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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Wrists are so important to hitting. David Ortiz had persistent wrist trouble as a Twin. It would have been reasonable at the time to believe that they would persist through his career. Finding a solution to the wrist has to be priority one. It might mean another lengthy IL stay.
  2. jorgenswest
    Cotton, Rodriguez, Garlick and Godoy come to mind as adds/drops from the 40 since opening day.
  3. jorgenswest
    I agree. We should look back multiple years including 2020 when he had Cy Young votes. I also agree about jumping the gun. The Twins saw some reason to sign him and must have felt they could make changes to help him be successful. That takes time. I think there is more to be encouraged about than discouraged in the peripheral data. Without question I am more encouraged by Ryan, Paddack and Winder and I have more faith in Gray. I would still see at least three more starts from Bundy and if that time the xERA and xFIP are well off league average I would move on.
  4. jorgenswest
    I posted this in another thread but it might fit better here to see Bundy in context of the other starters. It is early to project future performance based on the sample. Only Bundy and Ryan have faced over 100 batters. Once they get to the 150-200 range xERA and xFIP will be more useful but they are they best indicators we have early in the season. xERA from Statcast is taken from xWOBA which includes things like launch angle and exit velocity. Here are the ranks. 2.66 Paddack, 2.95 Ryan, 3.03 Winder, 3.39 Bundy, 5.26 Archer, 5.39 Ober xFIP use things like strikeout and walk rate which also stabilize early. 2.90 Winder, 3.19 Paddack, 3.46 Bundy, 3.72 Ryan, 4.19 Archer, 4.44 Ober I would be looking at those numbers in 3-4 more starts.
  5. jorgenswest
    Pagán was acquired on opening day. He hasn’t performed well since 2019. I think there is a chance that the Twins can help him return closer to his 2019 form but they did not have spring training to work with him. In 2019 his strike rate was 70% and this year it is 56%. With San Diego he was low to mid 60s. Is the low strike rate in part the Twins trying to make changes in season? Changes are needed. His San Diego performance wasn’t worthy of a high leverage role on a contending team. I am not sure who gets the his high leverage work but I hope they move him to a lower leverage role until he starts throwing strikes.
  6. jorgenswest
    They are all young. They won’t be ready for next year so I agree on the veteran back up. I am uncertain how you came up with the third catcher assessment at this point in their careers.
  7. jorgenswest
    The defense behind him in Baltimore was as poor as any game this season. If we are going to use stats things like strike out rate and walk rate “stabilize” around 170 batters faced. We will see that reflected in is xFIP which is currently 3.46. Launch angle and hit distance stabilize early also. It will be a little longer for exit velocity. His current xERA from statcast is 3.39. Those are the numbers I would pay attention to as he gets to the 8-10 start range if I want to project forward his performance.
  8. jorgenswest
    I agree. It would replace number 1 for me.
  9. jorgenswest
    Go to 2 catchers. Send out an outfielder. Celestino is a more useful piece in a 3 man bench with his speed and defense. Would you pinch hit Garlick for Kepler or Larnach or Arraez? I am not sure he is a clear upgrade there. If the answer isn’t a clear yes then they need to find a better third man on the bench. As for Kirilloff I think he needs a long enough stay to really get his timing down. He may benefit from an extended stay beyond his rehab days. Perhaps he finds his timing and returns when they have to go to 13 pitchers.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Royals and White Sox have few left handed bats.
  11. jorgenswest
    He didn’t give in but I do wonder if you write the same comment if that last pitch is called a ball and the batter walks.
  12. jorgenswest
    Bullpens need good pitchers. The variance due to small sample in their numbers is not a variance in talent level. As of now I believe Duffey is one of the best 8 talents they have for the bullpen that is sadly lacking in talent. They really needed to add rather than subtract from the pen this off season.
  13. jorgenswest
    They might be able to utilize Pagán situationally. He is not a pitcher you want to bring in with runners on base. He is too home run prone. If they can find situations where he starts innings and has a good match up he could give them some good work this year.
  14. jorgenswest
    True. They also let him go for a rental DH believing more in there other young pitchers. The challenge is to both identify and develop pitching. Ryan is seen as a back end pitcher that will be too home run prone. Did the Twins see more in him to develop? Since leaving the Rays where he was an extreme fastball pitcher in the minors that mix has changed. Slider usage has doubled and fastball usage is just under 50%.
  15. jorgenswest
    Sanchez looked better at catcher receiving balls than I had expected. Nice job on the end of that relay. He positioned himself well in receiving the ball before the runner. I suppose my expectations were not very high but he didn’t stand out like Astudillo or Pinto have in the past. I am more hopeful that he can be a passable catcher.
  16. jorgenswest
    The Padres improved their rotation for 2022 by replacing Paddack with Manaea. They improved their bullpen by unloading a reliever in Pagán that had been below replacement level the last two years with Rogers at the top of their pen. They will concern themselves with 2023 later. The Twins win projection for 2022 drops with this move. The outlook for 2023 is better. This is a move I would have been behind prior to Correa’s signing. Why not win the Manaea deal with someone like Woods-Richardson instead? That would be the move of a team serious about contending, They could be in the Padres spot with Rogers and Manaea.
  17. jorgenswest
    It is a very misleading stat for set up men. It is possible to come in the 7th or 8th and blow a save even though you were never going to get the opportunity to record the save. Success in those innings is recorded as a hold not a save. We shouldn’t look at the 9 failures without looking at his 63 career holds also. It might be more accurate to say he is 67-for-76 in holding the lead.
  18. jorgenswest
    I am sure the bullpen WAR ranking will be fine.
  19. jorgenswest
    Even in 2019 Pagán’s FIP was not as good as Duffey’s. Duffey has been a much better reliever over the last three years by any measure. Why would that change this year? Pagán hasn’t been a good reliever for two years and been a replacement level pitcher. The Padres did well to get anything for him after he gave them -1.64 WPA and -0.4 WAR.
  20. jorgenswest
    I guess in all this discussion I wonder why looking at a second half season sample is meaningful for relievers. Reliever sample is small in a full season. If Duffey or Theilbar happen to have better numbers in the second half than the first does that have any meaning for this year? I can’t imagine it does. If Alcala HR rates drops significantly in the second half sample after an insanely high rate the first half is that meaningful. Isn’t it likely that the true talent is somewhere in the middle? It seems we should no more be encouraged by a second half sample than worried about the first half. Projections look beyond those splits to multiple years. No one in the Twins bullpen is projected for an ERA under 4. That concerns me.
  21. jorgenswest
    2019 WRC+ was 126. Pretty impressive to be that much better than average and maybe even more so in the context of the juiced ball. 2020- 112 2021- 103 It is at least reasonable to argue the drop from 2019 to 2021 relative to league is significant.
  22. jorgenswest
    WPA Rogers 3.14 Paddack -0.49 WAR is a volume stat and does not account for leverage. The majority of Rogers’ contribution has been high leverage. Elite relievers make a difference in the win column. Starters can also or they can eat innings and add to their WAR.
  23. jorgenswest
    Seems like we’re are really hoping on the return of 2019. Paddack, Pagán, Kepler, Arraez, Urshela, Sano, Sanchez and even Duffey (with 2020) Is that a realistic hope?
  24. jorgenswest
    The Twins probably win this deal over the three years. Under control starting pitching comes at a premium and the cost of one year of Rogers and a limited corner OF prospect already 27 is often not enough. However they have invested in one year of an elite shortstop. Shouldn’t they do the opposite and go all in for 2022? I would. This move is not an all in move. Overpaying for Montas is all in. Sending prospects for one year of Bassitt or Manaea is all in. I would not have extended Rogers into his decline phase. The 2023 year is better with Passaic. Moving Correa at the deadline adds to the 2023 outlook. Acknowledging all of that I still would have gone all in while I had Correa. That didn’t happen. The outlook for 2022 is not as hopeful as it was yesterday. I am disappointed.
  25. jorgenswest
    Prior to the Correa signing I was a strong advocate for using the lens of 2023 with every addition. Using that lens this is a very good deal. Control of Paddack for three years fits that lens well. All good deals have a cost and the cost of this one is 2022. The projected performance of Rogers can not be replaced easily. I think one myth about relievers is that they are unreliable. It is true that their yearly stat line varies much more than starters but that isn’t a change in talent level. It is due to the small sample and the stats we are viewing. ERA, FIP, xFIP all need a sample beyond that inning out of a reliever in a single season. WAR variations are based on that data and a sample size that is unreliable. It becomes even more unreliable when we start looking at single season splits.
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