Paying a free agent piotcher is a luxury for msot teams. You hope for one or two good seasons. With the opt-outs that are in many contracts, you have the ability to front-load for a stud, hope they give you the quality, and let them walk. Or even if you sign a guy to a longer contract (3-5 years) you hopefully have the ability to trade them if it isnb't working out, but their stats are still good enough for a contending team to grab.
Even with home grown talent, it is a hard decision. Which is often why it is GREAT if you can nab one of your own talents and sign them longer term by the time they enter arbitration, going that distance of, say, a five year contract into a free agent year or two with mutual options.
Most of us in Twins Daily land were on the bubble if Jose Berrios would've been worth a $120 million contract before he was traded to the Blue Jays. Yet one or two years ago, we would've been more than happy to see the Twins sign him for 5-7 years (at what might've been less than $120m).
In the end, though, I have a hard time seing the Twins wasting $15-20 million or more on 2-3 so-so arms, rather than just investing in a probably one good arm, if available. Besides the horror stories of old, I was disappointed with the Twins final payout on Archer this last season, where the guy ended up doubling his salary because of his starts, but not really giving us...a start. Right up there with Odorizzi taking the qualifying offer. Thank goodness the 2020 season was shortened and the Twins didn't have to payout the full amount.
Again, it is a fine line. Be interesting to see where the Twins go with, say, Joe Ryan. We all remember basically not seeing any longterm worth in the likes of Kyle Gibson, as an example.