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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Is there reason to believe that one or the other is more likely to decline at an earlier age? Assuming there isn’t I don’t see why the Twins would want to offer the same AAV to Bogaerts when a greater ratio of his contract would be in his decline phase. I suppose someone will pay him that shortstop premium but I think he needs to be closer to 5/140 for it to make sense.
  2. jorgenswest
    Still a good find. From a pool of over 100 players in 538/539 only one player had any kind of career. Craps is not that difficult. If Julien makes it credit needs to go to the identifying and development teams in the Twins organization.
  3. jorgenswest
    Hunter wasn’t really a 538. He didn’t sign out of high school and was a first round pick later. Many first round college picks were drafted in the late rounds coming out of high school when there virtually no chance they would sign. Overbay is the bar we hope Julien passes. Good find.
  4. jorgenswest
    I would not trade Polanco if they are in contention. Julien may be really good in a partial AAA season but then really struggle in the majors as Steer did. If they aren’t in contention they should seriously consider trading Polanco regardless of Julien’s performance.
  5. jorgenswest
    Is this still true with the new September roster rules? Teams were able to add at most one pitcher. He also hit 361/425/667 in the first 18 games in September. Those games were critical at the time as they faced the Guardians(8), Yankees(4) and White Sox(3). The other 3 games were against the Royals and they were not starting AAA call ups in those games. I don’t think the narrative that dismisses his September performance is supported by the box scores.
  6. jorgenswest
    The best player drafted and signed in his spot (539) is Rocky Coppinger with 1.2 career WAR. Chris Booker (drafted and signed in 1995) was the last to play in the majors from 539. He had a career ERA of 14.29.
  7. jorgenswest
    It wouldn’t be any fun if we all agreed. I appreciate most when I have realized that a discussion has caused me to change my thinking.
  8. jorgenswest
    He did have one good DRS month. I think DRS does a good job of describing the past but much like RBIs is opportunity based. I like it best in determining a gold glove winner but I don’t think it is the best in projecting forward. The other defensive metrics might give a different picture of Kiner-Falefa’s defense. His UZR was 0 last year and 1.1 in 2021 suggesting he is an average defensive shortstop. His RAAs was -2 last year and -5 the previous year. Given the mix wouldn’t a more reasonable expectation is that Kiner-Falefa will likely provide an average glove and below average bat at SS? Would Urshela at SS with a mediocre glove and better bat help more overall?
  9. jorgenswest
    I did look revenue up. For 2021 the Cardinals were 287 and Twins 268. I thought that was reasonably close. Statista was my source. Would the gap narrow if the Twins had a longer stretch of success to rebuild a season ticket base?
  10. jorgenswest
    How similar are the Cardinals?
  11. jorgenswest
    Would he get more as a free agent than 3.7 million? Last year the three one year contracts nearest that range were Adam Ottavino(4), Archie Bradley(3.75) and David Robertson(3.5). Two were dominant and the other injured. Seems like the smart move is to see what 3.7 million buys in free agency. Why give up a player and pay Pagán? BTV nailed his trade value. 0.
  12. jorgenswest
    His projection next year will likely be slightly above his salary. He won’t have prospect trade value. He does have value. They need to find a match of a team and veteran player with a similar contract that fits the Twins need better. I just don’t see a team with that need and that player to match. Alternatively they might trade him for a failed top prospect that will now be out of options. They might be better off letting him go and shifting the dollars and 40 man spot to another position.
  13. jorgenswest
    They both have options so they have value in a back end bullpen shuttle role. Is Enlow ready for that role? Did his pitches improve during the season as he moved further from Tommy John? There is no way to evaluate that with the data we have available.
  14. jorgenswest
    The Twins have plenty of eggs to find a primary catcher for next year. I expect Jeffers will be on the short side of a platoon.
  15. jorgenswest
    Maybe… but tony&rodney did nail the Blue Jays as the best source to find a catcher. Kirk is 23. Jansen is 27. Moreno is 22. All would be a significant upgrade. All have significant trade value. If not Moreno then maybe Ober for Jansen or Duran and Urbina for Kirk. Catching is going to be expensive. The alternative may be to value what we saw from Sanchez with his ability to throw out runners and improved framing and offer him a deal to return to the Twins.
  16. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t give up on the infield yet. He wasn’t getting a lot of reps there the last two years and his numbers were not far below average and not dissimilar from the overall team play at 2B. I find the numbers more encouraging than discouraging because I think he improves if given a regular role in the middle infield. I think it would be unwise to view his role as a platoon OF based on that data.
  17. jorgenswest
    I would love to have Lopez and Moreno. You might need to recalibrate the trades so you are not sending so many players the other team needs to put on the 40 man roster. That won’t be feasible. Acquiring those two players is feasible but it will take prospects not on the 40.
  18. jorgenswest
    Upgrade? Yes. Upgrade the outfield. Keep Garlick? Maybe. I see 1 option listed on his Fangraphs page but I don’t know if that is updated for next year or whether he used an option this year. It seems like his AAA time was on a minor league contract and not an option. He has some value with an option. I hope they find 40 players with more value but the fringe of the 40 are not the critical decisions here. They need a really good and reliable outfielder that hits both left and right handed pitching. I don’t care which side of the plate he stands on. Seems like the discussion should be about upgrading Kepler who has to be on the major league roster rather than a fringe guy that can fill a shuttle role.
  19. jorgenswest
    I don’t see it. Pressly was a rule 5 pick that the Twins helped develop into a good reliever. His xFIP and FIP were both below 3 when he was traded. He took the next step with Houston in his prime. Pagán is with his 5th team since 2017. He is at an age where decline is coming soon. Command is a skill and it just may not be there for Pagán. Even in his one stand out year his numbers were fueled by an unsustainable 94.8% LOB rate. The Rays must have seen the true talent and sold high. Through May this year he had a similarly unsustainable LOB rate. This is not a skill and he came crashing down in June with his poor command that led to hard contact. The 2022 hard contact rate that was virtually the same as 2021. Why would we expect that to change in 2023? Maybe it isn’t underperformance.
  20. jorgenswest
    He also had a new pitch in the spring with San Diego. His splitter may have been OK early on but was a negative value pitch overall. It doesn’t take hitters long to catch up with a new pitch. He is 32. He doesn’t have options which are a value to a back of the bullpen pitcher that might shuttle back and forth. The only reason to pay him is you believe he is one of the relievers to count on in the final third of the game. Is he that pitcher? I think I had the first comment on Seth’s article about the trade. My reaction then “Why would they want two years of control of Emilio Pagán?” I am still wondering.
  21. jorgenswest
    Boras did not become his agent until January. His previous agent was not able to secure a top contract before the lockout. His previous agent still got a cut of his Twins contract though. If Correa had accepted the option he would get that cut also.
  22. jorgenswest
    There will be many relievers available with a similar string of 13 outings. The inning sample is so small that it isn’t meaningful and should be ignored. The Twins should at three seasons of work with more weight to the last full season for a reliever. Pitch level data like Parker tweeted is important and may be encouraging but Pagán has shown good pitch numbers previously. Command is the key for Pagán. It shows up with his balls inside and outside the zone. The result is walks as well as hard hit balls when he misses his target in the zone. Is there any reason to believe that is fixed?
  23. jorgenswest
    Andrew Albers first start game score of 76 was followed by an 85. Has there a better first two starts to a career by a Twins pitcher?
  24. jorgenswest
    I wonder if the reduction in shifts and larger bases will result in a shift in relative defensive value. Will defense up the middle be more valuable and the corners less?
  25. jorgenswest
    I think I would let him go. He probably has another similar year left but he has little space to decline. I also don’t think he benefits at all with the larger bases or shifting restrictions. Start Miranda at third and Arraez at first. Maybe look to shift some of that money towards catcher. Sanchez has an average to above average arm (14/49) but he will be a free agent. The others with the same pitchers holding runners on threw out 8/62. Base stealing will likely be a larger factor next year.
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