Article: Trade Candidate: Kurt Suzuki

nicksaviking · July 21, 2014

Interesting. If that article is accurate - and there's no reason to believe it isn't - then it sounds like trading Suzuki is the prudent move. If he won't sign a reasonable extension before the season ends, there's absolutely no reason not to trade him in the next ten days.

And how better to prepare the fans who will be upset about a trade, than to have something like this leak. Good news in my book as a trade looks very likely. The Twins are going to have so much money to blow next offseason that if they really want him back for his unevitable slide, they can easily overpay him.

As to the buy/low sell high issue, Ryan has done well in the offseasons with Span and Revere. I think those that are frustrated (me included) take issue with not getter better return for deadline deals.

However, somehow the Twins have been in the terrible position of being awful, with hardly anything of value to sell at the deadline. Willingham in 2012 and Perkins last year were about it and neither were rental players. Liriano, Young, Doumit and Morneau all struggled come deadline time. Many of us wanted the Twins to move them the prior offseasons when they had value, but who knows if teams were even interested.

Linus · July 21, 2014

Let the dealing begin - I wanted him back but if it isn't going to happen then we have to get something for him. The other bright side is that Pinto can come up and catch nearly everyday and we can see what we have.

I feel the same way about Morales - we need a DH for the next year or two and if he will sign a reasonable extension, fine. Otherwise, maybe you can catch the same plane as Kurt.

Now to deal Corriea and Willingham (and Burton and Guerrier). Just writing this gives me that satisfying feeling I get when I clean out my garage and get everything organized.

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2014

As to the buy/low sell high issue, Ryan has done well in the offseasons with Span and Revere. I think those that are frustrated (me included) take issue with not getter better return for deadline deals.

However, somehow the Twins have been in the terrible position of being awful, with hardly anything of value to sell at the deadline. Willingham in 2012 and Perkins last year were about it and neither were rental players. Liriano, Young, Doumit and Morneau all struggled come deadline time. Many of us wanted the Twins to move them the prior offseasons when they had value, but who knows if teams were even interested.

Yep. I've also been frustrated with past deadlines but the phrase "it takes two to tango" seems like the most likely cause for the lack of movement. Ryan won't give players away and I commend him for that trait. The downside is that it means you aren't going to see as much trade action as you'd like to see. Personally, I'll take the higher return on less trades than stuffing the MiLB system with backfill players.

If you can't get more than a AAAA player in the high minors for Willingham, does it make sense to move him? Given the Twins' farm system virtually bursting at the seams with good players - much less marginal ones - I'm not so sure those kinds of moves make sense.

(Willingham is merely an example; in no way am I advocating that the Twins retain Willingham)

diehardtwinsfan · July 21, 2014

I suspect Hammer will be an August move personally... But yeah, I dont think I'd trade him for an AAAA guy. I'd want some upside, even if it's a high risk rookie baller.

Winston Smith · July 21, 2014

Sometimes AAAA guys turn out to be good players and top prospects turn out to be duds.

Anybody think Ortiz was a top prospect? Turned out to be a very good player only not here.

We know at the end of the season Willy is gone so get something for him. Any luck he turns into a great DH for another team. (That was snarky, sorry).

Dman · July 21, 2014

Yep. I've also been frustrated with past deadlines but the phrase "it takes two to tango" seems like the most likely cause for the lack of movement. Ryan won't give players away and I commend him for that trait. The downside is that it means you aren't going to see as much trade action as you'd like to see. Personally, I'll take the higher return on less trades than stuffing the MiLB system with backfill players.

If you can't get more than a AAAA player in the high minors for Willingham, does it make sense to move him? Given the Twins' farm system virtually bursting at the seams with good players - much less marginal ones - I'm not so sure those kinds of moves make sense.

(Willingham is merely an example; in no way am I advocating that the Twins retain Willingham)

I agree with you and after looking at several teams top 20 excluding the top 5, I don't see a ton of guys that are that much better than a lot of the guy we already have. I think we match up best with the Cardinals but hard to say how bad they want a catcher as they seem more interested in pitching help. For some of our guys I think you would need to get guys from other teams at lower levels with high upside as there isn't a ton of room in our system.

I think several people feel addition by subtraction is better than holding onto guys versus getting value this year. Several people just want to see the young guys play so keeping guys that are done the end of this year makes little sense. If there is a year to dump what you can I think this is the year.

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2014

Sometimes AAAA guys turn out to be good players and top prospects turn out to be duds.

Anybody think Ortiz was a top prospect? Turned out to be a very good player only not here.

Ortiz was pretty highly regarded as a prospect, he simply couldn't stay healthy in Minnesota.

AAAA guys sometimes turn out to be good players, yes... But the overwhelming majority of the time, they cause roster logjams as they run out of options (forcing themselves onto the 40 man) and clog the high minors.

I'm not saying Ryan should outright reject any player who isn't a lock to become a quality MLB player, I'm simply pointing out that "making a trade for a trade's sake" isn't necessarily a good plan, particularly in an organization that already has a glut of AAAA - and much better than AAAA - players, as it forces a lot of tough decisions that might slow down the progress of your real prospects as you clamor to keep guys on the 40 man who were acquired via trade in the last 12 months.

jorgenswest · July 21, 2014

And how better to prepare the fans who will be upset about a trade, than to have something like this leak.

I was wondering about that too. It really isn't wise to leak this information. Wouldn't it also tell other teams that the Twins are motivated to trade since extension talks have gone cold? It seems like they would be in a better position to trade if they leaked that they were having extension discussions.

PR decisions need to take a back seat to baseball decisions. They can lie to me all they want as long as the team gets better.

TKGuy · July 21, 2014

Like Denard Span and Ben Revere?

I understand the Ryan doesn't move players when some people want him to move them (never mind that peoples' notion of "sell high" is often unreasonable) but let's not pretend that he doesn't move some players at precisely the right time. Span's value collapsed almost immediately after the trade and Revere wasn't far behind him.

Exactly, all those people clamor in for May and Meyer forget how they got to the Twins.

Dman · July 21, 2014

I was wondering about that too. It really isn't wise to leak this information. Wouldn't it also tell other teams that the Twins are motivated to trade since extension talks have gone cold? It seems like they would be in a better position to trade if they leaked that they were having extension discussions.

PR decisions need to take a back seat to baseball decisions. They can lie to me all they want as long as the team gets better.

Maybe I think about this stuff the wrong way but I don't think knowing the Twins aren't going to be able to extend Suzuki reduces their leverage. Maybe if only one team is interested in acquiring him it might reduce their leverage otherwise you have to believe you are bidding against other teams for his services.

It really comes down to how other teams value Suzuki. Do they value him enough to give up a solid B level prospect? That is a lot to give up for a two month rental. B levels don't grow on tree's. There appear to be teams who could use a catcher that can hit. Baltimore, St. Louis, LA and even Toronto could use more offense from the catcher position.

Might as well make it known that the bidding starts now and the best package will net them Suzuki. If nothing substantial gets offered then I guess we just see if there is interest later in the season and move him through waivers or keep him until the end of the season and hope he likes us enough to resign with the team. In my mind the leverage is still there but if teams want him they need to give up something decent.

Monkeypaws · July 22, 2014

Saw this article:

http://www.examiner.com/article/cardinal-trade-target-kurt-suzuki

They postulate Suzuki could be had for a middling prospect; Mike O'Neill in this case, a 5'9" outfielder with no speed or power.

Makes trading him harder if that's all they could hope to get.

jorgenswest · July 22, 2014

If Suzuki has decided to test the market, I don't think keeping him will make it more likely he will sign with the Twins. He will be looking for the best possible possible offer in likely his last good contract. The Twins can be the team that makes that offer whether he is traded or not.

Moving him now for the best the market has to offer is the best long term move. If the best they can get is a Mike O'Neill who was recently DFA'd then the market for him in the winter won't be that competitive either.

Dman · July 22, 2014

Saw this article:

http://www.examiner.com/article/cardinal-trade-target-kurt-suzuki

They postulate Suzuki could be had for a middling prospect; Mike O'Neill in this case, a 5'9" outfielder with no speed or power.

Makes trading him harder if that's all they could hope to get.

I think that guy might be on crack. Suzuki is hitting .300 for the season, doesn't strike out much and is a tough out. He equates his value to a backup catcher?. Wow I haven't seen many backup catchers hitting .300 through the season. In fact Molina isn't hitting .300 this season. Good luck with that offer.

JB_Iowa · July 22, 2014

Saw this article:

http://www.examiner.com/article/cardinal-trade-target-kurt-suzuki

They postulate Suzuki could be had for a middling prospect; Mike O'Neill in this case, a 5'9" outfielder with no speed or power.

Makes trading him harder if that's all they could hope to get.

I find this to be a lazy, curious way to analyze the cost of acquiring Sukuki:

Since Suzuki doesn’t cost much, he’ll probably only cost a mid-level prospect, someone like Mike O’Neill

So since the Twins got a good value in Suzuki in free agency in the off-season, they should naturally just pass those savings on to any trade partner?

Huh?

AlwaysinModeration · July 23, 2014

I find this to be a lazy, curious way to analyze the cost of acquiring Sukuki:

Since Suzuki doesn’t cost much, he’ll probably only cost a mid-level prospect, someone like Mike O’Neill

So since the Twins got a good value in Suzuki in free agency in the off-season, they should naturally just pass those savings on to any trade partner?

Huh?

Currently Sano and Buxton are VERY cheap, so they could be had for a song!

JB_Iowa · July 23, 2014

currently sano and buxton are very cheap, so they could be had for a song!

lol

RichardSchuette · July 23, 2014

Given the distance between here and Pinto being ready to be an everyday catcher, it seems to make sense to resign Suzuki. But try to get him for two years plus an option year. I would rather see the Twins sign an everyday catcher like Suzuki, rather than go after a retread Ryan Doumit who can catch and move around in the outfield or at DH. This team needs to build a real everyday outfield with defensive range for the first time in several years, as well as nail down a permanent DH. But I'm afraid that won't happen until Gardy is no longer calling the shots on the field. He really prefers multi-position players. It gives him options, but it sure doesn't seem to help the team win since moving to Target Field.

Monkeypaws · July 23, 2014

I find this to be a lazy, curious way to analyze the cost of acquiring Sukuki:

Since Suzuki doesn’t cost much, he’ll probably only cost a mid-level prospect, someone like Mike O’Neill

So since the Twins got a good value in Suzuki in free agency in the off-season, they should naturally just pass those savings on to any trade partner?

Huh?

That sentence stuck out to me as well. Hopefully this whole article is as off base.

snepp · July 24, 2014

If he won't sign a reasonable extension before the season ends, there's absolutely no reason not to trade him in the next ten days.

And then give Pinto as many major league innings behind the plate as he can physically handle.

jokin · July 24, 2014

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp
Like Denard Span and Ben Revere?

I understand the Ryan doesn't move players when some people want him to move them (never mind that peoples' notion of "sell high" is often unreasonable) but let's not pretend that he doesn't move some players at precisely the right time. Span's value collapsed almost immediately after the trade and Revere wasn't far behind him.

Exactly, all those people clamor in for May and Meyer forget how they got to the Twins.

I supported both of the trades, but having said that.....Great storyline about Span and Revere, but not necessarily true..... in terms of fWAR:

Denard Span fWAR in:

2012 w/ Twins: 3.5

2013 w/ Nats: 3.5 (league leader in Triples w/ 11).

2014 w/ Nats: 2.1 in fWAR and 2.3 bWAR, which extrapolates full-season out to somewhere +/- close to 3.5 WAR once again. Span had a career-high 46 XBH in 2012, 43 XBH in 2013, extrapolating out in 2014 over 162 games, and using his current 35 XBH, Span is due for 57 XBH.

Revere missed nearly half the season last year, he was one of the 5 hottest batters in multiple major categories over the previous 2.5 months before he sustained a season-ending injury. His OPS+ went up with Philadelphia in 2013 from 89 to 93. His batting slash-line is almost identical over 2012, 2013, 2014. The big difference in terms of fWAR is the "collapse" in his defensive ranking*, which really represents more a position change than anything resembling a collapse.

*(Curiously, Span's drop in bWAR in 2013 was also due primarily to a BRef downgrading of Span's defense, while meanwhile, under fWAR, Span's defensive value actually increased in 2013 with Washington).

The Wise One · July 24, 2014

I supported both of the trades, but having said that.....Great storyline about Span and Revere, but not necessarily true..... in terms of fWAR:

Denard Span fWAR in:

2012 w/ Twins: 3.5
2013 w/ Nats: 3.5 (league leader in Triples w/ 11).
2014 w/ Nats: 2.1 in both fWAR and bWAR, which extrapolates full-season out to somewhere +/- close to 3.5 WAR once again. Span had a career-high 46 XBH in 2012, 43 XBH in 2013, extrapolating out in 2014 over 162 games, and using his current 35 XBH, Span is due for 57 XBH.

Revere missed nearly half the season last year, he was one of the 5 hottest batters in multiple major categories over the previous 2.5 months before he sustained a season-ending injury. His OPS+ went up with Philadelphia in 2013 from 89 to 93. His batting slash-line is almost identical over 2012, 2013, 2014. The big difference in terms of fWAR is the "collapse" in his defensive ranking*, which really represents more a position change than anything resembling a collapse.

*(Curiously, Span's drop in bWAR in 2013 was also due primarily to a BRef downgrading of Span's defense, while meanwhile, under fWAR, Span's defensive value actually increased in 2013 with Washington).

If Reveere has value it is as a centerfielder, which he is not as good at as compared to RF by defensive WAR. Right fielders with a 93 OPS+ is not really very good for your offense. Reverw's .300 woba puts him near the bottom of qualified centerfielders. Byy WAR he is amongst the worst qualified outfielders in the league. What made him valuable 2 years ago was perceived upside. That upside gets lower with every passing year, injured or not.

Spaan was in the league long enough to know that he would be what he is. He still is what he was except for one thing. He will no longer be cheap nor young. With those two factors he loses trade value.

Seth Stohs · July 25, 2014

Jon Heyman reporting that both the Cardinals and Orioles are looking at Kurt Suzuki... not that this is surprising, of course.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24636979/orioles-and-twins-among-teams-looking-at-catcher-kurt-suzuki

Winston Smith · July 25, 2014

Jon Heyman reporting that both the Cardinals and Orioles are looking at Kurt Suzuki... not that this is surprising, of course.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24636979/orioles-and-twins-among-teams-looking-at-catcher-kurt-suzuki

Get Sisco from the O's a left handed hitting catcher to pair with Pinto.

diehardtwinsfan · July 25, 2014

Get Sisco from the O's a left handed hitting catcher to pair with Pinto.

I'd be quite happy with this. Here's the O's list. Cisco is in low A right now, but he's got an .869 OPS to date as a 19 year old, and I think the Sal league is technically a bit tougher than the MWL. The only downside is that he's at least 3 years out. Eudardo Rodriguez might be a nice buy low candidate as well. He's 21 in AA and a hard throwing lefty. Hunter Harvey is another one I'd target. He's flat out dominating the SAL league right now at 19.

As for the Cards, I think I like the O's options better. Piscotti might not be a bad deal, but I'm not liking the lack of power. Reyes is pretty wild, but could be a really good pitcher. There's quite a bit of risk here. Kaminski might not be a bad get, but his K rate is really low as well. Could be a Stewart type thing here as he's dominating the MWL.

Dman · July 25, 2014

I'd be quite happy with this. Here's the O's list. Cisco is in low A right now, but he's got an .869 OPS to date as a 19 year old, and I think the Sal league is technically a bit tougher than the MWL. The only downside is that he's at least 3 years out. Eudardo Rodriguez might be a nice buy low candidate as well. He's 21 in AA and a hard throwing lefty. Hunter Harvey is another one I'd target. He's flat out dominating the SAL league right now at 19.

As for the Cards, I think I like the O's options better. Piscotti might not be a bad deal, but I'm not liking the lack of power. Reyes is pretty wild, but could be a really good pitcher. There's quite a bit of risk here. Kaminski might not be a bad get, but his K rate is really low as well. Could be a Stewart type thing here as he's dominating the MWL.

I'd be fine with any one of those options. Maybe throw something else in to sweeten the pot? Like maybe a 25 year old reliever, possible closer coming back from injury? tic

AlwaysinModeration · July 25, 2014

If the Twins could get Hunter Harvey or Eduardo Rodriguez for Kurt Suzuki, that would be outstanding. For nothing more than a cheap free agent signing to boot. It would be a steep price, but if TR can swing it--nice.

AlwaysinModeration · July 25, 2014

Harvey #58 and ERodriguez #61 on the BP prospect lists last off-season. Doubt either would be attainable for Suzuki.

JB_Iowa · July 25, 2014

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 38m
Sources: #Twins’ field people pushing to keep Suzuki. Quick extension unlikely, but other catchers in organization much less advanced.

Winston Smith · July 25, 2014

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 38m
Sources: #Twins’ field people pushing to keep Suzuki. Quick extension unlikely, but other catchers in organization much less advanced.

Doesn't make much sense to maybe win few more games. Gardy's life time job on shaky ground?

Dman · July 26, 2014

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 38m
Sources: #Twins’ field people pushing to keep Suzuki. Quick extension unlikely, but other catchers in organization much less advanced.

Someone help me with the logic here. It is best to sign him to an extension that is so high that you could likely sign him in the off season for less? They are afraid if they trade him someone else will extend him? Or they are afraid no matter what they do they can't outbid other teams for his services in FA?

How will the catchers we have get better unless they get experience? I am not understanding the extension logic for such a high price.

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