OF situation thus far, and looking ahead.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Comparing his most recent two years is extremely valuable in judging his potential career path, and, IMO, his year over year improvement could fairly be regarded as better than marginal- I've presented evidence, as such . And what's wrong with an OPS+ of 101? He's going to have career highs in BBs, XBHs and OBP in 2014. And you haven't responded to the evidence of the clear changes he's made in his approach, and results, at the plate, that suggest better things going forward. And I haven't recommended that he be permanently ensconced in a corner OF spot. My suggestion for Plouffe is as a Super-Util corner IF-OF guy. And the (estimated) $4M cost would be extremely modest, he's under team control through 2017 and can be a cheap veteran presence as the prospects make their way to the league over the next 3 years.

 

Plouffe's OBP is set to be a career high by .008 -- if it doesn't continue dropping. Isolated discipline? .005. BB%? 1%. All dropping since April. His ISO is set to be a whopping .010 ahead of his 2011 pre-HR binge figure too. These are improvements that are better than nothing, but they are razor-thin at this point.

 

I didn't mean to ignore the swing% and spray charts, I am just not expert in them. Hopefully they prove to be better indicators than the evidence from April that he had dramatically become an OBP machine either, or the evidence in 2012 that he was a HR monster...

 

Nothing's inherently wrong with an OPS+ of 101, I just noted his wRC+ of 101 generally ranks in the bottom half of MLB 3B, and ranks much lower (around #30) at 1B, LF, and RF. That's not terrible as a patch when you have no other options, but he's not much of an asset moving that way on the defensive spectrum.

 

Hopefully by midseason 2015, there won't be many reps available for Plouffe at 3B, and perhaps even fewer at 1B. I don't particularly mind if he sticks around as a bench player after that, but I would be tempted to flip Plouffe for whatever I could get and give full-time jobs to younger, higher-upside guys in the corner OF spots.

[Mike Sixel]

I didn't say I'd trade him, I said presuming that trading Dozier alone is punting on 2015 is not a valid assumption.

 

I also said, rookie+somthing else vs Dozier + nothing, that's the comparison to make.

 

Doesn't matter, they aren't trading Dozier, I was just arguing with Brock because he likes it when I do.

[drjim]

But if that growth is built on veterans that won't be there in 2 years, they won't have the growth, because they'll be replaced by rookies. OTOH, if they get those guys up here next year, they won't be rookies in 2016.....in other words, if Suzuki and Morales won't be here in 2016/7, have they really grown? How will they plug those holes, if they have not grown them, or acquired younger players that will be here then?

 

The movement for this franchise will come from Buxton and Sano, hopefully some improvement from guys here (Arcia, Santana, Hicks), current established guys (Mauer, Dozier), the development of pitching, and perhaps a surprise or two.

 

Bridging the gap for a year or two with Morales and/or Suzuki does nothing to change this.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But if that growth is built on veterans that won't be there in 2 years, they won't have the growth, because they'll be replaced by rookies. OTOH, if they get those guys up here next year, they won't be rookies in 2016.....in other words, if Suzuki and Morales won't be here in 2016/7, have they really grown? How will they plug those holes, if they have not grown them, or acquired younger players that will be here then?

 

There's no reason they can't do both. Just like this season, non-contending teams can trade the Kevin Correias and Josh Willinghams of the world to clear space for the Meyers and Mays.

 

You keep the window open to contend, hand the team to the young guys in July if it doesn't happen.

 

Outside of Josmil Pinto, who would Suzuki or Morales block on Opening Day 2015? Vargas won't be ready and if Pinto is going to catch, he needs to do it in Rochester for awhile. It's pretty obvious that he has a long way to go before he's a MLB catcher. The overwhelming likelihood is that it won't happen between today and April 1, 2015.

[drjim]

I didn't say I'd trade him, I said presuming that trading Dozier alone is punting on 2015 is not a valid assumption.

 

I also said, rookie+somthing else vs Dozier + nothing, that's the comparison to make.

 

Doesn't matter, they aren't trading Dozier, I was just arguing with Brock because he likes it when I do.

 

I certainly agree with your last point, they aren't trading Dozier.

[Mike Sixel]

The movement for this franchise will come from Buxton and Sano, hopefully some improvement from guys here (Arcia, Santana, Hicks), current established guys (Mauer, Dozier), the development of pitching, and perhaps a surprise or two.

 

Bridging the gap for a year or two with Morales and/or Suzuki does nothing to change this.

 

That's kind of my point....they haven't "improved" their team beyond a year or two by signing these guys. The team isn't "growing" by adding those guys at all. That was exactly my point.

[jokin]

Plouffe's OBP is set to be a career high by .008 -- if it doesn't continue dropping. Isolated discipline? .005. BB%? 1%. All dropping since April. His ISO is set to be a whopping .010 ahead of his 2011 pre-HR binge figure too. These are improvements that are better than nothing, but they are razor-thin at this point.

 

I didn't mean to ignore the swing% and spray charts, I am just not expert in them. Hopefully they prove to be better indicators than the evidence from April that he had dramatically become an OBP machine either, or the evidence in 2012 that he was a HR monster...

 

Nothing's inherently wrong with an OPS+ of 101, I just noted his wRC+ of 101 generally ranks in the bottom half of MLB 3B, and ranks much lower (around #30) at 1B, LF, and RF. That's not terrible as a patch when you have no other options, but he's not much of an asset moving that way on the defensive spectrum.

 

Hopefully by midseason 2015, there won't be many reps available for Plouffe at 3B, and perhaps even fewer at 1B. I don't particularly mind if he sticks around as a bench player after that, but I would be tempted to flip Plouffe for whatever I could get and give full-time jobs to younger, higher-upside guys in the corner OF spots.

 

 

Besides his BB% rising from 6.5% in 2013 to 9% in 2014, which augurs well for a continually improving OBP going forward... Added this to my previous post:

 

His oWAR for this season sits at 1.6, last year all season it was 1.7, and in 2012, 2.0, barring injury, it seems he will easily eclipse those previous totals, with a real chance at having close to a 3.0 oWAR season.

 

We're pretty close to agreement on Plouffe over the next 3 years, if they can get something that projects to Plouffe's likely near-3.0 WAR in 2014 in trade, they should definitely pull the trigger, but it would be nice to have a relatively young and cheap veteran that could be plugged in in multiple spots during this transition period.

[spanman2]

I wouldn't be trying to trade to Dozier I would be entertaining an extension after this year. He seems to have a little 2002 Twins attitude in him. Playing like he needs it and won't let anyone take it away from him.

 

 

As unlikely as it seemed even three months ago, I think the answer to that has to be "yes".

 

Over the past 365 days, Dozier has 28 home runs. He's been a masher for roughly 13-14 months now. I think it's safe to say that this is who Brian Dozier is now. He's a low average, high discipline masher at a premium position.

 

Unless the offer is "holy crap, yeah, I'll take the #4 prospect in baseball" good, there is no reason to trade Brian Dozier, particularly for a guy owed a bunch of money over the next handful of years (Allen Craig).

 

I don't understand why people are in a rush to get rid of Brian Dozier. He's a 2.5-4 WAR player right now. That's a really valuable piece and the return better be amazing if he's moved and it needs to be a lot better than Craig, a defensively-challenged OF/1B type who is owed $25m in the next three years. Trading Dozier seems a lot like shuffling deck chairs. You're closing one hole so you can open another. It doesn't actually improve the team in any capacity.

[drjim]

That's kind of my point....they haven't "improved" their team beyond a year or two by signing these guys. The team isn't "growing" by adding those guys at all. That was exactly my point.

 

But the easy counter is that it would be a stretch to think they are actively hurting the team by signing them either. A team can try to compete in the short term while also building for a better future.

 

You, among others, say there is no plan, but I would argue this is what they are doing. They are trying to patch in the short term and try to be competitive while doing nothing to compromise the long term future of the organization (i.e. trade prospects).

 

I don't think calling up prospects before they are ready is very helpful, and I don't think playing marginal big leaguers like Parmelee and Colabello instead of signing legitimate mlb players does much of anything either.

[TheDean]

Considering it's a thread on the OF of the future (and not a(nother) Dozier trade thread ), I figured I'd try to spark some discussion about less-heralded OF contributors.

 

Does anyone know what the reports on Ortiz are like over at AAA? The numbers don't look great since leaving NB, but could he be a role player mid-season 2015? I know nothing of his defense, but he seems to get time at both corners and played some CF in his early pro days. It seems like he is closer than Rosario (or even Hicks ) because he's already shown that he's past AA. Definitely needs AAA seasoning, but I just felt like he doesn't get much talk in these threads.

 

It's a little sad that there's really no one else in the upper minors OF to talk about beyond Ortiz, Rosario, and Hicks. Everyone else is a late 20s/early 30s replacement player (Rodriguez/Ramierez/Farris/Wimberly/Rahl). The only exceptions are maybe Herrmann and Kvasnicka who seem to be low-ceiling mid-20s backup catcher/utility types.

[lightfoot789]

Bash Brothers 2016

1) Buxton CF (17 HR)

2) Dozier 2B (28 HR)

3) Mauer 1B (8 HR)

4) Arcia LF (30 HR)

5) Sano 3B (34 HR)

6) Vargas DH (26 HR)

7) Walker RF (30 HR)

8) Pinto C (20 HR)

9) Santana or Polanco SS (7 HR)

 

200 Home Runs with just the starters - At least 6 guys with 20+ HRs

Would be nice run support for those impressive pitchers in the wings. Game changers . I can dream

[oldguy10]

lightfoot, if you had indicated 2017 or 2018 I think it would be closer to the truth and perhaps Dozier will be a trade chip by then with either Santana or Polanco at 2B. And perhaps one of the kid catchers instead of Pinto as well.

[Lakeside]

Considering it's a thread on the OF of the future (and not a(nother) Dozier trade thread ), I figured I'd try to spark some discussion about less-heralded OF contributors.

 

Does anyone know what the reports on Ortiz are like over at AAA? The numbers don't look great since leaving NB, but could he be a role player mid-season 2015? I know nothing of his defense, but he seems to get time at both corners and played some CF in his early pro days. It seems like he is closer than Rosario (or even Hicks ) because he's already shown that he's past AA. Definitely needs AAA seasoning, but I just felt like he doesn't get much talk in these threads.

 

It's a little sad that there's really no one else in the upper minors OF to talk about beyond Ortiz, Rosario, and Hicks. Everyone else is a late 20s/early 30s replacement player (Rodriguez/Ramierez/Farris/Wimberly/Rahl). The only exceptions are maybe Herrmann and Kvasnicka who seem to be low-ceiling mid-20s backup catcher/utility types.

 

OF of the future could include Kvasnika. He seems to be regaining the confidence he had when at the U of M.

 

Switch-hitter, corner outfielder. . .he is the long-shot who could possibly help in late 2015 or 2016.

 

While I have not seen him personally, Harrison at FTM also sounds like someone who could be a surprise as a corner outfielder in time. Long way away though.

[Danchat]

(2015) CF-Buxton/Fuld

 

There are some people in this thread who are praising Fuld waaaay too much. Let's remember that he is a 4th OF at best and his current batting average is mostly luck. He will slump eventually and end up around .220. Ideally Fuld shouldn't be on this roster in 2015 and he probably won't be.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Don't get me wrong because I like Fuld, but last I looked he was hitting .269. He does play a good CF and gives you speed at the bottom of the order. I'm suggesting he is the CF until Buxton arrives.

 

Santana--if we have Buxton, is Santana not a shortstop and should we just start playing him there.

 

Arcia--like the raw power, like the enthusiasm, can he play consistently at the MLB level is the question that has to be asked. I say give him some time because he has succeeded at every other level.

 

Plouffe--if Sano is the 3B of the future. . . do we move him (Flouffe) to OF. Plouffe has talent but drives me crazy with his "streaky" play.

 

Hicks--talented. . need to be careful we don't "Gomez" him and give up on him just as he matures and understands what has to be done. I think Hicks has a MLB future.

 

Rosario--generally has hit everywhere. . .having some troubles this year. . but his past indicates he will hit in MLB

 

Parmelee--showing promise. . . but a little like Plouffe in that he is streaky. . . when's the last time he hit a HR?

 

Colabello--Is he a MLB hitter. . we should know at the end of this season. . plus he will be 31. Don't thik he will be with us next year.

 

Willingham--taking for granted that he will be moved this July

 

Morales-see Willingham

 

Nunez--can play outfield okay and all infield positions, plus he can hit, which IMO makes him a great player to carry on the roster.

 

Here's my take for the "end" of the 2015 Season. . .

1B-Mauer

2B-Dozier

SS-Santana

3B-Sano (if not then Escobar/Nunez)

LF-Plouffe/Rosario/Hicks

CF-Buxton/Fuld

RF-Arcia/Parmelee/Hicks

C-Pinto

DH-Vargas

 

*This does not address any trades, which may be coming. . We have some good infield prospects in the low minors that could bring a MLB hitter to this fold.

 

*This line-up is truly HR power hitting challenged especially if Sano is not ready. We will save about $28 million annually if Willingham, Correia, Suzuki, Burton, Morales are gone. I'm pretty bullish that our SP will be improving with Meyer and Mays. So, my question is, How do we spend that $28M that will help us scoring more runs?

Buxton, Sano, and Vargas each have a long way to go. You may be right, but I think only one of those three cracks the bigs in 2015. Until they're each ready, you have to be able to roll. No sense in moving somebody to make room for a guy who isn't there yet.

[stringer bell]

Interesting to talk about the outfield going forward--Arcia is the surest thing. I hope he is solid the rest of the year. Buxton remains the future in center. I still think he will make his debut next year. He will need to make a Berrios-type jump next year. The remainder of this year and the AFL are crucial, as well. Rosario and Hicks are on the horizon. So far, Hicks has outhit Rosario at AA, but it is a SSS and Hicks is two years older. I can see Parmelee in a backup role and Trevor Plouffe logging considerable time in the outfield as soon as next year.

[stringer bell]

The two current center fielders have both exceeded expectations. Fuld is a fourth OF, but he is a capable CF and he has hit surprisingly well so far. Much like Escobar, he can't be overused. Santana really has done well so far, and moving between shortstop and center can work and it might have to until Buxton emerges. It is great to have options.

[lightfoot789]

lightfoot, if you had indicated 2017 or 2018 I think it would be closer to the truth and perhaps Dozier will be a trade chip by then with either Santana or Polanco at 2B. And perhaps one of the kid catchers instead of Pinto as well.

 

You're probably right on timeline

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't agree that they are punting on 2015 if they deal Dozier. That presumes several things:

 

1. They get no help in 2015

2. Rosario/Polanco/Someone+whatever they get<Dozier, nothing from a trade

3. They don't trade for another 2B if they want, or sign one

4. They have a real chance to be good in 2015

 

This team can't score runs, and is still last/near last in starter ERA. You seem pretty sure they will be competitive next year, what is that based on? Are you sure they won't get MLB help in teh deal, that might offset the loss of Dozier (at a different position, say)?

 

Rosario is scuffling at AA, Polanco is at A+. Neither one is going to be ready next spring. I think a Dozier trade may make sense at one point, but I'd much rather that his replacement earn the spot first rather than trading off a well above average piece of the future before that has happened. It made sense with Span given that there was no chance he played out his contract on a winner. It made sense with Revere given that he was worth more than what he could provide. It doesn't make sense with Dozier... not right now at least.

[jokin]

There are some people in this thread who are praising Fuld waaaay too much. Let's remember that he is a 4th OF at best and his current batting average is mostly luck. He will slump eventually and end up around .220. Ideally Fuld shouldn't be on this roster in 2015 and he probably won't be.

 

I'm not seeing the excessive praise for Fuld, except for in the moment. I don't think anyone assumes better than a mean reversion for Fuld in BA. He is what he is, a 4th OF, only now forced into a starting role because an injured SS and Chris Freaking Parmelee are the alternatives in CF. It seems unlikely that the Twins would jettison him and replay the ridiculous nightmare of their own making that happened this season. Until they are certain that they have multiple CF options, and most importantly- with remaining options- I don't think Fuld is going anywhere for now.

[bird]

That's kind of my point....they haven't "improved" their team beyond a year or two by signing these guys. The team isn't "growing" by adding those guys at all. That was exactly my point.

 

But the team IS growing, all around the established guys. Both in MLB and in the minors. Both more established young players like Plouffe and Parmelee and newer additions like Gibson and Santana, and a bunch of prospects getting closer, such as Tonkin, Berrios and Polanco. The established guys only enhance this growth, unless they're blocking some phenom, and that's simply not the case. Some argue that May and Meyer have been blocked, but I don't buy that..yet.

[TheDean]

OF of the future could include Kvasnika. He seems to be regaining the confidence he had when at the U of M.

 

Switch-hitter, corner outfielder. . .he is the long-shot who could possibly help in late 2015 or 2016.

 

While I have not seen him personally, Harrison at FTM also sounds like someone who could be a surprise as a corner outfielder in time. Long way away though.

 

I noticed that Kvasnicka hasn't been playing catcher anymore, so I guess he's a pure OF now? Maybe I was wrong to group him with Herrmann then, but at this point I would have thought that having flexibility to play C could really help his chances of at least getting a look in Sept '15. We know how much the management loves versatility!

[Mike Sixel]

But the team IS growing, all around the established guys. Both in MLB and in the minors. Both more established young players like Plouffe and Parmelee and newer additions like Gibson and Santana, and a bunch of prospects getting closer, such as Tonkin, Berrios and Polanco. The established guys only enhance this growth, unless they're blocking some phenom, and that's simply not the case. Some argue that May and Meyer have been blocked, but I don't buy that..yet.

 

 

A reasonable post, that I disagree with. The MLB team is not growing for the future. The minors might be, but other than Santana, zero players are on teh roster that came up for the first time this year. Signing Morales does not, imo, help them in 2 years, when Buxton and Sano are up for good (hopefully). I just don't see the growth of the MLB team right now. But I think disagreeing with me is reasonable.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Interesting to talk about the outfield going forward--Arcia is the surest thing. I hope he is solid the rest of the year. Buxton remains the future in center. I still think he will make his debut next year. He will need to make a Berrios-type jump next year. The remainder of this year and the AFL are crucial, as well. Rosario and Hicks are on the horizon. So far, Hicks has outhit Rosario at AA, but it is a SSS and Hicks is two years older. I can see Parmelee in a backup role and Trevor Plouffe logging considerable time in the outfield as soon as next year.

 

Sano will end up in LF.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Where we will be: KLaw and I feel that Sano will end up in LF.

[jokin]

Where we will be: KLaw and I feel that Sano will end up in LF.

 

Close. From Klaw's latest article on the Top 50:

 

The projection remains the same -- 35-40 homer power, .350+ OBPs, most likely in right field or at first base.

[DocBauer]

Optimistic proposition and following question.

 

Despite possibly shaking off some initial rust, probably, let's assume the Santana of the second half is the same Santana, more or less, that he has been the first half. In other words, a work in progress, particularly in CF, but talented and dynamic, improving, a real spark plug for the team.

 

Are you comfortable with him targeted as the principal CF option going in to 2015? With say Fuld, or similar, as competition/backup and Hicks and Rosario on the farm, getting close, waiting Buxton to jump them.

 

Or do you feel we need to go a little more all in for a short-term veteran option?

 

If Santana would, unfortunately, suddenly show regression, how would that change your thoughts.

 

Im not so sure I'm not more concerned with a productive bat/player for LF, probably short term, unless there's someone out there under 30 who is deserving of a longer term deal.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Optimistic proposition and following question.

 

Despite possibly shaking off some initial rust, probably, let's assume the Santana of the second half is the same Santana, more or less, that he has been the first half. In other words, a work in progress, particularly in CF, but talented and dynamic, improving, a real spark plug for the team.

 

Are you comfortable with him targeted as the principal CF option going in to 2015? With say Fuld, or similar, as competition/backup and Hicks and Rosario on the farm, getting close, waiting Buxton to jump them.

 

Or do you feel we need to go a little more all in for a short-term veteran option?

 

If Santana would, unfortunately, suddenly show regression, how would that change your thoughts.

 

Im not so sure I'm not more concerned with a productive bat/player for LF, probably short term, unless there's someone out there under 30 who is deserving of a longer term deal.

 

Get a vet at CF, plug Santana in at SS.

[Thrylos]

So where does this leave us in the short term for the balance of this season and 2015?

 

balance of this season will be Santana/Fuld/Hicks

 

2015 will depend on the Twins 2014 record and/or whether changes will be made because of that record. Too early to tell... One thing for sure, Buxton will likely start 2015 in AA and not in Minnesota at least until later in the season, depending on how he and the Twins are doing.

[kab21]

This thread is a painful read.

 

Why on Earth should the Twins trade on its only good, established, young players because he will be a FA in 5 years? His value will still be very high in 2-3 years. The Twins do have a couple of nice 2B prospects but they are still question marks and this team DOES NOT NEED more question marks on the field.

 

Parmelee hasn't shown any indication that he has turned a corner. He had 40 some awesome AB's in June and 40 some terrible AB's in July. He's nothing more than backup OF'er.

 

Finally some people have come to their senses on Fuld.

 

Plouffe shouldn't be moved anywhere or traded until Sano is actually back at 3B and knocking on the MLB door. I'm not convinced Sano will be at 3B for long and Plouffe is actually a solid MLB 3Bman despite everyone's angst against him.

 

The fact is that despite a supposed depth of OF'ers that almost everyone thinks the Twins have they actually have very little depth anywhere.

 

People didn't like my Delmon Young comparison for Arcia a couple of months ago but that is what he is right now. He is an extremely talented raw hitter and he could be a star (so could have Delmon) but he has some big issues that need to be addressed at the MLB level before that happens.

 

Hicks can still come back and be an MLB contributor but his upside has dropped a lot in the last couple of years. Right now I would be happy if he became an solid MLB starter.

 

Buxton can still be an elite player and is really the only OF'er that the Twins have that I would feel comfortable inking in as an MLB starter in 4 years.

 

Walker has hit HR's but can't manage a .300 OBP in A ball. The opposite is true of Harrison (not a 3B for long). He can't hit HR's.

 

Kepler hasn't hit anything.

 

The point is that the Twins OF is hardly an organizational strength that we have thought it was. It's full of players (aside from Buxton and Arcia) that you hope are able to become solid MLB starters but most likely disappoint. It's possible that someone goes Dozier out their depth but you can't count on it. Or it's possible that Rosario and Sano are moved to the OF. At that point the Twins have a good OF but at the price of depth at every other position.

 

And 2014/2015 MLB OF most likely will be below average. Possibly terrible unless Arcia breaks out or Buxton is promoted early.