I think it is super glued shut with this FO including the Pohlad’s.  IMO on the whole roster there are maybe 5-6 players of MLB talent and most on the pitching staff. Correa seems to be improving however his salary will hurt the ability to sign any above average players.  To me it seems the same old story of signing a big name 35 or older hoping for a magic bean.  I was just thinking how sad it is when most focus is placed on getting to know minor league signings and knowing the Twins track record on developing players.  By the time they get to the majors or close to they are already injury prone.  We had one season (2019) where it felt like the  window was opening but pretty much slammed shut again after 2020.

How can the window be shut?

Paddack is under contract……Varland is under contract………..if he holds up (rebuilt arm 16 months ago) Maeda could be signed for $10-$12M maximum.

Ryan - Ober - Lopez are all in their primes, the entry side of their primes!

Lewis - Kirilloff - Julien are all guys that are real hitters and they are all young as can be.

CC & Buxton are around for 5 more years. They may not be the offensive stars we signed up for but they are supreme athletes with egos & competitive drive……they’ll be OK (Buxton once healthy). Not counting on Buxton in OF until I see it regularly.

Wallner seems to be a serviceable defender, not great, but with a great arm. Decent #5 or #6 hitter in the line-up for 5 plus years.

Castro has speed - a gun for an arm - defensive flexibility……a roster spot for him for another 3-4 years at little cost.

Lee - Rodriguez as a couple probable “can’t miss guys” coming in ‘24 or ‘25.

Spending around $150M this year on salary. After this year we shed Gallo - Polanco - Kepler - Gray - Mahle - Maeda - Solano Taylor………..that’s $70M plus/minus $3M.

Re-sign Taylor to fill the roll he was intended for this year - depth & insurance. Solano, just because he’s going to be 36 & we can get him for $3.5M (he has proven he hits) and we can DFA if we choose. Taylor for $5M…….that leaves us $61M from this year’s budget…….Sign Maeda for $11M. Now we are down to $50M to spend and not exceed this year’s budget.

Early sign Duran, Ryan & Ober. Start Duran at $5M in the early years of the extension……….same with Ryan, only he gets $8M in the first year……..same with Ober at $8M. 6 year deals that all escalate $3M per year………something like that? The security given over 6 years & the much larger check than $670K/yr will be good motivation for them.

This leaves $29M to then go & sign a FA starting pitcher, if they like or sit on the extra $$ to pick up a guy at the deadline that we can get & then extend!

Trade for Stuart Fairchild - REDS former starting CF - sent to Triple-A after 2.5 months in ‘23 due to log jam in Cinti. .750 OPS this year & fast & under control/cheap!

Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff in the infield with Farmer & Castro & Solano for depth is a great start to ‘24!

Walner - Castro - Taylor - Rodriguez/Larnach - Fairchild……….possibly spend on a FA OF bat?……..I don’t think it’s necessary with Martin & Rodriguez & Lee all coming……..once Lee arrives we get Julien to 1B & Kirilloff to a corner OF slot.

Relief help can be found - been proven this year…….Ortega - Headrick - Stewart - DeLeon , etc…….shift a starter or two, i.e. Balazovic!

I don’t see any holes nor depth issues nor near-term age issues…..neither too old nor too young. Good veteran presence with a bunch of young talent!! 

BUY:

Larnach - SWR & a young AA or below SS talent/prospect……….. for Cody Bellinger of Cubs…..having an exceptional year & Boras is his agent. Maybe CC could have some pull?

SWR & young prospect at A or lower for Stuart Fairchild of the Reds? Fast - .240 BA -  .743 OPS this season & can play any OF position with CF being the norm …….currently at AAA.

Only need one of these two - Bellinger would be a big shot in the arm for this year. Fairchild has a shot at developing into a decent to above average CF with some years of control left.

V. RH pitching:

CC - JulienDH - Kirilloff - Polanco - Bellinger - Wallner - Kepler - Jeffers - Castro3B

Buxton - Farmer - Lewis - Vazquez on the bench. Gallo/Solano/Taylor would all have to go away…………maybe Buxton to long-term IL to keep Solano or Taylor active?

Sorry, but the window is just opening, particularly if we invest in our young players to turn them into actual major leaguers. The ‘23 Twins are a transition team in the field. Gallo, Solano, Castro, Taylor are all one and done. Kepler is gone too. We might include Polanco too.

Here is our ‘24/‘25 lineup possibilities: 

Infield: CC, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Polanco (maybe ‘24), Farmer (‘24) Miller/Schobel (‘25).

Outfield: Larnach, Wallner, Kiriloff (or 1B), Rodriguez (‘25), Gordon and/or Martin plus ideally one FA (CF would be ideal).

Catcher: Jeffers and Vasquez

DH: Buxton

Starters: Ober, Ryan, Lopez, Varland, Paddock, Raya and Festa (both ‘25) plus one FA next year.  All set for 3 years and that excludes Prielipp and Widener.

Bullpen: Duran, Jax, Stewart, and we will figure out the rest.

That team is young, cheap, and improving. Plenty of cash to fill in holes with FAs - one starter, one OFer, and relievers as needed.

This team beats the ‘23 Twind hands down, particularly if we get a manager/coaching staff that can develop young talent. And the team is way more fun to watch, 

39 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Sorry, but the window is just opening, particularly if we invest in our young players to turn them into actual major leaguers. The ‘23 Twins are a transition team in the field. Gallo, Solano, Castro, Taylor are all one and done. Kepler is gone too. We might include Polanco too.

Here is our ‘24/‘25 lineup possibilities: 

Infield: CC, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Polanco (maybe ‘24), Farmer (‘24) Miller/Schobel (‘25).

Outfield: Larnach, Wallner, Kiriloff (or 1B), Rodriguez (‘25), Gordon and/or Martin plus ideally one FA (CF would be ideal).

Catcher: Jeffers and Vasquez

DH: Buxton

Starters: Ober, Ryan, Lopez, Varland, Paddock, Raya and Festa (both ‘25) plus one FA next year.  All set for 3 years and that excludes Prielipp and Widener.

Bullpen: Duran, Jax, Stewart, and we will figure out the rest.

That team is young, cheap, and improving. Plenty of cash to fill in holes with FAs - one starter, one OFer, and relievers as needed.

This team beats the ‘23 Twind hands down, particularly if we get a manager/coaching staff that can develop young talent. And the team is way more fun to watch, 

 

 

 

I hope not!

40 minutes ago, RpR said:

I hope not!

So you think our window is closing?  You don’t like our up and comers? You think an additional FA to our starting staff isnt sufficient? You want any or all of the one year rental vets back?

3 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

So you think our window is closing?  You don’t like our up and comers? You think an additional FA to our starting staff isnt sufficient? You want any or all of the one year rental vets back?

Yes, some, yes, yes.

52 minutes ago, RpR said:

Yes, some, yes, yes.

Boy, if the absolutely dismal underperformance of this team in the years since our aberration homer year is the definition of an “open window” our franchise is in deep doo doo.  But for sure, Kepler, Gallo, Solano, Castro and Taylor are not going to the basis for any sort of “open window” in the future.  Not even a crack.

I'm not sure I follow the line of logic here. If the Twins do nothing in the offseason, the 26-man roster will look like this and be $60M cheaper:

Rotation: P Lopez, J Ryan, B Ober, C Paddack, L Varland

Bullpen: J Balazovic, O Ortega, J Moran, J Lopez, C Thielbar, B Stewart, G Jax, J Duran

Catcher: R Jeffers, C Vazquez

INF: K Farmer, E Julien, C Correa, W Castro, R Lewis

OF: M Wallner, A Kirilloff, G Celestino, T Larnach, N Gordon

DH: B Buxton

This team isn't anything too spectacular, a borderline top-10 staff with a below average lineup and defense. Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Jose Miranda and some guys we've seen on the pitching side (Winder, Sands, SWR, Headrick, etc) provide some young and decent depth that will probably lead the team to a 70-80 win finish. Now let's see what happens if we use those $60M we shed by letting guys walk on free agents

Rotation: P Lopez, J Ryan, Julio Urias (6 years 26M APY), B Ober, C Paddack

Bullpen: O Ortega, J Moran, J Lopez, C Thielbar, Andrew Chafin (2 years 6.5M APY), B Stewart, G Jax, J Duran

Catcher: R Jeffers, C Vazquez

INF: K Farmer, E Julien, C Correa, Whit Merrifield (1 year 6M APY), R Lewis

OF: Lourdes Gurriel (4 years 17.5 APY), A Kirilloff, W Castro, T Larnach, N Gordon

DH: B Buxton

*Note* This hypothetical only calculates the usage of 56M of the 60M. The other $4M will be used for five or six veteran minimum contracts.

Again, the names are not necessarily what matters here; it's the usage of the money. One big arm, a right-handed OF, and some additional pieces can be paid for with $60M. The only Twins player moving into arbitration is Ryan Jeffers, and I doubt that he'll break the bank in his first year, so the salaries of the pre-FA players won't increase very much. On paper, this team probably has the best rotation in baseball, a top-ten bullpen, and a lineup that has a healthy mix of accending players (Julien, AK, Lewis) and productive veterans (Buxton, Correa, Gurriel).

I think an exciting aspect of the Twins this winter will be that the players they are losing are not cornerstone players, and many are probably overpaid somewhat. I think the depth of this team will allow them to spend big on a couple of players rather than give out twelve $5M/1yr contracts to fill endless holes. The rotation will be a question mark, but there are plenty of names available (Stroman, Kershaw, Nola, Snell, Wacha, and the aforementioned Urias will slide in the top of any rotation), and the Twins still have Winder, Paddack, Headrick, and SWR who could probably be fine 5th starters to help save the 'pen when Ryan/Lopez/Ober aren't starting.

The window is open because we have three co-aces on cheap contracts through 2027. We also have young hitters like Lee, Julien, AK, Lewis, and eventually, Jenkins who will provide $20M+ dollars of value each year while being paid much less than that. That allows the FO to not have a top-10 payroll but still compete. 

Love the thought on Jordyn Adams but he won't be available unless we're willing to give up starting pitching that can pitch at the MLB level now - think Varland at least. The Angels are  thinking the same way about Adams the poster is and will not trade him except for a major return. 

I share your concern about next years OF. I am not yet sold on wither Wallner (no defense, too many SOs) or Larnach (low BA, too many SOs). Gordon is also a real question mark. I expect Kepler to stay after what he's shown in the last 30-40 games. .286/.343/.541 over the last 30 games. Your 2024 starting LF right now is a Gordon or Castro/Wallner or Larnach platoon. Not exciting. Given the pitching cost though, I would much rather spend a little more and get Lane Thomas or Dylan Carlson if we can. I still expecting a minor trade for a Randal Grichuck type at best, though, and the Trwins to roll with the guys they presently have in 2024 in the OF. Any FA money will be spent on pitching. 

Even though the team is playing much better lately, IMO they are still a mediocre, not bad, team.  If we have been in a " window" the past three years then the windows should be replaced with new ones.  And a new set of eyes should then be supervising.  We will probably win the division.  And we should.  Anything short of that in an awful division would be totally unacceptable. 

18 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Sorry, but the window is just opening, particularly if we invest in our young players to turn them into actual major leaguers. The ‘23 Twins are a transition team in the field. Gallo, Solano, Castro, Taylor are all one and done. Kepler is gone too. We might include Polanco too.

Here is our ‘24/‘25 lineup possibilities: 

Infield: CC, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Polanco (maybe ‘24), Farmer (‘24) Miller/Schobel (‘25).

Outfield: Larnach, Wallner, Kiriloff (or 1B), Rodriguez (‘25), Gordon and/or Martin plus ideally one FA (CF would be ideal).

Catcher: Jeffers and Vasquez

DH: Buxton

Starters: Ober, Ryan, Lopez, Varland, Paddock, Raya and Festa (both ‘25) plus one FA next year.  All set for 3 years and that excludes Prielipp and Widener.

Bullpen: Duran, Jax, Stewart, and we will figure out the rest.

That team is young, cheap, and improving. Plenty of cash to fill in holes with FAs - one starter, one OFer, and relievers as needed.

This team beats the ‘23 Twind hands down, particularly if we get a manager/coaching staff that can develop young talent. And the team is way more fun to watch, 

 

 

 

I think the jury is still out on Larnach; although I remain hopeful.  I do not see Polanco back with all the young infield talent within the organization.  Polanco has been great but there is so much evidence that his performance and health curves are pointed downwards.

The management is trying to give a good enough of a product at the MLB level while they will begin to ramp up on elite talents that have the chance to transform the organization.  The bats have slightly underperformed this year but not bad.  If they heat up just a little bit,  you have a legit team to compete in the playoffs.  A chip and chair and see what happens and if a couple players get hot.  We finally have a staff that has the arms to compete.  Plus finally learning to play some small ball - which we refused to early in the year.  The small ball has given us 2-3 extra wins in this stretch rather than waiting for the long ball that hasn't show up in some of those games.  The MLB core is in a much better place than a couple years ago.  The minor leagues will likely looked fairly stacked and balanced from top to bottom after next years drafts with lots of players who have the ability to be elite.  

On 7/23/2023 at 8:40 AM, MABB1959 said:

I think it is super glued shut with this FO including the Pohlad’s.  IMO on the whole roster there are maybe 5-6 players of MLB talent and most on the pitching staff. Correa seems to be improving however his salary will hurt the ability to sign any above average players.  To me it seems the same old story of signing a big name 35 or older hoping for a magic bean.  I was just thinking how sad it is when most focus is placed on getting to know minor league signings and knowing the Twins track record on developing players.  By the time they get to the majors or close to they are already injury prone.  We had one season (2019) where it felt like the  window was opening but pretty much slammed shut again after 2020.

How is a team 6 games over .500 with 'maybe 5-6 players of MLB talent?' That's not credible. As for keeping 'home grown talent' - there are only 40 slots, and you need to be mindful of the pipeline. Some of the players they traded away may well have been lost in the Rule 5 draft if they had kept them.

Twins with most of their better talent, close to the majors had better use this window.  WIth Lee and Martin at AA or above, and Lewis and Polonco close to returning, we should be able to win the division, winning a game or two will depend on the better players hitting. 

Next year with a number of players with midrange salaries gone, we should be fine.  White Sox, and Royals look years away, and Cleveland and Detroit will not compete without major influx of money.

Was it ever open?  Certainly not in the sense we banked on winners to deliver.   It seems like we have maintained roster flexibility. So in that sense it seems like the widow is as open as ever but the chance anything big happens is extremely remote. 

The window is OPEN because of the starting pitching. Would like to keep one of Maeda or Gray, but what this team needs and has needed is a RH stud in left field and Bullpen help.

If only we could undue the Pressley for Alcala trade. Pressley has been worth every penny of the 3 yr. $30M deal he got from Houston. Alcala & Moran and "others" have been complete busts in the pen.

Pagan is great in Low leverage situations but continually hangs one in high leverage situations.  And now Jax is doing the same.

Theilbar & Stewart are sorely missed.

Always liked Kepler and if he continues to stay hot, he may be around next year. Lanarch & Wallner have not proven to be better hitters and are a downgrade in defense, but survivable if we sign a big name RH left fielder next year.

I like Gordon, but Castro is better and should stay. Castro, Farmer & Solano make up the best trio of utility players anywhere. Does that mean we are contenders with them all in the lineup? NO! But with Lewis, Correa, Julien/Polanco & Kiriloff you have a potential All Star infield with excellent backups.

Gallo needs to go - now! Kepler & Polanco and Gordon are the odd men out next year - even though they aren't that expensive.  But that could help us sign the abovementioned stud for LF.

Can we contend this year? Maybe with bullpen additio s and if the starting nine hitters get hot. 

But next year by moving Gallo, Gray, Polanco & Kepler and signing a stud RH outfielder with an improved bullpen - Definately.

PS> trading for the Cincy CF makes zero sense. Not an upgrade over Taylor.