at the end of each game.  And so far, I like what I'm seeing.

[gocgo]

Here's another article that I think is fair.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/58782/twins-exceptional-start-relies-on-exceptional-execution

 

I had no idea that the Twins had faced so many lefties and I would guess that Arcia is perceived as part of the answer to the righties.  Also, it is very fair to look at teams from last year with similar records and what happened to them...but I'm still gonna ride this wave as long as I can.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Hmm, seems to me that in order for the numbers to normalize, players who are currently under-performing would have to over-perform for a while. 

Could it be....?

[gocgo]

There are about 20 responses running thru my mind right now....19 of them can't be posted.

 

Sometimes all you need to know is that the sausage tastes good and you don't need to concern yourself with how it's made, and right now the Twins sausage tastes good, the only sausage that could possibly top it would be some Mark DeRosa sausage as he could bring the whole thing together. I don't care at this point that their run score numbers and other sabre stuff isn't grade A quality, I am just enjoying the ride for now.

 

[HitInAPinch]

 

 

 

 

I don't care at this point that their run score numbers and other sabre stuff isn't grade A quality, I am just enjoying the ride for now.

 

The more they move us away from "a kid's game", the worse it gets......

[Willihammer]

Here's another article that I think is fair.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/58782/twins-exceptional-start-relies-on-exceptional-execution

 

I had no idea that the Twins had faced so many lefties and I would guess that Arcia is perceived as part of the answer to the righties.  Also, it is very fair to look at teams from last year with similar records and what happened to them...but I'm still gonna ride this wave as long as I can.

That might explain part of the reason they've scored so many early-inning runs.

 

Will be fun to see how they fare against more RH starters. This month they start out R-L-R-R and then I think R-R-R against the Brewers.

[Willihammer]

As mentioned in other threads, equally as big a question as how long the Twins can continue to win by under performing statistically is how long can the Twins go under performing statistically to the degree they are?

The most encouraging part to me is the potential to make this team better exists in house, most obviously with Santana and Arcia, but fortunately they are not the only options and that's a good thing.

Agree. There are about a thousand ways this season can break. I don't yet know if this team is good bad or other but they are definitely interesting.

[Thegrin]

Games are played on the field by real people. Stats are collected by stat-heads that forget that cumulative stats do NOT equal real played games.  We can only watch and enjoy (or hate) each game as it is played and let the BaseRuns stats be collected.  At the end of the season we can debate their appropriateness for explaining the first 2 months of the season.  

[DaveW]

There are about 20 responses running thru my mind right now....19 of them can't be posted.

I'm guessing those 19 were negative and you didn't want to be associated with all of the negative posters around here?

 

It brings up a good point, the problem with sausages is that sometimes bad ingredients and process end up making some foul tasting links. For instance I am NOT a fan of the Stauffer Sausage in the least, I am not a fan of the Escobar LF/DH sausage, but the Escobar SS sausage is quite tolberable.

[gocgo]

 

I'm guessing those 19 were negative and you didn't want to be associated with all of the negative posters around here?

It brings up a good point, the problem with sausages is that sometimes bad ingredients and process end up making some foul tasting links. For instance I am NOT a fan of the Stauffer Sausage in the least, I am not a fan of the Escobar LF/DH sausage, but the Escobar SS sausage is quite tolberable.

Not negative.  Just unprintable.  I'm staying away from Stauffer's sausage, Esco's sausage, and every other Twin's sausage.  Enough said.

[Reider]

Do I really have to be the first one to come out and say that I believe in the Twins? Or that that this team is actually pretty good? I've never been a "homer" type of fan, i've always been a "tell it like it is" kind of person, so that's what I'm going to do. This team is actually pretty good.

 

Bringing in / (promoting) Paul Molitor, Torii Hunter, as well as the new coaches is making a difference. Our starting pitchers are pitching better than in the past and I believe Neil Allan has a lot to do with that (e.g. adding pitches). Glen Perkins is leading the league in saves. The team is playing with confidence and swagger. They are having fun and I think Torii Hunter has helped with that.

 

So what if this team doesn't have any big "stars?" This team has a lot of good players and they are playing as a team. That's why they've been winning baseball games.

 

Offensively, never mind this year, remember last year? They were the highest scoring team in August. They can score runs. Defensively, they look good right now. Dozier is absolutely fantastic at second base. Plouffe has improved so much, it's unbelievable. Santana might need to work on his mental game a bit, but he has a good tool set (good range, strong arm). And Mauer is Mauer. He's a big target at first base and not too shabby for the short amount of time he's been playing the position full time.

 

In the outfield we have Rosario, Hicks and Hunter. Together they cover a lot of ground, quickly.

 

Eventually people are going to have to realize that some of these Twins players are for real. Dozier is fantastic in the field and is dangerous with his bat. The same can be said about Plouffe, although he's not as flashy as Dozier with his glove. Hunter has been one of the most consistent / clutch players in the MLB over the last 15 years. Is anyone really surprised that he came through for the Twins last game with the game winning 2 run RBI double over the head of Chris Colabello? Is anyone really surprised that he has helped play a role in this team having fun and gelling?

 

I don't know what's going to happen in the future, but I know one thing is for sure, win or lose, this team is going to continue playing with a purpose. This is a good team that plays as a team. And a team that plays as a team is a dangerous team. As far as I am concerned the Twins have earned their current first place position.

 

 

 

 

 

[Platoon]

Ryan won't trade one of the Big Three, Sano, Buxton, or Berrios. But there could be the temptation to trade a Burdi, Kepler, Jones, Arcia, or Vargas level player in a futile attempt to each the playoffs. The article dealt quite a bit with probabilities. As should the Twins. This is a nice run. How long will it go? Then the probabilities set in. Fans should embrace FANtasy. The FO should embrace reality.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I think the Twins are going to employ an "if it ain't broke . . . " strategy of roster moves. I expect that if they keep underperforming but still are winning games, Santana will get to stay through his hitting slump. If they start to lose several games, I expect that Arcia will be up, and there may be a shake up at short stop.  

[Gene Larkin]

In 2014 the Royals had the highest differential in the league between actual runs and BaseRuns. Here's part of FanGraphs analysis:

 

"The Royals had an elite defense and bullpen, which probably explains the majority of the difference between the actual runs allowed and predicted runs allowed. Having an elite bullpen seems to confuse projections a bit."

 

In comparison, I would argue Perkins, as an elite closer, has been the key reason the Twins have outperformed their BaseRuns projection. (the insertion of Rosario and Hicks into the outfield has given the Twins a more Royals-like defense.) If Perkins and the setup men, especially Boyer, can continue to produce a shutdown bullpen the Twins have a chance to continue to defy the BaseRuns odds.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the Twins are going to employ an "if it ain't broke . . . " strategy of roster moves. I expect that if they keep underperforming but still are winning games, Santana will get to stay through his hitting slump. If they start to lose several games, I expect that Arcia will be up, and there may be a shake up at short stop.  

 

I agree, that is the approach I expect also.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In 2014 the Royals had the highest differential in the league between actual runs and BaseRuns. Here's part of FanGraphs analysis:

"The Royals had an elite defense and bullpen, which probably explains the majority of the difference between the actual runs allowed and predicted runs allowed. Having an elite bullpen seems to confuse projections a bit."

In comparison, I would argue Perkins, as an elite closer, has been the key reason the Twins have outperformed their BaseRuns projection. (the insertion of Rosario and Hicks into the outfield has given the Twins a more Royals-like defense.) If Perkins and the setup men, especially Boyer, can continue to produce a shutdown bullpen the Twins have a chance to continue to defy the BaseRuns odds.

But beating your BaseRuns record means (on the pitching/defense side) you are giving up base runners but not allowing them to score.

 

Not sure why that would apply to the 2014 Royals to any great degree -- their top relievers allowed very few base runners, although their relief staff overall was average in WHIP, and their relievers as a whole had the lowest number of inherited runners in the league (and allowed them to score at a league average rate).  And good defense should mean they allow fewer baserunners too, as well as stranding them.

 

Not sure it would be the dominant factor for Perkins and the Twins this year either.  Perk has been relatively stingy with base runners (1.083 WHIP), and only 5 inherited runners too.  The team has 3rd most inherited runners in the AL, but they are stranding them at about a league average rate, average WHIP, and the 5th worst bullpen ERA in the league.

 

I guess the Twins relievers (and starters too) have so few strikeouts, maybe that is a factor?  Obviously runners are more likely to advance/score on outs that aren't strikeouts.  Royals pitchers did not have huge strikeout totals last year either (although their bullpen was near the top, their starters were near the bottom).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the Twins are going to employ an "if it ain't broke . . . " strategy of roster moves. I expect that if they keep underperforming but still are winning games, Santana will get to stay through his hitting slump. If they start to lose several games, I expect that Arcia will be up, and there may be a shake up at short stop.  

That's what I expect too.  But on the other hand, they have already promoted Hicks and demoted Vargas as the team was doing well, although those moves were definitely easier decisions than most.  Danny Santana might be an easy decision pretty soon, and Arcia should be too once he gets back to normal.

[Linus]

I think the roster moves are going to be a bit controversial for a while because some will be made with the idea of winning now and some will be made because of player development.  As fans, we won't know the underlying premise of the decision and will likely end up with some head scratching.

 

I believe that the current DH situation is not about the Twins wanting to use Escobar / Nunez there as much as them wanting to do the right thing developmentally for Arcia and Vargas.

[drjim]

I would think the only moves in the next week to 10 days (barring injury) will involve a bullpen tweak or a DH bat. Probably will be the same move. Talks of altering the starting rotation or demoting Santana seem unlikely.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would think the only moves in the next week to 10 days (barring injury) will involve a bullpen tweak or a DH bat. Probably will be the same move. Talks of altering the starting rotation or demoting Santana seem unlikely.

That's my thinking as well. While I believe Santana should probably be demoted, I don't think it will happen until late June at the very earliest. The team is winning and he's getting experience while it happens.

 

I think the bullpen and DH situations will be shored up soon, though... At least I hope they will.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Hunter has been one of the most consistent / clutch players in the MLB over the last 15 years. Is anyone really surprised that he came through for the Twins last game with the game winning 2 run RBI double over the head of Chris Colabello?

I wasn't surprised by the result once I saw it was a deep fly lofted in the direction of Chris Colabello.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

I retract that last post somewhat. I looked over Santana's splits and... good god, they're horrible.

 

OPS:

7 days: .182

14 days: .269

28 days: .494

2015: .549

 

Ughhhhhhhh.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I believe that the current DH situation is not about the Twins wanting to use Escobar / Nunez there as much as them wanting to do the right thing developmentally for Arcia and Vargas.

Well, Arcia was hurt, and doesn't appear to be MLB ready yet, so I don't think it's a developmental question for him at this point.  (Could be soon, but I'd be rather surprised if they demoted him for anything more than essentially a short extension of his rehab.)

 

They are using Escobar in LF too so I think it's pretty obvious they are trying to get his bat in the lineup every day, and it's fair to debate the merits of that (especially as they continue with Santana at SS).

 

And given their history with DH's, I think it's also a possibility they are holding young potential DH's to a too-high standard, as compared to utility players (or theoretical utility players like Nunez).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I retract that last post somewhat. I looked over Santana's splits and... good god, they're horrible.

Yeah, he's been bad, which has made the Everyday Escobar LF/DH plan all the more strange.  Plus Polanco could soon fill the AAA SS spot...

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah, he's been bad, which has made the Everyday Escobar LF/DH plan all the more strange.  Plus Polanco could soon fill the AAA SS spot...

I've been on board with the Escobar move to short for a week or so, I just hadn't realized Santana was that bad in May.