Acquiring established top of the rotation pitching is the hardest thing a FO can do.

21 hours ago, ashbury said:

Acquiring established top of the rotation pitching is the hardest thing a FO can do.

I don’t expect the Twins to trade for a number 1 starter.  I am hoping they can find a low #2 or #3 starter who can through a mid 3 ERA and get atleast 150 innings for us.  I don’t want the Twins to need to dig too much into our depth as we have many good things in place already.

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

I don’t expect the Twins to trade for a number 1 starter.  I am hoping they can find a low #2 or #3 starter who can through a mid 3 ERA and get atleast 150 innings for us.  I don’t want the Twins to need to dig too much into our depth as we have many good things in place already.

There were only 34 pitchers in baseball who threw 150+ innings and had an ERA under 4 last year. If we put the cutoff at 3.70 or lower (I think that'd count as mid-3 ERA) you're down to 26. I think you're describing pretty close to a #1 while saying they're a #2 or 3.

As to the original post, I think a lot of this comes down to what you think Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland are, or are likely to be. I think Paddack is the most talented of those 4 so he's the guy you have to hope becomes a legit playoff caliber starter. I don't think any of the other 3 are likely to be better than a #3 or 4 guy in a playoff rotation. If that's the case I think there's a real need to add someone who's a more sure thing above those 4 guys to partner with Lopez as guys you feel comfortable going into seasons with as guys who can start games 1 and 2 of a playoff series. Then you're looking at having the rest of those guys fight it out to be the 3 and 4 guys in your playoff rotation while being able to put someone like Varland in the pen where he may be an even better weapon moving forward as the depth guys continue to push for rotation spots.

I like that there's finally some guys who look like legit MLB pitchers here, and on their way (hopefully soon). But I don't know that I see quality playoff pitchers in that bunch, and that needs to start being the standard. We've built the floor, and now it's time to raise the ceiling. 

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There were only 34 pitchers in baseball who threw 150+ innings and had an ERA under 4 last year. If we put the cutoff at 3.70 or lower (I think that'd count as mid-3 ERA) you're down to 26. I think you're describing pretty close to a #1 while saying they're a #2 or 3.

As to the original post, I think a lot of this comes down to what you think Ryan, Ober, Paddack, and Varland are, or are likely to be. I think Paddack is the most talented of those 4 so he's the guy you have to hope becomes a legit playoff caliber starter. I don't think any of the other 3 are likely to be better than a #3 or 4 guy in a playoff rotation. If that's the case I think there's a real need to add someone who's a more sure thing above those 4 guys to partner with Lopez as guys you feel comfortable going into seasons with as guys who can start games 1 and 2 of a playoff series. Then you're looking at having the rest of those guys fight it out to be the 3 and 4 guys in your playoff rotation while being able to put someone like Varland in the pen where he may be an even better weapon moving forward as the depth guys continue to push for rotation spots.

I like that there's finally some guys who look like legit MLB pitchers here, and on their way (hopefully soon). But I don't know that I see quality playoff pitchers in that bunch, and that needs to start being the standard. We've built the floor, and now it's time to raise the ceiling. 

There are #2 and #3 starters who can have a good season and improve.  Gray was not an ace when we got him.  But yes I am saying we look for someone who can help in the playoffs but maybe not as the #1 starter.  Not a starter in the top 20 but maybe in the 21-60 range.  Does that help explain the type of pitcher we should be targeting?

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

There are #2 and #3 starters who can have a good season and improve.  Gray was not an ace when we got him.  But yes I am saying we look for someone who can help in the playoffs but maybe not as the #1 starter.  Not a starter in the top 20 but maybe in the 21-60 range.  Does that help explain the type of pitcher we should be targeting?

I think 21-60 is a really big range, but a lot of this is just semantics. It's hard to really know what everyone means by ace, or #1 pitcher, or any of the numbers we assign to pitchers. I think we probably mostly agree here, it's just that I define the numbers differently than you.

Really I just care about legit playoff starters who you start as many games as you can (extra off days changes things), guys you're ok starting playoff games here and there, and guys you really don't want starting playoff games. The numbers we assign probably make that more complicated, but I think we agree that it's about getting guys you're happy to give the ball to in October. 

I agree with all of this, and I think the focus should be to acquire a starter (instead of labels of 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5) go with, would you be comfortable with that starter starting a playoff game or not?

I guess that's my baseline for what they need to do.

I am comfortable with Ryan and Ober in that role, behind Lopez. IF Paddack looks anything like he did in October, I might actually put him ahead of Ryan or Ober.

That said, I want to get someone who can be a step ahead of them. And I really like those 3.

Doesn't have to be a #2 or #3. I just want to feel confident at playoff time that the starters we have are playoff caliber.

11 hours ago, Brandon said:

I don’t expect the Twins to trade for a number 1 starter.  I am hoping they can find a low #2 or #3 starter who can through a mid 3 ERA and get atleast 150 innings for us.  I don’t want the Twins to need to dig too much into our depth as we have many good things in place already.

Who trades a #2 or #3 starter w/o some very attractive pieces in return? We traded a batting champ for Lopez (essentially Miami’s #3 guy long-term). So we need to kick up some high end prospects or forget it - nothing’s free.

The only starting pitchers that might be traded that have that kind of ability are one year rentals. I don’t like this as we need to give up too much with high end risk due to just one season. Burnes & Glasnow, even if we committed the trade capital, cost $14-$15M & $25M this year & then they’ll walk.

If the Brewers want to re-tool (trading Burnes, maybe Adammes, & Woodruff is hurt) they may follow through with what was put in print a month ago, & field offers for Devin Williams? If we commit to the proper package we can have him in 55 - 60 games affecting the outcome - 2 years - $6.25M in ‘24. Our Pen is elite!

If we trade Polanco, $$ are available for a middling FA like Lugo for the rotation & our depth is golden.

6 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I agree with all of this, and I think the focus should be to acquire a starter (instead of labels of 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5) go with, would you be comfortable with that starter starting a playoff game or not?

I guess that's my baseline for what they need to do.

I am comfortable with Ryan and Ober in that role, behind Lopez. IF Paddack looks anything like he did in October, I might actually put him ahead of Ryan or Ober.

That said, I want to get someone who can be a step ahead of them. And I really like those 3.

Doesn't have to be a #2 or #3. I just want to feel confident at playoff time that the starters we have are playoff caliber.

Well said!

Lugo - Wacha - etc. would be adequate to provide us with enough depth to push through the season. Enables Twins to ease the load on any guy in the rotation during July/ August.

These guys (FA) are affordable but probably won’t be around for more than another couple weeks.

Completely agree on acquiring the #1 v. #5 guy ……doesn’t matter. Can he pitch in the playoffs and maintain an ERA of 4.00 or better? That’s the target baseline.

Our top 3 guys are capable & completely agree that Paddack showed potential to be the #2 if he can hold up with reasonable health.

Team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts…….he had an effective playoff start & had to pick-off a guy at 2nd to end an inning/rally in that one. Other playoff start was subpar. Gotta be real about what his contribution really was and not just be enamored with his ERA & competitive nature. I get his wins/losses were run support related at times………bottom line is he didn’t shine in the playoffs & Louie Varland can be a .500 pitcher!!

This Front office has shown patience and prudence in their moves. That is a GOOD thing. 

As a small/medium market we are never going to be in on the big dogs but finding good 

trade partners and guys that fit are there specialty. Look at the moves the past few years. 

quality additions... Correa, Farmer, Castro, Taylor, Lopez, Paddock, Stewart are the ones that come 

to mind but am sure there are more... These done while not "giving away the farm". 

I fully expect movement this winter for a starter so Varland can stay in the bullpen. Also expect a

reclamation project he can stash at the minor league level for depth ..... 

I know some think that this if fantasy baseball and just trade this for that on a whim but there '

are a ton of things at play in doing there job... which they do well. Just my opinion

The question is what kind of season are you preparing for? 162 and happy with that result or 184 game season and really happy with that result. Getting 35 starts out of Ober, Ryan, Paddack and Varland isn’t going to happen. An average of 25 each would be pushing it. With that the team would have to count on 2 of the minor league pitchers to step up in development. That is a lot to expect. They need a quality starter. 

The Twins have a strong team. I am agreement that in order to maintain or take another step the ceiling needs to be raised because the floor is solid. How to do that is tricky because any trade of a big name young player will be risky as depth will be reduced. The pitchers being mentioned thus far are on playoff contending teams (Seattle, Milwaukee, Miami), which includes the Twins. Similar to the Twins, these teams will want players who are MLB ready now. While oft named guys like Polanco, Kepler, Farmer, and Vazquez could have some interest it is much more likely we are talking about discussions that identify younger players such as Jeffers, Kirilloff, Miranda, Julien, Lewis, and Lee (near ready). The Twins also hear interest in all of Ryan, Ober, Varland, Duran, and Jax. The Twins are not going to be able to make a convenient trade but a gamble trade may work. I don't expect anything until January or February, and perhaps Falvey just holds the hand in hand.

I am thinking Varland is more bullpen material, so we will need 2 starters to fill the gap.  Maybe one can come from the system, but one or two will have to come from FA or trade. 

Agree with all that the roster in general is solid and the pitching has depth. To improve either pitching or position roster will be difficult and costly. There should only be two types of pitching additions; either a low cost veteran depth starter, or a high quality starter that can pitch in October. I think Paddack has the talent to fill in for Gray as a number 2 playoff starter, but will he be able to pitch in October? Fingers crossed. 
Varland is the other question mark. Is he able to make an adjustment or add a pitch this offseason to take it to a higher level? If not, then he goes to the bullpen and that rotation hole has to be filled and the depth isn’t looking good. 
Those two significant rotation questions make it almost necessary to add a costly, high quality starter. FO has done a good job building depth through out the organization. They may have to use some of the depth as trade capital to get a quality arm like Logan Gilbert. I read the Mariners are looking for a second baseman which matches well with Twins infield depth. 

On 12/13/2023 at 2:11 AM, old nurse said:

The question is what kind of season are you preparing for? 162 and happy with that result or 184 game season and really happy with that result.

That pretty much sums up the situation. We have a good roster right now, and we might be able to win the division again if everyone is healthy and performs as expected, Okay, lots of maybes in that scenario. But if we have any hopes of going further in the playoffs next year, we really need one more "special" arm in the rotation. Otherwise, we are back to the good/bad old days of the Yankees curse again. 

It looks like we have a 1ish and a few 3-4s. Seems to me MN could sacrifice a 3-4 along with a hitter or two to try upgrading a slot to a 1-2.

Something like Ober, Polanco and Mercedes to Seattle for Gilbert and a catching prospect? Or see what Miami needs in exchange for Cabrera/Max Meyer tandem?

I am still hoping we can find a #2 or higher out of the farm system by 2026. 

Who are those possibilities:

1. Canterino (20%) - has the stuff hasn't shown the health or stamina.  

2. Priellip,  (20%) - just like canterino, has the ability and arm looked good early before being shut down again. 

3. Raya (20%) - maybe not quite the ability and questionable health but in the same ballpark.  

4. Hall (30%) - Hall is a pitchers pitcher,  elite in college without elite stuff, if the Twins can improve some velocity he could easily fly through the system.  

5. Festa, Lewis, Culpepper 10% -  All have shown well but most likely just #3 or #4 pitchers in the MLB.  

6. Soto Questad(0%) -  It will take more than 2 years of seasoning.  They are both projects at this point.     

5. Morris SWR (less than 10%).   possibilities here but most likely not #2 type pitchers.  

You have the box of chocolates with the rest of the 2023 draft class.   I think at least 1 to 2 will emerge along with Hall.   

43 minutes ago, Finlander said:

It looks like we have a 1ish and a few 3-4s. Seems to me MN could sacrifice a 3-4 along with a hitter or two to try upgrading a slot to a 1-2.

Something like Ober, Polanco and Mercedes to Seattle for Gilbert and a catching prospect? Or see what Miami needs in exchange for Cabrera/Max Meyer tandem?

On MLB trade rumors it came out today that Seattle isn't really interested in trading their top 4 pitchers.  Maybe they will change their minds, but at this point I am not even considering Seattle as an option at this point.