2 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Kingman’s best 3 years we’re in Wrigley…he barely had anything close to a good year outside of wrigley…maybe one.

He wouldn’t be in the hall of fame in ANY era.

This exactly proves my point.  The OP said that batting average is the worst offensive stat in baseball.  Everyone who is defending that point brings up the fact that HR's are so so so much more valuable than just being a good hitter.  But when I bring up a guy who hit 442 HR's everyone is saying that he sucks.  He was an All Star 3 times.  He got MVP votes with the Giants, Mets, Cubs and A's.  All stadiums except for Wrigley are pretty bad hitter parks and he still ended up with 442 home runs, but he ain't worth nothing when I compare him to an all around hitter that hit like a total of 90 HR's in a 20 year career.  So being a good hitter is way more important than hitting HR's

10 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

OBP is like 80% batting average.  It's BA with walks.  

The percentage of OBP that is hits versus walks varies from player to player. Last year, Juan Soto had 135 walks. His batting average was .242, and his OBP was .401. Do the math, walks were a lot more than 20 percent of his OBP. Same with Aaron Judge and some other players. 

On 5/15/2023 at 9:58 AM, jmlease1 said:

Rod Carew was a hall of famer, so...no. Carew was substantially better on offense for his career, in part because he also walked more than Kingman. Carew also didn't just slap a bunch of singles; he had 45% more doubles and 4 1/2 times as many triples than Kingman, which makes up to a degree for the many more HRs that Kingman hit. Kingman was also a rotten defender, and Carew was a decent one. The Twins were better off with Carew not because of just his batting average, but because he also had a better on-base %, a better OPS, a better OPS+, and was a much better defensive player.

I mean, you're comparing an 18-time all-star vs a 3 time all-star (who played on teams that didn't have a lot of other options and was a marginal to poor choice all three years), a no-doubt Hall of Famer, MVP, and RoY against a guy who was...just a guy.

Arraez is a very good player and currently having a Carew-like year. but it's been less than 1/4 of the season for a player that struggled down the stretch last year because of chronic leg problems. He's healthy now and playing great (good for him! I love Luis Arraez) but he did similar things for the Twins last season before falling off significantly. he's struggled against lefties his whole career and has a pretty significant split again this season. So far, Gallo and Arraez have been pretty similar in terms of their overall offensive contributions, albeit in very different ways. Arraez could end up providing more total value over the course of the season (and has so far) if he's able to stay healthy and at 2B...but that's a pretty huge if. Too early to really compare him to Rod Carew.

20 guys in MLB hit over .290 last year (2022) & Arraez hit .316. Average over 4 seasons is .314 going into ‘23. If somebody is already on base, do you want a lifetime .198 hitter that hits a home run every one in sixteen AB’s and puts the ball in play 40% of the time OR a guy who gets on base 40% of the time and gets a hit 35% of the time. Runners score by advancing on bases!

This is his 5th season as an excellent hitter not his 2nd month in some fluke year.

The risk/reward for Gallo in a line-up can be rationalized but to help win games over a long 162 game schedule I don’t think many clubs would opt for Gallo v. Arraez.

Arraez not scoring runs has to do with the mediocrity in the Marlin’s line-up behind him…..not because he’s not hitting the ball far enough!

On 5/15/2023 at 11:58 AM, arby58 said:

Headlines are meant to get a reader to read it. If you would prefer 'less useful than OPS or WAR' statistic, that's fine with me. The beauty of OPS is it gives hitters like Arraez credit for what they do (via OBP), but it also recognizes that a walk or single is less impactful than extra base hits. 

The Gallo example is a stark reflection of that. As I noted in another post, Gallo went 1 for 5 yesterday, but the 1 was a HR, so he had a run scored and a run batted in - but his batting average went down. Arraez was 2 for 4, but neither hit led to him scoring a run or batting one in. His batting average went up. Who had the better game?

Batting average tells an important part of the story so the title is incorrect. After reading through comments it sounds like you're looking for a more complete statistic & have settled on OPS. OPS is Ok, but it tends to favor power hitters, whereas a stat like wOBA seems to give a more complete picture. Currently, Luis Arraez wOBA is .398, Joey Gallo is at .374. So your comparison is fine, but for my money Arraez is more productive.

The bottom line is if we offered Joey Gallo to the Marlins for Luis Arraez I'm pretty sure the Marlins would say no way.

As with most stats in baseball, BA is not an end-all, rather a piece of a much larger picture.  You don't look at BA in a vacuum, you look at the other offensive stats around it to determine value.

I don't think a "Gallo vs Arraez" type hitter is an either/or argument.  Both types of hitters have pros and cons.  You wouldn't necessarily want 9 Arraez bats or 9 Gallo bats in the lineup, you want a mixture of both.

Runs scored and RBI's are not great indicators of individual offensive value as they greatly rely on the hitters around you.

It is amazing how many advanced analytics come into play now. 

Stats are all relative. Anyone can find some data to support whatever argument. If you played baseball for a long time and watched a pile of games across decades, you have seen the various trends move and if you are still following in a the next decade you will see additional numbers become the rage. Folks can argue the current set of data and players are better all day and then hear the same from more voices down the road. Despite Manfred making his best attempts to uck the game, baseball remains a relatively timeless game of adjustments between pitcher and batter and the data is just peripheral. 

I don't agree with the analysis at all. Comparing the 'value' of Arraez vs Gallo is just disingenuous IMO.  I agree that if Gallo was offered to Miami for Arraez,,,1000 out of 1000 people would say 'no way' so fast your head would spin.

Devaluing Arraez because of his  ( at the time) 14 runs scored; and over-valuing Gallo's modest HR total doesn't make any sense. How many rallies has Gallo killed by striking out about once every two AB's? How many rallies does a base hit ever kill? Its a team game and you can't do it all by yourself.

Whether the trade was a good one or not will probably be debated until the season ends and see how things shake out. But trying to make us believe that Gallo is more valuable than Arraez just doesn't make sense. They are totally different players with different skills.

I think many here are kinda fed up with the homer or nothing approach the Twins lineup brings to the table.

the original article here was written around the middle of May. Since that time Gallo has regressed badly (last couple of games he has perked up a tad with some long balls, but he is still on a pace to strike out minimally 1,000 times this season😅) His value to the Twins from that point in May to the end of June was abysmal.

Same timeframe Arraez was cruising towards .400. And Marlins were a team on the upswing. Now I really doubt Arraez will hit .400. I don't doubt he can win the battling title and get 200 hits this season. So far he is at .389 with 36 runs scored and 41 driven in (not bad for a leadoff slap hitter) he has also fanned a grand total of 17 times (which is about what Gallo does in a week or less) OPS is ,922. He has walked 25 times + 8 more intentionally. You never hurt your team overall when you get hits or walks. You rarely ever help your team when you strikeout.

Since that May post we now see Gallo with OPS of .798. He has 87 k's in 187 AB's. 27 runs scored and 28 driven in (15 of those driving in himself) His BA is .193 which is only 6 points lower than his career BA of .199. The 'comparison' of those two players has taken a major left turn. FWIW.

Arraez has a job. It is to get on base. That is something the Twins sorely lack now. It is NOT his job to drive in runs. If the folks behind him cannot drive him in, that is a reflection on the hitters behind him. I would take Arraez over every other hitter on the Twins right now....

I had a whole write up I was putting together and I just didn't feel like finishing because I was going in loops.  Is BA the worst?  I dont think so.  Is it the best?  Nope.  Should it be used as part of the equation when determining a player's effectiveness?  Absolutely.

If I'm Rocco and I dont have a choice to send Gallo anywhere then I'm looking at it like this.

- If the opposing team is starting a player that doesn't give up a lot of home runs, and we need to play small ball, then I'm sitting Gallo.

- On the opposite side, if they opposing pitcher is having recent HR struggles then Gallo is going to be in the lineup, preferably behind someone that has a very high OPS.

The only reason a "singles" hitter is devalued is simply because the value of a single is diminished just like a rbi is. A single is just a single unless there's a runner on 2nd or 3rd. Then it becomes a single with risp. But if the runner on 2nd does not score because he's held up or slow then its just a single again. A singles hitter can go 4-4 with 4 singles and no rbi's and his value is less than a player who goes 1-5 with a solo HR and 4 strikeouts. Because it's the singles hitters fault no one got on base before him. And all the GMs are buying it. Earl Weavers quote about the 3 run homer is only effective if 2 guys get on base before the homer

On 7/2/2023 at 6:51 PM, insagt1 said:

the original article here was written around the middle of May. Since that time Gallo has regressed badly (last couple of games he has perked up a tad with some long balls, but he is still on a pace to strike out minimally 1,000 times this season😅) His value to the Twins from that point in May to the end of June was abysmal.

Same timeframe Arraez was cruising towards .400. And Marlins were a team on the upswing. Now I really doubt Arraez will hit .400. I don't doubt he can win the battling title and get 200 hits this season. So far he is at .389 with 36 runs scored and 41 driven in (not bad for a leadoff slap hitter) he has also fanned a grand total of 17 times (which is about what Gallo does in a week or less) OPS is ,922. He has walked 25 times + 8 more intentionally. You never hurt your team overall when you get hits or walks. You rarely ever help your team when you strikeout.

Since that May post we now see Gallo with OPS of .798. He has 87 k's in 187 AB's. 27 runs scored and 28 driven in (15 of those driving in himself) His BA is .193 which is only 6 points lower than his career BA of .199. The 'comparison' of those two players has taken a major left turn. FWIW.

The Gallo to Arraez comparison was to make a point, and it is still valid - singles hitters don't contribute to an offense the way hitters do with more power. The best example right now is Atlanta's Acuna. Arraez is still hitting an all-world .388 - good for him. Acuna is hitting 'just' .335. So, big edge for Arraez, right? The story ends there, because Acuna has scored over twice as many runs (77 to 37), hit seven times as many home runs (21 to 3), and has an OPS of 1.011 versus Arraez' .917. I had to LOL at a recent post that suggested Arraez could win the NL MVP - not if this statistical comparisons hold up.

On 7/2/2023 at 11:00 PM, Aerodeliria said:

Arraez has a job. It is to get on base. That is something the Twins sorely lack now. It is NOT his job to drive in runs. If the folks behind him cannot drive him in, that is a reflection on the hitters behind him. Give Arraez over every other hitter on the Twins right now....

If that is Arraez' only job, fine, but baseball is far more nuanced than that. The ultimate job for any offensive player is to produce runs - and it's a lot harder to produce one while standing on first than if on second, third or rounding the bases after a home run. It's also complicated if you don't run particularly well. The fact remains that Arraez isn't scoring many runs for a player with his batting average, and some of the blame falls on him mostly standing on first base after his base hits.

Tell Carew or Rose or Ichiro that they didn't contribute majorly to their teams offense. For heavens sake...different players, different teams, different compositions on how to score runs. You are doing everything in your power to try and discredit Arraez's contributions because clearly you are a fan of the longball. I like it too, but I also hate all the k's that often go with. Occasionally a Sano or Gallo will hit a meaningful HR...but like singles hitters, not all HR's are meaningful from game to game. Marlins like Arraez and they are playing winning baseball. Apparently they are content with that.

BTW--comparing any player to Acuna Jr this season is sheer folly. Why not also compare with Othani? Players having monster seasons...and yet in the latters case, the team still can't win despite his 31 dingers. Baseball is a team game. They all contribute and you need all kinds of players to do it. Comparing a spray hitter with a power hitter has very little value other than just for fun.

On 7/4/2023 at 12:07 AM, arby58 said:

If that is Arraez' only job, fine, but baseball is far more nuanced than that. The ultimate job for any offensive player is to produce runs - and it's a lot harder to produce one while standing on first than if on second, third or rounding the bases after a home run. It's also complicated if you don't run particularly well. The fact remains that Arraez isn't scoring many runs for a player with his batting average, and some of the blame falls on him mostly standing on first base after his base hits.

The best hitters in the game produce even with two strikes on them

Luis Arraez slash line with 2 strikes - .338/.389/.384
Joey Gallo slash line with 2 strikes - .071/.176/.198

I know which one I'll take on my team every day.

It's definitely not the "worst" offensive statistic in baseball.

Top Teams in BA for 2023 for winning percentage

- Texas .274 - Ranked 4th in MLB for winning percentage

- Atlanta - .274 Ranked 1st in MLB for winning percentage

- Miami - .264 Ranked 5th in MLB for winning percentage

- Tampa Bay - .262 Ranked 2nd in MLB for winning percentage

Seems like the correlation between wins and BA is higher than 0. 

On 7/4/2023 at 1:16 PM, insagt1 said:

 

BTW--comparing any player to Acuna Jr this season is sheer folly. Why not also compare with Othani? Players having monster seasons...and yet in the latters case, the team still can't win despite his 31 dingers. Baseball is a team game. They all contribute and you need all kinds of players to do it. Comparing a spray hitter with a power hitter has very little value other than just for fun.

I compared him to Acuna because the post suggested Arraez might win the MVP this year - which is absurd. Please, read with some context.

If that is what you meant, it wasn't real obvious. But, I agree with you, Arraez wont be the NL MVP unless perhaps he did hit .400, which he won't do. theres a reason why it hasn't been done in over 80 years. Just like there won't be any 56 game hitting steaks anymore either,; but there might be a 100 stolen base season now that the Reds have that exciting new kid running wild. The bigger bases, fewer tosses to first allowed may help some, but he does add something that has been missing lately to the mix.

Its refreshing to see players like Acuna this season. He's a throwback to the day when a guy was not single-dimensional. He combines power speed and the ability to get on base. Vlad Guerrero was that guy too. He missed a 40-40 season by one HR. He had monster power, but he also got on base a lot, had blinding speed and didn't strike out a ton. It broke my heart that he chose to go into the HOF as an Angel, because he would have been the very last Expo to make it in. To this day though many still think of him as an Expo (and in full disclosure, I am completely biased as I lived in Mtl when the Expos were born, and felt the inconsolable pain when they were moved..its hard to get over stuff like that)

Others have alluded to this, so at the risk of repetition . . . MLB is in the entertainment business. Arraez entertains. Even if he doesn't score (over which he has little control), he creates action, movement, and the possibility of scoring. Gallo, except for his solo homer every ten days or so, produces only frustration for the fan. If the two are somehow statistically equal (which I doubt), EVERYONE will prefer Arraez's entertainment value. And if they are equal, why are the Twins so bad and the Marlins so (comparatively) good?