Nishioka

[jctwins]

It's refreshing to see JJ Hardy threads again. Perhaps the good old days aren't so far away after all. Would Nick care to join in this discussion? I see an Orlando Hudson comment in your future!

[one_eyed_jack]

JJ Hardy is a nice player but I think the gushing over him is a bit excessive. You'd think we were talking about the second coming of Ernie Banks here.

 

He had the power surge last year, but his numbers so far this year are pretty similar to Doumit's. And for good reason, I don't see a whole lot of gushing over Doumit.

 

 

The Nishioka issue aside, I'd rather be developing Dozier than overpaying Hardy.

.

[Highabove]

I still wonder, who in the organization was responsible for recommending Nishioka. Its one thing to miss on draft picks and prospects but the scouting on Nishi was absolute incompetence. Is this person or persons, still with us? Bill Smith went on advice and recommendations. I will not point the finger torwards him on this one.

[PseudoSABR]

I vaguely recall a named scout connected to Nishi. There was (evidently and obviously) a glowing scouting recommendation for Nishi internal to the Front Office. I wonder if that scout still works for the Twins.

[Nick Nelson]

I vaguely recall a named scout connected to Nishi. There was (evidently and obviously) a glowing scouting recommendation for Nishi internal to the Front Office. I wonder if that scout still works for the Twins.

Actually I remember coming across a copy of the scouting report on Nishioka (it was floating around online at some point, I think). It really wasn't that complimentary. Basically said he had the tools to be maybe a decent MLB regular, not a star. Clearly even that proved to be inaccurate, but the Twins must have been going off something other than straight scouting input to make this decision.

[Highabove]

I vaguely recall a named scout connected to Nishi. There was (evidently and obviously) a glowing scouting recommendation for Nishi internal to the Front Office. I wonder if that scout still works for the Twins.

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[glunn]

Maybe someone should have read this scout's report: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/thoughts-on-nishioka/

[MWLFan]

Wasn't the whole Nishi thing supposed to bring in $$$'s from Japan as the folks there got to see one of their stars play on the big stage. Didn't the Twins envision thousands of Nishi jersey being sold in Toyko? Broadcasting the beauty of Target Field to all those possible customers who might swing by as they visited the Mall of America? I have the funny feeling there was a money component to this that had nothing to do with baseball. I believe that part of this was expanding the Twins brand past the United States. When baseball reality meets marketing plans it is not always pretty.

[CDog]

JJ Hardy is a nice player but I think the gushing over him is a bit excessive. You'd think we were talking about the second coming of Ernie Banks here.

 

He had the power surge last year, but his numbers so far this year are pretty similar to Doumit's. And for good reason, I don't see a whole lot of gushing over Doumit.

 

 

The Nishioka issue aside, I'd rather be developing Dozier than overpaying Hardy.

.

Agree that Hardy has become one of those players that people like to inflate from reality to fit their narrative that the Twins are stupid and dumb and all the other teams are smart. That said, I didn't really get why he was let go when he was. And also, Doumit doesn't play a lot of shortstop, so that's probably not a great comparison. And on the opposite side of that, I think Doumit has been given a fair amount of credit for his contributions this year. As may be clear, I don't really have a point here!

[JB_Iowa]

I still wonder, who in the organization was responsible for recommending Nishioka. Its one thing to miss on draft picks and prospects but the scouting on Nishi was absolute incompetence. Is this person or persons, still with us? Bill Smith went on advice and recommendations. I will not point the finger torwards him on this one.

I will probably always wonder about this as well. Was it a failure of the scouting department? Did marketing concerns override scouting reservations? Did Dave St. Peter as team Pres (and marketing strategist) play a role in the baseball side of the operations in this instance?

 

I'm sure we'll never know. Personally I'm convinced that it was a complete organizational failure (and that, for that reason, no one will ever have to take responsibility). I suspect that the scouting reports were "just good enough" that the final decision-makers allowed marketing considerations to overcome any reservations that may have been in those reports (in a way that they wouldn't have done if they player had been from the U.S.) This was also done at the time when they were riding high on new TF revenues -- allowing them to take a risk that they wouldn't have taken earlier.

 

But I doubt we'll ever know for sure.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Agree that Hardy has become one of those players that people like to inflate from reality to fit their narrative that the Twins are stupid and dumb and all the other teams are smart. That said, I didn't really get why he was let go when he was. And also, Doumit doesn't play a lot of shortstop, so that's probably not a great comparison. And on the opposite side of that, I think Doumit has been given a fair amount of credit for his contributions this year. As may be clear, I don't really have a point here!

I was iffy on the Hardy move when it happened. I didn't really like it much but had more faith in the Twins scouting department regarding Nishioka. Turns out, they really blew it. It makes me question the amount of thought and research that went into the move before the trigger was pulled on the deal. Anyone who watched him play for more than a few minutes had to realize he is not a ML shortstop. And if you know that, why would you make the deal if it's a choice between Hardy and Nishioka? The Twins needed a shortstop, not a second baseman.

 

Well, they kinda needed both but shortstops are much harder to find and they already had one on the roster under team control.

[old nurse]

Consider for 2011 the Twins paid 5 million for the rights, 3 million in salary and .5 million to get rid of Hardy and get Nishi. Hardy's salary was 5.8 million. The remainder of the money could have been spent on a Cris Camuano or better type of pitcher. The end result would have been a far more successful season. 8 less starts by Slowey, Duensing in the pen could have made for a far different season.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

I have a buddy who works as a camerman for a local news outlet. They were going to do a story on him at the beginning of last year, a get to know him kind of piece where they followed him around town and talked about the transition from Japan to the US. Apparently Nishi smokes and when they asked him to put out his cigarette he got pissed and stormed off. They never did the piece. That doesn't necessarily mean anything but it might be an insight into how seriously he takes his conditioning.

[Paul]

I take solace from only one aspect of the whole Nishioka / Hardy swap. And that is that the lessons Gardenhire learned will stick. I don't know the problem between Gardy and Hardy, I can only speculate, which I've done plenty on this site in other postings. But, can you imagine the frustration Gardy felt, and the aging it caused him, when he had to watch that kid stumble around 2B until he broke his leg? And then, because of the investment, be convinced SS might work better because he couldn't avoid the runner as a 2B. And then have to watch that kid stumble around at SS, the place your leader on D plays. Remember the Pavano emotional display in the dugout? You think he was the only player that felt that? No, that was a rough clubhouse last year.

 

So anyway, I take a little solace in the fact that, because of the magnitude of the pain, the lessons will not be forgotten. I just hope the aging on him doesn't cause him to wanna be shut of this place.

[Loosey]

He had the power surge last year, but his numbers so far this year are pretty similar to Doumit's. And for good reason, I don't see a whole lot of gushing over Doumit.

.

Put Doumit's line in place of any shortstop that has played here recently and I think we would all be very pleased. (.253/.313/.405) with 6 HR's. If that were Dozier's line the Twins would be ecstatic. For a shortstop that line is very quality in my opinion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Put Doumit's line in place of any shortstop that has played here recently and I think we would all be very pleased. (.253/.313/.405) with 6 HR's. If that were Dozier's line the Twins would be ecstatic. For a shortstop that line is very quality in my opinion.

Considering that the league average OPS for a shortstop is somewhere around .690, everyone should think that's a quality line.

[spideyo]

1. There was no "Nishioka trade." He was signed as a free agent after the Twins won bidding rights.

2. "Rumors?" The only rumors were coming from the Twins. Hardy was in his last yr of arb eligibility in 2011 and was under team control. WTF are you talking about?

3. Hardy hit .268/.320/.394 for the Twins. Not great, but pretty damn solid for a SS. In the second half, when he was over his injury, he put up a .304/.363/.442 line in over 200 PAs.

4. Hardy absolutely did NOT do "worse" in the field. Very solid SS.

 

Other than missing on virtually every "fact," nice post.

Ok, so I typed trade when I meant signing. Sorry. As far as the rumors, all I remember is reading things and hearing people talk about Hardy potentially leaving the twins. I don't remember the sources, it was a year and a half ago.

 

I didn't say Hardy was awful, but he wasn't spectacular at the plate, and was nowhere near his 2007-2008 peak numbers. Based on his 2009 and 2010 numbers and injuries, it wasn't hard to make the assumption that he wasn't going to return to All-Star form.

 

And in the field, he absolutely did do worse in 2010 than he did in 2009. He had the lowest fielding percentage he'd had since his rookie year. Again, it was easy to assume that he wasn't going to make a sudden recovery.

 

I would guess they were expecting that either Nishi or Casilla would field better than Hardy. They weren't expecting to need that much offense from SS, with the assumption that Thome, Kubel, Young, Mauer, Morneau, Span, Cuddyer, and Valencia would perform well at the plate. Clearly, that was an incorrect assumption, but after 2010 it was a fairly easy one to make.

[spideyo]

Actually, now that I think about it, it seems like the biggest mistake they made was getting rid of Hardy AND Punto. They really should have kept at least one of them around, just as insurance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And in the field, he absolutely did do worse in 2010 than he did in 2009. He had the lowest fielding percentage he'd had since his rookie year. Again, it was easy to assume that he wasn't going to make a sudden recovery.

Fielding percentage tells absolutely nothing about the quality of the player in the field.

 

On the other hand, Hardy's UZR for 2010 was pretty outstanding. It's hard to put too much weight into defensive metrics for half seasons but Hardy has always been solid defensively. 2010 was no different.

[Paul]

...Hardy has always been solid defensively. 2010 was no different.

For Hardy's entire career, save 09 when the Brewers dicked him around and 10 when he was battling an injured wrist, he has been well above average ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL.

[Brock Beauchamp]

For Hardy's entire career, save 09 when the Brewers dicked him around and 10 when he was battling an injured wrist, he has been well above average ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL.

I was definitely understating Hardy's defensive prowess. If healthy, he's in the upper echelon of shortstops defensively. In his off years, he's merely "well above average".

[Loosey]

My point exactly. I was pointing out how someone was comparing Hardy's numbers this year to Doumit's and essentially saying Hardy is no good. Hardy's numbers, while not All-Star caliber, are very good for a shortstop and I would take him back in a heartbeat.

[Paul]

My point exactly. I was pointing out how someone was comparing Hardy's numbers this year to Doumit's and essentially saying Hardy is no good. Hardy's numbers, while not All-Star caliber, are very good for a shortstop and I would take him back in a heartbeat.

Perhaps someone who compares a SS offensive stats with a backup catcher's should not be considered credible.

 

I wonder if Gardy would "take him back in a heartbeat"?

[jokin]

I will probably always wonder about this as well. Was it a failure of the scouting department? Did marketing concerns override scouting reservations? Did Dave St. Peter as team Pres (and marketing strategist) play a role in the baseball side of the operations in this instance?

 

I'm sure we'll never know. Personally I'm convinced that it was a complete organizational failure (and that, for that reason, no one will ever have to take responsibility). I suspect that the scouting reports were "just good enough" that the final decision-makers allowed marketing considerations to overcome any reservations that may have been in those reports (in a way that they wouldn't have done if they player had been from the U.S.) This was also done at the time when they were riding high on new TF revenues -- allowing them to take a risk that they wouldn't have taken earlier.

 

But I doubt we'll ever know for sure.

I agree 100%. You've correctly identified why this situation has evidentiary fingerprints in place, all the way from the field manager to the top of the organization. This is why I suggested that St. Peter also has to go, along with much of the FO braintrust. We still probably won't get to the bottom of this fiasco, but in hiring the caliber of people I proposed, at least the type of thinking that brought it about will be gone for good.

[jokin]

Originally Posted by one_eyed_jack JJ Hardy is a nice player but I think the gushing over him is a bit excessive. You'd think we were talking about the second coming of Ernie Banks here.

 

He had the power surge last year, but his numbers so far this year are pretty similar to Doumit's. And for good reason, I don't see a whole lot of gushing over Doumit.

 

The Nishioka issue aside, I'd rather be developing Dozier than overpaying Hardy.

 

Originally Posted by CDog

 

 

Agree that Hardy has become one of those players that people like to inflate from reality to fit their narrative that the Twins are stupid and dumb and all the other teams are smart. That said, I didn't really get why he was let go when he was. And also, Doumit doesn't play a lot of shortstop, so that's probably not a great comparison. And on the opposite side of that, I think Doumit has been given a fair amount of credit for his contributions this year. As may be clear, I don't really have a point here!

 

 

 

 

 

 

For Hardy's entire career, save 09 when the Brewers dicked him around and 10 when he was battling an injured wrist, he has been well above average ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL.

 

I should say so, definitely well above average! The stats below make the overwhelming case that he is in the elite group of SS. In the case of Hardy, the "narrative is the reality", no need for inflation. The Twins first made probably their second best trade of the millenium (other than Nathan?). Most knowledgeable Twins fans were ecstatic, as we hadn't had a SS of that style or caliber ever in a Twins uniform before. Within less than a year, the Twins converted that into perhaps a tie for their worst trade of the millenium (Hardy for Hoey/Ramos for Capps). Hardy isn't Banks, don't think anyone accused him of that, but his career numbers don't lie:

 

UZR Rankings for all MLB Shortstops:

 

 

2005-12: #1

2006-12: #1

2007-12: #1

2008-12: #1

2009-12: #2

2010-12: #2

2011-12: #2

 

 

WAR Rankings for all MLB Shortstops

 

 

2005-12: #8

2006-12: #6

2007-12: #6

2008-12: #7

2009-12: #10

2010-12: #4

2011-12: #4

 

I'd be willing to split the difference and suggest that the Twins are either stupid or dumb. Take your pick.

[jokin]

Considering that the league average OPS for a shortstop is somewhere around .690, everyone should think that's a quality line.

Actually, AL OPS average for SS is only .673, so this is a quality line, even in a "down" year. Furthermore, Hardy's current BABIP ranks him at 29th with a .253 average, so his numbers will undoubtedly rise significantly as his BABIP normalizes and his luck improves to more typical career numbers.

[DaveW]

Yes, JJ Hardy is never going to be a hall of fame guy and prob won't make any all star games anytime soon.

But the fact remains he is clearly the best SS the Twins have had in like 20 years. Defensively they have had no one better I could post UZR and other stats but its been done and if you truly believe Hardy wasn't elite defensively then frankly there isn't much to be said to combat it. Also for the record, I wasn't totally against trading Hardy, but getting a garbage, medicore no upside RP in return for him was laughable, and your replacement for him was an overpaid medicore Japanese player was just as absurd. Offensively the numbers speak for themselves:

2012: Dozier 56 OPS+

2011: Nishioka 48 OPS+

2010: Hardy 96 OPS+

2009: O Cab 95 OPS+ (clearly a downgrade defensively, but FWIW they got rid of him as well for nothing)

2008: Adam Everett 48 OPS+

2005-2007:Bartlett 82 OPS+ (Solid all around for a while, again, why the hell do you just toss him into the Delmon Trade? Also Hardy was better)

1999-2005: Christian Guzman 73 OPS+

1993-1998: Pat Meares 73 OPS+

Again, Hardy isn't going to get confused for A-Rod, Tulo or Reyes anytime soon, but at the end of the day he still is the best option we have had in a long time, letting him go for freaking Jim Hoey when he still had a year of team control on him should go down as Bill Smiths biggest blunder, fortunately for Bill Smith though he had a couple other deals go down that out stunk that garbage.

[CDog]

Since I was directly quoted in one post and implicated in others, I'd like to reiterate something from that quoted post: I think Hardy is a very good shortstop and would love if he was employed in that role for the Twins. What I actually said was that people often go overboard in their praise to make an invalid point that feeds their negativity, when simply the truth would suffice to make a valid point (that in this case, the Twins made a weird and poor choice).

[CDog]

Fielding percentage tells absolutely nothing about the quality of the player in the field.

I'm fairly confident that the 15-20% or so fielding percentage I'd put up would be quite telling of the quality of the player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2009: O Cab 95 OPS+ (clearly a downgrade defensively, but FWIW they got rid of him as well for nothing)

I don't think the Twins had a choice with Cabrera. Didn't his contract include a by-line that the team could not offer him arbitration? Or was that Hudson?