Berardino: Twins close to extension with Dozier

[jimmer]

I think what is partially to blame for the wonky results is you are comparing all players in baseball to sample set that excludes any player under 28 or so (or almost all of them).   It is very rare that a player in his rookie deal, arbitration, or first team friendly deal sniffs $20M a year. 

 

That begs your point though, why pay him if you don't have to

Yeah, I'm not suggesting we pay him 120M over 6 years in an extension.  I'm saying if he's given a contract worth less than 9M a year over 6 years, that will be a good deal especially when you consider what he's been worth the last couple years and the fact that the last two years would be FA years.  

 

And prices aren't going DOWN they are going UP. Think in two years if he's still producing like he is he'll sign for less than 9M a year?

 

But we could just trade him now, hoping an unproven prospect can take his place and produce a 4-5 WAR right out the gate :-)

[TheLeviathan]

That's the weird thing tobi...the Twins appear to be ok with this type of extension but are loathe to sign extensions for soon-to-be FAs.

 

I'm not sure this is really changing an established pattern in any way, more of a continuation of a known one.

[Monkeypaws]

Seeing there is no salary cap in baseball, I'm not too worried about this. 

[jimmer]

Seeing there is no salary cap in baseball, I'm not too worried about this. 

especially when the guys we hope are going to be worth big money some day haven't even accumulated a year's service time in the majors, meaning they won't be worth big money (if even good enough) any time soon...past the time Mauer's money comes of the books :-)

 

I'd guess Dozier will get something like 6 years/in the 40-45 range.  

[big dog]

Looking at the forest through the trees, you have to wonder what the impact on guys like Sano, Buxton, and Meyer are when they see players get paid before they needed to be, versus going year to year.  

 

 

Yeah, if an employer actually pays people for performance rather than taking advantage of rules that emulate serfdom (though the serfs are really rich), it ought to have strong motivational effect on the younger serfs.  Much nicer tone than Beane's "play hard, get good, and I'll swap you" effect.

[halfchest]

I look back to where the Twins waited too long on guys like Hunter and Santana and ended up losing them.  Now obviously nothing is for sure but both of those guys would have been more likely to re-sign at a reasonable rate had the Twins gone after them when they were under team control for more years.

 

I also look at the Span contract and how that worked out and I'm all for the Twins exploring this now.  The only bad extension the Twins have done is probably Blackburn and that was still pretty low risk. 

 

This is obviously a bit higher risk but he's shown some consistent power and plus defense.  If he puts up another year like last year I see his price skyrocketing.  To me this is the perfect time to pursue an extension but really, no one can judge it until we get some numbers. 

[nicksaviking]

Oof, a six year extension is a long time.  It seems to me middle infielders decline a lot faster than corner posiiton players.  Not sure I want to pay a 33-year-old starting kind of money.  If the Twins buy additional years, I really hope they are vesting options based on health and plate appearances, with how the Twins prospect tree looks, and the volitile nature of middle infielders, it wouldn't take a whole lot for Dozier to become a platoon/bench player in a few years.

[Willihammer]

Here are some super 2 arb1 deals signed this winter. I know Dozier isn't Super 2 but he's close in service time (2.100).

 

 

http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/arbitration-submissions&link=true&widget=true&YEAR=2014&submission_serviceTimeGEQ=2&submission_serviceTimeLEQ=3

 

Dozier sits at 9.6 r-WAR through similar service times. Among these players, the highest contract is Josh Donaldson at $4.3m for 16.6 WAR. Drew Smyly got 2.65 for 8 career WAR. Dee Gordon got 2.5 for 1.7 career WAR (2.4 in 2014).

 

Assuming Dozier puts up another 3.5 WAR in 2015, here is how he would compare to the 2015 arb1 non-super2 Class.

 

http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/arbitration-submissions&link=true&widget=true&YEAR=2014&submission_serviceTimeGEQ=3&submission_serviceTimeLEQ=3.999

 

At the top end is Steve Cishek with $6.65m for 5.4 career WAR. Mike Minor got $5.6 for 3.8 career WAR.

 

Assume Dozier declined in 2016 to 2.5 WAR. His career total at that point would be 15.6.

 

http://transactions.mlbtraderumors.com/widget/arbitration-submissions&link=true&widget=true&YEAR=2014&submission_serviceTimeGEQ=4&submission_serviceTimeLEQ=4.999

 

2nd year arb guys got, at the high end, Greg Holland (8.25m, 9.6 WAR), Neil Walker at 8.0m for 15.0 WAR (that's a good comp).

 

3rd year arb guys

 

David Price, 19.75m for 23.2 WAR. Porcello, $12.5m for 10.6 WAR, etc.

 

I think we're looking about Arb1-2-3 commitments to Dozier at the high end of each year, due to the 9.6 WAR he's already accumulated.

 

So, factoring in a little inflation, something like 6.0, 8.5, 15.0 (29.5 total.)

[Shane Wahl]

Why not just wait one more year to do this?

[nicksaviking]

I look back to where the Twins waited too long on guys like Hunter and Santana and ended up losing them.  Now obviously nothing is for sure but both of those guys would have been more likely to re-sign at a reasonable rate had the Twins gone after them when they were under team control for more years.

 

I don't disagree, the Twins screwed the pooch on those two extensions.  But both were younger and better players at more premium positions.  They were also part of teams that were trying to maintain their current winning tradition.  A lot can change in six years. A few 2B from 2008 were still productive last year, but probably only Cano, Kinsler and Pedroia (depending on how much you like dirty uniforms) you'd still want to pay starter money today.

 

The 2008 2B WAR leader board:

 

Chase Utley

Dustin Pedroia

Ian Kinsler

Brian Roberts

Dan Uggla

Mark DeRosa

Mark Ellis

Brandon Phillips

Marco Scutaro

Placido Polanco

Akinori Iwamura

Kelly Johnson

Rickie Weeks

Jose Lopez

Freddy Sanchez

Felipe Lopez

Robinson Cano

 

I really like Dozier, but he doesn't seem elite like Utley, Kinsler, Pedroia, Cano and even Phillips did back in 2008.  He seems really solid with some great flashes, more like Scutaro, Ellis, Uggla, Weeks, Johnson and of course Mark DeRosa.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Dozier's last two years combined was worth 39M.  If the Twins can get him for 6 years at 52M, they should do it. He could very well exceed the value in his first 4 years.

That's using a free agent $/WAR calculation.  Dozier is not a free agent for four more seasons.

[jimmer]

That's using a free agent $/WAR calculation.  Dozier is not a free agent for four more seasons.

I understand that.  

 

Let me ask you this.   Let's say we pay him whatever he's getting this year. Then he hits arbitration the next couple years before we sign him to a three year contract extension before his last year before FA(assuming he accepts just three year extension at that point, which I doubt). If he performs as well as he did last year, or as well as 2013 (or somewhere in between), think that will end up costing us more or less than just giving him 6/52 now? Think the prices will stay the same waiting three years (while hoping he'' accept a 3 year extension at that point)?

 

Prices go nothing but up unless he just takes a dive, which I doubt.

[Willihammer]

Why not just wait one more year to do this?

Because if Dozier doesn't fall off a cliff in his age 28 season, then the Twins have to offer even more $$ to make a deal happen. It is almost besides the point by then, if its not already too late.

[markos]

I look back to where the Twins waited too long on guys like Hunter and Santana and ended up losing them.  Now obviously nothing is for sure but both of those guys would have been more likely to re-sign at a reasonable rate had the Twins gone after them when they were under team control for more years.

 

I also look at the Span contract and how that worked out and I'm all for the Twins exploring this now.  The only bad extension the Twins have done is probably Blackburn and that was still pretty low risk. 

 

Hunter and Santana both signed multi-year extensions with the Twins that bought out two free agent years. Maybe the Twins should have tried to extend them further, but at least with Santana that would have been a mistake. 

 

I would also argue that the Morneau extension was a mistake (in hindsight). If my math is correct, they had him under team control through 2010, and then had to spend $30MM for basically replacement-level production for 2011 and 2012. I don't know how much money they saved in arbitration costs, but I doubt it was more than $30MM.

 

This is the risk with extending Dozier now. He has 4 seasons where he could get injured or just become terrible, at which point the extra two years are worthless and expensive. And list of above-average 2B that are 32+ is fairly short - basically only 2 or 3 per season.

 

As others have said, final judgement will come down to the terms. But anything similar to the Kipnis or Carpenter contracts is too rich for my blood.

[jimmer]

 

 

This is the risk with extending Dozier now. He has 4 seasons where he could get injured or just become terrible, at which point the extra two years are worthless and expensive.

 

 

That's the risk for practically every player, isn't it?

[laloesch]

Why not just wait one more year to do this?

 

Agreed.  No need to do this just yet.

[Willihammer]

If Dozier goes to arbitration then he is already signed to something like a 3/30 year contract. The caveat being that if he is injured then the Twins can opt out. So, one question is, what value is that option to the team?

 

Another question is, how valuable are the rights to Dozier's 1st (perhaps 2nd) free agent years? All of that has to be priced in.

 

Since we're talking about Dozier's 28-30 seasons and he has no real injury history, I think the value of the former is low, maybe 25% or so.

 

How many FA years the Twins buy out and how much they pay for them is the much more interesting question IMO. It will shed some light on the Twins thinking about age related decline. I cannot believe that with Mauer's extension on the books that they're looking to buy out more than one.

[nicksaviking]

Hunter and Santana both signed multi-year extensions with the Twins that bought out two free agent years. Maybe the Twins should have tried to extend them further, but at least with Santana that would have been a mistake. 

 

 

A six year deal for Santana would have been perfect.  He was a 25-year-old Cy Young winning lefty, the best in the game.  If we're assuming all things remain equal as far as injuries go, he would have been healthy through the first five seasons and only gotten hurt with a month left in the final year of his contract. 

 

I agree with not siging Dozier to a six year deal though.  He's not on the same level or the same age as Santana, Hunter, Morneau or Mauer.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Jose Altuve signed an extension in July 2013 that pays him $10.5m for his arbitration years. 

Jedd Gyorko signed an extension in April 2014 that pays him $12m for his arbitration years.

Jason Kipnis signed an extension in April 2014 that pays him $19m for his arbitration years.

Kyle Seager signed an extension in December 2014 that pays him $22m for his arbitration years.

 

While I get that these aren't all apples-to-apples comparisons, it does illustrate the fact that players are only going to get more and more expensive. To make the dollars go as far as possible, you make the commitment early. In return for the risk (of injury or poor play), you get the chance to pay a guy far less than what he's worth - which would be perfect as it will be happening as Buxton and Sano are hitting arbitration. Cost-certainty, man, and cross your fingers.

[Danchat]

I would wait until after 2015 for this deal. Sign him up in winter 2015 or early 2016.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Dozier goes to arbitration then he is already signed to something like a 3/30 year contract.

Thanks for doing the math, that is a key component here.

 

Considering he's set to make basically the minimum this year absent a new deal, I guess the choices could be:

 

4 years, ~$30 mil, covering ages 28-31, with team opt-outs (or adjustments for health/performance) every year

 

6 years, $52 mil, covering ages 28-33, fully guaranteed

 

Sounds good, although Dozier is a bit of an odd duck -- I feel like given his age and complete performance history so far, his 2013-2014 might represent his peak.  And it's a lower peak (offensively) than Kipnis, much lower than Carpenter.  So locking him in at these rates doesn't give you a whole lot of room for excess value, which is a big part of these arb buyout contracts.

[markos]

That's the risk for practically every player, isn't it?

Yep, but it varies for each player based on their own history, position and age. And it is important to balance it against the potential reward. Given the paltry number of 2B who are actually above-average past age-32, it seems highly likely to me that any free agent seasons the Twins potentially buy-out would be, at best, for average production. Again, using the Kipnis/Carpenter contracts as a template, paying $15+MM per season for (hopefully!) average performance doesn't seem like a huge coup for the Twins. I definitely don't think the reward balances out the risk in this case.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Cost-certainty, man, and cross your fingers.

The cost certainty was awesome with Span -- he made $5 mil then $6 mil in two seasons with Washington, plus a $9 mil team option this year.

 

I think it will be less awesome at Kipnis/Carpenter rates -- both scheduled to make $13-$14 mil in each of their last two years, plus options at $16-$18 mil.  But getting Dozier's age 32-33 seasons, without having to guarantee anything beyond that, might be worth it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Again, using the Kipnis/Carpenter contracts as a template, paying $15+MM per season for (hopefully!) average performance doesn't seem like a huge coup for the Twins. I definitely don't think the reward balances out the risk in this case.

To be fair, the $15 mil salaries in the last few seasons also come with a discount on the earlier seasons.  Still a risk as it is all guaranteed, but it's not quite a $15 mil per season risk.

[Kwak]

Fallacy:  Free agents are paid according to "their WAR".  Free agents negoiate according to supply/demand--unless they choose to "take less for 'other' reasons".  Statistics are not scripture.  There are other factors.

 

Signing Dozier, as implied in an earlier post, sends a message to other players.  Perform and "get paid" is only part of that message.  The Front Office needs fixtures on the team for stability for fans and for other players, as well as for organizational planning and control.  How much is Dozier worth?  We shall find out shortly.  Since its Pohlad's money (and not mine!) I won't get upset all that much.

[jimmer]

I don't think anyone is saying that all agents specifically take a players WAR and says he has this WAR therefore he needs this much.  Especially when you know how they come up with the value.

[tobi0040]

A six year deal for Santana would have been perfect.  He was a 25-year-old Cy Young winning lefty, the best in the game.  If we're assuming all things remain equal as far as injuries go, he would have been healthy through the first five seasons and only gotten hurt with a month left in the final year of his contract. 

 

Agreed on Johan

 

Age 28   219 IP, 3.33 ERA

Age 29   234 IP, 2.53 ERA

Age 30,  166 IP, 3.13 ERA

Age 31,  199 IP, 2.98 ERA

[tobi0040]

Signing Dozier, as implied in an earlier post, sends a message to other players.  Perform and "get paid" is only part of that message.  The Front Office needs fixtures on the team for stability for fans and for other players, as well as for organizational planning and control.  How much is Dozier worth?  We shall find out shortly.  Since its Pohlad's money (and not mine!) I won't get upset all that much.

 

Completely agree. If Hunter is worth $10M with mentoring making up a large chunk of that...having Dozier around at an average of 8-9M to do that as well as accumulate WAR at a rate of 5 a year is not a bad thing.  That WAR can steadlily go down to the 3 range toward the end and that is okay

[jimmer]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/brian-dozier-and-extensions-for-position-players/

 

'Brian Dozier is an ideal candidate for an extension. He has had two solid years in a row, including his breakout in 2014. He is set to make just around the minimum of $507,500 this season, making this spring an opportune time to work out a deal before he hits arbitration after the year.'

[TheLeviathan]

That's the risk for practically every player, isn't it?

 

Not all third year players are almost 28 with team control through their prime years.  

 

Given the combination of production, age, and team control - anything approaching 6/52 would be totally unnecessary.  He has been healthy thus far but halfway through a six year deal his risk of injury and dip in performance will increase substantially as his costs escalate.  

 

I'd probably do something like 4/28 with an option in the 8-9 range.