Article: Alex Meyer's Time Is Almost Here

[Parker Hageman]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/3280-Alex-Meyer-s-Time-Has-Almost-Arrived

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Great demonstration!

 

Yeah, with Gibson and Hughes both banged up but still wanting to make their next starts, there's no good reason not to reshuffle the rotation a little and get either May or Meyer up here to pitch the KC series Tuesday.

[tobi0040]

Let's go back to April first.

 

If someone were to say:

 

-Pelfrey will be out of the rotation in a month.

 

-Nolasco may be done for the year in mid July, or at least miss a ton of time.

 

-Deduno will be innefective this year

 

-Gibson will miss some time.

 

-Twins will be 27th in team ERA

 

-Meyer will have a 3.11 ERA, 10+ K per 9, 7.4 H per 9, and have 100 IP.

 

I would have been shocked and dissapointed to know that all of those 100 IP were in AAA.

[DaveW]

Great demonstration!

 

Yeah, with Gibson and Hughes both banged up but still wanting to make their next starts, there's no good reason not to reshuffle the rotation a little and get either May or Meyer up here to pitch the KC series Tuesday.

July 31st is only six days away.

[gunnarthor]

Let's go back to April first.

 

If someone were to say:

 

-Pelfrey will be out of the rotation in a month.

 

-Nolasco may be done for the year in mid July, or at least miss a ton of time.

 

-Deduno will be innefective this year

 

-Gibson will miss some time.

 

-Twins will be 27th in team ERA

 

-Meyer will have a 3.11 ERA, 10+ K per 9, 7.4 H per 9, and have 100 IP.

 

I would have been shocked and dissapointed to know that all of those 100 IP were in AAA.

Yeah, I agree. I know Meyer did hit a rough patch for a bit but it's time to bring him up. Give him a few starts at the ML level now, like Gibson last year. And bring May up too.

[Boom Boom]

With how protective the Twins have been in monitoring Meyer's pitch counts, I think he'll be up later this season, but only in a relief role.

[tobi0040]

With how protective the Twins have been in monitoring Meyer's pitch counts, I think he'll be up later this season, but only in a relief role.

 

I am guessing we don't want to mess with his process. I think they bring him up for 6-8 starts or whatever it takes to hit the number, then shut him down.

[nicksaviking]

Great article, but I have to take issue with one thing. No way Canada's airforce is capable of stopping a baseball, aircraft, missle or waterfowl. The only way they would stop it is if the baseball had a DUI and then tried to get into the country through customs.

[Parker Hageman]

No way Canada's airforce is capable of stopping a baseball, aircraft, missle or waterfowl. The only way they would stop it is if the baseball had a DUI and then tried to get into the country through customs.

 

I was picturing them throwing empty Molsons' bottles at it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, I agree. I know Meyer did hit a rough patch for a bit but it's time to bring him up. Give him a few starts at the ML level now, like Gibson last year. And bring May up too.

 

Agreed, although I will note that Meyer's "rough patch" has been overblown. Due to his pitch limit, he has prematurely been removed from almost every one of his starts since early May.

 

This means, for his poorer starts, we either get the full result (where a normal pitcher would be prematurely removed anyway due to conditions/performance), or he is denied a chance to recover from a rough inning early (witness his 3 start stretch where he failed to complete 4 IP each time, despite only allowing 7 runs combined in all 3 starts).

 

And, for his better starts, they are truncated from their full result -- it is difficult for even the best pitchers to go past 6 innings on fewer than 80-85 pitches.

[Mike Sixel]

So, how is it less stressful on the arm to pitch in Rochester? If they want to limit his pitches, and still see how he is up here, how does leaving him down help with that?

[tobi0040]

So, how is it less stressful on the arm to pitch in Rochester? If they want to limit his pitches, and still see how he is up here, how does leaving him down help with that?

 

That is just it. I subcribe to the only so many bullets in the gun theory and most pitchers take 50-100 IP to adjust to MLB hitters. So the quicker he is up the better, he can get the adjustment period out of the way and start helping this team.

 

I think the Twins already have some explaining to do, but with Nolasco on the shelf, Gibson missing a start, Hughes potentially hurt, and KC likely gone in 6 days.....

[twinsnorth49]

Great article, but I have to take issue with one thing. No way Canada's airforce is capable of stopping a baseball, aircraft, missle or waterfowl. The only way they would stop it is if the baseball had a DUI and then tried to get into the country through customs.

 

Real funny......go ahead, try us.

 

 

I was picturing them throwing empty Molsons' bottles at it.

 

Pffft, Molson's, that stuff is for the tourists, I'd be throwing full ones.

[Seth Stohs]

As I've written, Meyer had those 3-5 really poor, short starts, but now he's come back with 5 straight "Quality Starts." I think he's made some adjustments (although he's still walking some), and I think that it's time now.

 

Trevor May would be up too if not for his calf injury, and then his pre-All Star game return start was rained out, then he went three innings and then last night as only able to go three (hitless) because of rain again. He'll be up soon too.

 

I personally expect Meyer to struggle in his initial time here int he big leagues. That walk rate is just not good, and MLB hitters tend to be even more selective. It'll be interesting. But, Randy Johnson walked a bunch in his first few years in the big leagues too!

[Seth Stohs]

Parker - how worried are you (or should we be) about his wild delivery (personal opinion)?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If not now, when?

[gunnarthor]

Agreed, although I will note that Meyer's "rough patch" has been overblown. Due to his pitch limit, he has prematurely been removed from almost every one of his starts since early May.

 

This means, for his poorer starts, we either get the full result (where a normal pitcher would be prematurely removed anyway due to conditions/performance), or he is denied a chance to recover from a rough inning early (witness his 3 start stretch where he failed to complete 4 IP each time, despite only allowing 7 runs combined in all 3 starts).

Yes and no. In his three previous starts, he went 6 innings each game and walked 4 in each game. That's a bit of a problem. But I agree that it was generally overblown.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Couple of things about Meyer. He isn't on the 40 man, so in terms of being smart with options, he isn't coming up until he's up for good for the year. That means a full time spot has to be open for him, and he's going to need to have room the pen to transition once his total innings have been hit. Otherwise the team unnecessarily burns an option on him. Second, as Seth mentioned, he hasn't been lights out all year. He was good, had a pretty bad rough patch, and seems have adjusted.

 

I'm with the others in that I think May was supposed to have gotten the call, and had he not been hurt, he would have. I still think he should be ahead of Meyer and Meyer comes up in September. If Nolasco (or Hughes) is going to be out through August, I think Meyer heads North. May (once he's gone a 6/7 inning start), will likely come up to fill the current 5 spot. Come September, Darnell, Johnson, or Pino will take Meyer's place.

[Winston Smith]

Bring him up and replace Deduno. He does some long relief and a spot start or two. That limits his innings and gets him some major league experience.

[beckmt]

We need to get May and Meyer up here now. This is an evaluation period and I understand the Twins may not want to put Meyer on the 40 man until September, but there is no reason May should not be here now. You could even put him in the bullpen for a week or two to get accustomed to major league hitters.

[Boone]

Let's go back to April first.

 

If someone were to say:

 

-Pelfrey will be out of the rotation in a month.

 

-Nolasco may be done for the year in mid July, or at least miss a ton of time.

 

-Deduno will be innefective this year

 

-Gibson will miss some time.

 

-Twins will be 27th in team ERA

 

-Meyer will have a 3.11 ERA, 10+ K per 9, 7.4 H per 9, and have 100 IP.

 

I would have been shocked and dissapointed to know that all of those 100 IP were in AAA.

 

I think you're forgetting Meyer's career high walk rate (4.17 BB/9, 10.9% of plate appearances) and career low GB/AO ratio (1.20).

[Boone]

Tremendous analysis, much better than I could have done. However, anecdotal evidence such as this (looking at two, hand-picked plate appearances out of 430 this year) does not prove that Meyer is ready for the majors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As I've written, Meyer had those 3-5 really poor, short starts, but now he's come back with 5 straight "Quality Starts." I think he's made some adjustments (although he's still walking some), and I think that it's time now.

 

He only had 3 "short" starts, one of which he was pulled after 55 pitches, the other two 70-some. Still only allowed 7 runs in 9 IP over those three, meaning quality-wise, they were far from disasters (roughly 5 IP, 4 R type starts for a pitcher without a pitch limit). And they were bookended by 6 IP, 3-4 H, 0-1 R, 1 BB starts (stopped at 80 pitches, of course). Sounds more like the ups-and-downs of any performer, not something that had to be overcome or adjusted for.

 

Trevor May would be up too if not for his calf injury, and then his pre-All Star game return start was rained out, then he went three innings and then last night as only able to go three (hitless) because of rain again. He'll be up soon too.

 

Why do you always omit that May's calf injury only landed him on the DL AFTER the Twins committed him to the Futures Game (and virtually another month in AAA)? I guess if healthy he could have replaced Pino after the all-star break, but I'm not sure anything had really changed at that point from mid-June when Pino supposedly deserved it more.

 

I personally expect Meyer to struggle in his initial time here int he big leagues.

 

Here we agree! I have no expectations that Meyer and May WON'T struggle in MLB this season. But I want to see them struggle, know the nature of their struggles, and have an idea of how they can adjust before we hit the offseason and the FA market (not to mention how many backup SP we need to keep on the 40-man roster).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yes and no. In his three previous starts, he went 6 innings each game and walked 4 in each game. That's a bit of a problem. But I agree that it was generally overblown.

 

Even 4 BB in 6 IP isn't that bad when you're also limiting your opponents to 3-4 hits (and it's not just a BABIP fluke with a 10.5 K/9).

[DaveW]

If not now, when?

 

July 31st, as has been the plan for several months now.

[tobi0040]

I think you're forgetting Meyer's career high walk rate (4.17 BB/9, 10.9% of plate appearances) and career low GB/AO ratio (1.20).

 

 

I don't mean to gloss over the BB rate. But with Meyer and to a similar extent May, I think we can stress about these things a little less. The difference between a walk rate being talked about and not a concern, IMO is 4+ per 9 and 3.5 per 9. So Meyer has walked 4.2 per 9 this year, which is about one additional batter every other start.

 

Given these numbers below, I think that that additional runner every other game is less of an issue:

 

Meyer K's 27% of his batters. .227 BA against .71 HR/9

 

May K's 25% of his batters .206 BA against .42 HR/9

 

These guys have the stuff to get them out of jams. They don't give up many hits, keep the ball in the park, and can strike guys out.

[tobi0040]

July 31st, as has been the plan for several months now.

 

If true, I am guessing the logic is they want him up for good, so they would wait for KC to be traded and give that spot to Meyer. Let's hope they use Hughes injury to slot Meyer in on 7/30, then take KC's spot in the rotation when Hughes comes back.

[jokin]

Tremendous analysis, much better than I could have done. However, anecdotal evidence such as this (looking at two, hand-picked plate appearances out of 430 this year) does not prove that Meyer is ready for the majors.

 

How about another expert? As in, Will Middlebrooks' analysis? In the postgame aftermath in which he struck out three consecutive times vs. Meyer, Middlebrooks said:

 

"I asked a coach,

 

'Who'd he make mad? Why is he still here? Are there five guys really better than him in Minnesota?'"

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think you're forgetting Meyer's career high walk rate (4.17 BB/9, 10.9% of plate appearances) and career low GB/AO ratio (1.20).

 

Meyer's career-low GB/AO rate is twice that of Pino in his supposed breakthrough performance.

[DaveW]

If true, I am guessing the logic is they want him up for good, so they would wait for KC to be traded and give that spot to Meyer. Let's hope they use Hughes injury to slot Meyer in on 7/30, then take KC's spot in the rotation when Hughes comes back.

 

It's a Super 2 issue as well, and yes I know the old "Twins being cheap" meme card will prob get played by someone, however it is prudent for them to wait these extra couple weeks to promote him, they could end up potentially saving 10-15 mil in arbitration in the future (money that could be used for other players)

 

Now, if the Twins were 3 games back of the Tigers at this point, then I might be a little upset they are giving starts to Johnson etc instead of Meyer, however the Twins are pretty much done at this point and 2 extra starts in the majors instead of AAA for Meyer isn't going to affect how he does in the future very much at all, as Seth mentioned he still has some things to work on regardless, and when he is up July 31st he will still get several starts to "gain his experience"