Torii's Defensive Metrics

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Read today in the Pioneer Press that Hunter "has jumped to 11th in Defensive Runs Above Average out of 25 qualifying right fielders. He ranked dead last among all right fielders with at least 500 total innings in 2013-14 but says he is finally healthy after battling hip and shoulder issues last season."

 

Soooooo...is he still the worst defensive outfielder in baseball? What do other stats say? Is he a wretched contribution to our outfield defense? I know I read multiple times on this forum that he would be after he was signed.

[Hrbowski]

I've been trying to tell people that defensive stats go back and forth so much that they nearly come to the point of meaning nothing at times, and I also believe that DRS shouldn't be used to judge defense, because it is basically like the RBI, it is meant to measure clutch.

[DaveW]

SSS

 

Hunter has been solid with the bat no doubt, but the reality is he isn't an asset in the field any more. Getting old sucks.

[drivlikejehu]

Maybe I'm missing something, but don't his comments support the fact that his defense was, in fact, bad last year? And contradict Terry Ryan's claim that Torii was fine defensively in 2014? Even able to fill in at CF?

[bird]

 

Maybe I'm missing something, but don't his comments support the fact that his defense was, in fact, bad last year? And contradict Terry Ryan's claim that Torii was fine defensively in 2014? Even able to fill in at CF?

 

 

 

sigh

 

[twinsnorth49]

In other words, "take the fork out "?

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Is he bad this year or not? There's someone on this forum who can mine defensive stats from this year and break them down for us. This is a request for that.

[glunn]

Is he bad this year or not? There's someone on this forum who can mine defensive stats from this year and break them down for us. This is a request for that.

There is another thread (someone please link it) where there was a detailed discussion of the relevance and accuracy of defensive metrics in general. There is also some discussion of this relative to Torii in VodkaDave's "Stick a Fork in Hunter" thread.

 

Some TD members believe strongly in defensive metrics and some of them seem to believe that the eye test stinks.

 

Other TD members think that defensive metrics are irrelevant/unreliable and many of them see merit in the eye test..

 

The answer to your question will depend on the perspective of who answers it. My sense from the other threads is that the metrics proponents generally feel that Torii's defense is terrible, but there are some of them who dispute that based on theoretical discussions that are highly technical and esoteric. It is also my sense that the eye test proponents are split, but perhaps more than half of them feel that Torii has looked decent to slightly good in the field, at least better than Delmon Young or Oswaldo Arcia.

 

I am stating all of this so that it does not need to be replayed in this thread, or if it is replayed then posters should try to add new points and be more respectful of people who disagree.

 

Finally, as a fellow fan I will share my own answer. Based on the games that I have watched (eye test) Torii has made some nice plays on balls that did not seem routine. He does not look fast, but his routes seem good and his throws seem decent. Based on the metrics, Torii appears to be a liability in the field, but I suspect that if he were compared to other 39 year olds he would rank high. Most important to me, Torii seems focused and to be doing his best in all aspects of the game.

[howeda7]

The idea that he is the 'worst' was always ridiculous. On the Twins alone he is far superior to Arcia and Willingham last year. Clearly he's below average, but he still gets to 90% of the balls he should and appears to have learned his own limitations so as not to play singles into triples a la 2006 play-offs.

[jimmer]

 

Read today in the Pioneer Press that Hunter "has jumped to 11th in Defensive Runs Above Average out of 25 qualifying right fielders. He ranked dead last among all right fielders with at least 500 total innings in 2013-14 but says he is finally healthy after battling hip and shoulder issues last season."

Soooooo...is he still the worst defensive outfielder in baseball? What do other stats say? Is he a wretched contribution to our outfield defense? I know I read multiple times on this forum that he would be after he was signed.

To answer your request, Of the 24 qualifying RF there is still no RF with a worse DRS (defensive runs saved, which isn't anything like RBI) than Hunter.  He is tied with Cruz and Choo for the bottom spot.  

 

He's almost 40.  One would expect him to be not nearly as good defensively as he was when we first had him. One would expect a guy almost 40 to just not be that good out there anymore. This is not an uncommon occurence, And if one watches enough baseball games nowadays and sees what some of these players are doing defensively (as teams start to focus more on defense), there's a clear difference in what we see from Torii and what we see from Heyward, Stanton, Harper or Reddick.  

 

 

So IMO, yeah, he is still pretty bad out there.  That's what I've seen from him the last couple years and it's what I see this year. He doesn't pass the eye test once you really watch how well the RFs in baseball are playing nowadays.   But it also makes sense that when comparing an almost 40 year old to kids in their 20s and early 30s, he just isn't going to have the range.  And I imagine if he was just some other almost 40 year old former very good defensive player we picked up (as opposed to it being such a beloved former Twin), people would be going out and being so bothered by the idea that someone his age just really isn't at all good on defense anymore.

[jimmer]

 

I've been trying to tell people that defensive stats go back and forth so much that they nearly come to the point of meaning nothing at times, and I also believe that DRS shouldn't be used to judge defense, because it is basically like the RBI, it is meant to measure clutch.

RBI doesn't measure clutch nor does DRS.  Might be the only way they are alike.

[USAFChief]

Read today in the Pioneer Press that Hunter "has jumped to 11th in Defensive Runs Above Average out of 25 qualifying right fielders. He ranked dead last among all right fielders with at least 500 total innings in 2013-14 but says he is finally healthy after battling hip and shoulder issues last season."

Soooooo...is he still the worst defensive outfielder in baseball? What do other stats say? Is he a wretched contribution to our outfield defense? I know I read multiple times on this forum that he would be after he was signed.

It depends which metric you chose.

 

According to Fangraphs, 2015:

 

By DRS, tied for last among 24 RFers

 

By UZR, 10th of 24

 

By "DEF" (a rather undefined combination of factors), 10th of 24, right between Heyward and Harper.

[gunnarthor]

I think most of us thought last year would be an outlier and that he'd be better on the Twins for a few reasons - first, he missed time last year in the first half with lower body injuries.  We don't know how that affected his defense but we do know his offense picked up in the second half.  Secondly, the Twins have some success positioning players (Orlando Hudson) so I liked the idea of Molitor working with him more than Ausmus.  And Comerica might be the hardest RF to play in the AL.

 

In any event, it's always fun to look at the defensive stats.  According to fangraphs, Hunter has made the second most plays out of zone.  -shrug- 

 

So he's doing ok for a guy on a one year deal who isn't blocking anyone and was supposed to help the team's chemistry.  Good for him.

[jimmer]

Overall, he's been a plus player for us and that's a good thing.  

 

According to the metrics, he's tied for last in DRS, he's tied for 3rd in plays made outside of zone, and he's been middle of the road in range.  UZR is the worst tool to use this early in the season, so I won't use that.

 

I don't think 2014 was an outlier for him because 2013 was also bad for him defensively(though not AS bad as 2014) and one would expect the closer he gets to 40, his defense would trend down which is exactly what happened between 2013 and 2014.

 

In any event, the metrics will normalize and look closer to level when the season is over.  

 

He's a good or as bad as your opinion thinks he is on defense. But he's almost 40 and it shouldn't surprise anyone that some of us would see that he's just not good on defense anymore as we remember nor as good as a lot of the young studs out there are that we also see.

 

At this point, he's what Jeter was a good chunk of his career.  He makes the plays he gets to, he's sure handed, he's smart on defense and he makes an occasional good play (the last thing is something almost every player does).

[HitInAPinch]

"Lies, damn lies and then there's statistics" has always been my mantra.  That's always been my beef with Sabermetrics.  It seems to be going out of the way to prove a player actually has more worth than they actually are [ WAR is probably my biggest beef ] or worse than the actually are.  A metric for whatever suits your needs.  That being said......

 

Torii Hunter IS 40 years old.  He IS in his 19th season.  The fact that he can still play the field and carry an eyeball-estimate .280+ average over the past 5 years is pretty amazing stuff.  However....

 

He is 40 and the summer heat is coming upon us.  When pro athletes perform beyond their expected decline age, their skills, generally speaking, will suddenly stop.  My hope is the Twins REALLY have someone ready to take over RF when this happens.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

 

He is 40 and the summer heat is coming upon us.  When pro athletes perform beyond their expected decline age, their skills, generally speaking, will suddenly stop.  My hope is the Twins REALLY have someone ready to take over RF when this happens.

Yeah, at his age he could fossilize at any moment.  I think Molitor is doing a good job of resting him.  He's only started 35 of the first 40 games (a 140 game pace) and DH'ed him in 5 of those so he's been fairly rested in RF.  

 

Ideally, Hicks/Rosario/Arcia/Buxton start pushing him for playing time and with Vargas' struggles, he could DH even more once Arcia is back.  But right now Rosario and Buxton aren't ready.

[Mike Sixel]

will the WAR over this never end? Both eye test and statistics have value.

 

But, saying he gets to 90% of the balls he should? that's a very bad ratio.......very bad. So, if that's true, he's bad.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, at his age he could fossilize at any moment.  I think Molitor is doing a good job of resting him.  He's only started 35 of the first 40 games (a 140 game pace) and DH'ed him in 5 of those so he's been fairly rested in RF.  

 

Ideally, Hicks/Rosario/Arcia/Buxton start pushing him for playing time and with Vargas' struggles, he could DH even more once Arcia is back.  But right now Rosario and Buxton aren't ready.

 

I agree, I like that he's DHing more, and getting rest. Probably why Herrmann is playing more too, to help Suzuki be fresh.

[jimmer]

Mike, you have PM

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

At this point, he's what Jeter was a good chunk of his career.  He makes the plays he gets to, he's sure handed, he's smart on defense and he makes an occasional good play (the last thing is something almost every player does).

Fully agreed. He's a savvy vet who has made up for a lack of athleticism with defensive smarts.

 

Having watched Hunter and many other RFs this season, I think he's below average. He's not killing the team but he's not very good, either... Which is totally fine on a one-year deal as a stopgap player, particularly when you factor in his bat.

[dbminn]

The best way to minimize Hunter's limited range is to have athletes play the other two outfield positions (some combination of Rosario, Hicks and Robinson). If Rosario can show some progress hitting and the team keeps winning (two BIG IFs), I think you'll see Arcia and Hunter rotate through the outfield and DH, keeping two OF spots open for better defenders.

 

Of course, the more likely outcome is Rosario is sent down, Arcia takes over LF and Hunter's lack of range is exposed to the maximum extent. Maybe, after a couple of months of misery, Rosario will be back or Buxton will be ready. 

 

 

 

 

[drjim]

 

The best way to minimize Hunter's limited range is to have athletes play the other two outfield positions (some combination of Rosario, Hicks and Robinson). If Rosario can show some progress hitting and the team keeps winning (two BIG IFs), I think you'll see Arcia and Hunter rotate through the outfield and DH, keeping two OF spots open for better defenders.

 

Of course, the more likely outcome is Rosario is sent down, Arcia takes over LF and Hunter's lack of range is exposed to the maximum extent. Maybe, after a couple of months of misery, Rosario will be back or Buxton will be ready. 

 

Exactly. Two things defensive metrics miss out on in my opinion are quality of teammates. Better teammates allow players to shade more to out of zone areas and allow for less balls to be missed that should otherwise be caught (by said teammates).

 

The second is impact of shifts. They are working to capture this better, but shifts will allow more balls caught out of zone, improving rankings. Probably not a coincidence that Hunter has been trending up as he got better defensive players in the OF and that the Twins shift a decent amount (and effectively) under Molitor.

[Dave T]

 

The best way to minimize Hunter's limited range is to have athletes play the other two outfield positions (some combination of Rosario, Hicks and Robinson). If Rosario can show some progress hitting and the team keeps winning (two BIG IFs), I think you'll see Arcia and Hunter rotate through the outfield and DH, keeping two OF spots open for better defenders.

 

Of course, the more likely outcome is Rosario is sent down, Arcia takes over LF and Hunter's lack of range is exposed to the maximum extent. Maybe, after a couple of months of misery, Rosario will be back or Buxton will be ready. 

I think Vargas got sent down in order to open the DH spot for Arcia.  I'm not impressed with the LF options at this point.  Nunez is worse than Arcia in LF, if that's possible.  Escobar is a good infielder who is making lots of mistakes while learning a new position.  Rosario and Robinson are pretty good fielders, but below-average hitters.  WHenever Molitor plays a good fielder in left,  it allows Hicks to shade towards RF and hide Hunter's lack of range.  The Twins only need offensive production from two of their three OF's.

 

To make my point differently, I think Arcia will play LF about as often as Escobar does in his absence.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Vargas got sent down in order to open the DH spot for Arcia. I'm not impressed with the LF options at this point. Nunez is worse than Arcia in LF, if that's possible. Escobar is a good infielder who is making lots of mistakes while learning a new position. Rosario and Robinson are pretty good fielders, but below-average hitters. WHenever Molitor plays a good fielder in left, it allows Hicks to shade towards RF and hide Hunter's lack of range. The Twins only need offensive production from two of their three OF's.

 

To make my point differently, I think Arcia will play LF about as often as Escobar does in his absence.

That's a really good point, one I never considered. What if the Twins plan on running Rosario out into left every day? It's an interesting idea.

[USAFChief]

I don't think teams shade their CF much, if at all, based on who is playing either corner. They shade their CF based on who the hitter is, and who the pitcher is.

[Thrylos]

 

In other words, "take the fork out "?

 

Don't.  Please.  The helium will blow out and he will deflate...

[twinsnorth49]

Don't. Please. The helium will blow out and he will deflate...

Ah, too soon. That's what I figured.

[BoomBoom]

Can't we just enjoy the ride?  Would hate to take you guys to the amusement park.   What do your eyes tell you?  Do you have to be top 10 at everything or you suck?  Is it ok to be average at any part of your game as a player?

 

Hunter is doing a decent job out there.  Nothing special and nothing terrible.  He adds to our team as a COMPLETE PLAYER.   Enjoy the ride folks and stop looking for the negative.  Find something positive to talk about and actually enjoy talking about it.   

[Hrbowski]

 

It depends which metric you chose.

According to Fangraphs, 2015:

By DRS, tied for last among 24 RFers

By UZR, 10th of 24

By "DEF" (a rather undefined combination of factors), 10th of 24, right between Heyward and Harper.

Just continues to show that defensive stats are unreliable.

[jimmer]

 

Just continues to show that defensive stats are unreliable.

Really depends on whether or not the person knows how and when to apply them.  

 

For example, you say that the big differences in Hunter's rankings less than 2 months into this season shows how flawed the stats are. Yet the SAME stats last year had the following rankings for Hunter as follows: Last in DRS, Last in UZR, Last in Def.  

 

These are the same stats that you say are flawed, in part, because they show such a difference in rankings after not even two months but, after a full year in 2014, the rankings are matched exact.  It doesn't always end up that way, but most of the time very close, and the occasional outlier wouldn't make it invalid anyway.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

If you follow the link and look at those three stats (DRS, UZR and Def) for each RF, you'll see that players are very close in each ranking at all three stats.  Won't always be exact because they measure different things.