Trevor Plouffe comparable . . . ?

[Shane Wahl]

Rob Deer's 162 game average:

 

633 PA, 544 AB, 120 hits, 21 doubles, 2 triples, 32 homers, 81 BB, 198K, .220/.324/.442

 

Trevor Plouffe's:

 

577 PA, 519 AB, 118 hits, 29 doubles, 1 triple, 23 homers, 45 BB, 127K, .228/.293/.419

 

Once his current pace settles a bit, the above numbers are going to be more in line with what to expect with slightly better average and few walks.

[Ultima Ratio]

PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OB SLG OPS

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable, width: 1]

[TR=class: stat_total hl, bgcolor: #DADCDE]

[TD=align: right]162[/TD]

[TD=align: right]655[/TD]

[TD=align: right]566[/TD]

[TD=align: right]91[/TD]

[TD=align: right]134[/TD]

[TD=align: right]28[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]35[/TD]

[TD=align: right]96[/TD]

[TD=align: right]10[/TD]

[TD=align: right]4[/TD]

[TD=align: right]77[/TD]

[TD=align: right]216[/TD]

[TD=align: right].237[/TD]

[TD=align: right].332[/TD]

[TD=align: right].478[/TD]

[TD=align: right].811[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable, width: 1]

[TR=class: stat_total hl, bgcolor: #DADCDE]

[TD=align: right]162[/TD]

[TD=align: right]577[/TD]

[TD=align: right]519[/TD]

[TD=align: right]84[/TD]

[TD=align: right]118[/TD]

[TD=align: right]29[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]23[/TD]

[TD=align: right]64[/TD]

[TD=align: right]3[/TD]

[TD=align: right]5[/TD]

[TD=align: right]45[/TD]

[TD=align: right]127[/TD]

[TD=align: right].228[/TD]

[TD=align: right].293[/TD]

[TD=align: right].419[/TD]

[TD=align: right].711

 

[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable, width: 1]

[TR=class: stat_total hl, bgcolor: #DADCDE]

[TD=align: right]162[/TD]

[TD=align: right]647[/TD]

[TD=align: right]557[/TD]

[TD=align: right]85[/TD]

[TD=align: right]153[/TD]

[TD=align: right]37[/TD]

[TD=align: right]2[/TD]

[TD=align: right]20[/TD]

[TD=align: right]83[/TD]

[TD=align: right]12[/TD]

[TD=align: right]6[/TD]

[TD=align: right]75[/TD]

[TD=align: right]130[/TD]

[TD=align: right].275[/TD]

[TD=align: right].367[/TD]

[TD=align: right].458[/TD]

[TD=align: right].825[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Mark Reynolds

Trevor Plouffe

Corey Koskie (just to throw in the recent Twins 3B paragon)

 

Analysis: Small sample size to project real 162 numbers, but Plouffe's career 162 projects to mirror the power number of Koskie (HR, RBI, SLG), while only projecting a BA and OB% like Mark Reynolds or Rob Deer. Not so good. Koskie was, well, good.... and we miss his production and defense dearly.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Rob Deer's 162 game average:

 

633 PA, 544 AB, 120 hits, 21 doubles, 2 triples, 32 homers, 81 BB, 198K, .220/.324/.442

 

Trevor Plouffe's:

 

577 PA, 519 AB, 118 hits, 29 doubles, 1 triple, 23 homers, 45 BB, 127K, .228/.293/.419

 

Once his current pace settles a bit, the above numbers are going to be more in line with what to expect with slightly better average and few walks.

Rob Deer was a walk machine, averaging about .100 points higher OBP than AVG. That helped offset his atrocious BA and turned him from being below average to being slightly above average as a hitter.

 

Do you honestly expect Plouffe to do that? Trevor's OBP was roughly .060 points higher than his BA in the minors and it's a lot easier to draw a walk down there than it is in the majors.

 

Besides, using straight avg/2b/hr stat lines on guys who played 30 years apart is nearly useless. You should be looking more at adjusted lines than straight stats.

[StormJH1]

I watched Rob Deer growing up in Detroit. I just looked it up, and Deer hit .217 in Double-A and .227 in Triple-A in the two seasons before his callup. In other words, he was always that type of hitter. There were points in those seasons I remember he had more HR's than singles!

 

Plouffe was in Triple-A from 2008-11 and while his BA wasn't good (.262), neither were his strikeout rates so absurdly bad that he should be compared to guys like Deer, Reynolds, or Chris Davis. Plouffe also doesn't have the raw power of those guys. But I think he has bulked up, and the guy who mentioned Joe Crede above (Crede from the mid-2000's, not the year we had him) was dead on. Crede also did not strike out at an absurdly high rate. But I would absolutely take that type of hitter, given how little hope we had for Plouffe coming into the year.

[Boom Boom]

Michael Cuddyer, but with more power and more defensive value.

 

That is to say, I think Plouffe will put up a better BA and OBP than many are giving him credit for.

[DaveW]

Trevor plouffes best comp is that of brian buscher and brendan harris, he is like the best of both worlds.

[DaveW]

If Plouffe had a chance to stick at SS he'd be playing there for the Twins right now. NO way does a team look at his body of work and think, yeah... that's a guy I want to man the most defensively taxing position (besides catcher) for my playoff run. If someone wants him as a bench bat... or to fill a gaping hole in the outfield or 3rd base, they'll consider him...

 

I like Plouffe, but he's no short stop.

 

Also, he has more value as a player to hold onto than a player to move right now.

Yup, trading up and coming players with less than one year service time is typically not a good way to rebuild.

[snepp]

Trevor plouffes best comp is that of brian buscher and brendan harris, he is like the best of both worlds.

That's Harrischer to you.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Trevor plouffes best comp is that of brian buscher and brendan harris, he is like the best of both worlds.

If only Trevor could emulate the thoughtful - nay, gallant - 1,000 yard stare of one Mr. Brian James Buchanan.

 

 

Every time I see a picture of Buchanan, I expect the picture to yell "HODOR!" back at me.

 

Bonus points if Trevor could also run routes like Jason Tyner.

[PopRiveter]

I've been thinking Rob Deer for awhile now. I thought I was the only one.

[Knotholemike]

Has anyone seen or can anyone provide an assessment of Plouffe's defense at 3B? How is his range and where does he rank along side other 3rd basemen?

[Nick Nelson]

Has anyone seen or can anyone provide an assessment of Plouffe's defense at 3B? How is his range and where does he rank along side other 3rd basemen?

I think he's been pretty solid. Still occasionally has erratic bouts with the arm, but those have diminished greatly over time which has me convinced they were largely the result of yips. He shows a good feel for the position and has made some nice barehanded plays on bunts. Not a top-tier defender by any means, but he's got all the tools to handle the hot corner, as you'd expect from a converted shortstop.

[Bark's Lounge]

I think he's been pretty solid. Still occasionally has erratic bouts with the arm, but those have diminished greatly over time which has me convinced they were largely the result of yips. He shows a good feel for the position and has made some nice barehanded plays on bunts. Not a top-tier defender by any means, but he's got all the tools to handle the hot corner, as you'd expect from a converted shortstop.

He has been super solid at 3B. Let us not Forget Corey Koskie. He was an atrocious 3B at first, but turned himself into an above average defender at 3B. Plouffe may not be a perennial .300 hitter, he will bring the punch to the party. Mark my words on this.

[shs_59]

This may be a bit optimistic but i think Plouffe is a Right Handed Ben Zobrist for a comparable.

 

Zobrist if you think about it, has essentially been one of the 3 or 4 most consistent Offensive Contributors on the Rays team over the last few seasons, and the Rays being SUPER succesfull.

 

 

 

At this point, I feel like the Twins should gamble a bit and Choose: Mauer, Span, Revere, Plouffe, and hopefully 1 of Parmelee, Morneau to build around.....Along with Diamond, Hendriks, Baker, Gibson, Waldrop, Guerra, Duensing, Burnett.

 

And EVERYTHING else should be prospects and the Twins should be to the point, (between this July, August trade deadlines and The Off-Season) of Having a DEEP AAA and AA Team along with solid A Ball squads.... The Twins should want to have the feeling like they could use another farm team. IMO ...and soon.

[glunn]

He has been super solid at 3B. Let us not Forget Corey Koskie. He was an atrocious 3B at first' date=' but turned himself into an above average defender at 3B. Plouffe may not be a perennial .300 hitter, he will bring the punch to the party. Mark my words on this.[/quote']

 

Plouffe may be a late bloomer. Maybe this month's performance is a fluke. But if Plouffe can sustain this and improve his approach to hitting righties, I think that he could greatly surpass Koskie (whose career was tragically cut short by the concussions). The way that Plouffe has hit during June suggests at least a theoretical possibility of 30-40 homers per year.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I think you have to ride Trevor "Babe" Plouffe (say it out loud, its fun--trust me) as long as you can, as he certainly seems on his way to becoming a potential middle of the order guy. While his UZR/150 is still -6.8, I would expect that to go up as he continues to learn third. The other things that's worth mentioning is that his average is now at .252 DESPITE a .234 BABIP (although thinking about that, that doesn't make any sense. Yet both fangraphs and baseball-reference have that as his BABIP. Hmm), which suggests that average will continue to go up.

 

That being said, at what point do you try and sign Babe Plouffe to a longer-term contract (say 5 years, 30mil)? He's not arbitration-eligible until 2014, and can't be a free agent until 2018, so he feels like a nice centerpiece to potentially build around.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The other things that's worth mentioning is that his average is now at .252 DESPITE a .234 BABIP (although thinking about that' date=' that doesn't make any sense. Yet both fangraphs and baseball-reference have that as his BABIP. Hmm), which suggests that average will continue to go up.[/quote']

 

It's easy to have a BABIP lower than BA. BABIP is just that, Batting Average Balls In Play. Homers are never "in play". Strikeouts are never "in play" but they count against BA. For something to count for BABIP, it needs to be "in play".

[snepp]

It's easy to have a BABIP lower than BA. BABIP is just that, Batting Average Balls In Play. Homers are never "in play". Strikeouts are never "in play" but they count against BA. For something to count for BABIP, it needs to be "in play".

What he said. ^^^^

[Cap'n Piranha]

It's easy to have a BABIP lower than BA. BABIP is just that, Batting Average Balls In Play. Homers are never "in play". Strikeouts are never "in play" but they count against BA. For something to count for BABIP, it needs to be "in play".

Gotcha, no more morning posting for me.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Gotcha' date=' no more morning posting for me.[/quote']

 

Heh, I think it's a pretty common "logical leap" to make. I remember going cross-eyed the first time I saw a BABIP lower than BA.

[Badsmerf]

That being said, at what point do you try and sign Babe Plouffe to a longer-term contract (say 5 years, 30mil)? He's not arbitration-eligible until 2014, and can't be a free agent until 2018, so he feels like a nice centerpiece to potentially build around.

Plouffe has so much to prove yet that this is simply ridiculous. The Twins can't bank on Plouffe producing like this from now on. He has to sustain it for the rest of the season and into next season before the Twins can officially say this is our guy. I'm a pretty big Plouffe supporter, but he has a long way to go to be a player to build around.

[hawkiconk]

his agent probably has him thinking 5 yrs/ 60M

[Cap'n Piranha]

Plouffe has so much to prove yet that this is simply ridiculous. The Twins can't bank on Plouffe producing like this from now on. He has to sustain it for the rest of the season and into next season before the Twins can officially say this is our guy. I'm a pretty big Plouffe supporter, but he has a long way to go to be a player to build around.

If you'll notice, I asked when you try to sign an extension. I never advocated for the Twins to extend him right now. I merely think a guy who can hit .260-.270 with 25-30 homers while playing an acceptable 3rd base is a guy you try to keep around (fangraphs at this point projects him to hit .248 with 25 homers, and post a 2.5 WAR). While I wouldn't pay 12m per, I think up to 5 years and 35m is reasonable. From Babe Plouffe's standpoint, he goes from making less than 500k this year and next, to making 4-5 million at least next year. There are worse things in this world than knowing you'll get paid 30-35 million dollars no matter what happens to you, even if you're leaving some potential earnings on the table.

[Jeff P]

Wild how quickly perspectives change on someone. He is playing really well, but I think they need to wait until after next year before looking into a long term deal. I don't think there is any way to know how good of a player he will settle out at right now or even after this season.

 

The thing is, the first couple of years of arbitration are cheap anyway, so assuming he has a solid but not incredible season next year, I think they could still get him at a reasonable rate, well below 7M a season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wild how quickly perspectives change on someone. He is playing really well, but I think they need to wait until after next year before looking into a long term deal.

Plouffe has virtually no service time. There's no reason to even think about signing him to a deal until after the 2014 season, if he's even around at that point.

[glunn]

"Babe" would be one of the greatest nicknames ever, IF he can live up to it.

 

I am a Plouffetist, but agree with those who feel that the Twins should wait a while and see how he performs.

[Bark's Lounge]

Strictly from on the field. Plouffe is surging and has been the point of pleasantries and interest the last 3 weeks. Very bad seasons by a team do not come without a reward sometimes. This being said, every baseball player has their struggles a few times during the season and Plouffe will indeed have his again. In my heart of hearts I feel strongly that Plouffe will be a solid MLB player+. Let us see this season play out and reserve our judgement until October - Plouffe's book is not yet finished. My gut tells me we have a .250 - .280 BA, 25-30HR's and a 100RBI, decent fielding 3B on our hands. These kind of players are not easy to come by. Being a Plouffetist, my judgement might be viewed as askew, but being at my utmost Plouffetist Center, I understand the nay saying, I understand the skepticism. I simply believe that Trevor Plouffe will prove the Anti-Plouffes wrong.

[Badsmerf]

Strictly from on the field. Plouffe is surging and has been the point of pleasantries and interest the last 3 weeks. Very bad seasons by a team do not come without a reward sometimes. This being said' date=' every baseball player has their struggles a few times during the season and Plouffe will indeed have his again. In my heart of hearts I feel strongly that Plouffe will be a solid MLB player+. Let us see this season play out and reserve our judgement until October - Plouffe's book is not yet finished. My gut tells me we have a .250 - .280 BA, 25-30HR's and a 100RBI, decent fielding 3B on our hands. These kind of players are not easy to come by. Being a Plouffetist, my judgement might be viewed as askew, but being at my utmost Plouffetist Center, I understand the nay saying, I understand the skepticism. I simply believe that Trevor Plouffe will prove the Anti-Plouffes wrong.[/quote']

 

What about Plouffe tells you he will do that? His last 75 AB's? I'm a plouffe supporter too, but you can't be serious.

[Bark's Lounge]

What about Plouffe tells you he will do that? His last 75 AB's? I'm a plouffe supporter too, but you can't be serious.

There was nothing definite with the thread response I threw out there. I am dead serious. There will be no metrics or analysis. I am a Plouffetist and I have a good feeling about Plouffe - over and out, enough said.

[PseudoSABR]

Until we see more from Plouffe he doesn't really have a comp. He's taken some walks and give-me hits lately, so maybe he really can counter the leagues adjustments. I still can't see anything more than Rob Deer playing an erratic third base and walking a bit less--but that's been than the Twins have had since Koskie.