Contention in 2015 - 15 more wins

[stringer bell]

The Twins won 70 games in 2014 and were out of contention by late July.  They did improve their run differential and underperformed their Pythagorean projection by five games.  An improvement of 15 games would give them relevance if not contention.  This year, an 85 game winner (Cleveland) was not eliminated until the final weekend.  The New York Yankees won 84 games with a -31 run differential "only" 31 runs better than the Twins. 

 

Trying to figure out how to improve by 15 games isn't easy.  In the Twins' case, I think most of the improvement has to come from allowing fewer runs, encompassing both defense and pitching.  From a wins standpoint, the bottom half of the rotation should be a source for most of the fifteen wins required for contention.  The Twins got precisely 17 wins from starting pitchers not named Gibson and Hughes.  32 wins from the #3-5 starters added to the same number of bullpen and #1-2 win yields 85 victories.  The 2010 squad got 42 from the likes of Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker. 

 

Another way to look at this is to look at the matchups.  I think it is fair to say that looking at the 14 other AL teams, the Twins dominated no one, with the possible exception of the Mariners (5-2).  One additional win per team plus one interleague win would equal 15.  There is room to improve both inside and outside of the division, especially against the California teams. 

 

From a runs point of view, again, improvement in the bottom of the rotation is essential.  Starters not named Gibson and Hughes yielded 343 earned runs 524.1 innings.  A 4.50 ERA from the bottom three would yield 81 less earned runs allowed which probably equates to 90 less total runs permitted.  With no improvement in the offense, the top two starting pitchers and the bullpen, the Twins would be in a positive run differential by making the improvement noted.

 

Finally, there is defense.  The Twins were rated as one of the worst defensive teams in baseball.  Catching was a net minus, the infield adequate and the outfield somewhere between subpar and dreadful.  I think continuity would help greatly, but also bringing in athletic defenders and playing guys in their proper positions will help.  If the Twins bring in an outfielder from outside the organization, he has to be a good defender.

 

I thought that improving 15 games in one season was next to impossible.  Looking at BB Ref, in the last 10 years 24 of the 30 teams have had a fifteen game improvement in one year.  A couple more have 14 game improvements and the Twins maximum improvement in one years is 13 games.  It can be done. 

[Physics Guy]

This is the main reason I want the Twins to either sign a top three FA or trade for a SP better than Hughes (Gonzalez, Latos, etc.)  Meyer should be ready for the starting rotation next year, but make him earn the spot.  Hold Terry to his word that Nolasco isn't assured of a spot in the rotation just because of his contract.  Why not put Meyer in the bullpen if there isn't room?  Worked well in St. Louis with Wainright, Wacha and Lynn.  A player like Shields/Gonzalez would improve the top 2 (Hughes and Shields/Gonzo vs Hughes and Gibson) and also strengthens the bottom 3 by pushing Gibson down.

 

Shields/Gonzalez

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco/Mays/Meyer

Mays/Meyer

 

Notice I left off Pelfrey.  He needs to, at best, fill Swarzak's role. 

[TheLeviathan]

15 wins is a lot.  However, I do think the Twins can plan on 3-6 wins based on better luck next year.  If that's the case, 9 or 10 wins becomes very possible with full-time seasons from some young guys and an aggressive offseason.

[Physics Guy]

15 wins is a lot.  However, I do think the Twins can plan on 3-6 wins based on better luck next year.  If that's the case, 9 or 10 wins becomes very possible with full-time seasons from some young guys and an aggressive offseason.

I personally will be OK with .500 next year if we continue to develop our young players.  Would 85 wins be nice?  Of couse, but I'm not expecting it.  I want Arcia, Santana, Vargas and Hicks to prove they can be big league regulars.  I want Meyer and Sano to show they belong next year.  I want Buxton to be ready to contribute in 2016 and perhaps get a late season callup.

[gunnarthor]

I think I read that a .500 team is roughly 35 WAR.  Twins were around 25, so they'd have to improve my 10 WAR, keeping in mind some regression by others. Looking at the 2000/2001 Twins, you saw them make significant increases from one year to the next mostly by doing three things:

1) Have breakout seasons by former top 100 prospects (in that case Hunter and Guzman)

2) Have a really strong year from a surprising - i.e. unranked prospect or small FA signing - source (Koskie)

3) Have very little negative value on your team.  3 position players had negative value that year and TK gave them all of 70 AB.  Everyone else was at least 0 WAR or better.

 

So these Twins could certainly fit the bill. They have a lot of top 100 guys who could break out.  They have "surprise" guys in Plouffe and Dozier already.  They got a lot of negative WAR last year from Kubel, Colabello, Morales, Hermann, May, Pelfrey etc. 

[drjim]

15 wins is a lot. However, I do think the Twins can plan on 3-6 wins based on better luck next year. If that's the case, 9 or 10 wins becomes very possible with full-time seasons from some young guys and an aggressive offseason.

This would a reasonable goal in my mind. And I don't even think it would necessarily take a hyper aggressive offseason, just a reasonable starter and of.

 

I think going in with potential .500 talent leaves open the possibility of surprise contention if a few things break right - notably a Mauer rebound and better than expected performance from young guys (less regression).

[Linus]

I think improving by 15 wins is reasonable.

Obviously, starting pitching is the low hanging fruit.  I would expect Hughes to approximately the same number of games.  It is reasonable to think Gibson will get a game or two better and Nolasco, with just a return to typical career numbers will improve by 5 games.  They are almost certain to be several games better in the 4 and 5 spots and could be many games better if they added an above average starter via FA.

 

I also think it is reasonable that we will see, at a minimum, incremental improvement in every position (fielding and at the plate) at every position except catcher.  While it is not likely to think we will get better offensive production from CF our fielding there should get dramatically better.  Mauer is likely to be substantially better than this year as is Arcia.

 

So, there you go.  15 wins - now let's go get that starting pitcher.

[jorgenswest]

I wonder if the combined output between Hughes and Nolasco should be projected to be about the same. Gibson should improve.

 

They really need to invest the other spots in May and Meyer. They might not post much improvement over those they replace next year, but will continue to grow into 2016 and 2017.

 

While 15 wins might be on the edge of possible, I don't think it is likely. The Twins need to build long term and stop wasting 2/3 of the season on decline phase veterans before they realize the team isn't very good.

[stringer bell]

I wonder if the combined output between Hughes and Nolasco should be projected to be about the same. Gibson should improve.

 

They really need to invest the other spots in May and Meyer. They might not post much improvement over those they replace next year, but will continue to grow into 2016 and 2017.

 

While 15 wins might be on the edge of possible, I don't think it is likely. The Twins need to build long term and stop wasting 2/3 of the season on decline phase veterans before they realize the team isn't very good.

What "decline phase veterans"? If the Twins make no moves at all, the over 30s would be Suzuki and Mauer with Nolasco in the starting rotation. Most here are begging for the Twins to go for a top-shelf starter and a decent plus defense outfielder.  Two top five prospects are on the horizon in 2015 plus a number of lesser prospects who'll probably see Target Field at some point.  The three position player rookies who made their debuts were not in the top of the prospect list, two did well, one only had a cup of coffee, but acquitted himself well. I am sure that fandom wouldn't be happy with another Pelfry or Correia-type acquisition. 

[kab21]

The Twins really need to invest one spot between May and Meyer.  If they commit to both of them without adequate plan B in case of injury or MLB struggles then it's another year of the Darnells, Pinos and Albers cycling through the 5th spot.  That's what is killing the Twins right now.

 

Since the Twins have a set option at pretty much every position except 4th/5th starter and LF they should concentrate their offseason at only those two positions and get quality instead of spreading that money between 3-4 players.  The goal should be to return to .500 this year.  A big chunk of that will be through young players and a little due to luck but that doesn't mean that the Twins can't find a 3-4 WAR player to make up some of that difference.

[stringer bell]

I wonder if the combined output between Hughes and Nolasco should be projected to be about the same. Gibson should improve.

 

They really need to invest the other spots in May and Meyer. They might not post much improvement over those they replace next year, but will continue to grow into 2016 and 2017.

I agree with the sentiment of "let the kids play", but we Twins fans have seen enough losing.  There needs to be a Plan B if May and Meyer are not ready.  I guess, as it stands now, that Plan B is Pelfrey and Milone.  I would hope there is someone else added. 

 

To reply to your first comment last, I suppose we need to pencil in some regression for Hughes, but some progression for Nolasco.  Will it be a wash?  The combined numbers for Hughes and Nolasco were 22 wins and 22 losses, 368.2 innings, 424 hits, 54 walks, 301 strikeouts, 4.3 WAR, and 4.32 ERA.   Those numbers divided by two would be a bit worse than I would project, but in the ballpark.  A 4.32 ERA would have ranked 32nd out of 40 qualifiers. 

[Thrylos]

It's doable (esp if you look and see that they should had been 5 games better based on their run diff - aka their Pythagorean record.)

 

Also, at the first half they were 44-50 (which projects to a full season of 76-86, 6 games better than they finished) with the likes of Kubel, Bartlett, Colabello, Morales, Deduno as a starter, Pelfrey & Co.

 

So we are looking at about 10 games more and the wheels not falling off in August and September.  I think that the latter part was a symptom for a team that was not well managed and gave up and I think that the managerial change has the potential to help alleviate that (if it doesn't then they chose the wrong manager.)

 

When I look at things like a projected record, I look at the games they won and lost and their splits.

 

The 2014 Twins had a record of 26-28 against teams <.500 and 44-64 against teams >.500.  Can they win 8 games more against each of those groups of teams?  They should.

 

If anyone thinks that playing shortstops, first basemen, catchers and DHs at the outfield did not hurt the Twins, here is a pretty astonishing set of numbers allowed to us by the new technology that tracks hit balls.   I am just showing the significant departures from league averages:

 

Up the Middle RHB:

Twins: PA against: 1339 Slash line: .336/.330/.498
AL: PA against:  19461 Slash line:  .308/.303/.439

 

Opposite field RHB (i.e hit at the Twins RF):

Twins: PA against: 404 Slash line: .332/.326/.532 
AL: PA against: 6191 Slash line: .279/.274/.408

 

That is a huge difference (from average and not from league best too).  I hope that someone at the Twins looks at that and adjusts accordingly.  If you are a defensive stats minded person, here are plus/minuses (which is actually appropriate for the sample size; devised by B James and indicates runs saved from average) and UZR/150 (which is not appropriate for numerical calculation, but the direction gives a sense of what is going on.)  

 

Santana (CF) plus/minus: -2, UZR/150: -12.2
Mastroianni (OF) plus/minus: -3, UZR/150: -9.2
Hicks (OF)  plus/minus: -6, UZR/150: -8.2
Schafer (OF) plus/minus: -3, UZR/150: 1.2
Herrmann (OF)  plus/minus: -4, UZR/150: -21.9
Kubel (RF)  plus/minus: -7, UZR/150: -29.1
Parmelee (OF)  plus/minus: -7, UZR/150: -7.4
Colabello (RF)  plus/minus: -6, UZR/150: -73.8
Bartlett (OF)  plus/minus: -2, UZR/150: -293.1
Arcia (OF)  plus/minus: -12, UZR/150: -6.9
Willingham (LF)  plus/minus: -5, UZR/150: -6.6

and

Escobar (OF) plus/minus: -1, UZR/150: -27.2
Nunez  (OF) plus/minus: -1, UZR/150: 19.9

 

Adding those plus/minuses is 57.  Which means that the Twins' outfield gave up 57 more runs than an average outfield.  And I really cannot believe that anyone sould use the adjective "solid" to describe any of the above players - maybe with the exception of Schafer - as outfielders.  Some of them are young enough and they can learn and improve, but "solid" they are not.

 

Yes, starting pitching beyond Hughes and Gibson was a problem, but it was not the only problem in opponent scoring. 

[stringer bell]

The Twins really need to invest one spot between May and Meyer.  If they commit to both of them without adequate plan B in case of injury or MLB struggles then it's another year of the Darnells, Pinos and Albers cycling through the 5th spot.  That's what is killing the Twins right now.

 

Since the Twins have a set option at pretty much every position except 4th/5th starter and LF they should concentrate their offseason at only those two positions and get quality instead of spreading that money between 3-4 players.  The goal should be to return to .500 this year.  A big chunk of that will be through young players and a little due to luck but that doesn't mean that the Twins can't find a 3-4 WAR player to make up some of that difference.

For a minute I thought I was reading my own post! Yes, find a nice player or two at a reasonable price. Certainly, have a backup plan for the bottom of the rotation. Yes, the #3-5 spots have killed the team and weakened the bullpen, to boot.

[stringer bell]

I won't quote your whole post Thrylos, but most of the guys you listed were bit players. Defense has to be addressed in the outfield. If the Twins had a league-average outfield (subtract 57 runs), their run differential is down to 5. Barring injury, we are going to see Arcia playing right field, no matter who the manager is.  With work, Arcia can move himself out of the "butcher or dreadful" range and move towards adequate or perhaps average. If the other spots are manned by okay to good fielders, most of those 57 runs can be saved.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The point of the original post I think is to shake us out of the "malaise" of low expectations (h/t Jimmy Carter). Old ways of thinking might be in the past. If we expect 3-6 win improvement, that means it takes us three seasons to get back to .500,.. it's ok to think bigger than that. Like stringer said in the OP, it's not unheard of for a team to suddenly get it together. The big obstacle is that other teams in the ALC could do the same thing, and it looks like KC already has. It's maybe Detroit who is on the way back down.

[Linus]

I'm not worried about making sure we "play the kids" because the lineup is mostly young.  More importantly, the improvement this year in offense makes it possible for us to expect competitive play next year.  Even more optimistically, the addition of just two players (above avg. starter, quality outfielder) will pretty much fill the only glaring needs.

[Kwak]

Run differential can be very misleading--a few blowouts can cover many 1-run games.  I think it was 2013 when Baltimore had an amazing winning percent in 1-run games when compared to their overall winning percent.  Until the Twins demonstrate the ability in the 1-run games they won't be a consistent winning team--or be a "playoff team".

[jorgenswest]

I agree with the sentiment of "let the kids play", but we Twins fans have seen enough losing.  There needs to be a Plan B if May and Meyer are not ready.  I guess, as it stands now, that Plan B is Pelfrey and Milone.  I would hope there is someone else added. 

 

To reply to your first comment last, I suppose we need to pencil in some regression for Hughes, but some progression for Nolasco.  Will it be a wash?  The combined numbers for Hughes and Nolasco were 22 wins and 22 losses, 368.2 innings, 424 hits, 54 walks, 301 strikeouts, 4.3 WAR, and 4.32 ERA.   Those numbers divided by two would be a bit worse than I would project, but in the ballpark.  A 4.32 ERA would have ranked 32nd out of 40 qualifiers.

 

Thanks for doing the work on Nolasco and Hughes.

 

The one thing the Twins haven't really done is go with youth in the last three years. They are constantly signing decline phase veterans and go young later in the year. I am still waiting for them to rebuild. It might take 50 starts for May or Meyer. It might take 1000 plate appearances for a hitter. Let's do that next year.

[ashbury]

The one thing the Twins haven't really done is go with youth in the last three years.

You mean aside from Escobar, Santana, Vargas, Arcia, Hicks and Pinto in the lineup?

 

Names I heard bandied about like Deibinson Romero and James Beresford are not that young anymore anyway.

 

I'm not hugely interested in bringing up 23-year-olds just for the sake of youth, if they have no upside and no confidence from the coaches that they are equipped to succeed.

 

[LaBombo]

 

I thought that improving 15 games in one season was next to impossible.  Looking at BB Ref, in the last 10 years 24 of the 30 teams have had a fifteen game improvement in one year.  A couple more have 14 game improvements and the Twins maximum improvement in one years is 13 games.  It can be done. 

 

In my admittedly limited and probably warped experience, one of the few relatively civilized ways to come across as almost as much of a dink as someone who habitually corrects people and is factually wrong in doing so is to take a whiz on optimism.

 

That being said, 30 teams would have attempted to improve 15 games over the last 10 years 300 times.  24 did.  Maybe a couple did more than once.  That still means that there's probably less than a ten percent chance of getting that done.  Hats off to the frogs that made it across the road, but from a strictly actuarial standpoint...

 

Although I'm not a big fan of either 'Logan's Run'ning the 30+er's off the roster or playing kids barely old enough to shave or drive in the name of rebuilding, my preference in this situation is young player development over optimizing for 85 wins instead of 79.

 

My general impression is that such a philosophy might somehow have cost the 1991 Twins the most famous World Series victory in modern history, but is also much less likely to see the Twins wasting time and money girding their loins against a losing season on the way to competitive relevance.

 

Apologies to any family members of Correia, Butera, and any others who might be emotionally damaged by visualizing their kin being exploited by covering the Twins' naughty bits.

[stringer bell]

Without going back to BB Ref, I believe several teams were able to improve by 15 games or more multiple times, meaning that historically there is better than a one in ten chance to make such an improvement. Not all large jumps are the same, this year's Angels and Marlins both improved substantially (20 and 15 games respectively) but the reasons were totally different--the Angels got relatively healthy and built a bullpen, while the Marlins have added minor league talent for some time and that talent was on display in Florida. There has to be enough talent, but I submit that the Twins have enough talent to improve 15 games.

 

Also, I doubt the Twins would "sell their souls" to compete next year. In the hypothetical of being on the periphery of the race in July/August, I would expect the dramatic move the Twins would make would be promoting young talent, not trading for a good, but declining player.