Nightengale: Twins Interviewing Doug Mientkiewicz Today

[Parker Hageman]

As expected, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Twins are interviewing Ft Myers Miracle manager and former Twin Doug Mientkiewicz for the vacant managerial position today:

 

 

Admittedly, I am a proponent of Mientkiewicz as the next manager for several reasons. As we discussed on the No Juice Podcast recently, here are some reasons for what makes Mientkiewicz an interesting candidate:

 

Prior to Mientkiewicz, Jake Mauer was the manager of the Miracle. In 2011, Mauer’s Miracle attempted 99 stolen bases. In 2012 they tried 96 times. In 2013 when Mientkiewicz took over, they attempted 207 stolen bases and then 174 this season. That’s boot-on-throat type of running in spite of having numerous mashers on the team.

 

In terms of sacrificing, Mientkiewicz’s style is also noticeably different. In 2011, Mauer had his team attempt 51 sac bunts. In 2012, that went to 35. When Mientkiewicz took over in 2013, he reduced that to 32 and then just 21 in 2014.

 

Now Brice Zimmerman -- the voice of the Miracle in the Florida State League and an excellent follow on Twitter @ZimMiracle -- tweeted back at me that Mientkiewicz has his team being very aggressive when it comes to the basepaths -- running and advancing a lot on balls in the dirt and sending runners a lot more to force a play at the plate.

 

 

In Ron Gardenhire’s first year as manager, his team -- which was very similar to the 2001 team that Tom Kelly operated -- not only ran less but was GOD AWFUL when they were moving. They had an MLB-worst 56% stolen base success rate compared to the 72% breakeven rate. Beyond that, Gardenhire always had a fairly aggressive team when it came to moving up bases. 

[Winston Smith]

He would be my choice.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd like either one of those. I do hope they both end up on the ML staff and I also hope they bring in a couple of guys from other teams.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If Mientkiewicz gets the job, will he steal a commemorative baseball from Ryan's desk?

 

We need odds on this.

[Craig Arko]

If Mientkiewicz gets the job, will he steal a commemorative baseball from Ryan's desk?

 

We need odds on this.

Depends on if they win. If they win it all, 100%.

 

Then he gives it to Gardy.

[tobi0040]

If Mientkiewicz gets the job, will he steal a commemorative baseball from Ryan's desk?

 

We need odds on this.

 

Funny.  My preference would be Molitor but whichever is more of a proponent of modern analytics and platooning would swing my meaningless vote.

[Seth Stohs]

Definitely my choice. Molitor would be fine, but he's 18 years older than Mientkiewicz.

 

That said, listen to Mientkiewicz interview with Reusse from Tuesday night. If he doesn't get the Twins job, it definitely sounds like he would be moving up to Chattanooga. But he also said that he is interested in the Twins job too.  Click here to listen to the interview.

[tobi0040]

Definitely my choice. Molitor would be fine, but he's 18 years older than Mientkiewicz.

 

That said, listen to Mientkiewicz interview with Reusse from Tuesday night. If he doesn't get the Twins job, it definitely sounds like he would be moving up to Chattanooga. But he also said that he is interested in the Twins job too.  Click here to listen to the interview.

 

Seth, any idea how those two internal guys view modern analystics, platooning, 3rd catchers, defensive shifting?

 

Like I said, my meaningless vote can be swayed.

[Parker Hageman]

defensive shifting

 

 

Molitor is very much in favor of shifting. He was the person in charge of the team's ailment and used data supplied by the analytics department. 

[daanderson20]

What was the general feeling toward Dougie when he was traded in 2004? If memory serves, there was a bit of "don't let the door hit ya..." when he left. Anyone remember?

[nicksaviking]

 

What was the general feeling toward Dougie when he was traded in 2004? If memory serves, there was a bit of "don't let the door hit ya..." when he left. Anyone remember?

It seemed to me people were just excited to watch Morneau full time. I don't remember any issues other than the fact that the Twins got absolutely fleeced in that three team trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

What was the general feeling toward Dougie when he was traded in 2004? If memory serves, there was a bit of "don't let the door hit ya..." when he left. Anyone remember?

The fan base was more than ready to see him go but that's because the Twins had the consensus #3-4 prospect in all of baseball behind him.

[Linus]

Seth, any idea how those two internal guys view modern analystics, platooning, 3rd catchers, defensive shifting?

 

Like I said, my meaningless vote can be swayed.

Alert, Alert - in the interview Doug admits he isn't much of a sabr guy.  This could sway some opinion on these boards....

[Parker Hageman]

What was the general feeling toward Dougie when he was traded in 2004? If memory serves, there was a bit of "don't let the door hit ya..." when he left.

 

 

I know everyone wanted Morneau up but I died a little inside when Dougie was traded. 

[tobi0040]

Alert, Alert - in the interview Doug admits he isn't much of a sabr guy.  This could sway some opinion on these boards....

 

If true ,I hope he is ruled out.  We had a guy that went off his gut versus odds, math, etc.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

"interview" is probably too strong a word. If Dougie was a serious candidate for the Twins job, he would have flown to Minneapolis for it (my understanding is that Ryan is in Ft. Myers) or maybe Mientkiewicz is traveling up to Minneapolis in the near future.

 

I'm a little warmer on Dougie after listening to the KSTP interview though. He's a "get after it" guy for sure but sounds fairly open minded. I didn't get the sense he was anti- analytics.

[tobi0040]

"interview" is probably too strong a word. If Dougie was a serious candidate for the Twins job, he would have flown to Minneapolis for it (my understanding is that Ryan is in Ft. Myers) or maybe Mientkiewicz is traveling up to Minneapolis in the near future.

 

I'm a little warmer on Dougie after listening to the KSTP interview though. He's a "get after it" guy for sure but sounds fairly open minded. I didn't get the sense he was anti- analytics.

 

I am guessing if you go back to 2002, you will find terms like "get after it" and "no nonsense" for Gardy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If Mientkiewicz gets the job, will he steal a commemorative baseball from Ryan's desk?

 

We need odds on this.

Does TR have any commemorative baseballs worth stealing?  The last out of the 2002 ALDS?  I think that's still clutched by Denny Hocking's severed hand somewhere...

[Steven Buhr]

I'm not sure I'd rely on a stat like stolen base attempts to make a case for Mientkiewicz (who is my preference as a candidate, but barely, over Molitor). While the Mauer teams in FtM didn't run much, they also had some pretty bad offenses, in general. Not getting guys on base and falling behind in games early tends to dampen your stolen bases.

 

Mauer's 2013 CR team attempted 169 stolen bases, just 5 fewer than Mientkeiwicz's 2014 Miracle team, with very much the same offensive players Mauer had the year before.

 

Also, these managers tend to take their direction from the farm director and others in the front office. They get instructions on what approaches they should emphasize.  A new farm director in 2013 may have had as much to do with increased stolen base attempts in Ft Myers as the new manager did.

[big dog]

I remember a quote from the disastrous playoff series against the Angels (also known as The Week Adam Freaking Kennedy Killed The Twins).  Gardy had gone out to the mound to make a pitching change, and there was kind of a disturbance among the group while they were waiting for the reliever to come in from the bullpen.  As we heard later, what happened was Mint disapproved of the choice, and, while standing on the mound, said "Isn't Kyle Lohse still on this team?"  Gardy chose to express some displeasure of his own about who got to choose the reliever and who didn't.

 

Seemed to me like Lohse was the right choice in that situation, too, even before it blew up on us.  I like Mint.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

What was the general feeling toward Dougie when he was traded in 2004? If memory serves, there was a bit of "don't let the door hit ya..." when he left. Anyone remember?

Not from Dougie's side, anyway...

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-120065654.html

[tobi0040]

I'm not sure I'd rely on a stat like stolen base attempts to make a case for Mientkiewicz (who is my preference as a candidate, but barely, over Molitor). While the Mauer teams in FtM didn't run much, they also had some pretty bad offenses, in general. Not getting guys on base and falling behind in games early tends to dampen your stolen bases.

 

Mauer's 2013 CR team attempted 169 stolen bases, just 5 fewer than Mientkeiwicz's 2014 Miracle team, with very much the same offensive players Mauer had the year before.

 

Also, these managers tend to take their direction from the farm director and others in the front office. They get instructions on what approaches they should emphasize.  A new farm director in 2013 may have had as much to do with increased stolen base attempts in Ft Myers as the new manager did.

 

I agree, it is really tough to judge a minor league manager on how he has managed...as he is usually following instructions in a manner that will develop players.

 

Between those two guys, I hope their respective answers to analytic based questions is the deciding factor.  My gut says Molitor was the smarter player and therefore he would be my choice.

[Parker Hageman]

I'm not sure I'd rely on a stat like stolen base attempts to make a case for Mientkiewicz (who is my preference as a candidate, but barely, over Molitor). While the Mauer teams in FtM didn't run much, they also had some pretty bad offenses, in general. Not getting guys on base and falling behind in games early tends to dampen your stolen bases

 

Steve, I know you are a pretty big Mauer apologist having to work with him everyday so I will assume that you have to be pro-Mauer constantly here... 

 

Mientkiewicz had a team that was slightly better at getting on base and was just more aggressive compared to the league average. True, Mauer's teams in Low-A ran more than when he was with the Miracle but that was still lower on the league's SB aggressiveness. This year he had the third-highest on-base % but 13 of the 16 teams attempted more steals.

 

But consider some of the uses of some of the players. Look at the use of Levi Michael. In 2012, Mauer sent him six times. The next year, with Mientkiewicz, he tried 23 times in fewer games. In 2011, Jhon Goncalves tried 10 swipes in 97 games. In 2013 with Mientkiewicz, we was moving 21 times in 84 games. This is cherry-picking, to be sure, but you see how Mientkiewicz may be more of a coach that is going to maximize his run-game. 

 

Overall, your point is valid in terms of straight numbers-based comparisons but based both on the numbers compared to the league and by first-hand reports, Mientkiewicz has been a more aggressive coach on the base paths than Mauer.

 

Also, these managers tend to take their direction from the farm director and others in the front office. They get instructions on what approaches they should emphasize.  A new farm director in 2013 may have had as much to do with increased stolen base attempts in Ft Myers as the new manager did.

 

 

That's possible. 

 

I know there is no singular stat that is going to say if someone is manager material -- especially without knowing the organization's edict -- but I like how he quickly changed to a coach that was very aggressive on the bases (successfully, I might add) while doing away with the bunt. 

[drjim]

 

It seemed to me people were just excited to watch Morneau full time. I don't remember any issues other than the fact that the Twins got absolutely fleeced in that three team trade.

 

How soon you forget that Justin Jones was used to acquire Craig Monroe for the right to overpay him because the Twins screwed up the arbitration paycut rules.

 

It was such an unnecessary trade. If I remember right, a big driving force was Gardy not wanting to deal with sitting someone out of the Stewart/Jones/Morneau/Mientkiewicz group each night.

[tobi0040]

How soon you forget that Justin Jones was used to acquire Craig Monroe for the right to overpay him because the Twins screwed up the arbitration paycut rules.

 

It was such an unnecessary trade. If I remember right, a big driving force was Gardy not wanting to deal with sitting someone out of the Stewart/Jones/Morneau/Mientkiewicz group each night.

 

Gardy having a tough time sitting a veteran.  No way.

[Steven Buhr]

Steve, I know you are a pretty big Mauer apologist having to work with him everyday so I will assume that you have to be pro-Mauer constantly here... 

 

 

Ok then... glad to hear what you really think of me.

 

If it's being an "apologist" to point out that, with essentially the same roster of position players, Mientkiewicz had that group attempt to steal just 5 more bases than Mauer did a year earlier in CR with the same guys, I plead guilty.

 

I'd be pretty excited at this point with either a Mientkiewicz or Molitor hire. I just think the stolen base thing is a reach in terms of using it as a factor to come to a conclusion and certainly when it also could be used to paint Mauer as someone locked in to being passive when it comes to baserunning, because I've seen no evidence of that the past 2 years.

[tobi0040]

Ok then... glad to hear what you really think of me.

 

If it's being an "apologist" to point out that, with essentially the same roster of position players, Mientkiewicz had that group attempt to steal just 5 more bases than Mauer did a year earlier in CR with the same guys, I plead guilty.

 

I'd be pretty excited at this point with either a Mientkiewicz or Molitor hire. I just think the stolen base thing is a reach in terms of using it as a factor to come to a conclusion and certainly when it also could be used to paint Mauer as someone locked in to being passive when it comes to baserunning, because I've seen no evidence of that the past 2 years.

 

I find it ironic that Molitor is the one with the 500 stolen bases.  I know this is Mauer/Dougie conversation....

[Steven Buhr]

I find it ironic that Molitor is the one with the 500 stolen bases.  I know this is Mauer/Dougie conversation....

Molitor takes baserunning very seriously. As part of the interview I did with him last year, one of he most interesting aspects was talking to him about Byron Buxton on that part of his game. I suspect he'd be very aggressive in that area as a manager.

[goliath]

I wonder if whom ever is picked, if they would want the other as a bench coach, or would the dynamics of that not work.

The bigger question is who would be their (Molitor's or Mint's) choice for a Pitching Coach.

[tobi0040]

I wonder if whom ever is picked, if they would want the other as a bench coach, or would the dynamics of that not work.

The bigger question is who would be their (Molitor's or Mint's) choice for a Pitching Coach.

 

The first question is probably simply one of whether or not the person is secure or insecre with their job.  I could also see the Twins preferring Doug as a head coach in the minors if they view him as a coach of the future.