The Dump List

[Lakeside]

I think you have to eventually get rid of Kubel, Colabello, and Hicks. . . you just cannot have guys striking out 35% of their at bats and think you can win with offense.

 

Eventually I think Plouffe could be a corner outfielder with Parmelee and or Arcia. Vargas has hit at every level ala Revere and will hit in the majors . . . he should be up soon and be the everyday DH

 

Mauer, Dozier, Santana, Sano, Plouffe, Buxton, Parmelee, Pinto and Vargas is the nucleus for the next three years with Rosario, Hicks, Nunez, Arcia figured in their somewhere.

 

Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, Mays, and one other will be the starting pitching nucleus. I look at Nolasco as a trade deadline candidate either this year or next year to make room for these pitchers. Correiea will be a trade deadline transfer this year.

 

Young kids get stuck in the minors partly because of the free agency timing period. The Twins under Ryan, as compared to McPhail, keep kids down way longer because of this. Viola, for instance, came up on a team much like this years and learned after only 156 innings in the minor leagues. . . Gibson had 425, May has 677, and Meyer already about 250. Time to get 'em up.

[Beezer07]

Am I the only person who's willing to be patient (i.e., give him until May 2015) with Hicks?

[Joe A. Preusser]

To go along with his sub-200 average and sub-300 slugging.

 

Average is very overrated. The slugging is not so worrisome because he's a speed guy. No question he needs to be better, but i judge his ability to contribute at this level mostly by his OBP.

[PseudoSABR]

Average is very overrated. The slugging is not so worrisome because he's a speed guy. No question he needs to be better, but i judge his ability to contribute at this level mostly by his OBP.

Average is overrated in terms of giving a totalizing view of a player's worth. Discretely, Average is still a good (the best?) measure of a player's actual ability to hit major league pitching, which Hicks hasn't shown. If he continues to demonstrate that he can't hit the ball, pitchers will start pitching him more and more in the zone, and he'll stop walking. (A pitcher will only risk walking a batter, if the pitcher believes the guy can hit.) Hicks will either starting getting more hits, which would lead to a wider zone of pitches, and thereby more walks, or Hicks will show he can't and his OBP driven worth will evaporate.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

There's some truth in this. In his last seven days, Colabello has a BABIP of .111. Over his last 14 days, it's just .240.

 

I don't think we'll ever see early April's Chris Colabello again but there's still a good shot he turns into a serviceable DH and backup corner guy.

Eric Pleiss' article explains exactly why his BABIP dropped like a rock very well. Pitchers have figured him out. Maybe he figures it out, but Eric's article posit's it's bat speed. I agree and bat speed is tough to improve

[Monkeypaws]

The guy that seems most replaceable to me is Matt Guerrier.

 

I also think Logan Darnell would be an upgrade on a guy I've defended for too long, Kevin Correia.

[snepp]

Average is very overrated. The slugging is not so worrisome because he's a speed guy. No question he needs to be better, but i judge his ability to contribute at this level mostly by his OBP.

 

Average is overrated yes, but there's no explaining away a sub-200 average. There is a minimum level of putting the bat on the ball required, and he's far short of exceeding it. And the slugging is very worrisome, because major league players cannot continue to post levels that meager.

 

A .600 OPS isn't even acceptable for the majority of bench players, let alone a starter.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

Hicks is on a 5 game hitting streak and has reached base in 7 straight games. I wouldn't say he's turned a corner, but at the very least it's a welcome sight to see and it may boost his confidence a bit. The thing that I've heard people say the most is that he struggles when he is tentative with his swing. A few bloopers falling in for him like they have this week will hopefully give him a little swagger going forward.

[LaBombo]

Am I the only person who's willing to be patient (i.e., give him until May 2015) with Hicks?

You're not the only person wanting the Twins to start him almost every day, level aside. Whether that constitutes patience or prudence for a rebuilding franchise, well, wrong thread.

[LaBombo]

Doing something as simple as cutting out a paper snow flake has caused the mass manufacture of left-handed scissors.

 

Hicks has been attempting to execute arguably the most coordination-intensive athletic activity on earth using his less-coordinated configuration. Yes, many naturally right-handed hitters had successful careers switch hitting, but that number drops when you eliminate non-1b infielders, who have a vested interest in throwing righty and played positions that forgive a lack of hitting.

[cmathewson]

To go along with his sub-200 average and sub-300 slugging.

 

Last 7 games: .400/.526/.467/.993

 

Perhaps it's the start of a trend. Anyway, you don't dump him when he's that hot.

[LaBombo]

Last 7 games: .400/.526/.467/.993

 

Anyway, you don't dump him when he's that hot.

If by "dump" you mean trade, why not? For fear of missing out on more .400/.526/.467 weeks? Not trying to be contrarian, and doubt he has much trade value even now, but wouldn't trading him now be the exact polar opposite of dumping a player whose value to the future is sketchy at best?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think you have to eventually get rid of Kubel, Colabello, and Hicks. . . you just cannot have guys striking out 35% of their at bats and think you can win with offense.

 

Eventually I think Plouffe could be a corner outfielder with Parmelee and or Arcia. Vargas has hit at every level ala Revere and will hit in the majors . . . he should be up soon and be the everyday DH

 

Mauer, Dozier, Santana, Sano, Plouffe, Buxton, Parmelee, Pinto and Vargas is the nucleus for the next three years with Rosario, Hicks, Nunez, Arcia figured in their somewhere.

Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, Mays, and one other will be the starting pitching nucleus. I look at Nolasco as a trade deadline candidate either this year or next year to make room for these pitchers. Correiea will be a trade deadline transfer this year.

 

Young kids get stuck in the minors partly because of the free agency timing period. The Twins under Ryan, as compared to McPhail, keep kids down way longer because of this. Viola, for instance, came up on a team much like this years and learned after only 156 innings in the minor leagues. . . Gibson had 425, May has 677, and Meyer already about 250. Time to get 'em up.

if by next three years you mean 2016 and on, you might be right, except that not all of the prospects will work out and some of the veterans will move on. Think 60% will still be here and then figure out your plan. Either Buxton or Sano will not make it, most likely due to injury.

[snepp]

Let's make it the last 3 games instead, much more impressive.

 

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table]

[TD=align: right].500[/TD]

[TD=align: right].600[/TD]

[TD=align: right].625[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.225[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[Guest USAFChief]

Let's make it the last 3 games instead, much more impressive.

 

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table]

[TD=align: right].500[/TD]

[TD=align: right].600[/TD]

[TD=align: right].625[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1.225[/TD]

[/TABLE]

It's quite possible Antony already missed the opportunity to get him signed to an extension.

[Guest USAFChief]

In all seriousness though, IMO it's in the Twins best interests to let Hicks play CF every day for at least another couple hundred PAs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

In all seriousness though, IMO it's in the Twins best interests to let Hicks play CF every day for at least another couple hundred PAs.

 

Given their lack of options and the fact that he's been playing much better, may as well roll him out there and see what happens.

[LaBombo]

Average is overrated yes, but there's no explaining away a sub-200 average. There is a minimum level of putting the bat on the ball required, and he's far short of exceeding it. And the slugging is very worrisome, because major league players cannot continue to post levels that meager.

 

A .600 OPS isn't even acceptable for the majority of bench players, let alone a starter.

His Babip is 30 points higher than last year, but his K rate is only one percent lower, at just over 25 percent. Tough to push the average very high when you fail to make contact in one of every four PA's.

 

It will be interesting to see if he can sustain the improved walk rate with such a low batting average. You'd think that at some point opposing managers would start fining their pitchers for walking a .200 hitter with very little power...

[Beezer07]

In all seriousness though, IMO it's in the Twins best interests to let Hicks play CF every day for at least another couple hundred PAs.

 

I totally agree. And I think this is as close to a "nothing to lose" situation as you can get.

[DaveW]

[stringer bell]

With Kubel officially let go today, I'm going to put forward another dump list. Not all should or will go, but I think the roster needs a bit of a kick start.

 

1) Aaron Hicks. By dump I mean option. I understand Hicks missed the game today with a bit of a sore shoulder, perhaps from challenging the wall recently. I have stated long and loud that he needs to go back to Rochester and learn to try to hit against right handers. I think his window of opportunity is less than a year.

 

2) Chris Parmelee--Since a strong start, Parm has almost been as close to an automatic out as Kubel, but he's a better defender and can play first base. Taking him off the roster means DFAing him and even if he clears, he could elect to be a free agent.

 

3) Kevin Correia--An aging veteran who has been bad and whose ceiling is mediocre. There are replacements waiting in Rochester.

 

4) Jared Burton--He has given up too many homers and is another mid-30s veteran. He's lost velocity, making his secondary pitches more hittable.

 

5) Matt Guerrier--Aging veteran who never had great stuff. Peripherals don't look promising.

 

6) Josmil Pinto--Since Morales was acquired, Pinto figures to lose any DH at-bats he might have gotten. He hasn't hit much lately and he has struggled with throwing from the catcher position. Suzuki has held up well so far, so it is possible the Pinto could be replaced by a low-ceiling backup catcher.

[pierre75275]

I sort of agree with your list. If u option hicks and pinto ur looking at hermann and fryer as most likely options or fuld and herman. i would rather keep hicks instead of parmalee and get rid of burton for archer and bring up may for KC. if deduno has issue let him pitch out of the pen and bring up one of johnson meyer or darnell

[Paul Pleiss]

With Kubel officially let go today, I'm going to put forward another dump list. Not all should or will go, but I think the roster needs a bit of a kick start.

 

1) Aaron Hicks. By dump I mean option. I understand Hicks missed the game today with a bit of a sore shoulder, perhaps from challenging the wall recently. I have stated long and loud that he needs to go back to Rochester and learn to try to hit against right handers. I think his window of opportunity is less than a year.

 

2) Chris Parmelee--Since a strong start, Parm has almost been as close to an automatic out as Kubel, but he's a better defender and can play first base. Taking him off the roster means DFAing him and even if he clears, he could elect to be a free agent.

 

3) Kevin Correia--An aging veteran who has been bad and whose ceiling is mediocre. There are replacements waiting in Rochester.

 

4) Jared Burton--He has given up too many homers and is another mid-30s veteran. He's lost velocity, making his secondary pitches more hittable.

 

5) Matt Guerrier--Aging veteran who never had great stuff. Peripherals don't look promising.

 

6) Josmil Pinto--Since Morales was acquired, Pinto figures to lose any DH at-bats he might have gotten. He hasn't hit much lately and he has struggled with throwing from the catcher position. Suzuki has held up well so far, so it is possible the Pinto could be replaced by a low-ceiling backup catcher.

 

I like just about everything here except sending Hicks to AAA. Even when Fuld comes back, I don't think a combination of Fuld/Santana is the right mix for CF. I keep saying this all over all the forums, but let Hicks figure it out. He's getting on base, and as long as he keeps doing that there's no reason you cant send him out to CF and let him get his ABs at the bottom of the lineup.

[Marta Shearing]

1. Send Hicks down when Fuld returns. Now Hicks is even missing games with aches and pains. He just doesn't get it yet. Probably never will. I'm happy to make Santana the permanent CF until Buxton gets here.

 

2. Parmelee deserves to be sent down, but I don't know who will take his place. Might as well keep him around...for now.

 

3. Correia will never fetch anything in a trade. Release him now. Call up May.

 

4. Deduno-when Meyer is safely past the super 2 call him up and send Deduno to the bullpen and release Burton.

 

5. Suzuki and Pinto can catch 60/40. Makes no sense to send Pinto down.

 

6. Guerrier can hang around until Tonkin figures it out.

[kab21]

Pinto shouldn't be sent down. He's 25 and the Twins are trying to win right now. They have a better chance if Pinto is up instead of Fryer/Herrman and it's not like Pinto is just sitting around spitting sunflower seeds on his days off. Regardless of what people think there is a lot to learn about being an MLB'er beyond the AB's. Especially for a catcher.

 

I would like to see Hicks down for 1-2 months hitting everyday. In this case Hicks really does need AB's against RHP's.

 

Correia and Burton. good bye. May and ? can come up.

 

Deduno - I'm okay with him for another month. I also don't like turning over too much of the rotation too quickly. If nobody gets injured, May does well (not a given) and Meyer forces the issue during the next month then something can happen.

 

Parmelee - there isn't anybody decent to send up so he can stay. I wouldn't be shocked if he turned into a solid role player.

[stringer bell]

Pinto was sent down and it looks like Hicks is either going on the DL or being optioned. Who's left and who are the replacements? 1) As much sound and fury as was created around Pinto, the acquisition of Morales stakes Parm to the bench. Parmelee might pinch hit in Colorado in a month, but it's hard to see him getting many starts going forward. Except for the inter-league series, I will actually say I'd rather see a relief pitcher (can't believe I actually wrote that). I guess Parm has to adapt and become a bench player a la Randy Bush or he's done as a Twin. 2) Jared Burton--40% of the season is in the books and Burton still has an ERA over 6. He could be used the same all year, not allow a run and still have an ERA far above his 2011 number. I think he's done. 3) Matt Guerrier--Keep him around until he gets knocked around (it will happen) because he has both no future and no value. There are a lot of candidates to replace the relief pitchers--it would be a good story to give Pino a chance and he could serve as a long man. The other thought is to exile one of the starters to the 'pen and call up May, Johnson or Darnell. If I'm betting, I put my money on Johnson.

[kab21]

Parmelee's future with the Twins is being able to take advantage of an AB here and a game there to show that he has some talent. He will certainly be glued to the bench for awhile (and deserves to be) but Willy, Mauer and Morales (maybe Arcia) will need days off. Right now the bench consists of Nunez, a backup C, and likely Fuld. that shouldn't be mission impossible to work his way to the top of that heap. He has dug himself a pretty big hole though.

 

Larkin/Bush is an optimistic future upside at this point. He's a lefty so he could be fairly valuable if he could hit decently in a limited role. I'm guessing that he's DFA'd by the end of the month though.

 

The Twins have literally no hitters left on the 40 man roster to call up after Pinto. Herrmann, Fryer, Colabello and Vargas. Kepler and Polanco have no shot at being called up. Mastro or Rosario (DOrtiz possibly) will likely see time but need to be added to the 40 man (not mission impossible).

[nicksaviking]

The Twins have literally no hitters left on the 40 man roster to call up after Pinto. Herrmann, Fryer, Colabello and Vargas. Kepler and Polanco have no shot at being called up. Mastro or Rosario (DOrtiz possibly) will likely see time but need to be added to the 40 man (not mission impossible).

 

I know there has been a lot of DFA swaps with the Jays, but I don't think we got Mastro back.

[kab21]

I know there has been a lot of DFA swaps with the Jays, but I don't think we got Mastro back.

 

For whatever reason his Toronto (AAA) stats show up on the Rochester statsheet. I thought he was gone also but wasn't keeping that close of watch on the minors this year.

 

But that just reinforces my point further. The Twins have almost nobody left to call up if they jettison Parmelee. Romero would be a nice story sometime. He is getting close to 10 years in the Twins system.

[Willihammer]

4) Jared Burton--He's older, probably not needed with the Twins deep bullpen, and has slipped markedly since his outstanding 2011.

 

I know this is 6 weks old but I'm going to make a late challenge. IMO the low man in the bullpen isn't Burton - its Duensing.

 

One, he's not a LOOGY, at least, that's not how Gardy uses him. Since 2013 he's faced 172 LHBs and 202 RHBs.

 

For his career in relief he's K'd 157 and walked 82 - not even 2:1.

 

His fastball velo is down 1.5 mph over 2013 and with it his SwStr% is down to 7.5% - 12th on the team and worse than all the starters not named Correia.

 

Burton's been rough too but I think he's coming around. He's been 92-93 in recent outings and still gives the impression that he can ring guys up with the slider or splange. I have no confidence in Duensing to get those big strikeouts.