A Possible Budget Dilemma the Twins May Face

[DocBauer]

I believe there is a real potential financial Dilema to be considered now that we have our manager, the coaching staff will be in place soon, and FA is in the early stages. It's time to put the 2015 team together. The owner, the GM, the manager, fans, ground crew, beer vendors and secretaries know the Twins need help in the rotation, OF, and some tweaks to the bullpen. The team has some exciting young players on the roster, and others that will be there soon. But there is nothing wrong with using other methods to build the new Twins. A few key points:

 

1) The team broke from past spending tradition to outlay some pretty big checks last offseason. They attempted to add more to the roster, and even more to the payroll. They actually made a fairly significant investment by signing Morales.

 

2) Our GM has made a pretty strong public statement concerning pending payroll with the following statements. (Paraphrased)

a) $95M should be enough to build a competitive club

the team payroll shouldn't have to exceed $100M

c) he has money to spend money on a "single" FA...or...

d) he may elect to spread the money available on a few players

e) he has repeated the mantra that ownership has no restrictions placed on payroll

 

3) The team owner has stated rather publicly he wants the team to improve, and has echoed Ryan's statement regarding a lack of payroll restrictions.

 

This all brings about the proposed Dilema, as I see it. Before any moves are made, the payroll, as I have figured it, should be around $75M, give or take a little, but subtractions made, a few more still coming, but Milone and Duensing still part of the team. Which, for now, they both are. This would indicate the team has somewhere between $20-25M to make any significant moves.

 

There has been clamoring for the Twins to attempt a big splash for Scherzer or Lester, possibly Shields. Barring a big market shift, Scherzer and Lester are going to be looking for and expecting contracts that are 5-6-7 years in length at more than $20M per. Shields will be forced to settle for fewer years, 3-4 most likely, possibly for a bit less. Financially, the Twins could actually afford to make a move of this nature.

 

PRO: The Twins have a top of the rotation arm to combine with Hughes to give the entire staff and team a huge lift. Barring some major setback to the team, this FA SP improves and deepens not only the rotation in general, but also helps save the bullpen. He gives the team a real chance to win, and could almost single handedly provide 5-10 more wins per season vs some of the journeyman fodder than has marched out to the mound to start games for the Twins the last few seasons. He would also help provide a real charge in the fanbase, as well as change perceptions of the team in general. While there may be sunk costs the final couple of years of the proposed contract terms, both Mauer and Nolasco will be coming off the books in three years to help offset said sunk costs.

 

CON: The Twins pretty much shoot their load financially, with little to no finances available to address the OF situation, or provide much of anything to add to the bullpen. They may be forced to "dumpster dive" for a few possibles for a season or two while awaiting arrival of the top prospects. It also restricts immediate flexibility to make any moves should a key player become injured or suddenly ineffective. Further, it restricts the ability to re-sign the talented, younger, and hopefully "found" Hughes.

 

The second option available is to spread the same dollars around the roster. It would be awesome to find another Hughes out there, but unless I'm missing something/someone, there are no former top 100 prospects with big arms and big potential under the age of 30 with some past success that simply hasn't fully blossomed yet and may be primed to do so. But there are some 30yo and young 30yo's who have the potential to be very good bounce back candidates, who have the potential for anywhere from 12-16 wins and 190+ IP seasons if healthy, and the Twins and their new pitching coach just make a smart/right choice. Just for the sake of arguement, since he's mentioned a lot, could be a prime candidate, and would seem to be a "fit", I'll use Masterson as an example. Depending on how this year's FA market actual plays out, a pitcher of this nature will bring a minimum deal of $5M and would probably top out at $8M. This leaves money on the table for an OF option, or two, while still being able to drop a $M or $2 for a veteran Burton-like RP to deepen and stabilize the pen while integrating the likes of Tonkin, Achter, Oliveros and others, while awaiting the arrivals of Jones, Burdi, etc.

 

PRO: Making the right FA SP choice, pitching in a nice pitchers park like Target Field, working well with our new pitching coach, the rotation is still deeper, better, and that increases wins, potential wins, and lessens the burden on the bullpen. The Twins maintain financial flexibility to re-sign said pitcher, re-sign Hughes, or make a move to replace another player on the roster due to injury or sudden regression. It also allows the signing of a good to interesting option for the OF to deepen the lineup, and help settle the defense, at least for a season or two. And as mentioned, there is probably room for one solid RP veteran to flesh out the pen.

 

CON: You are not signing an ACE type pitcher, and probably not a SP to equal Hughes, despite a rotation upgrade. You could guess wrong on the signing. If you don't get innings, starts, and quality double digit wins, have you just blocked another young SP like May, Meyer or possibly Berrios from a partial to full year of development? In the long run, you could slow the rebuild of the rotation by a half to full season.

 

I don't know that either choice is necessarily right or wrong. But I think there is real value, and real risk with both options available. There is no question the move to Target Field has brought about a rise in payroll numbers compared to the old dome days. And the three highest payroll totals in Twins history were in 2010-11-12 when the Twins felt they had a chance to win, crossing $100M once. The Twins need a team to rebound, compete and win. They have stated, and shown previously, that they are willing to spend when the right move(s) are there, and the team has a chance to win. So further increases should be expected.

 

But for now, in the midst of retooling and rebuilding, despite the best laid plans of fantasy, we are not going to see $110-120M payroll numbers overnight. There are limitations. And if you pause to consider where we've been, where we're headed, and what options are available at this time, I feel these two options, as I've debated and presented, are what the Twins are currently faced with. I'd really like to hear everyone's thoughts.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I think if you can get Lester or Scherzer for 5 years at a bit more per year, say 5 for 140 instead of 7 for 175, you do it. Sell them on being able to sign another contract after this one at 35, instead of at 37. If that ties up all the money, so be it. The prospects are on the way, and if they're not enough to fill the holes, having a middling outfielder and a decent starter isn't going to change anything.

 

That being said, if we have Lester/Scherzer, Hughes, and then 3 of Gibson/Meyer/May/Nolasco/Milone, that's a good enough rotation to compete in the central. If it turns out we need an outfielder to challenge in 2016, I have to think TR would get permission to go for it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not excited about Lester or Shields personally. I'd be thrilled if they could get Scherzer, but I somehow doubt that. Personally, I think I'd go hard after a good LF. Gibson and May should improve naturally, and I suspect Nolasco will regress to the mean in a good way. With Meyer, Gilmartin, and Berrios knocking on the door, I think that money would be wiser spent on an LF that can both hit and play defense.

[jorgenswest]

Long term the Twins need to make a big signing or trade for a top player that will soon be a free agent and sign them to big contract.

 

Signings guys like Willingham are short term patches that delay finding a solution for the long term. Those signings continue the cycle of mediocrity.

 

Spend big on a pitcher. Play Schafer and Hicks early in the season. Be ready to bring up Sano (Plouffe to LF), Rosario or Buxton by June. Somewhere in that group there is a better chance for a long term solution than Hunter.

[Rosterman]

The problem with the big money pitchers, they should be able to match whatever the Twins offer unless the Twins pull an A-Rod deal or something and over-over spend. And why would they want to come here for similar money, or a reduced contract by years to play for a team that isn't winning...yet.

 

The Twins were lucky on Hughes. He was on a downswing and the Twins offered him a nice deal with good years. Like Correia, the Twins struck early on Nolasco and made him an offer he couldn't overlook, especially that 4th year, and why wait to see if the market plays up or down, and as he saw he struck gold because it played more down to the mid-level starters,

 

Yes, it would be nice to have that proven ace for the next 5-7 years. I am all for it if the funds are there, but also feel that if the free agent fr the team doesn't materialize, we could live with the overly expensive Buehrle for a season if we think he can give us the innings, keep the runs down at Target Field, and act as an inspiration for the rest of the starting staff, including prospects.

 

The Twins have a lot of fodder on their roster currently that could/could not be signed. None are that expensive (Plouffe is the most expensive and probably the mot tradeable out of spring training once he shows he has healed and if Sano produces). Otherwise, there isn't much others teams really want except for Hughes, Perkins and Maybe Dozier.

 

For the sake of spending money that you have to spend, I am not against resigning the Duensings, Milones, Swarzaks, Nunez and others who offer some major league quality and still have some worth, if nothing else flipping for a prospect to rid yourself of their salary if the time comes. If they are blocking the Beresfords, Tonkins, Achters, then I have no problem. If they are blocking the Burdi or Reeds, then I wouldn't bother to sign them, but I wish some of these decisions would be though thru during the season rather than allowing some pieces of worth to just walk out the door with no return.

 

I also would look hard at any offers for Gibson. If someone sees delight in Arcia and will give you quality, I'd do it. 

 

I hope Nolasco becomes an innings eater, that Hughes makes us want to extend his contract, and that we can get some dollars back for Pelfrey. And that Meyer and May make it all worthwhile that we gave up two centerfielders that would have made a dismal outfield the past two seasons shine.

[Kwak]

It is a pipedream to think the Twins will spend for a top-of-the rotation FA pitcher.  Ryan would counter that Pelfrey is the FA pitcher for 2015.  An OF is the most that will come--and I guess it will be a one-year patch as opposed to the needed all-star quality player needed.  Besides it's time to "run with" May and Meyer the guys who came as a result of gutting the OF. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

In the hypothetical world where the Twins sign a $100+ mil ace, I am pretty sure they would not see themselves limited by a 95-100 mil payroll cap and could address the OF as they saw fit.

 

The payroll cap presumes a frugal, conservative, stil rebuilding organization. Signing a FA ace would invalidate that presumption.

[pierre75275]

If the Twins sign a starter, the chances of seeing Mays or Meyer in the starting rotation diminish exponentially.  If they sign Lester I am okay with that, otherwise do not sign any SP or RP. Go big or go home as far as starting pitchers would go. Outfield is a different story. The Twins need outfielders more than pitchers in my opinion. The Twins need to target high speed, high OBP, high average guys. Think Peter B or John Jay from ST Louis, or Ben Revere or AJ Pollock for Arizona via trade.

[Brandon]

Why pay 150 million for an ace when you can trade for any number of pitchers who have one year left on their contract.  Buerhle, Kazmir, Parker (A's), Gee, Neise, Leake, Cuerto, Simon.....

 

The A's, Mets, and Cincinnati can use a SS.  We have Escobar.  We also have prospects and more we can include.  I have no idea why the posters on this site are even looking at Free Agent pitchers when there is no reason to do that.  All of the above pitchers are going to be Free agents next year and there will be more too.  Get a good pitcher for next year then be ready to go shopping next year.   

 

Our rotation needs a pitcher who can pitch 190-210 innings and contribute 12-16 wins.  doesn't matter if they are an ace or not.  Our bullpen can compensate for that.

[jay]

Why in the world would they trade away assets for a pitcher with one year of control and then go shopping next offseason? That makes no sense and completely wastes those assets.

 

Keep the assets and go shopping next year if it's not this year.

[jay]

The budget dilemma I see is actually a little different -- and goes beyond this offseason.

 

Next year, the only real money coming off the books is Pelfrey -- freeing up $5M.  That difference is easily gone when you account for arbitration raises to Fien, Escobar and Plouffe plus Perkins increasing contract.  Additionally, you now have Dozier eligible for arbitration and looking at a big raise (if not already extended). 

 

The year after that, Hughes and Suzuki becomes free agents -- freeing up $14M.  Even assuming neither of them are retained, a significant portion of that money is going to be eaten up by arb or contractual raises again to Dozier, Plouffe, Fien, Escobar and the newly arb eligible Gibson.

 

The takeaway here is that if the Twins shoot their financial load to acquire someone this offseason with significant future obligations via either free agency or trade, there isn't money coming off the books the next few years to go after additional guys.  It looks to me like the Twins have the financial ability (within realistic expectations of what will actually happen) to fire one big bullet of $15-20M or smaller ones totalling that. 

 

That bullet needs to fired after careful aim and it is fully possible that aim won't be zeroed in this offseason. 

[sthpstm]

I don't see the Twins signing one of the top 3 FA SP this year and I prefer they don't sign a FA SP (barring a trade of a current SP), unless it is a 1 year make good contract.  Overall, I think they need to determine what they may have in May, Meyer, and Malone.  I also think that, at this point, next years crop of FA SP is more appealing.  Compare these lists of what are arguably the best likely available SP this year and next:

Lester

Scherzer

Shields

Burnett

Kuroda

Liriano

Masterson

McCarthy

Peavy

Santana

 

Price
Samardzija

Zimmermann

Cueto

Kennedy
Latos

Buehrle

Chen

Fister

Gallardo

Iwakuma

Kazmir

Leake

Lohse

Norris

Porcello

 

You could argue about which class has the best top 3, but i think it's clear that next year has a deeper class of more desirable arms.  The other reason to roll with what you have now is that there may well be a number of available arms at the trade deadline if you are in the race and want to upgrade at that time.

[MileHighTwinsFan]

Spending big money on arms two years in a row seems very unlikely. The team is still a year away, at least, from truly competing.

 

A trade is far more likely, particularly if it is a pitcher where the team has several years of control.

 

That could mean parting with a top prospect or two.

 

Money is not the primary asset for the team, the deepen or league system is. Look for moves to come from there.

[howeda7]

It probably makes most sense to deal a Pinto or Rosario as the central piece in a trade for a starter with at least 2 years of control. If not, I'd rather roll the dice on someone like Masterson than spend the $ and years on Shields.

 

I disagree that they don't need to sign anyone. Hughes, Masterson, Nolasco and Gibson still allows one of May or Meyer to be in the rotation. I see no reason Milone or Pelfrey should be guaranteed anything. Milione can be in the BP and we should probably just cut bait with Pelfrey.

[kab21]

I would be very happy if the Twins have a >90M payroll next season.  I would also be happy if they onlyl signed 1-2 guys in FA instead of spreading the dollars around. 

 

Brandon McCarthy had a strange year.  His velocity jumped 2+mph and overall he put up a Hughes type stat line.  Not sure what to make of it but he could be a relative bargain in FA while others chase bigger names.  I would rather have McCarthy than Shields based on the expected contract costs.