Article: How Much Longer Will Alex Meyer (and Twins Fans) Wait?

[jokin]

Meyer doesn't need to keep throwing shutouts. If he continues to miss bats and walks fewer batters, then he forces a decision. My point is that two starts usually don't provide enough information to make an informed decision. Give him some more time and if he's still completely dominating lineups two weeks from now, then you know he's really on to something and isn't succeeding through a healthy dose of dumb luck and bad lineups.

.

 

Yep. I think 2 more weeks is what's all most of us are asking for, not, promote him YESTERDAY!

 

And in looking at his peripherals and his recent opponents and accounts from Will Middlebrooks, it's more than dumb look going on here. He's more than tripled his INF Fly Out rate from 3.5% to nearly 12% and dropped his LD% from 14.1% to 9.3% meaning teams are having great difficulty making good contact.

[Mike Sixel]

But the changeup is new. He's dominating at a level he didn't show in AA and his new pitch is getting the credit.

 

Again, I'm not against calling up Meyer soon, I simply believe that showing a bit of prudence and letting him pitch a few more innings in AAA isn't going to kill anybody. Let him show that the changeup is real and that he's truly a dominant pitcher.

 

perfectly reasonable stance.....I just don't have the same tolerance for this FO and their willingness to be bad for longer than others do.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And in looking at his peripherals and his recent opponents and accounts from Will Middlebrooks, it's more than dumb look going on here. He's more than tripled his INF Fly Out rate from 3.5% to nearly 12% and dropped his LD% from 14.1% to 9.3% meaning teams are having great difficulty making good contact.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think he's legit. I'll be disappointed if the Twins don't make a move in the next month if he continues this torrid streak of pitching (unless they make a move for Deduno, who pitches well and fills the last rotation spot).

[Otto von Ballpark]

Absolutely. Personally, I think the right move is to dig down and find out why Pelfrey is throwing more fastballs more slowly than any other point in his career. If he's even slightly injured, you replace him with Deduno immediately.

 

Then, if Correia is still struggling in mid-to-late May, then you consider calling up Meyer if he's still dominating.

 

Mostly agree, but Pelfrey has looked so bad already, I'd swap him and Deduno for at least a turn while you try to figure him out. Pelf can get back on track or prove his health from the back of the pen -- he's 4 years removed now from MLB success that would have earned him any more slack than that.

 

And Correia's performance would be a complete non-factor for me -- we know Correia's range as a pitcher exactly, and it's suitable for keeping a spot warm or patching a bad staff. As soon as Meyer or another AAA starter is deemed ready, they should get that spot.

[Mike Sixel]

May 8th is his current opt-out date. Unfortunately I fear Tonkin instead of Burton would be the casualty. Options and all.

 

Why would they care if a 35 year old is on the roster? They have plenty of RP......if they bring up Guerrier, I might lose it. Really, they talk so much about bringing guys up from their stystem, they don't go all in on winning this year, and they are bringing up a 35 year old RP? Mind. Boggling.

[jokin]

May 8th is his current opt-out date. Unfortunately I fear Tonkin instead of Burton would be the casualty. Options and all.

 

Thanks, crarko. Let's hope your fears are unfounded!

 

The pen could be shaping up nicely if Guerrier continues doing well, along with Tonkin.. And Gardy has even kept open the possibility of adding Meyer to the Bullpen corps if the timing isn't right for him to become a starter.

[Dman]

Gotta say I like seeing the Meyer K's. 11 K's a game is something you don't typically see from a Twins pitcher and that is very exciting. If he has a couple more dominant starts it is going to be very, very hard to keep him down on the farm.

 

I don't like the walks though and I think AAA is still the place for him to be. I still think Meyer needs to show a little more control before being called up. The walks will kill him in MLB and he might as well straighten that out in AAA.

 

I am with other posters who would like to see Deduno replace Pelfrey. If Correia can't pull it together in the next 3 starts or so then let's make a move to Meyer, Darnell or Johnson.

 

As excited as I am I don't see a need to rush him. If he remains consistently this good then June or July works for me. I also think there is a good chance that Pelfrey and Correia turn things around once the weather warms up a little. Time will tell and I doubt the Twins will promote him unless he continue's to dominate and lowers the walk rate.

[jokin]

Why would they care if a 35 year old is on the roster? They have plenty of RP......if they bring up Guerrier, I might lose it. Really, they talk so much about bringing guys up from their stystem, they don't go all in on winning this year, and they are bringing up a 35 year old RP? Mind. Boggling.

 

If Guerrier returns to any semblance of his old form, we can talk more about winning this year, whether or not the Twins went all in. Burton is also a 30+ guy and it appears that the sand has run out of his hourglass- you're just swapping one for another. And speaking of swapping, if Guerrier does well, the Twins might be able to trade him for a prospect down the road.

 

Who else appears ready for the pen at this ponit?

[Otto von Ballpark]

But the changeup is new. He's dominating at a level he didn't show in AA and his new pitch is getting the credit.

 

Is he really? If you look at his overall AAA numbers this year, they're a pretty close match for his AA numbers from last year, given league context.

 

And isn't "show that the changeup is real and that he's truly a dominant pitcher" a pretty high bar? The new changeup could be nothing and render him not dominant, but still a much better pitcher than Kevin Correia. That's really the bar -- they don't want to call him up if they think they will have to send him back down again. And he should only have to go back down if he's worse than Kevin Correia.

 

I mostly agree with you, a couple weeks won't really hurt, but how much are they going to benefit? If he is a little less than dominant, or has to fiddle a bit with the changeup, does that push his MLB arrival back to June? July?

 

Correia is basically a professional placeholder. If he has any value to a good team, it should be that he can go between starting and long relief as needed.

[Halsey Hall]

I mentioned this spring to Gene Glynn he'd have a better rotation this year than the Twins did last season. It looks as though he has a better one this year. Any of the top four have to be thinking they could be the next called up. What a great competition, and good pitching down there is breeding good pitching. If the Red Wings had the luck the Twins have had being given runs this year they'd be way out in front of the league.

 

Let these guys feed off each other and the Twins rotation work into some warmer weather to see what shakes loose. The Twins are having some uncanny luck winning games so far in a young season, but don't stand a chance of hanging with the Tigers IMO. I've got no idea who will, or should be the first called up, but I doubt it'll happen til later in June barring injuries. By the end of the year, who knows, maybe all four will get their chance of pitching up here. I wouldn't mind seeing what they could do at this level going into next season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Is he really? If you look at his overall AAA numbers this year, they're a pretty close match for his AA numbers from last year, given league context.

 

And isn't "show that the changeup is real and that he's truly a dominant pitcher" a pretty high bar? The new changeup could be nothing and render him not dominant, but still a much better pitcher than Kevin Correia. That's really the bar -- they don't want to call him up if they think they will have to send him back down again. And he should only have to go back down if he's worse than Kevin Correia.

 

I mostly agree with you, a couple weeks won't really hurt, but how much are they going to benefit? If he is a little less than dominant, or has to fiddle a bit with the changeup, does that push his MLB arrival back to June? July?

 

Correia is basically a professional placeholder. If he has any value to a good team, it should be that he can go between starting and long relief as needed.

 

A lot of variables going on here. At some point, it becomes a chicken/egg situation. If Correia is holding his own, do you waste potential trade value by dumping him for nothing? If you hold onto him too long, are you sacrificing a competitive team for one guy's trade value? It's going to be hard to give up on Correia entirely if he's hovering around league-average numbers. I hope they do it (or at least aggressively push to trade him ASAP, even at a discounted price), I'm just not sure they will... and with the current roster crunch, I don't see how they keep both Correia and Pelfrey on the roster and replace them with Meyer from Rochester and Deduno from the bullpen.

 

As for Meyer, he's giving up fewer hits and he's striking out more hitters at a higher level. No one stat is enormously better than his AA numbers but when combined, they make him look more dominant.

[jokin]

A lot of variables going on here. At some point, it becomes a chicken/egg situation. If Correia is holding his own, do you waste potential trade value by dumping him for nothing? If you hold onto him too long, are you sacrificing a competitive team for one guy's trade value? It's going to be hard to give up on Correia entirely if he's hovering around league-average numbers. I hope they do it, I'm just not sure they will... and with the current roster crunch, I don't see how they keep both Correia and Pelfrey on the roster and replace them with Meyer from Rochester and Deduno from the bullpen.

 

As for Meyer, he's giving up fewer hits and he's striking out more hitters at a higher level. No one stat is enormously better than his AA numbers but when combined, they make him look more dominant.

 

Except my aforementioned dramatic increase in INF flyout rate and LD% drop- while jumping a skill level- these really demonstrate how unhittable Meyer is becoming, literally right before our eyes.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't like the walks though and I think AAA is still the place for him to be. I still think Meyer needs to show a little more control before being called up. The walks will kill him in MLB and he might as well straighten that out in AAA.

 

Yeah, walking 3.7 per 9 will kill you in MLB. Just look at.... Mike Pelfrey! (career 3.3 BB/9)

 

I think the focus on his walk rate is a little much. MLB league rate is 3.4 BB/9. Meyer has always been at 3.7 or lower. Max Scherzer was walking that many in the minors too, and continued his first 2+ MLB seasons. When you have a double-digit K rate, you don't have to be a walk rate master -- mid-3's BB/9 is more than acceptable.

 

Of course it would be nice to see them go down, but at his current level, it absolutely should not be a requirement for his promotion. Pitchers have to refine and adapt at the MLB level too, so you don't need to be a perfectly finished product. My fear is he could be kept in AAA for that reason, or to start pitching deeper into games, etc. -- stuff that doesn't really prevent him from effectively getting batters out and being an improvement over Correia (or Pelfrey).

[cmathewson]

A lot of variables going on here. At some point, it becomes a chicken/egg situation. If Correia is holding his own, do you waste potential trade value by dumping him for nothing? If you hold onto him too long, are you sacrificing a competitive team for one guy's trade value? It's going to be hard to give up on Correia entirely if he's hovering around league-average numbers. I hope they do it (or at least aggressively push to trade him ASAP, even at a discounted price), I'm just not sure they will... and with the current roster crunch, I don't see how they keep both Correia and Pelfrey on the roster and replace them with Meyer from Rochester and Deduno from the bullpen.

 

 

Correia's trade value will never be much, perhaps a fringe low-level minor leaguer like Sulbarran. No big whoop.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Except my aforementioned dramatic increase in INF flyout rate and LD% drop- while jumping a skill level- these really demonstrate how unhittable Meyer is becoming, literally right before our eyes.

 

True, though I used the quick-and-dirty stat of hits allowed to point out the same thing... Not as precise as your analysis but it reaches the same conclusion.

[Dantes929]

"Amen, SD. I bet that you'll get the "gotta worry about the long term, like next year or after" response though" Mocking it doesn't discredit it. I want the Twins to think mid term and long term just as I would wish our government to do because I hope to still be here in the mid and long term. I contend that Smith was more the GM that the fans wanted. " Fans want to win now so lets fill our short term need for a corner outfielder and get Young for a fairly rare talent in Garza". " Fans want to sacrifice prospects to give us a better shot at winning now so lets see if Capps can get us over the hump and give up Ramos", "Fans are tired of just winning divisions and want us to do something different so lets get this Japanese guy" Ok, my contention is that Smith was more the fans type of GM but admit he did a poor job of it. Ryan is more of a long term guy which is why we are having the Meyer discussion in the first place. I have seen tons of comments that bemoan the fact that we have had to play Hicks when we could have had Span playing for the last year instead. If Meyer is who we want him to be I know no one is going to say "Yeah, Meyer is a Cy Young now but we could have had Span instead of Hicks in center back in 2012." but I wonder if anyone will give the Twins credit for thinking longer term. Sorry for the Snark but its not so ridiculous to wait longer than one month to judge performances. Also, Meyer's ERA in the minors is still worse than Blackburn's, Hendrik's and Slowey's was. How will 3.48 ERA in the minors translate to the big leagues? Two more weeks working in games that matter but matter less to work on the changeup isn't going to hurt anyone.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Correia's trade value will never be much, perhaps a fringe low-level minor leaguer like Sulbarran. No big whoop.

 

I think you're underselling what capable starting pitching is worth, even if its ceiling is mediocrity.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Also, Meyer's ERA in the minors is still worse than Blackburn's, Hendrik's and Slowey's was. How will 3.48 ERA in the minors translate to the big leagues? Two more weeks working in games that matter but matter less to work on the changeup isn't going to hurt anyone.

 

It's really best to pretend that ERA doesn't exist when examining MiLB pitchers. Bad fielding, bad fields, and sloppy play is the name of the game a lot of the time in the minor leagues.

 

You're better served by looking at strikeout rate, walk rate, LD/GB%, and other such statistics. They tell a much more accurate story.

[jokin]

"Amen, SD. I bet that you'll get the "gotta worry about the long term, like next year or after" response though" Mocking it doesn't discredit it. I want the Twins to think mid term and long term just as I would wish our government to do because I hope to still be here in the mid and long term. I contend that Smith was more the GM that the fans wanted. " Fans want to win now so lets fill our short term need for a corner outfielder and get Young for a fairly rare talent in Garza". " Fans want to sacrifice prospects to give us a better shot at winning now so lets see if Capps can get us over the hump and give up Ramos", "Fans are tired of just winning divisions and want us to do something different so lets get this Japanese guy" Ok, my contention is that Smith was more the fans type of GM but admit he did a poor job of it. Ryan is more of a long term guy which is why we are having the Meyer discussion in the first place. I have seen tons of comments that bemoan the fact that we have had to play Hicks when we could have had Span playing for the last year instead. If Meyer is who we want him to be I know no one is going to say "Yeah, Meyer is a Cy Young now but we could have had Span instead of Hicks in center back in 2012." but I wonder if anyone will give the Twins credit for thinking longer term. Sorry for the Snark but its not so ridiculous to wait longer than one month to judge performances. Also, Meyer's ERA in the minors is still worse than Blackburn's, Hendrik's and Slowey's was. How will 3.48 ERA in the minors translate to the big leagues?

 

ERA is far from the best stat to assess pitching potential. Having said that, Meyer's current ERA is 2.70, not 3.48 (updated with last night's performance) and a better measure, Meyer's SIERA is at 2.71, confirming his ERA and potential to maintain dominant numbers. But it's the underlying peripherals that flesh out why we can discriminate between what Slowey, Albers or Walters were doing at AAA versus what Meyer's potential ceiling might be. He really has Randy Johnson potential, the other guys....not so much.

[Brandon]

1. There's no rush. We still have 140 games in the season. Better to wait till there's fewer games to burn a starting pitcher option. If we put Deduno and Meyer in the rotation then have an injury or 2 with 80 games left, we could end up with retreads in the rotation worse then what we have now... Although if our starters keep pitching this way it probably won't matter if we replace them sooner or later.

 

2. The comment about 35 year old Guerrier doesn't hold. If you can get outs then you can get outs it doesn't matter if your 25 or 45. The only way I see him coming up with the way our bullpen is pitching is if Burton implodes or injury. otherwise there are teams with bullpen issues he can go to after May 8th. I think Detroit is one of them.

 

I don't think Hicks has the ceiling of Meyer so bringing him up early doesn't have the cost consequence that Meyer could. The Twins should wait till June to bring him up. Meyer should work on his new pitch with his instructors and work on his control. I do think he could come up now and be an improvement but leaving him down for 30-40 more days is not the end of the world.

[Dantes929]

"Pelfrey, second half of 2013, had roughly a 92 ERA+ and averaged less than 5.5 IP per start. Better than his first half, but not sure if I'd call that "quite good". Certainly shouldn't guarantee him much slack in 2014.' Take a way a bad September which could reasonably be attributed to fatigue after a year off and you have 3 months and 14 starts which saw his ERA go from 6.66 to 4.86 and include 8 quality starts. I would say that was good. If you look at his career by months you will see Pelfrey typically has bad starts and gets better as it warms up. I thought it was reasonable that he would be better this year and still think that though the thought did occur to me that he should start in the minors or bullpen and then enter the rotation in the warmer months. No one ever expected him to quite good but expecting him to be ok or pretty good was and is reasonable.

[DJL44]

I think you're underselling what capable starting pitching is worth, even if its ceiling is mediocrity.

 

Correia is a mediocre pitcher who is being paid market value. There is little marginal value there.

[Mike Sixel]

Meyer is 24....they own his rights until he is 30. Worrying about something more than 6 years from now? They have no idea what the world will be like then. That holds no water for me at all.

 

The 35 year old thing is about using your minor league system, and the players it develops. There are plenty of RP in the minors that could pitch here. People want to to hold Meyer down for the future, but don't want RP to come up and be part of the future?

 

"rush" is a loaded word, that states that bringing him up is bad. That's a tautology...frankly.

[stringer bell]

I haven't read all of the thread, but I sure would like to see Meyer go deeper in games. It looks like when he's sharp, he can get through 6 innings on 100 pitches, and when he is less than sharp, he doesn't even see the sixth. That said, how can we not be excited about a guy who throws hard, is young, and strikes guys out?

[DJL44]

Take a way a bad September which could reasonably be attributed to fatigue after a year off and you have 3 months and 14 starts which saw his ERA go from 6.66 to 4.86 and include 8 quality starts. I would say that was good. If you look at his career by months you will see Pelfrey typically has bad starts and gets better as it warms up.

 

I have the solution - don't start Pelfrey again until July!

[Otto von Ballpark]

A lot of variables going on here. At some point, it becomes a chicken/egg situation. If Correia is holding his own, do you waste potential trade value by dumping him for nothing? If you hold onto him too long, are you sacrificing a competitive team for one guy's trade value? It's going to be hard to give up on Correia entirely if he's hovering around league-average numbers. I hope they do it (or at least aggressively push to trade him ASAP, even at a discounted price), I'm just not sure they will... and with the current roster crunch, I don't see how they keep both Correia and Pelfrey on the roster and replace them with Meyer from Rochester and Deduno from the bullpen.

 

Correia's career *best* is league average starter with poor peripherals. His average/floor is notably worse than that. And he's 33 years old and off to the worst season start of his career. And $5 mil, in modern MLB, is not a investment you have to try getting value back at all costs.

 

They did cut Marquis and eat $3 million salary, but they also gave him 7 starts with an ERA over 8. (And they actually cut him with fewer ready replacements than we have now.) That was similar to that stats of Silva and Lohse upon their original demotions in 2006. That's too high or a bar for suckitude, though, IMHO.

 

I definitely don't want another Mays, Reed, or Livan Hernandez situation, where they can coast until July/August with a 5+ ERA, whereupon if we're still in the race we will make a move. Correia and Pelfrey are arguably worse (or are further removed from MLB success) than those guys too (although outside of Reed's control, they all had universally poor peripherals -- shouldn't be afraid to cut guys like that, or better yet, don't guarantee them money in the first place!).

 

If we are looking at a 12-13 man bullpen anyway, they could both be in the back of the pen for awhile. If you can't DL Pelfrey, I'd hate to send down Tonkin, but he's being sub-optimally deployed like a back of the pen guy right now anyway. And if they can't cut it in the pen either, the decision to cut bait would be even easier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Correia is a mediocre pitcher who is being paid market value. There is little marginal value there.

 

Except that contending teams in June can't go buy Kevin Correia on the open market. If they need back of the rotation help, they have to trade for it.

 

Will it get the Twins a great prospect? Absolutely not, but it should land them a low minors guy with some upside.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think you're underselling what capable starting pitching is worth, even if its ceiling is mediocrity.

 

What's a good comparable for Correia, in terms of trade asset? Hernandez and Ortiz were definitely both "ceiling is mediocrity" guys, similar age to Correia, and we were lucky to dump their salaries. We couldn't even do that for Marquis.

 

 

Will it get the Twins a great prospect? Absolutely not, but it should land them a low minors guy with some upside.

 

Feel free to list your Correia trade comparables here -- I think you may be over-rating Correia's record (or under-rating the records of pitchers who have netted such return in trade).

[Dantes929]

jokin, I am not anti Meyer by any means and agree that ERA is relevant but not conclusive especially in the short term. It still is the stat I look at first and can't help but notice that there are 3 starters at Rochester that had a lower ERA before yesterday. I didn't think he was due to pitch yesterday so afraid I was not up to date. Doesn't change much. 6-10 starts is reasonable to judge performance both for Meyer and the guys in the rotation with the Twins. Few agree with me but I thought Pelfrey pitched well his last time out and gave up some cheap runs. He had good movement and kept the ball low. If he gets rocked his next time and Meyer has another great start I probably have a different view.

[Otto von Ballpark]

" Take a way a bad September which could reasonably be attributed to fatigue after a year off and you have 3 months and 14 starts which saw his ERA go from 6.66 to 4.86 and include 8 quality starts.

 

Ah, the old "throw out his bad games, and he was good!" routine.

 

I too was encouraged by his 2013 progression, enough to bring him back. But his performance, and career record, were modest enough to not warrant a pay raise and a two-year contract, much less a guaranteed spot for the foreseeable future.