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ToddlerHarmon

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Everything posted by ToddlerHarmon

  1. ToddlerHarmon
    Absolutely true for the regular season. The postseason, where the competition level is higher, might be a different story, and we will need healthy impact players as the role players struggle to keep up. I wish I could believe that CC and BB were getting healthier for the postseason, but it doesn't look that way. Time to found out if the young players are ready to make an impact.
  2. ToddlerHarmon
    This year has shown that there will be room for Miranda if he performs, in that Solano, another right-handed, marginal infielder, has received a lot of playing time. Just as with pitchers, we have to get used to the idea that we need a few spare MLB-level bats every year.
  3. ToddlerHarmon
    I have to disagree here. Julien passing at 2B is worth more than him being great defensively at 1B (which is no guarantee), and of the options you mention, Farmer and Solano are not here for the long term, Lewis and Castro are needed elsewhere around the diamond (especially if Buxton remains injured), Lee and Martin are unknowns at MLB, and while Polanco is again showing he could be worth his contract options, he is often injured and dropping in defensive ability. For 2023, 2028, and everything in between, having Julien playing 2B is the right goal.
  4. ToddlerHarmon
    8 straight years of wearing 21, and no one is going to lie and say they were on the brink of posting Mike Trombley?
  5. ToddlerHarmon
    Had to look up Bill James' favorite stat, Runs Created, which takes in the entire offensive output, for clarity. Also, let's throw in wRC+ which is *rate* of Runs Created weighted for league, era, park, etc. The standout years for notable Twins (Zoilo's 65 and Hrbek's 84 et al don't really compare to these, FWIW): Player, year, RC/wRC+ Carew 77 145/175 Killebrew 69 143/173 Knoblauch 96 142/145 (steals galore) Killebrew 67 130/176 (missed time) Mauer 09 127/170 (missed time) Oliva 64 126/148 Puckett 88 123/150 Allison 64 113/164 and the "if only" year, 2010: Morneau 10 75/183 Thome 10 71/177 Other than the steal-inflated Knoblauch year, it is as we remember it, and even this stat can't really decide.
  6. ToddlerHarmon
    I'm afraid you are correct. Which leads me to wonder if Farmer falls off the playoff roster if everyone's healthy. Lewis, Polanco, Julien, and Solano are all hitting, and Luplow is more situationally important if he continues to produce.
  7. ToddlerHarmon
    Your roster is a fair baseline. I think Martin and Lee compete with Larnach and Miranda for roster spots, and hopefully fill the RH bat need. I also think both Maeda and, gasp, Pagan get signed, as the Twins waited on their return to effectiveness, so there should be comfort for both team and players. Given all that, your point of plenty of payroll room stands.
  8. ToddlerHarmon
    I wonder how much you would pay for Farmer’s third year arb at 33 Love your breakdown of this and just wanted to comment that Farmer had a huge opportunity with Correa struggling, Miranda down, Polanco hurt, Lewis hurt, and no one able to hit left handed pitching, but he just did not produce. If he had, I gotta wonder if Lewis would be in CF right now. Instead, he is staring down the barrel of a non-tender at age 33.
  9. ToddlerHarmon
    Ryan Jeffers at first means more at bats for Vazquez. No thanks
  10. ToddlerHarmon
    Piece of cake: DH Buxton C Vazquez 1B Solano 2B Polanco 3B Farmer SS Correa LF Gallo CF Taylor RF Kepler With exciting addition Lupnow coming off the bench against lefties. There you go, plenty of defense, and not a single one of these players are over 40! Love, Derek and Thad (I'm too scared to check whether this was our opening day lineup)
  11. ToddlerHarmon
    One of the premises of the article is that Solano is not an option: "35 and hobbled". Well he just got 3 hits hobbled, he is hitting lefties and righties well, and his defense doesn't seem to be a hindrance. Plus, he gets on base at a .380 clip. Seems a better option than Gallo, at least. If you want Lee to come make a splash, put him at third, and move Lewis to CF.
  12. ToddlerHarmon
    It's not a bad situation that Jeffers, Castro, and Larnach are only aged out of this list by a year
  13. ToddlerHarmon
    Farmer has an arbitration year left, IIRC. He will probably be on the team next year unless Brooks Lee arrives. Funny how that throwaway acquisition of Castro has made Farmer and Taylor expendable.
  14. ToddlerHarmon
    If Max Kepler has any trade value, do you trade him now?
  15. ToddlerHarmon
    Yup the FO's decisions created this offense. And whether they were wrong about evaluation, development, or offensive philosophy, those are all what they are paid to get right
  16. ToddlerHarmon
    Looking at the hitters, the "starters" in RF, CF, 3B all should be targets for improvement. RF: Playing Solano at 1B and Kirilloff in the outfield is an approach, but Solano will be exposed. Wallner up seems obvious now. CF: Austin Martin up is the only hope here, and would be a roll of the dice 3B: until Lewis is back, this is looking harsh. Brooks Lee up would be another gamble And even if you achieve that, your bench would be Taylor, Farmer, Vazquez, and Castro. All guys you want to hide in the lineup one at a time. And you also would still have three stalwarts with bad OBP in Correa, Buxton, and Gallo Ugh. Get used to this I guess
  17. ToddlerHarmon
    I know you want to heighten the suspense, Mr. Schwerzler, but your litany of movable parts ignored the two elephants in the room: Max Kepler is replaceable in right, and Byron Buxton should be the everyday center fielder, not the everyday DH. There, now Lewis at 3B and Kirilloff in the outfield and Julien and Miranda at DH and 1B can all find a home in the lineup most of the time. Heck, next year, we might even have room for Martin at 2B and Wallner in the outfield
  18. ToddlerHarmon
    All this. The all-or-nothing results pointed out in the article aren't some fluke of luck. They are the predictable result of not enough baserunners, and not enough contact to keep them moving. On the rare days that 5 or 6 mighty uppercut whiffs connect for an extra-base-hit, you get 7 plus runs and look amazing. On the twice-as-likely days when only 2 or 3 swings connect, you look like, well, the Twins. I'm here to preach that your love for BA is NOT clinging to a pre-analytics world. Here's the math that Billy Beane listened to that Falvine refuse to hear: it's the number of games where you score runs that matter, not the number of runs you score. As far as specific hitting approach goes, the (broken) SLG approach loves maximum exit velocity and high launch angle, which makes an easy formula for strikeouts - just pitch high and low, and watch the popups and choppers and whiffs pile up. The (useful) OBP approach loves a level swing and letting pitches travel, defanging vertical movement and velocity changes. Yes, it means Luis Arraez will hit fewer homers, but on the other hand, Joey Gallo or Byron Buxton could leave a few MPH of exit velocity in the tank and still clear the wall.
  19. ToddlerHarmon
    I'm holding on to hope that the Twins intend to have him be the usual center fielder by the end of the year. The fact that he has started stealing frequently this month could point to several good signs: his health is improved or steady, the Twins value the impact of his speed more than they fear injury, and the Twins have a plan that involves restoring more of his game as he remains healthy.
  20. ToddlerHarmon
    6. The Royals aren't getting help from their AAA club any time soon.
  21. ToddlerHarmon
    I haven't seen anyone defend a B grade yet, so here goes: Performance-wise, they are in first place, and have a sizeable run differential, but are barely over .500, and trending down: B- Talent-wise (also known as FO performance), they have a predictably top heavy bullpen and poor-OBP, therefore streaky, lineup. But you can't fault the rotation that this FO has put together, the lineup fixtures that are under team control, and the fact that they didn't sell the future of either to get there: B+
  22. ToddlerHarmon
    With Alex Kirilloff back, and Royce Lewis playing games again, the Twins best-case offense is coming together, if Rocco and the front office are willing to lean into it. It looks like this: C Vazquez 1B Kirilloff 2B Polanco 3B Lewis SS Correa LF Gallo CF Buxton RF Kepler DH Julien Bench: Jeffers, Farmer, Taylor, Miranda This starting lineup has no defensive holes and should produce, with power, patience, and a little speed. It might be good enough that Kepler can hit ninth. The bench defenders are strong, provide adequate offense, and can be used to stack the lineup versus lefties. Julien and Miranda allow you to play a platoon DH or fill in, while Lewis can stay in the lineup while giving almost anyone a rest day. Of course, this requires moving on from Solano, Gordon, and Castro, as well as choosing Julien over Larnach or Wallner, and limiting Miranda's playing time. It also requires Buxton playing center. But it doesn't jettison or block any essential young players. I'm hoping the Twins are ready to make these moves for the second half of the season. I would love to see this be our offense for the playoffs.
  23. ToddlerHarmon
    Shocking revelations! You found fans from Schaumburg and the Gold Coast that aren't destined for that level of The Abyss reserved for insufferable Cubs fans.
  24. ToddlerHarmon
    The real solution is Buxton in center, and then Gallo pushes either Larnach or Kirilloff to DH. Taylor and Solano remain bench/platoon options. It is a matter of time before this happens. Right? If Larnach or Kirilloff cannot perform well enough to start, which may take months to find out, then Lewis, Julien, Wallner, or Martin get a shot, and Taylor and Solano still stay on the bench.
  25. ToddlerHarmon
    Maybe Maeda should get the same treatment as Polanco and Kirilloff and, soon, Lewis: rehab in the minors until everything looks just so and the weather warms up. It would be a huge boost to have Ober start the year with the Twins, anyway, given how he looks right now. I don't have much confidence that this will happen, unfortunately.
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