Imagining Phil Hughes as Cliff Lee

[James Richter]

Check out this article at Fangraphs:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/imagining-phil-hughes-as-cliff-lee/

 

It basically points out that Hughes' career through age-28 bears an uncanny resemblance to Lee's career through age-29. I think it's pretty realistic about what Hughes would need to do continue in Lee's footsteps and what his chances are of doing that.

 

One of the crucial pieces is whether or not he can sustain the low HR/FB% he had this year. It may seem like an outlier, but his career HR/FB% in 479 IP on the road (mostly taking Yankee Stadium out of the equation) is 6.4%, very close to the 6.2% he allowed this year.

 

I like Hughes' chances of being a 5+ WAR pitcher again next year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I expect Hughes to regress a bit but remain a very good pitcher. I don't know if he can maintain a level comparable to Cliff Lee in his late 20s and early 30s but that'd be fantastic were it to happen.

[Mike Sixel]

Great article, you beat me to posting it here by minutes.

[Brandon]

I am more concerned with getting a 4th starting pitcher capable of winning 12 - 15 games with the ability to pitch 190 - 210 innings.  That and the return of Nolasco should give us a rotation that can conceivably win 50-60 games 1-4 in the rotation and we would be relying on the 50th starter and bullpen to win 30 - 35 games to get us into the playoffs or at least be a contender. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I am more concerned with getting a 4th starting pitcher capable of winning 12 - 15 games with the ability to pitch 190 - 210 innings.

If the Twins are going after another starting pitcher, they need to aim higher than that. There is little gain and a lot of possible detriment to shoving guys like Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Jose Berrios out of the rotation just to add another Ricky Nolasco clone and finish the season with 82 wins instead of 79.

 

I'd either go big and try to sign a borderline elite pitcher or I'd go for an intriguing arm with issues like Brett Anderson.

[Willihammer]

Hughes seems to have struck the right mix of pitches, swapping the slider, a chase pitch, for a cutter that he can command better and throw in the zone with confidence it won't get blasted like a hanging slider would. Another 11/1 K/BB season probably isn't in the cards but I suspect he's going to keep a strong K/BB ratio around 4 or 5/1.

 

Similar to Lee who started dominating in 2008 after he swapped his 4 seem for a 2 seem fastball.

 

I'd love to see the Twins target another pitcher like that, who they believe has the stuff to succeed (and is healthy) but just needs a tweek in repertoire.

[drock2190]

I remember once upon a time we compared another Twins pitcher who had similiar numbers at the same age as Cliff Lee.

 

 

The pitcher? Kevin Slowey

[zchrz]

Good link thanks, the article mentions Lee adding a sinker as a major factor in his turn around season and I think Hughes adding the cutter is his major pivot points.  It won't get the same gb rate but but its in the same vein as a hard breaking ball that can be throw very accurately.  This sets up the 4 seamer better than a slow curve or medium slider and is much easier to place allowing the extreme control.

 

I love what Phil Hughes did last season and I think it is sustainable, my only worry about him going forward is he has always been known as a tinkerer.  Hopefully he doesn't tinker himself out of success like he has done before. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

It basically points out that Hughes' career through age-28 bears an uncanny resemblance to Lee's career through age-29.

It's a cool article, but I think "uncanny" oversells it.  There are definitely some similarities, mostly by FIP/fWAR and obviously a drop in walk rate.  But even prior to their respective breakouts, Lee had two seasons of better fWAR than Hughes' best as a starter -- Hughes seems to have more of a history of FIP under-performance, suggesting his 2014 FIP under-performance wasn't simply luck.  Hughes' run prevention and rate stats also get a boost from his time in the bullpen -- the difference between them is a bit larger if you leave that out and only compare their time as starters.

 

And in their breakout seasons, Hughes relied on a historically low (and perhaps unsustainable) raw walk rate, while Lee's raw walk rate was good but basically standard Radke.  And as the article mentions, part of Lee's breakout was him becoming a big-time inducer of grounders, which made his run prevention a lot more sustainable too.

 

Nevertheless, I love me some Phil Hughes.  So far a great signing and turnaround -- it was very weird to see a pitching coach dismissed right after it.  I would be thrilled if Hughes can simply match his 2014 performance.

[ashbury]

Baseball-reference.com automates a similarity score based on the idea introduced by Bill James. I clicked on Hughes's age-27 (before Twins) comparison, and was amused to find a fellow named Enrique Carlos Nolasco among his closest matches. 

 

It's just a "fun" number, doesn't mean very much, of course.

[clone52]

I am more concerned with getting a 4th starting pitcher capable of winning 12 - 15 games with the ability to pitch 190 - 210 innings.  That and the return of Nolasco should give us a rotation that can conceivably win 50-60 games 1-4 in the rotation and we would be relying on the 50th starter and bullpen to win 30 - 35 games to get us into the playoffs or at least be a contender. 

 

I think May is going to be the 4th starter you want.

[DocBauer]

There is absolutely no reason to expect Hughes to pitch as he did last season, give or take a few swings in peripherals.

 

There is also no reason NOT to expect Hughes to pitch as he did last season, give or take a few swings in peripherals.

 

The comps to Lee are, at the very least, interesting. But what has me filled ...ok, I'll admit it, "giddy"...with excitement and expectation is not just what Hughes did last season, but who is physically, and his past. Not to sound corny, but his is a big, strong strapping fellow who has always posses velocity and tremendous potential. It's what made him, once upon a time, a top prospect in all of baseball. At one point his was virtually untouchable with the Yankees, and was considered a top of the rotation prospect. Of course, his tenure with the Yanks was filled with great inconsistency. I wouldn't label him a disappointment as he did have seasons and moments where he looked like the pitcher scouts felt he could and should be. It's been well documented that Yankee stadium, and perhaps the limelight of NY, simply didn't fit him.

 

His change if scenery, and new opportunity, with the Twins came at age 28, not old for a strongly built and hard throwing pitcher still developing. Yes, there are talents who just jump to the forefront at an earlier age, but it seems to me that most top of the rotation starts find themselves in the age 25-28 seasons/years as they gain control, gain experience, learn to trust their stuff, and simply learn the nuances of pitching. Lee is a good example. But also consider Scherzer, one of the top two FA prizes on the market. Turning 30, he's been very good for a few years now, but it's the last couple of years where he matured in to a real #1 type pitcher.

[DocBauer]

I think May is going to be the 4th starter you want.

Love the idea and see the potential. And he finished last season actually looking good. But I just don't believe the Twins will go in to 2015 with plans for both May and Meyer to be in the rotation from the start. How big a move they make is, to say the least, debatable. But some move will be made. And that puts May, or Meyer, as the #5 SP initially. Now, 2016, or second half of '15, this could absolutely change.

[Linus]

I remember once upon a time we compared another Twins pitcher who had similiar numbers at the same age as Cliff Lee.

 

 

The pitcher? Kevin Slowey

We? I think you have a mouse in your pocket.

[Linus]

So this is not trolling but why did Rick Anderson not get any credit here? He was credited with refining the pitch selection leading to the very low walk rate. The turnaround is pretty amazing.

[ashbury]

So this is not trolling but why did Rick Anderson not get any credit here? He was credited with refining the pitch selection leading to the very low walk rate. The turnaround is pretty amazing.

Because, you know, Rick Anderson.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So this is not trolling but why did Rick Anderson not get any credit here? He was credited with refining the pitch selection leading to the very low walk rate. The turnaround is pretty amazing.

I think Anderson can/does get some credit, but it's probably a case of too little, too late.  (Although personally I am mostly ambivalent about the manager/coaching changes, I don't think they had much to work with lately.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

So this is not trolling but why did Rick Anderson not get any credit here? He was credited with refining the pitch selection leading to the very low walk rate. The turnaround is pretty amazing.

I think Anderson should get a lot of credit for Hughes.

 

And a lot of opposite credit for most of the other starters over the past five years.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Love the idea and see the potential. And he finished last season actually looking good. But I just don't believe the Twins will go in to 2015 with plans for both May and Meyer to be in the rotation from the start. How big a move they make is, to say the least, debatable. But some move will be made. And that puts May, or Meyer, as the #5 SP initially. Now, 2016, or second half of '15, this could absolutely change.

I think right now, plan A is Millone. Meyer starts in AAA. Millone gets a chance to pitch well enough to be traded for something better than Sam Fuld and Meyer gets called up at the deadline.

[ashbury]

Millone gets a chance to pitch well enough to be traded for something better than Sam Fuld

Bottom fishing is one of Terry Ryan's strengths; take two nickels and turn them into a quarter.  It still disturbs me that much resources are invested in doing this, though.

[laloesch]

If the Twins are going after another starting pitcher, they need to aim higher than that. There is little gain and a lot of possible detriment to shoving guys like Alex Meyer, Trevor May, and Jose Berrios out of the rotation just to add another Ricky Nolasco clone and finish the season with 82 wins instead of 79.

 

I'd either go big and try to sign a borderline elite pitcher or I'd go for an intriguing arm with issues like Brett Anderson.

 

Agreed.  If the Twins sign any starter he needs to have much higher upside than Nolasco and not just another clone.  Ricky is a protypical NL innings eater, mid 4 era, junk ball tosser.  He was a desperation signing.  His numbers last season shouldn't surprise anyone but he should pitch better this season.   

 

Hughes on the other hand was a gamble as well but the ceiling is much higher.  By the way, if he pitches like last season leading up to the all-star break in 2015, the Twin's FO needs to get their rear ends in gear and put together extension paperwork before his price becomes astronomical. 

 

But back on topic.  Unless we are going all in and make a run for Lester I want nothing to do with the next lower tier of starters like McCarthy, Morrow, Capuano, etc.  

 

We have the prospects in May and Meyer who are ready to go and Berrios is a half season away potentially.  There is no reason to clog the rotation with a bunch of expensive mid level free agent starters and block the development of these three.  

 

In my opinion May outpitched Pino, Darnell and Johnson in his final 3 or 4 starts.  A guy with 4 solid offerings like he has is money.  Meyer is also close as well, although his offspeed stuff needs a bit of polish.  Barring more injuries he should be available to start the season as a bullpen arm / spot starter in 2015. 

 

Don't forget about Berrios though.  This kid has rolled through the minors so far ( I don't count his 3 inning start at Rochester against him).  2015 is a huge year for Jose.  If he pitches in Rochester like he did in New Britain, I don't see how the front office can't consider him as a fall call up.  

 

There just isn't a need for another free agent starter at this point considering we have south paw Milone as a stop gap option and Pelfrey (gags) under contract for the season.  

 

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

May

Milone / Meyer