The Elephant in the Room: Joe Mauer

[D. Hocking]

"dbminn, on 11 Dec 2014 - 07:55 AM, said:
 

To those that say he's been on a rather dramatic decline, here's his 2013 stat line:

.324/.404/.476

 

Only Mauer's 2006 and 2009 seasons were better. It's not crazy to believe he could have an upside that looks similar to 2013."

 

Plus wasn't he on pace to hit 10 to 15 home runs in 2013 before losing the last six weeks to the concussion? I know people want more than that, but I think it shows that there is a good chance only hitting four home runs might have been due more to health than that is what he is going to hit from here on out.  There is a chance that last year was due more to age and the body breaking down and not due to other issues, but we really won't know until we see how this year plays out.

 

I think you need to consider he might be breaking down, but I don't think you can just throw out his 2014 stats and assume this is who he is now - at least not yet.

[KGB]

According to Baseball Reference, Mauer after the DL (Post-August 10) had a line of .289/.397/.408. BR has Mauer's OPS+ vs. splits at 137 and 134 for August and September.

 

I expect he'll have a better average and slugging percentage if he can stay healthy. 

 

To those that say he's been on a rather dramatic decline, here's his 2013 stat line:

 

.324/.404/.476

 

Only Mauer's 2006 and 2009 seasons were better. It's not crazy to believe he could have an upside that looks similar to 2013.

[KGB]

                                                       Runs per  RBI per
Age     BA          OBP     SLG    OPS    year      year
22-27   0.328   0.411   0.477   0.887     82       76
28-31   0.304   0.389   0.421   0.810     60       54

 

Maybe 2013 is possible, but the it sure looks unlikely based on the trends. 

[dbminn]

Averages are not useful when determining trends. Variability is what's interesting. He was injured in 2011 and a chunk of 2014. This is really the question: Can he stay healthy?

 

No, he will never have a season like 2009 again but 2012 and 2013 were just fine.

[SwainZag]

Was that a typo?  The Twins need him to do what only 3 players in all of MLB did last year (VMart, Abreu, McCutchen)?  That seems like some exceptionally steep expectations...

 

I'm guessing it wasn't a typo.  People want to hold Mauer to unrealistic expectations and then completely bash him when he comes up short of them.  It's nothing new.

[dbminn]

An example re: block averages. Here are his slash line averages in 5 year / 1 year / 5 year blocks:

 

2004-2008   .317/.399/.457

2009            .365/.444/.587

2010-2014   .309/.392/.432

 

This scenario recognizes 2009 was a career year, with even block averages on either side. Now he's showing just moderate regression, or almost none, if you consider he's been at Target Field since 2010.

[tobi0040]

An example re: block averages. Here are his slash line averages in 5 year / 1 year / 5 year blocks:

 

2004-2008   .317/.399/.457

2009            .365/.444/.587

2010-2014   .309/.392/.432

 

This scenario recognizes 2009 was a career year, with even block averages on either side. Now he's showing just moderate regression, or almost none, if you consider he's been at Target Field since 2010.

 

A guy that gets on base 39% of the time is a total hack. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

According to Baseball Reference, Mauer after the DL (Post-August 10) had a line of .289/.397/.408. BR has Mauer's OPS+ vs. splits at 137 and 134 for August and September.

 

I expect he'll have a better average and slugging percentage if he can stay healthy. 

 

To those that say he's been on a rather dramatic decline, here's his 2013 stat line:

 

.324/.404/.476

 

Only Mauer's 2006 and 2009 seasons were better. It's not crazy to believe he could have an upside that looks similar to 2013.

2013 upside is going to be tough -- that was his second-best season by wRC+, and it was fueled by uncharacteristic BABIP and isolated power.

 

FWIW, Steamer projects him at a 119 wRC+ for 2015, very close to his post-DL 2014 performance (basically just knocking down the walk rate from that late season sample to his career average).  I'd put his more probable upside at his career average 131 wRC+, and the downside at a repeat 2014 (106 wRC+).

[Linus]

I think it is an interesting observation of human nature that we have 28 posts regarding the Twins being on the cusp of signing one of the better free agent pitchers available (something we've all been clamoring for) and we have 68 posts beating the Joe Mauer dead horse to death - again.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think it is an interesting observation of human nature that we have 28 posts regarding the Twins being on the cusp of signing one of the better free agent pitchers available (something we've all been clamoring for) and we have 68 posts beating the Joe Mauer dead horse to death - again.

This thread is 4 days old.

 

Also, there is another Ervin Santana thread currently with 157 replies since yesterday.

[Trevor0333]

He certainly seemed to be almost back to his self in the 2nd half.

 

He'll be a good hitter but will not live up to the contract as a 1B. It's not ideal but is far from crippling.

[nicksaviking]

This thread is 4 days old.

 

Also, there is another Ervin Santana thread currently with 157 replies since yesterday.

 

And not all of us have been clamoring for him.

[KGB]

A guy that gets on base 39% of the time is a total hack. 

 

Who said Mauer was a hack?  But seeing him as a player in the decline shouldn't be that offensive to people. 

[Linus]

This thread is 4 days old.

 

Also, there is another Ervin Santana thread currently with 157 replies since yesterday.

Of course, you are right - I was being too literal (or maybe you).  My point is that I'm surprised that with all the trades, player movement, etc. that people are interested in beating this subject to death again.

 

There is so much stuff happening that its hard to keep track of - most of which is pretty darn interesting.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Of course, you are right - I was being too literal (or maybe you).  My point is that I'm surprised that with all the trades, player movement, etc. that people are interested in beating this subject to death again.

 

There is so much stuff happening that its hard to keep track of - most of which is pretty darn interesting.

Posting to a thread to say how you're above posting in a thread: always classy.

 

This Mauer thread was posted before the winter meetings began.  It has 74 posts in 4 days (including the last few, debating its thread-worthiness).

 

Since it was posted, 15 separate articles/threads have been posted in this forum alone discussing this week's speculation and transactions, accumulating a total of 661 posts as of right now.  Despite the fact that the Twins haven't officially done anything yet other than make their Rule 5 pick.

 

There is also a "MLB Baseball" forum at this site for non-Twins discussion.

[tobi0040]

Who said Mauer was a hack?  But seeing him as a player in the decline shouldn't be that offensive to people. 

 

The hack comment was slightly tongue and cheek.  

 

Here is my personal opinion.  He became an above average defensive 1B in one season. His numbers at the plate were not Joe like, but he did come back from a concussion and switched positions, putting up a 107 OPS +.  Which is not shabby. I aslo think he needs to and will adjust to the way defenses play him. If he normalizes to an OPS in the .820 range he would have ranked as the 8th best 1B in all of baseball.  The fact that the Twins gave him $23M a year through his age 36 season is the Twins issue, not Joes.  Very few players would have said no, pay  me less.  If he never normalizes, it would have been the result of concussion issues which are really not his fault. 

 

Given that....some of the following comments on this thread strike me as off -base:

 

He is a below average 1B.  We could just put Vargas there.

 

He is a mediocre 1B

 

He needs to be moved down the batting order to 5 or 6 to avoid all the rally killing double plays

 

He needs to play catcher

 

As long as he has an OPS of .950 I am okay with him (3 players in baseball did that last year)

 

You need 40 HR's at 1B (one player, an OF did that last year)

[Secondary User]

                                                       Runs per  RBI per

Age     BA          OBP     SLG    OPS    year      year

22-27   0.328   0.411   0.477   0.887     82       76

28-31   0.304   0.389   0.421   0.810     60       54

 

Maybe 2013 is possible, but the it sure looks unlikely based on the trends. 

 

You also have to consider the change in the run environment over that time. 

[ashbury]

He needs to be moved down the batting order to 5 or 6 to avoid all the rally killing double plays

I meant to comment on this before (I realize you are re-posting this tongue in cheek).  Joe grounded into 12 double plays in 2014.  That ties him for 85th in the majors.  Renowned rally-killer MIguel Cabrera had 21.  It took 31 to lead the majors.

 

Mauer played only 120 games, so if you pro-rate to 160 his total would be 16 (tied with world-class bum Giancarlo Stanton) - that would rank him a little higher, but many of the guys above him didn't play 150+ either.

[D. Hocking]

The double-play talk definitely gets exaggerated (I think this might be helped by some of the radio media).  I remember seeing a tweet by Gleeman or Bollinger or some other sports writer responding to someone lamenting about Mauer hitting into another double play.  Gleeman/Bollinger or whoever simply responded that was Mauer's first double-play in over three weeks.

 

With his style of hitting, when he is in a funk he does tend to hit into more of them, but he is nowhere near double-play king people believe.  He had a particularly bad stretch a few years ago, and some of his critics have never quite been able to let that go. 

[jharaldson]

If he never normalizes, it would have been the result of concussion issues which are really not his fault. 

 

I think that this is a bit simplistic.  We have no direct evidence from Mauer or the Twins that the concussion impacted his 2014 season.  The only evidence we have is that he stated it did impact his offseason training.  I would personally put a number of reasons into a potential lack of normalization:

 

- Age

- Accumulation of Injuries

- Defensive shifts

- Inability to adjust appraoch at plate to mitigate the 3 items above

[stringer bell]

It is possible to bounce back and have a good year at age 32. Here are age 32 stats from the Twins Mount Rushmore: Carew--.853 OPS 139 OPS+ (batting champ), Tony-O-- .915 OPS 154 OPS+ (batting champ), and Harmon--1.011 OPS 177 OPS+ (MVP). I'm cheating a little bit with Harmon's numbers--they are listed as age 33, but he had a mid-season birthday and divided his season almost equally before and after that birthday. Carew had his MVP year at 31 and was traded after his 32 year, never reaching those heights for the Angels. Tony was injured and never the same after his 32 year and Harmon's 32/33 year was his best, followed by another great season, a good season and then rapid decline.

[stringer bell]

Trying to be fair to both sides of this argument: Mauer is one of the top four or five all-time hitters for the Twins. His '09 season might have been the best ever by a Twins player. Part of the reason for his success has been his ability to "do what he does" no matter what is going on around him.

 

If he wants to be a Hall-of-Famer, he now, for the first time really, has to make adjustments in his hitting--more swings early in the count, use the whole field, try to drive more hittable pitches--and it remains to be seen whether that will happen. It shouldn't be a shock to see him hit a homer and right fielders should not be able to work on their hangnails when he's hitting.

[tobi0040]

Trying to be fair to both sides of this argument: Mauer is one of the top four or five all-time hitters for the Twins. His '09 season might have been the best ever by a Twins player. Part of the reason for his success has been his ability to "do what he does" no matter what is going on around him.

 

If he wants to be a Hall-of-Famer, he now, for the first time really, has to make adjustments in his hitting--more swings early in the count, use the whole field, try to drive more hittable pitches--and it remains to be seen whether that will happen. It shouldn't be a shock to see him hit a homer and right fielders should not be able to work on their hangnails when he's hitting.

 

I think using the whole field is key and not hitting the ball in the exact same spot to each field.  It seemed like last year he was drilling the ball right at the outfielders.  He is talented enough and good enough with the bat to make this adjustment.