Article: Nolasco Presents a Big Problem

[jorgenswest]

2014 Twins starting pitching:

WAR rank: 20 ---- 9 place jump

ERA rank: 29th----1 place jump

runs allowed per game: .625 from being median---that's worse, runs are down across the league

 

 

2013 rankings:

WAR: 29th

ERA: 30th

runs allowed per game: .5 runs from median in the league

 

*the last calculation was done quickly, hope I didn't mess it up......but you need to compare the Twins not only to each other, but the rest of the league. Distance from median is a good measurement, imo.

 

20th? Wow! I am astonished.

 

I checked and it is accurate (at least for Fangraphs WAR).

 

It is also astonishing that the Twins starters rank higher than the Giants, though the Giants ERA sits at 3.59.

 

Fangraphs attempts to separate the pitching from the defense. If 20th is the true Twin rank, they must have a horrific defense that needs to be fixed first before any assessment of the pitching can be made.

 

Fangraphs credits the Twins starters for 5.7 WAR. BR credits them for round 2.6. I had to add the individuals so there may be a rounding error and I couldn't see how Deduno starts were split from relief so I used his fangraph start value. A 2.6 WAR would rank 30th on Fangraphs list.

 

How much is the defense contributing to runs scored against? Fangraphs suggests it might be significant. BR suggests the starting pitching has been pretty awful.

[naobermiller]

20th? Wow! I am astonished.

 

I checked and it is accurate (at least for Fangraphs WAR).

 

It is also astonishing that the Twins starters rank higher than the Giants, though the Giants ERA sits at 3.59.

 

Fangraphs attempts to separate the pitching from the defense. If 20th is the true Twin rank, they must have a horrific defense that needs to be fixed first before any assessment of the pitching can be made.

 

Fangraphs credits the Twins starters for 5.7 WAR. BR credits them for round 2.6. I had to add the individuals so there may be a rounding error and I couldn't see how Deduno starts were split from relief so I used his fangraph start value. A 2.6 WAR would rank 30th on Fangraphs list.

 

How much is the defense contributing to runs scored against? Fangraphs suggests it might be significant. BR suggests the starting pitching has been pretty awful.

 

Fangraphs is a lot more lenient toward bad pitching performances than baseball-reference. A nice read to understand the difference if you're into that thing is:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

[JB_Iowa]

Weren't many of the discussions last off-season on Nolasco vs. Arroyo?

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/bronson-arroyo-to-undergo-tommy-john-surgery.html

 

I guess there was just no winning with either of them.

[jorgenswest]

Fangraphs is a lot more lenient toward bad pitching performances than baseball-reference. A nice read to understand the difference if you're into that thing is:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

 

Fangraphs WAR is FIP based. Home runs, strikeouts and walks matter. Nothing else matters. The difference between FIP and RA is far greater for the Twins than any other team.

 

Can the difference be explained by horrific defense?

 

Does Fangraphs rank of 20th truly represent the skill of the Twin starters?

 

Is it possible that the Twins starters are much poorer than 20th and Fangraphs FIP based calculations do not represent the performance of their starters accurately?

[naobermiller]

Fangraphs WAR is FIP based. Home runs, strikeouts and walks matter. Nothing else matters. The difference between FIP and RA is far greater for the Twins than any other team.

 

Can the difference be explained by horrific defense?

 

Does Fangraphs rank of 20th truly represent the skill of the Twin starters?

 

Is it possible that the Twins starters are much poorer than 20th and Fangraphs FIP based calculations do not represent the performance of their starters accurately?

 

I'd argue that neither of them are truly representative. Since there's a discrepancy, it means there's differing opinions on what determines a pitcher's effectiveness, and that the truth exists somewhere between the two. But that's just my inner statistician poking it's ugly head out.

[JB_Iowa]

• Rhett Bollinger ‏@RhettBollinger 1m
  Nolasco met with Gardenhire and admitted his elbow has bothered him throughout season but was something he thought he could pitch through
  
  • Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 2m
    Gardy called Nolasco an "old-school baseball guy," suggested he had been pitching through some level of pain he had kept to himself.
    
    • Rhett Bollinger ‏@RhettBollinger 3m
      Ricky Nolasco has been dealing with elbow soreness and will fly back to Minnesota tonight to get it checked out by Dr. Steubs
      
      • Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 11m
        Nolasco sore elbow. MRI Tuesday
        

       

      Edit: And to add:

       

      [*]

      [*]

      [*]Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 3m

      Nolasco compared current elbow issue to what he felt in 2007, when he missed most of the year, Antony said.

       

       

       

       

      • Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 2m
        Nolasco threw just 55 total innings in 2007, 21 in the majors, following elbow problem he compared to what he's currently feeling.
         
         
        

       

       

     

     

   

   

   

   

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Thanks JB. Is Nolasco's elbow injury the same injury that Pelfrey had to his groin?

 

The conspiracy theorist in me thinks so, but....

[Gernzy]

Nolasco should have said something two months ago...wow

This does explain some of the issues he's having.

[JB_Iowa]

In a way, I can appreciate Nolasco gutting it out and just pitching .... but for the horrid results. He had just signed a relatively large contract. I'm sure he wanted to live up to those obligations.

 

In the long run, it would have been better if he said something earlier. And maybe they won't find anything. But if they do, I think I will actually feel better about him than I have.

[JB_Iowa]

• Mike Berardino ‏@MikeBerardino 11m
  #mntwins took out an insurance policy on Nolasco's $49 million contract but it's unknown if there is an exception for elbow history
   
   
  

[gil4]

Nolasco's 5.90 ERA is the worst and nobody else is even close -- Justin Masterson is next at 5.16.

 

Just a side note - Masterson is doing his best to close the gap. Tonight - 2 IP, 5 ER; ERA up to 5.51 now.

[stringer bell]

Here is espn's report:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11189187/ricky-nolasco-minnesota-twins-sidelined-elbow-soreness

[drjim]

Agreed, the money is a big difference. I would hope that free agency is less of a crap shoot, given the significant difference in information.

 

There is generally a reason that pitchers reach free agency. It is not just money, it is the poor supply in free agency, and those available are generally pitchers with warts.

 

Nolasco was pretty much a consensus top 5 free agent pitcher in the offseason. This is why building through free agency is so troublesome.

[stringer bell]

This would tie in with the reduced velocity that really limits Nolasco's effectiveness. I just wonder how often a pitcher is really 100%. The aforementioned Masterson might be a really good example.

[Buck Nasty]

I have a deja vu feeling....there was another pitcher who got lit up/pitched poorly only to come out after the fact and say they were pitching hurt. Was it Slowey? Or was it Perkins when he was starting? I can't remember other than it didn't end well for that pitcher.

[Trevor0333]

That is a 17% increase in a pitch that doesn't work well......some awesome strategy there.

 

I'd think this is on Suzuki primarily... Anderson/Gardy second. This to me is something that Anderson and Gardy need to work with Suzuki to have him adjust his approach with Nolasco.

 

Except for that little problem of being completely unable to locate any of those pitches.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Fangraphs has calculated what the Twins record would be without Nolasco's 5-7 win-loss record: 34-41. Still last place in the Central.

 

Just some perspective on this.

[Trevor0333]

Soon it will be...

 

We found a little inflammation & have him rest a couple weeks. Followed by short start, 60 day DL, & finally TJ.

[Mike Sixel]

So, ya, I do not admire guys who hide injuries.....they tend to perform badly, and prolong their recovery. Well, this sucks, or maybe he will pitch better in one to two years. Sigh.

[Rosterman]

No matter how highly we think of May or Meyer, they will possibly take some lumps in their major league debut. Might as well get it done and over with. We can patch in Johnson and Logan. Heck, why not advance Kohl Stewart and let him pitch and learn (ala Aaron Hicks). If anyone thinks the Twins pitching prospects will be lights out, think again...especially with the offensive that they currently have behind them. I'm almost thinking he Twins are thinking to promote players as a group, but really expect to see lumps if we throw five rookies in the lineup and three in the rotation in a six-month period. It seems the Twins hope for a .500 season is slowly diminishing. At least attendance took a jolt upwards this past month and might be able to sustain itself thru August, but picture empty stands and lots of cheap tickets again in September and good luck selling season tickets next year with no "All-Star" game to dangle.

[John Kelsey]

Heck, why not advance Kohl Stewart and let him pitch and learn (ala Aaron Hicks).

 

Where should I start?

 

Not even a remotely similar situation to Hicks.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Well. Pain all season. Couldn't get loose. It's too bad he felt he had to hide his injury - he could have been a late scratch for the Yankee game and Deduno or Swarzak could've taken his place.

 

In general, what is the benefit of hiding an elbow issue? Seems like a lose-lose situation. You either increase the severity of the injury, pitch poorly, or both.

 

Maybe it's another one of those unwritten rules. . .

[nicksaviking]

While Gardy does have the perception of coddling injured, even simply hurt players, I think had Nolasco told them he had soreness but believed he could pitch through it, they would have still run him out there. At least to a point.

 

I don't think he needed to hide the injury, this team let Brad Radke pitch with a fractured shoulder socket after all. They pushed Scott Baker to continue pitching even AFTER he started complaining about elbow problems and wasn't it Matt Capps who was injured all season yet they kept running him out to not close games because Capps wanted to tough it out?

 

I think if Nolasco told them he could handle it, they would have given him ample latitude to gut it out.

[tobi0040]

So, ya, I do not admire guys who hide injuries.....they tend to perform badly, and prolong their recovery. Well, this sucks, or maybe he will pitch better in one to two years. Sigh.

 

I completely agree. What Nolasco has given us is 103 IP at a 5.90 ERA. That is not helping us at all. In fact, his elbow will be worse, any surgery and recovery will be put off, and we could have used those 103 IP on a young guy like May or Meyer.

 

Just imagine for a second if a young pitcher, not a veteran had done that. Gardy would be mad.

[TheLeviathan]

Nolasco was pretty much a consensus top 5 free agent pitcher in the offseason. This is why building through free agency is so troublesome.

 

I don't think anyone is advocating "building" through free agency. It is nice, however, to "add" through free agency.

 

Like all decisions there is a risk of the move failing, nothing more and nothing less.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

I completely agree. What Nolasco has given us is 103 IP at a 5.90 ERA. That is not helping us at all. In fact, his elbow will be worse, any surgery and recovery will be put off, and we could have used those 103 IP on a young guy like May or Meyer.

 

Just imagine for a second if a young pitcher, not a veteran had done that. Gardy would be mad.

 

From the sound of things, Gardy was pretty mad about Nolasco's performance. Is Ricky forgiven now because he chose not to disclose an injury?

[drjim]

I don't think anyone is advocating "building" through free agency. It is nice, however, to "add" through free agency.

 

Like all decisions there is a risk of the move failing, nothing more and nothing less.

 

I certainly was in favor of the efforts this past offseason and was supportive of the actual players they brought in (though Pelfrey was certainly uninspired). $90 mil outlay is nothing to scoff at.

[TheLeviathan]

I certainly was in favor of the efforts this past offseason and was supportive of the actual players they brought in (though Pelfrey was certainly uninspired). $90 mil outlay is nothing to scoff at.

 

Absolutely, but it's a scarecrow that people want to "build" through FA. They want to add talent using a resource available.

 

And yeah, I think we can all agree Pelfrey has turned out to be even more mind-boggling than it was at the time. With Nolasco there is reason to be surprised it's turned out this badly so far. Pelfrey? It almost feels like the baseball gods punishing stupidity.

[tobi0040]

From the sound of things, Gardy was pretty mad about Nolasco's performance. Is Ricky forgiven now because he chose not to disclose an injury?

 

Probably, Gardy is probably using Nolasco as a model of toughness. If it was a rookie he would publicly berate them.

[az_twins]

I was kidding about Morris, obviously he's ancient history that doesn't pertain and the smiley face was there to avoid any serious discussion arising from him. Morris is always the answer when FA pitching comes up, it's pretty much like adding Duensing to any trade for a star.

 

I wanted to make sure what I thought you were saying about the move. If signing him was a bad move, then it's only with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. I normally don't like digging out people's words, and the TD search for the term "Nolasco" only goes back to February anyway, but I don't find many posters saying it was bad move then, including you.

 

A move is bad only at the time it is made. After that, you have an underperfoming member of the team. They should do something, but questioning the move isn't productive, inviting criticism of the very thing most folks were clamoring for the FO to do. We all had our preferences whom to get, but no one at the time stated that Nolasco would be the worst starter in the league at the All-Star Break.

 

I read these forums nearly daily and never comment since I'm too lazy to confirm any of my opinions (most of which are terrible). However, I thought I had commented once before (related to this topic), but have confirmed I never did (so, my first post!)

 

Anyway, I am pasting an email I sent to a buddy (unedited) on December 2, 2013. Some of the information in the post precedes some transactions made, so not relevant to Twins lineup come starting day. My email was in response to a buddy who was super excited about the Nolasco signing. In no way am I intending to make my first post to make me look like I knew what I was talking about. But, simply to say that not every Twins fan was optimistic about the signing.

 

***EMAIL***

 

Nolasco is not worth the 4/49 they're paying him. Not even close. I like the

Hughes signing, I think that will pan out ok. Of course, that comes with a

BIG "IF" he stays healthy. The guy hasn't pitched over what, 100 innings, in

3 of the last 4 years?!

 

Albers and Worley are not MLB ready, nor capable. They both belong in

AA/AAA. Deduno is wild and injury prone. His WHIP will always be an issue.

He can't strand base runners.

 

Gibson - who knows with that guy. He's a weak pitch-to-contact (just like

Nolasco and Hughes for the most part). Correia is our "best" pitcher and

that's pretty sad lol.

 

I see Nolasco struggling MIGHTILY in the American League. He is marginal in

the NL. Bad signing in my book. But, like I said, I think Hughes if

serviceable (if healthy). I see him as a 4.20 ERA type guy. Which is fine if

we have offense (which we .... ummmm ... kind of don't).

 

***END OF EMAIL***

 

Opinions are opinions. Therefore, I will at least leave this post with what I (once again an opinion) think should happen going forward...

 

Put Nolasco on DL - let him heal. Good, bad, or indifferent, he has to pitch for this team. Bring up Mays and/or Meyer (I'd like to see both). This team is done for the season. We have to let these young guys pitch to MLB hitters to prepare them for next year. Gibson seems to have benefited from this to an extent. Cut bait on Correia at the deadline which leaves us with:

 

Nolasco

Gibson

Hughes

Meyer

Mays

 

And just to confirm that I don't know what I'm talking about - here is another email sent on 2 JAN 2014 to the same guy (unedited) about the offense (in response to an email about how "awesome the Twins will be this year)...

 

***EMAIL***

 

LF - Willingham - 20HR but will be on DL too often to matter

CF - Hicks - can't hit ... at all

RF - Kubel, Parmalee, Collabello, Arcia - who knows, but "none" of them can/will hit. Arcia is a 20% chance of being "awesome"

3B - Plouffe - 20HR, but can't hit

SS - Florimon - can't hit

2B - Dozier - 15HR .250

1B - Mauer - .324, 15HR 50RBI (who will be on base to bat in?)

CA - Pinto - who knows at all. LESS than 10% chance to be "awesome"

 

So, the starting pitching (I think) will do fine. They won't be league best, but we should be adequate. But, it doesn't do

any good to have a guy pitchign with a 1.17WHIP and a 3.56 ERA and finish the season 7-16 because the team can't score more

than two runs a game. This offense is absolutely horrible.

 

So, providing they're healthy, we have THREE (yes, 3) guys of the starting 8 who can hit a baseball. That's - not - good

 

***END OF EMAIL***