2022 was a good example of adding some solid names, happily via trade, but they blew up, along with so many others. When you have an outfield of Cntreras, Garlick, Cave and starting Chi Chi Gonzalez, while a full lineup of players are sitting in the training room, no amount of money will save the team.
And the biggie, since free agency is such a gamble, is gambling on your own players (what the Guardians have done in the past, what the Braves are doing now). Part of getting a new stadium made the Twins say "we will now be able to keep our own free agents." Well, we see how that has worked out. And, sure you will get a Dobnak contract now and then (or Blackburn, or Mays), but you also got Span, Polanco, Kepler amongst others that were much lower risk than offering a guy $105m for three years, or the Donaldson thingie.
Donaldson was a good example. If the guy is injured, that's big bucks. If he can't play third, do you have a place for him elsewhere? In the back-of-your-mind you like to think that a free agent signing might also mean that you can flip the guy if the team "blows up."