It is time for Aaron Hicks to return

[tobi0040]

 

This. If Hicks has actually revised his swing and is getting results from it, then it might be time to starting considering a call-up. I wouldn't do it yet but maybe in a couple of weeks if he keeps it up.

 

If he still has hitches in his swing against RHP, he has no business being in Minnesota yet. I don't care if his OPS in Rochester is 1.200.

 

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me six times...

 

Here are his splits so far:

 

RHP      56 AB   .286/.349./.464/.813

 

LHP     27 AB    .296/.424/.556/.980

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hicks-001aar&type=bgl&year=2015

[jokin]

 

Here are his splits so far:

 

RHP      56 AB   .286/.349./.464/.813

 

LHP     27 AB    .296/.424/.556/.980

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hicks-001aar&type=bgl&year=2015

 

Remember when HIcks was the #72 rated prospect.... good times....

[2wins87]

I definitely hope to see him up for a decent amount of time this year.  I'm not particulary high on his future after seeing his first two years, but he seems to be a guy that takes a while to adjust and we have seen guys like Plouffe and Dozier become valuable guys over the course of several year.  He's not going to be a star but he could be a valuable role player.  I believe he is in his last option year, so if he's going to become a useful major league player he'll need some experience this year, even if only to become a 4th outfielder at the major league level.

 

If Robinson were struggling and Shafer were hot it would be easier to hide Hick's weakness against righties (not that they should sit him all the time against righties, but he probably shouldn't face them all the time).  I think he will continue to improve slowly, and facing closer to an even number of lefties and righties would make his production a lot better overall.  And as others have said, he doesn't have a particularly high bar to surpass to be more valuable than the Twin's other centerfielders this year.

[Shane Wahl]

I wouldn't just give up on Arcia vs. lefties, either, but the manager is pretty clear about it if he willing to sit Arcia 90% of the time against lefties in favor of someone who can't hit anyone.

 

They key for me is that Hicks is slugging. He seems to be making some strong contact. That and fixing whatever the hell is wrong defensively with him are the two improvements that will make him worthy of sticking around.

 

As I have said elsewhere, Schafer isn't even stealing bases right now when he does manage to get on base. Thus, there is no value there. He is a decent to good defender in left, not in center. Robinson is the guy to keep around for defensive 4th OF purposes.

[laloesch]

Lets see how he does in AAA for a few more weeks.  Some guys are late bloomers and perhaps Aaron is one of those guys and has FINALLY started to turn the corner and make the necessary adjustments to hit right handed pitching.  

 

He's also beginning to feel the heat from Byron Buxton who is heating up in Chattanooga and is not far behind him.  If Aaron doesn't take a big step forward here this season he might be passed up by Rosario, Buxton and possibly Walker. 

[Willihammer]

Re: Arcia, he's actually been decent against LH starters (SSS warning). Its the LH relievers that he's been completely helpless against to this point. Maybe you let him start 100% of the time, slot him in front of a RH hitter, and PH/defensive sub for him later in games if the opponent brings in a lefty reliever. Of course it would help have a viable RH bat on the bench (cough Pinto cough).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Here are his splits so far:

 

RHP 56 AB .286/.349./.464/.813

 

LHP 27 AB .296/.424/.556/.980

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=hicks-001aar&type=bgl&year=2015

I know his splits are better but over 56 ABs, that doesn't necessarily mean the problem is fixed. It's encouraging but not incontrovertible evidence.

[tobi0040]

 

I know his splits are better but over 56 ABs, that doesn't necessarily mean the problem is fixed. It's encouraging but not incontrovertible evidence.

 

I get it.  But the flip side is by the time we have enough evidence, we may have Buxton, Arcia, and Hunter in the OF.   It seems like a recipe of giving up on another talented player too early, who could play well somewhere else.

 

I would bring him up. I am OK with giving up on Schafer or Robinson. 

[Willihammer]

Hicks just got his first HR against a RHP yesterday. If he had a .150/.225.450 line with 4 HRs against RHPs, for example, to me that would be more suggestive of a turnaround than his current line which could just be fluky BABIP.

[bulldozier14]

 

Hicks just got his first HR against a RHP yesterday. If he had a .150/.225.450 line with 4 HRs against RHPs, for example, to me that would be more suggestive of a turnaround than his current line which could just be fluky BABIP.

To opposite field, too...it was impressive. 

[COtwin]

 

Hicks just got his first HR against a RHP yesterday. If he had a .150/.225.450 line with 4 HRs against RHPs, for example, to me that would be more suggestive of a turnaround than his current line which could just be fluky BABIP.

 

That would put him on pace for like 25-30 homeruns from the left side.  Nobody is doing that from their weak side.  I get the flukyness of small samples, but what you suggest would be more fluky and way less sustainable.

 

 

Hicks is going to be an OBP guy, who hopefully is learning to drive the ball.  If his current stats are at all transferable, even 80%, than I would take that.

[Willihammer]

 

That would put him on pace for like 25-30 homeruns from the left side.  Nobody is doing that from their weak side.  I get the flukyness of small samples, but what you suggest would be more fluky and way less sustainable.

I wouldn't expect that pace to hold over a full season either. But over small samples I think you have to weight a true outcome like home runs more heavily than other hits. Its a lot easier to get lucky with singles and doubles after all. Especially when you're talking about a guy who has historically struggled against RHPs and nobody can offer a specific, non-statistical reason that he should be performing better against them.

[COtwin]

I see what you are saying and I can agree.  I wish I could see video of the last couple weeks worth of hits. Seems like he is putting the ball in play a lot vs striking out.  So I imagine is BABIP isn't too out of whack.  His GO/AO is much more slanted toward ground, 2.0 GA/AO.  I know what that means, but what does it "mean" ?

 

I saw his homerun.  I loved the stride, and the swing seemed pretty effortless.  No hesitation, met the ball out front.

[John Kelsey]

Sounds like Rosario might be getting the call over Hicks. That would be somewhat baffling, if true. 

[Craig Arko]

If you believe the rumors circulating at the moment, it sounds like we're going to get Eddie Rosario instead.

[Raven]

I think it's going to take Hicks much longer than a few weeks to climb his way out of the minors.  The Organization remembers how great he looked in spring training in 2013 and 2014 and then bombed.

This spring he failed to impress and the mental mistakes probably hurt his chances worse than anything. I don't think anyone wants to hang their hat on him this soon after his repeated flameouts of the past.

[Shane Wahl]

If the Rosario thing is true, then it must simply be that they are looking for a true 15 days only from whoever they call up right now. Hicks would be the real CF replacement when that time comes (well, that time should be right now, but whatever).

[COtwin]

I actually like this, if it is a temporary thing.  Hicks doesn't need jerked around right now.  Rosario is a good temp replacement, and we get to see what he can do in SSS.  Maybe Hicks sees that he still has work to do.  Actually as I write this, I am starting to hate the move.  Hicks should be coming for a temporary spot, as it will have lower pressure and the understanding is that he would be going back unless he lit it up.  But going back down wouldn't be a deflating failure.  I am so confused.  I should have my opinion privileges revoked.

[h2oface]

The Rosario over Hicks choice really surprises me. I am not looking forward to Rosario's OBP in the lineup right now. This seems personal to me. The people making choices must like Hicks at all anymore.

 

Replacing Schafer with Hicks immediately if not sooner would be a welcome move. Why stop now? It is May. Let's make some changes to this team that is currently tied with Baltimore and Tampa for the final Wild Card birth......... (I haven't been able to say that for a long time. Gotta get it in while I can.... this may be the only day of the season I can say that!)

[stringer bell]

Rosario promoted.  Hicks stays in Rochester.  The SSS numbers say this is wrong.  However, I do believe a lot more of what I've seen of Hicks as a major leaguer--weak contact from both sides.  Eddie gets a shot to see what he can do.  I wish him well.

 

I think that this event illustrates that in spite of what has been written at TD, Hicks has forfeited any inside track or favored status because of his experience in the majors.  If Hicks continues to hit, he can certainly open the door and get back to Minnesota. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If the Rosario thing is true, then it must simply be that they are looking for a true 15 days only from whoever they call up right now. Hicks would be the real CF replacement when that time comes (well, that time should be right now, but whatever).

This is my thinking as well. Let's not forget that the last time Hicks saw real success as a baseball player was in 2012. That's an eon ago.

 

Letting the guy settle into sustained success for awhile is pretty sound reasoning (provided that's what the Twins are thinking). He has been floundering for 2 1/2 years now... That's a reallllllly long time in prospect years. A month or more of killing it at Rochester could go a long way for the guy's confidence.

[jokin]

 

Sounds like Rosario might be getting the call over Hicks. That would be somewhat baffling, if true. 

 

Baffling?  How?

 

Hcks' physical and mental collapse over 2 seasons, especially last year, caused a radical re-thinking of expectations for Hicks in the TwinsFO.  Hicks is on super-secret double probation until they're pretty confident he's well past his issues.

[drivlikejehu]

What has Rosario done except fail at AA & AAA instead of the Majors?

[jokin]

 

What has Rosario done except fail at AA & AAA instead of the Majors?

 

2014 in AFL?  2013 in AA?

[Brock Beauchamp]

What has Rosario done except fail at AA & AAA instead of the Majors?

He has shown sustained success much more recently than Hicks has.

 

I just don't understand why people are trying to rush Hicks to MLB again. He has failed spectacularly to the point where he gave up switch-hitting for a few weeks. It's obvious that the game has gotten to this kid's head after 2+ years of repeated failure.

 

Give him some time to build confidence and get his head right. Yeah, it might cost the Twins a game or two now but I'll take that if it gives him even a small edge to become a regular MLB player down the road.

 

We should all applaud the Twins for playing the long game here instead of taking the easy road. They should have done this last year but that's water under the bridge at this point.

[drivlikejehu]

 

2014 in AFL?  2013 in AA?

 

He was average. And in 2014 in AA, and now 2015 in AAA, he has been far below average.

 

Last year, Hicks outperformed Rosario's translated AA line by a lot.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

If the Rosario thing is true, then it must simply be that they are looking for a true 15 days only from whoever they call up right now. Hicks would be the real CF replacement when that time comes (well, that time should be right now, but whatever).

 

This occurred to me as well; I hope that's the thinking, at least. Even beyond the "why jerk Hicks around" question, if they really expect it to be only 2 weeks, that seems a justifiable reason to choose a player just because they want to get him exposed to the majors.

If it's not that...then it's puzzling.

[Thegrin]

I hope Hicks is seeing a shrink. His problems are more about effort and attitude than his bat. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

2014 in AFL? 2013 in AA?

103 and 104 wRC+, according to Fangraphs. A hair above average.

[jokin]

 

103 and 104 wRC+, according to Fangraphs. A hair above average.

 

So that's what you would term "fail"?  Got it.

 

"Hair above average"  The New Fail...