Baseball Prospectus Publishes 2015 Top 10 Twins Prospect List

[Parker Hageman]

You can read the profiles here but here is the list:

 

 

Compared to last year's list:

 

 

Discuss.

[nytwinsfan]

In the Prospects on the Rise section they also talk about Lewin Diaz, who they basically say may be the second coming of Sano in terms of power, albeit with less quickness and athleticism. Hopefully Sano can remain at 3rd base, because between Mauer, Vargas, Minier, and now Diaz, there may be plenty of other contenders for 1st base and DH in the next five years.

 

[nytwinsfan]

Also, there seemed to be a couple omissions and errors that cast doubt on their research. They say Rosario was suspended for a performance enhancing drug, which isn't my understanding. They also didn't mention Thorpe's elbow problems at all, which seems like a serious oversight.

[gunnarthor]

In the comment section, someone asked whether Walker, Kepler, Jorge and Graham were org guys at this point.  Chris Mellon responded:

 

"I wouldn't say they are organizational guys, though Adam Brett Walker may be the closest of the group, but there wasn't enough traction for either of the three to be included within this one at the present time. Felix Jorge was in some initial discussions for consideration for OTR, but the concerns on the progression of the command profile were a deciding factor. I do like Jorge the most out of the mentioned group.

JR Graham doesn't slot into this one. This is a very deep one and the Top 10 is going to be well represented in the Top 101 to give you an idea of how deep we consider this system."

[nicksaviking]

In the Prospects on the Rise section they also talk about Lewin Diaz, who they basically say may be the second coming of Sano in terms of power, albeit with less quickness and athleticism. Hopefully Sano can remain at 3rd base, because between Mauer, Vargas, Minier, and now Diaz, there may be plenty of other contenders for 1st base and DH in the next five years.

 

There is only four years left on Mauer's contract.  I don't think we're going to have to worry about him blocking Minier and Diaz should it come to that.

[nytwinsfan]

There is only four years left on Mauer's contract.  I don't think we're going to have to worry about him blocking Minier and Diaz should it come to that.

I hope you are right, but this team has a mentality of keeping/bringing back the band, especially with someone like Mauer.

[Linus]

I hope you are right, but this team has a mentality of keeping/bringing back the band, especially with someone like Mauer.

Four years from now, there is a much better chance that Joe Mauer is a better ballplayer than Minier or Diaz, so there is a substantial chance that we will want Joe back.  Prospects are suspects until they aren't - Mauer has 3 batting titles and an MVP.  Perspective is in order, here.....

[nytwinsfan]

Four years from now, there is a much better chance that Joe Mauer is a better ballplayer than Minier or Diaz, so there is a substantial chance that we will want Joe back.  Prospects are suspects until they aren't - Mauer has 3 batting titles and an MVP.  Perspective is in order, here.....

 

I understand that some people think Mauer is the greatest Twin ever and others think the only thing he is the greatest at is being overrated. I'm probably somewhere in the middle, but in four years he will be 35 going on 36 . . . And the original point was about Sano. Whether it is Mauer, Vargas, Minier, or Diaz, it would be really great if Sano could stick at 3rd.

[KGB]

Four years from now, there is a much better chance that Joe Mauer is a better ballplayer than Minier or Diaz, so there is a substantial chance that we will want Joe back.  Prospects are suspects until they aren't - Mauer has 3 batting titles and an MVP.  Perspective is in order, here.....

 

In four years, Mauer will be nine year removed from his MVP and batting title, so if our loaded minor league system doesn't have a better hitting first baseman than a 35 year old Mauer, we will be in trouble.

[Linus]

In four years, Mauer will be nine year removed from his MVP and batting title, so if our loaded minor league system doesn't have a better hitting first baseman than a 35 year old Mauer, we will be in trouble.

Well, we actually don't know that.  Here is my point: I know Mauer will be older and not at the same level of his batting title or MVP seasons.  However, the percentage chance that any of these guys (let alone Minier or Diaz) ever even comes close to being the player Mauer has been or even will be at 35 is just not that great.  Your are underestimating how difficult it is to get to Mauer's level or even something close to it.  Hell, other than Sano, there is a greater chance they don't even make the bigs...

[gunnarthor]

Well, we actually don't know that.  Here is my point: I know Mauer will be older and not at the same level of his batting title or MVP seasons.  However, the percentage chance that any of these guys (let alone Minier or Diaz) ever even comes close to being the player Mauer has been or even will be at 35 is just not that great.  Your are underestimating how difficult it is to get to Mauer's level or even something close to it.  Hell, other than Sano, there is a greater chance they don't even make the bigs...

Mauer wasn't that good last year.  While picking the individual who will replace him at first base isn't easy, that doesn't mean that it won't be easy for the team to replace him with someone.  We just don't know that person's name yet.

[Linus]

Mauer wasn't that good last year.  While picking the individual who will replace him at first base isn't easy, that doesn't mean that it won't be easy for the team to replace him with someone.  We just don't know that person's name yet.

Obviously, Mauer wasn't that good last year, which may or may not mean anything going forward.  And of course, they will replace him with someone....my point is that people are overestimating prospect success rates and underestimating how difficult it is to achieve the level that Mauer has produced over his career or even what he is likely to produce at age 35. 

[Dantes929]

In four years, Mauer will be nine year removed from his MVP and batting title, so if our loaded minor league system doesn't have a better hitting first baseman than a 35 year old Mauer, we will be in trouble.

I expect that in 4 years Mauer will be 9 years removed  from his MVP but consider it a decent possibility that he will be less than 4 years removed from a batting title.   In 2013 he hit .327 and it is reasonable to suspect the concussion to have helped derail his 2014.   The last Twin with a concussion that fans wrote off as done or certain to never regain star stature just won the NL batting title with an average equal to Mauer's career average.   Way to early to consider 2014 to be his new normal.   

[gunnarthor]

Obviously, Mauer wasn't that good last year, which may or may not mean anything going forward.  And of course, they will replace him with someone....my point is that people are overestimating prospect success rates and underestimating how difficult it is to achieve the level that Mauer has produced over his career or even what he is likely to produce at age 35. 

Yes, we do tend to forget how tough it is to develop top prospects.  Conversely, you also forget how often unknown prospects develop into very good players - Utley, Koskie, AJ, Radke, Santana, Youk ....

 

As to Mauer, yes, he was pretty good behind the plate and the Twins are unlikely to develop another HOF caliber catcher soon.  But he hasn't really been that guy for a while.  And there isn't a lot in his past to expect that he's going to be better at 35.  He's been injury prone and missed a lot of games in his prime.  Not sure why anyone should expect him to be better as he gets older.  

[jay]

"This is a very deep one and the Top 10 is going to be well represented in the Top 101 to give you an idea of how deep we consider this system."

The top 6 seem like shoo-ins to the Top 101, but does it stop there?

 

All the way to Polanco at 9 would even seem reasonable.

[gunnarthor]

The top 6 seem like shoo-ins to the Top 101, but does it stop there?

 

All the way to Polanco at 9 would even seem reasonable.

IIRC, they had Thorpe at 101 last year so I think 8 is a pretty good guess.

[dxpavelka]

Mauer wasn't that good last year.  While picking the individual who will replace him at first base isn't easy, that doesn't mean that it won't be easy for the team to replace him with someone.  We just don't know that person's name yet.

Every player has a down year at one point or another.  It's called a slump.  Mauer's just happened to be last year.  If he performs at last year's level for the next 4 years it will be easy to replace him.  If he performs at the level he performed at prior to last year it will be less easy.  Chances are his performance will be somewhere in the middle.  The decision will most likely be difficult either way.  That's why we as fans are lucky that our evaluations are only made on blogs like this and we don't have to live with the repercussions, whatever they may be.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Rather surprised to see Gonsalves on that list.  I like him, but that seems a bit high.

[bird]

The top 6 seem like shoo-ins to the Top 101, but does it stop there?

 

All the way to Polanco at 9 would even seem reasonable.

One of the better things about this list is that at least a half-dozen of our NEXT 10 prospects would make it onto Detroit's Top 10.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

This is the first list I've seen (for this year) with Berrios behind Meyer or Stewart. Did BP give any detail on that?

[gunnarthor]

Rather surprised to see Gonsalves on that list.  I like him, but that seems a bit high.

Maybe, and I don't know anything about him other than stats, but - he's a 6'5" lefty who put up some pretty good numbers at A ball while only 19.  Sickels ranked him #13 in the org and wrote that he could leap ahead next year.  I like him as the break out pitcher this year.  

[tobi0040]

Seems to be some assumptions regarding Mauer, that we wouldn't keep him around at 35.  I see a chance we pull a NY-Jeter and keep him around even if it may not be the best thing.

[Ncgo4]

Joe Mauer is an enigma. Supreme bat control, great eye who demonstrated power...1 year. He could have been the clubhouse leader of the team, but appears to this outsider, to have avoided that role with all his mind and soul.

 

It was correctly pointed out that the likelihood of a minor leaguer making it to the bigs is slight. It is, in my opinion equally unlikely that our Mr. M will remain healthy enough to contribute for another two years either, let alone another four.

[DJL44]

Joe Mauer is a threadjack here.

 

Notice that Rosario and May don't make the top 10. There is a lot of talent.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Maybe, and I don't know anything about him other than stats, but - he's a 6'5" lefty who put up some pretty good numbers at A ball while only 19.  Sickels ranked him #13 in the org and wrote that he could leap ahead next year.  I like him as the break out pitcher this year.  

 

I'd agree with Sickels on this personally.  I think there's a few more guys who should be higher than Gonsalves (and don't get me wrong, I really like the kid).  As was mentioned earlier, Polanco (number 9), was in the top 101 last season.  They may have dropped him down a bit, but to me this means that Gonsalves is a top 150 prospect in their book.  It just seems a bit high and rather odd that guys like May (possibly ineligible), Rosario, and Pinto are somehow missing. 

 

It seems like they are pretty much assuming he's going to break out this year.  I hope they are right. 

[jimmer]

In today's Fangraph's chat, I asked Kiley MacDaniel (Fangraph's senior prospect person), how many Twins are in his top 50 (meaning top 50 MLB prospects).  He said, 'Probably 3'. 

[gunnarthor]

In today's Fangraph's chat, I asked Kiley MacDaniel (Fangraph's senior prospect person), how many Twins are in his top 50 (meaning top 50 MLB prospects).  He said, 'Probably 3'. 

Sounds about right.  BP loves the Twins more than most - they included Thrope in their top 101 last year.  Fangraphs loved them about the least, IIRC, with 6 in their top 100 but two of those (Stewart and Rosario) having 'meh' years.  I could see Stewart dropping out of his top 50.  Not sure how he'll rank Gordon.  

 

(Also, I believe Marc Hulet did their top 100 last year and MacDaniel replaced him).