Thread: Article: Matt Capps and his looming option year

Originally Posted by nick5253

Originally Posted by old nurse

Capps would have been a Type B free agent. That would have netted them the 58th pick. In the middle of the winter they would have expected a Pavano, Liriano and Baker combo to healthy and have 15-16 wins each the next year, being optimistic, and Blackburn to be .500. You do need a closer if the three pitchers returned healthy and in in 2009-2010 form. If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions. The end result was players stepped forward.

Your logic "If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions" is solid, but the choice of Capps was obviously incorrect. The Twins could have had a similar bullpen arm AND the pick.

Here are the 'closers' signed in 2012, their salaries (mil), and finally their 2012 WAR (FG):

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3

Multi-YR Deals:
Heath Bell, 6, 0.4
Frank Francisco, 5.5, 0.1
Joe Nathan, 7, 1.7
Jonathan Papelbon, 11, 1.4

The Twins weren't eveer going to go multi-year on a 'closer', so looking only at that first group, the Twins could have had better production from nearly all of that group AND received a draft pick AND paid less is nearly every case.

This is why their logical was flawed for signing Capps.

Those that signed a one year deal, what was their WAR the previous season? You would be basing your decision on what they have done and anticipate continuation. When used as a closer, what was Capps WAR when healthy? He wasn't this year.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Capps is a good pitcher. I certainly wouldn't be opposed to taking the option. For me, the salary isn't a big issue unless it prohibits signing a free agent starting pitcher.

If Capps is a good pitcher, Butera is a good catcher and Valencia was a good 3B and Nishioka is a good middle infielder. The Twins could have saved some money and signed one of the other half a dozen guys that got one year deals and would have had about the same pitcher.

Some other team can sign him for the 2-3 million range and he can be there problem. I just hope he stays in the AL so he can pitch BP to us at the end of the game.

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

1)i see you blame bill smith ,even though it is known that terry ryan was his advisior and made all of the transactions during smith tenoras g.m.

This is patently untrue. Stop saying it.

I am not a Capps hater but I did not like the trade either.
He was not a mediocre pitcher when they acquired him, as he was a legit All Star that season with Nationals, who had 3 that summer.
I was not the biggest Ramos fan, who I see as a middle of road prospect still. TRyan rectified that deal by signing Ryan Doumit.....a better option.
I agree that we should of taken the draft pick tho as closers can be overrated and the way Gardy uses em is proof of that.
However, if they sign Capps to a total incentive laden deal to pitch the 7th/8th in Alex Burnett's spot, I wouldnt hate it....but ONLY an incentive games pitched deal to offset his arm problems.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

1)i see you blame bill smith ,even though it is known that terry ryan was his advisior and made all of the transactions during smith tenoras g.m.

This is patently untrue. Stop saying it.

During the Smith years TR did provide all player eval imput to BS as BS has no player eval skillsn. BS is to blame for the bad contracts but Ryan and his scouts are to blame for the utter lack of talent in the organization.

Originally Posted by twinswon1991

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

1)i see you blame bill smith ,even though it is known that terry ryan was his advisior and made all of the transactions during smith tenoras g.m.

This is patently untrue. Stop saying it.

During the Smith years TR did provide all player eval imput to BS as BS has no player eval skillsn. BS is to blame for the bad contracts but Ryan and his scouts are to blame for the utter lack of talent in the organization.

Did JR advise BS on players? No doubt. Did Smith listen? I have no idea and neither does anyone else on this forum. In the end, Smith was the decision maker. He gets the blame for bad decisions made during his tenure. Given what JR has done since that point (plus signings in Doumit/Willingham/Burton, a marginal signing in Carroll, and bad signings in Marquis/Capps), I think he's done a decent job with the franchise. The last draft certainly went gangbusters with Buxton and Berrios.

Like I've been saying all along, rebuilding is not a five minute process. JR is entering his second offseason. If he doesn't come through this winter, then it's time to start complaining.

Rosterman hit the nail on the head - spend Baker/Pavano money on one pitcher, spend Casilla/Capps/Marquis money on another. Now, it isn't fair to think about the option year dollars that we'd have to spend if we retained them ('cuz we aren't, under this scenario) and it IS fair to consider those players who are due raises.

Where does that put us? How much do we have to spend, assuming $90 million as payroll? And then (I'd argue) assume it is worth it to spend $5-$10 million more to improve the team and send a positive PR message and try to fill the seats again (and that RP move HAS to be 2 decent starting pitchers). If we take those dollars and compare them to the bumper crop of FA SPs this year, who could we get? (and please don't tell me we'd get Baker and Pavano back, maybe sign FA Francisco Liriano and "load up" with the same old same old). Who could we really get?

I've got to think about something positive, winter is coming.

Originally Posted by old nurse

Originally Posted by nick5253

Originally Posted by old nurse

Capps would have been a Type B free agent. That would have netted them the 58th pick. In the middle of the winter they would have expected a Pavano, Liriano and Baker combo to healthy and have 15-16 wins each the next year, being optimistic, and Blackburn to be .500. You do need a closer if the three pitchers returned healthy and in in 2009-2010 form. If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions. The end result was players stepped forward.

Your logic "If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions" is solid, but the choice of Capps was obviously incorrect. The Twins could have had a similar bullpen arm AND the pick.

Here are the 'closers' signed in 2012, their salaries (mil), and finally their 2012 WAR (FG):

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3

Multi-YR Deals:
Heath Bell, 6, 0.4
Frank Francisco, 5.5, 0.1
Joe Nathan, 7, 1.7
Jonathan Papelbon, 11, 1.4

The Twins weren't eveer going to go multi-year on a 'closer', so looking only at that first group, the Twins could have had better production from nearly all of that group AND received a draft pick AND paid less is nearly every case.

This is why their logical was flawed for signing Capps.

Those that signed a one year deal, what was their WAR the previous season? You would be basing your decision on what they have done and anticipate continuation. When used as a closer, what was Capps WAR when healthy? He wasn't this year.

Player, '12 Salary, '12 WAR, '11 WAR

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1, -0.4
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3, -0.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0, 1.7
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8, 0.1
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5, 0.9
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2, 0.3
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4, -0.6
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2, -0.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3, 1.4

So, in order of 2011 WAR, the Twins chose the 2nd worst player and paid him the 2nd most money AND sacrificed a draft pick.

Capps cumulative WAR for the Twins over the 2+ years, is 0.1 (0.6,-0.4,-0.1) for which he has 'earned' around 13 mil. Capps value was clear to nearly everyone (except BS & apparently old nurse) when the Twins acquired him: a good setup man as long as he's cost controlled that was labeled a 'closer' by virtue of being the best bullpen arm on a couple bad teams.

You can spin the trade by saying you undervalue Ramos considerably, but there is no way you can spin last year's signing and forfeiture of the 'free' draft pick.

I am sure that the Twins will look again in the heap pile and find another couple pitchers better than Capps next season (like they did with Burton and Fien this season) I just find it irritating that they are playing him in expense of a prospect or two...

Originally Posted by nick5253

Originally Posted by old nurse

Originally Posted by nick5253

Originally Posted by old nurse

Capps would have been a Type B free agent. That would have netted them the 58th pick. In the middle of the winter they would have expected a Pavano, Liriano and Baker combo to healthy and have 15-16 wins each the next year, being optimistic, and Blackburn to be .500. You do need a closer if the three pitchers returned healthy and in in 2009-2010 form. If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions. The end result was players stepped forward.

Your logic "If you think your squad has a chance, then you need a closer, not a pen of questions" is solid, but the choice of Capps was obviously incorrect. The Twins could have had a similar bullpen arm AND the pick.

Here are the 'closers' signed in 2012, their salaries (mil), and finally their 2012 WAR (FG):

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3

Multi-YR Deals:
Heath Bell, 6, 0.4
Frank Francisco, 5.5, 0.1
Joe Nathan, 7, 1.7
Jonathan Papelbon, 11, 1.4

The Twins weren't eveer going to go multi-year on a 'closer', so looking only at that first group, the Twins could have had better production from nearly all of that group AND received a draft pick AND paid less is nearly every case.

This is why their logical was flawed for signing Capps.

Those that signed a one year deal, what was their WAR the previous season? You would be basing your decision on what they have done and anticipate continuation. When used as a closer, what was Capps WAR when healthy? He wasn't this year.

Player, '12 Salary, '12 WAR, '11 WAR

1 YR Deals:
Matt Capps, 6, -0.1, -0.4
Jonathan Broxton, 4, 1.3, -0.3
Ryan Madson, 6, 0, 1.7
Francisco Cordero, 4.5, -0.8, 0.1
Octavio Dotel, 3, 1.5, 0.9
Brad Lidge, 1, -0.2, 0.3
Jon Rauch, 3.5, 0.4, -0.6
Fernando Rodney, 1.75, 2.2, -0.2
Francisco Rodriguez, 8, 0.3, 1.4

So, in order of 2011 WAR, the Twins chose the 2nd worst player and paid him the 2nd most money AND sacrificed a draft pick.

Capps cumulative WAR for the Twins over the 2+ years, is 0.1 (0.6,-0.4,-0.1) for which he has 'earned' around 13 mil. Capps value was clear to nearly everyone (except BS & apparently old nurse) when the Twins acquired him: a good setup man as long as he's cost controlled that was labeled a 'closer' by virtue of being the best bullpen arm on a couple bad teams.

You can spin the trade by saying you undervalue Ramos considerably, but there is no way you can spin last year's signing and forfeiture of the 'free' draft pick.

WTF did I ever say that was spin? You are the one using a single stastic. First off, can you even tell what the p value of the rating is so one could tell if .4 difference betweens players really means diddly. The second fatal flaw is your assumption that the Twins did not contact any of the other pitchers.
Like it or not Capps is what they could get for a reliever in 2010. The cost was a potentially good catcher. Clearly Rauch was not the answer. With Nathan making it clear he wasn't going to come back you have to make your best guess. Capps WAR as listed in 2011 when he was used as a closer was 1.2. 1.2 looks good by your list. Who or what would sign with the Twins and could perform well in their park.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Capps is a good pitcher. I certainly wouldn't be opposed to taking the option. For me, the salary isn't a big issue unless it prohibits signing a free agent starting pitcher.

Even a healthy Capps is not worth the $6.25m difference between the option and the buyout. Pass.

Scott Baker won't get that much in 2013. Who would you rather see paid that money?

Obviously he's not worth it, but he's an above average righty when healthy and a familiar option. Capps performance is not a gamble if he stays with the team. I see the Pohlad's saving money this year and think it wouldn't harm the Twins financially if they decided to pick it up. I don't mind 1 year deals for larger amounts of money. It doesn't hamper the following year with a hefty salary and for the year 2013, money won't be an issue.

Originally Posted by zenser

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

Capps is a good pitcher. I certainly wouldn't be opposed to taking the option. For me, the salary isn't a big issue unless it prohibits signing a free agent starting pitcher.

If Capps is a good pitcher, Butera is a good catcher and Valencia was a good 3B and Nishioka is a good middle infielder. The Twins could have saved some money and signed one of the other half a dozen guys that got one year deals and would have had about the same pitcher.

Some other team can sign him for the 2-3 million range and he can be there problem. I just hope he stays in the AL so he can pitch BP to us at the end of the game.

No logic in this response at all. A 3.61 ERA (since joining the Twins) is pretty good as a reliever. He keeps runners off the bases and an excellent WHIP of 1.172 shows that. He's not elite, but really? Don't compare him to scrubs who couldn't cut it in the majors.

Originally Posted by YourHouseIsMyHouse

No logic in this response at all. A 3.61 ERA (since joining the Twins) is pretty good as a reliever. He keeps runners off the bases and an excellent WHIP of 1.172 shows that. He's not elite, but really? Don't compare him to scrubs who couldn't cut it in the majors.

No he's not Nishi or Butera. But, just so we're clear, 3.61 ERA would place him in the bottom half of all relievers since 2010. He's not elite, no, and he's really not even been that good, and certainly not worth the money.

He would be a fine reliever to have around for a million or two, as the fourth or fifth option out of the pen.

Originally Posted by snepp

He would be a fine reliever to have around for a million or two, as the fourth or fifth option out of the pen.

I'd go as far to say that he'd be an excellent third option, maybe even second if he can get healthy and repeat 2010.

But not at $6.5m. Never.

Pay him his buyout of 250K and then try to sign him to an incentive laden deal. 2 years/4 million with bonuses that could reach 1-1.5 million/year. I really like the possibility of Capps in the 7th, Burton 8th, and Perkins being the closer. Now mix in the younger guys and that looks pretty good! Bullpen set for next year and not a lot of $$$$$$. Now go get a starter or two.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I'd go as far to say that he'd be an excellent third option, maybe even second if he can get healthy and repeat 2010..

If he's healthy, and if he could work his way back to a mid-7's strikeout rate.

Good riddance to bad rubbish.