where to start?  

I think we all knew Gallo would be a low .200 hitter and that Kepler was heading towards being burnt toast, but Buxton AND Correa, yikes!  That's the really hard part to swallow.

On the hitting side, the philosophy the FO seems to embrace has led to a "Total System Failure". Can they admit to this?

5 hours ago, Karbo said:

On the hitting side, the philosophy the FO seems to embrace has led to a "Total System Failure". Can they admit to this?

.500 ball and basically on course to hit their preseason win projection is a "Total System Failure"?

The shape of how the team got here is quite different than anyone expected, but here (meaning wins and losses) is exactly what was expected.

I didn't check the AAA, AA,High A and Low A box scores every night for the last 10 years following our promising young players to watch them pigeon hold in at AAA because management didn't think they would be ready and loaded up with low quality major leaguers. Who sends down the RBI leader {Larnach) for most of the season and Wallner after he was on the biggest hot streak this year and continued to tear it up in AAA for another 10 days straight. 

When you boil it all down, baseball is entertainment. Yes, you try to win the world series every year but people watch baseball for entertainment to get a little respite from  their day to day lives. And how can you squander the best starting pitching staff we have ever had with hitters that have a tough time scoring more than 3 runs a game. Those guys are pitching their asses off while management is fiddling around watching Rome burn.

Let the young guns play, damn it!!! Surround Correa and Buxton with a team of guys that have played together in the minors and are full of enthusiasm. Correa and Buxton are supposed to the leaders but you can't lead when you are mirrored in a slump all year. Maybe a youth movement will inspire them. And I know fans would get much more entertainment watching all of the young guns play .. 

Damn that rant felt good. Really cathartic .... lol

I saw that the Yankees replaced their hitting coach with a retired player that hit over .300 6 times so there are hitting coaches with hitting experience that could help the Twins. It seems like the front office will keep Rocco as manager so let's replace the hitting coach and see if the hitters can improve. What is there to lose since hitters cannot do much worse than they are currently doing.

47 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

.500 ball and basically on course to hit their preseason win projection is a "Total System Failure"?

The shape of how the team got here is quite different than anyone expected, but here (meaning wins and losses) is exactly what was expected.

If after 6 years under Falvine the "expectation" was a .500 team in the putrid Central, then yes, Total System Failure indeed.  It's ok as a fan to dream bigger than ".500 ball" and I'm not interested in giving the FO a pass because their failure to adequately address the roster in the offseason led to downgraded preseason predictions.  

6 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

If after 6 years under Falvine the "expectation" was a .500 team in the putrid Central, then yes, Total System Failure indeed.  It's ok as a fan to dream bigger than ".500 ball" and I'm not interested in giving the FO a pass because their failure to adequately address the roster in the offseason led to downgraded preseason predictions.  

That's an offseason issue, not an in-season issue. In 2023, they are who we thought they were (meaning their record).

They do have a top 5 pitching staff in MLB. I hardly equate that to a Total System Failure. The 2023 Royals are a Total System Failure. The 2021 Nationals were as well. Same with the 2011 to 2016 Twins. 

I'm not willing to throw that term around loosely. I reserve that for when a team severely underperforms expectations and loses 100ish games. This team, and org, is far from that.

That said, the FO made a decisions in the offseason regarding Gallo and Kepler that were very questionable at the time and have backfired is poorly as we all feared. (plus Pagan, though that one has been surprisingly fine)

But not one analyst, local or national, had nothing but glowing prognostications for Buxton, Correa, and to a lesser extent Vazquez, in 2023, as long as they played.

The failure is partially on Falvey for their poor roster management of the outfield in the offseason, but it is more on Buxton and Correa for having the worst season of their respective careers. No matter what Falvey did, nothing would be able to paper over their complete failure as players thus far. If they had played up to projections, or even close to them, the team would likey have 3-4 more wins right now.

So let's call it what it is....a Total Buxton-Correa Failure.

The failure is on the players. They go to the plate, they swing the bat. The players doing the best so far this year are fresh up from the minors. No veteran is having a decent year, let alone good. Maybe these guys just can't adapt to the pitch clock, and need 10 minutes between pitches to get their heads in the at bats.

7 hours ago, Minny505 said:

.500 ball and basically on course to hit their preseason win projection is a "Total System Failure"?

The shape of how the team got here is quite different than anyone expected, but here (meaning wins and losses) is exactly what was expected.

Yes. Those projections while accurate surely did not take into account one of the top pitching staffs starter wise and one of the worst offenses in all of baseball to this point. No prognosticators would have came up with a .500 team if they thought the Twins staff would be as good as it has. Conversely they wouldn't have them at .500 if they knew the hitting would be so poor. 

On 7/11/2023 at 4:30 AM, Karbo said:

On the hitting side, the philosophy the FO seems to embrace has led to a "Total System Failure".

So far all the responses have been "but, but, the pitching."

On the hitting side, I remain at a loss.  Hitters who have been playing the game all their lives suddenly have forgotten how to hit, or else stopped progressing earlier in their careers when at the cusp of real production.

Anyway, "second half moves" need to involve batters.  Simple (and difficult) as that.

18 hours ago, Minny505 said:

That's an offseason issue, not an in-season issue. In 2023, they are who we thought they were (meaning their record).

They do have a top 5 pitching staff in MLB. I hardly equate that to a Total System Failure. The 2023 Royals are a Total System Failure. The 2021 Nationals were as well. Same with the 2011 to 2016 Twins. 

I'm not willing to throw that term around loosely. I reserve that for when a team severely underperforms expectations and loses 100ish games. This team, and org, is far from that.

That said, the FO made a decisions in the offseason regarding Gallo and Kepler that were very questionable at the time and have backfired is poorly as we all feared. (plus Pagan, though that one has been surprisingly fine)

But not one analyst, local or national, had nothing but glowing prognostications for Buxton, Correa, and to a lesser extent Vazquez, in 2023, as long as they played.

The failure is partially on Falvey for their poor roster management of the outfield in the offseason, but it is more on Buxton and Correa for having the worst season of their respective careers. No matter what Falvey did, nothing would be able to paper over their complete failure as players thus far. If they had played up to projections, or even close to them, the team would likey have 3-4 more wins right now.

So let's call it what it is....a Total Buxton-Correa Failure.

Doesn’t matter what the prognosticators say.  The FO is being paid to get the evaluations right and put a winning team together.  Most prognosticators have no clue what they’re talking about.  That’s why they’re prognosticating and haven’t been hired by a team to put a winning team together.

No matter how you want to spin it, everyone is right to be disappointed.  At this point, if they had done their job well, this team should be better.  They didn’t plan for this team to be .500 (a lot of those system failures you’re referring to were intentional rebuilds - were trying to be a contender).  

We’re not exactly waiting in any Uber prospects either.  We have no pitchers in the top 100.  After the draft, we may have 2 hitters barely cracking top 50 lists.  Brooks Lee doesn’t looks like a transformational superstar by any stretch, and Jenking is 5-6 years away.  We’re also weighed down by two large contract for underperforming players.  So, what’s the future here?  Looks pretty damn bleak, from where I’m viewing things.

The cumulative stats tell you we have the league’s top pitching staff in the first half.  That is not sustainable. The absurd starts to the season by multiple guys has already faded and we’ve seen that.  It’s a good starting staff, but there are better ones.  The bullpen is an absolute horror show outside of one, maybe two, guys.

The way they’ve been playing the last couple of months, this wont be a .500 team at year end.  

Those not disappointed with how this is going just have lower expectations.  More power to you.  I wish that’s how I felt, and could just sit down and enjoy watching this mess.

20 hours ago, Minny505 said:

.500 ball and basically on course to hit their preseason win projection is a "Total System Failure"?

The shape of how the team got here is quite different than anyone expected, but here (meaning wins and losses) is exactly what was expected.

Yes I do consider it a failure. With the pitching we have we should be well above that record.

14 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Yes. Those projections while accurate surely did not take into account one of the top pitching staffs starter wise and one of the worst offenses in all of baseball to this point. No prognosticators would have came up with a .500 team if they thought the Twins staff would be as good as it has. Conversely they wouldn't have them at .500 if they knew the hitting would be so poor. 

Escellent comment. To "yes, and" you...

That's how projections work. They take the 50% outcome for everyone and mash them together. It so happens that the pitching is performing at its 90% outcome thus far and the hitting its 10% outcome. Together, they are exactly what projections systems said they would be.

For the rest of the season, I expect both sides to regress to that 50% mark and they likely have a higher Win% due to their strength of schedule, but their BaseRuns Win% stays essentially the same.

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

Yes I do consider it a failure. With the pitching we have we should be well above that record.

Your right. It is a failure, just not a Total System Failure.

The failure is primarily of Buxton, Correa, and Falvey. Those three individuals have completely failed the offense.

With Falvey, we could see it coming in the offseason, primarily with the handling of Gallo and Kepler. If it was Larnach and Wallner in the corners providing the same production, I suspect many fans would be much more forgiving of Falvey.

With Buxton, we all had concerns when it was announced he would only DH. It turned out those concerns were warranted.

Correa was a complete sucker punch. 

2 hours ago, Beast said:

Doesn’t matter what the prognosticators say.  The FO is being paid to get the evaluations right and put a winning team together.  Most prognosticators have no clue what they’re talking about.  That’s why they’re prognosticating and haven’t been hired by a team to put a winning team together.

No matter how you want to spin it, everyone is right to be disappointed.  At this point, if they had done their job well, this team should be better.  They didn’t plan for this team to be .500 (a lot of those system failures you’re referring to were intentional rebuilds - were trying to be a contender).  

We’re not exactly waiting in any Uber prospects either.  We have no pitchers in the top 100.  After the draft, we may have 2 hitters barely cracking top 50 lists.  Brooks Lee doesn’t looks like a transformational superstar by any stretch, and Jenking is 5-6 years away.  We’re also weighed down by two large contract for underperforming players.  So, what’s the future here?  Looks pretty damn bleak, from where I’m viewing things.

The cumulative stats tell you we have the league’s top pitching staff in the first half.  That is not sustainable. The absurd starts to the season by multiple guys has already faded and we’ve seen that.  It’s a good starting staff, but there are better ones.  The bullpen is an absolute horror show outside of one, maybe two, guys.

The way they’ve been playing the last couple of months, this wont be a .500 team at year end.  

Those not disappointed with how this is going just have lower expectations.  More power to you.  I wish that’s how I felt, and could just sit down and enjoy watching this mess.

 

 

This is such a rad comment!!! Thank you.

I guess I am more interested in watching how the art is made, good or bad, than I am in the final result of that art, because I don't really care if it's good or bad. That's where I get my enjoyment. 

Don't get me wrong, I prefer good, but it only raises my level of enjoyment in watching the Twins from an 6 (in those 100 loss seasons) to a 10 (90+ win teams). Right now, as a .500 team, I'm sitting at an 8.

2 hours ago, Minny505 said:

Your right. It is a failure, just not a Total System Failure.

The failure is primarily of Buxton, Correa, and Falvey. Those three individuals have completely failed the offense.

With Falvey, we could see it coming in the offseason, primarily with the handling of Gallo and Kepler. If it was Larnach and Wallner in the corners providing the same production, I suspect many fans would be much more forgiving of Falvey.

With Buxton, we all had concerns when it was announced he would only DH. It turned out those concerns were warranted.

Correa was a complete sucker punch. 

Correa's never been a great offensive player - I'd say he's good to very good (when he's locked in) but he's not going to carry a line-up for long stretches of time. His defense has been gold glove caliber so there's that and if he even slightly rebounds in the second half, his run production will wind up close to his career averages. 

On 7/10/2023 at 3:40 PM, laloesch said:

where to start?  

I think we all knew Gallo would be a low .200 hitter and that Kepler was heading towards being burnt toast, but Buxton AND Correa, yikes!  That's the really hard part to swallow.

………….As well as Miranda & Polanco stinking it up or not being available! Vazquez down year at the plate after bringing him for consistency. Many under performers!!!

DFA Gallo. Package Kepler and a few prospects together that help the cubs for Bellinger who happens to have reverse splits which would be a huge difference from Kepler. Call up Wallner and Larnach. Play them somewhere everyday rotating with Kiriloff, Bellinger, MAT. If they go cold bring in Austin Martin. Keep rotating guys if they’re not hitting. If they are keep them in. Simple. Get a shutdown LH for the bullpen. Let it ride. Either get the champagne ready at the end of the season or the guillotine. Not drastic but a nudge for sure. Let’s us see a couple of guys and what they bring while also cutting out the fat.

A .260-.275 hitter who can steal bases??? That's what Buxton was suppose to be and was in the minors. Now he's another Gallo or Sano swinging for the fences and striking out way too often.

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Correa's never been a great offensive player - I'd say he's good to very good (when he's locked in) but he's not going to carry a line-up for long stretches of time. His defense has been gold glove caliber so there's that and if he even slightly rebounds in the second half, his run production will wind up close to his career averages. 

With a OPS+ of 127 for his career he has the highest of any non-rookie on the roster except for Solano.

He was almost certainly projected to be the best hitter on the team in 2023. 

16 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

DFA Gallo. 

A year ago, when Gallo was performing much worse than he is now, he was traded for the #15 prospect in the Dodgers system. That's a decent piece and I suspect he could bring back roughly the same this year.

As much as we hate it, the team probably rides Kepler and Gallo to the deadline so they can trade each of them for a prospect in the teens like the Yanks did with Gallo last year. And that prospect the Yanks got is looking pretty decent, with the floor of a solid RP.

I don't agree with that approach, but I understand the reasoning.

6 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

A year ago, when Gallo was performing much worse than he is now, he was traded for the #15 prospect in the Dodgers system. That's a decent piece and I suspect he could bring back roughly the same this year.

As much as we hate it, the team probably rides Kepler and Gallo to the deadline so they can trade each of them for a prospect in the teens like the Yanks did with Gallo last year. And that prospect the Yanks got is looking pretty decent, with the floor of a solid RP.

I don't agree with that approach, but I understand the reasoning.

I get all that and it would be nice to get something for him for sure. I think the book has been written and 3rd time is the charm. Everybody sees what he has become and I just don’t see anyone wanting him at this point. We can’t wait 2 more weeks just to get a prospect. We need to do something now. DFA him. Wash your hands and go forward. 

15 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

With a OPS+ of 127 for his career he has the highest of any non-rookie on the roster except for Solano.

He was almost certainly projected to be the best hitter on the team in 2023. 

Which perhaps speaks to the line-up not being good enough - I love Correa and I'm glad he's a Twin but if you're banking on him to be your best hitter, you're setting yourself up for failure. With that said, Popkins still isn't off the hook because even though the line-up isn't good enough - it shouldn't be *this* bad.

13 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Which perhaps speaks to the line-up not being good enough - I love Correa and I'm glad he's a Twin but if you're banking on him to be your best hitter, you're setting yourself up for failure. With that said, Popkins still isn't off the hook because even though the line-up isn't good enough - it shouldn't be *this* bad.

All so, so, so very true.

Correa can be the best hitter on a good team, but you need 2-3 comparable hitters like him, meaning and OPS+ over 120.

For example, the Rangers best qualified hitter only has a 131 OPS+, but they have 3 other guys right on his tail. That's 4 hitters that are essentially producing around Correa's career OPS+. The Twins are so far from that.

It's a shooting star, but if Julien and Kirilloff can keep up what they are doing, and Buxton, Correa, and Polanco can get back to hitting their projections, then this offense will be fine. 

That's a lot that needs to go right.

7 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

We can’t wait 2 more weeks just to get a prospect. We need to do something now. DFA him (Gallo). Wash your hands and go forward. 

While I agree with you, Twins won't do it. They are not prepared to eat, what $5.5MM?