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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I did look revenue up. For 2021 the Cardinals were 287 and Twins 268. I thought that was reasonably close. Statista was my source. Would the gap narrow if the Twins had a longer stretch of success to rebuild a season ticket base?
  2. jorgenswest
    How similar are the Cardinals?
  3. jorgenswest
    Would he get more as a free agent than 3.7 million? Last year the three one year contracts nearest that range were Adam Ottavino(4), Archie Bradley(3.75) and David Robertson(3.5). Two were dominant and the other injured. Seems like the smart move is to see what 3.7 million buys in free agency. Why give up a player and pay Pagán? BTV nailed his trade value. 0.
  4. jorgenswest
    His projection next year will likely be slightly above his salary. He won’t have prospect trade value. He does have value. They need to find a match of a team and veteran player with a similar contract that fits the Twins need better. I just don’t see a team with that need and that player to match. Alternatively they might trade him for a failed top prospect that will now be out of options. They might be better off letting him go and shifting the dollars and 40 man spot to another position.
  5. jorgenswest
    They both have options so they have value in a back end bullpen shuttle role. Is Enlow ready for that role? Did his pitches improve during the season as he moved further from Tommy John? There is no way to evaluate that with the data we have available.
  6. jorgenswest
    The Twins have plenty of eggs to find a primary catcher for next year. I expect Jeffers will be on the short side of a platoon.
  7. jorgenswest
    Maybe… but tony&rodney did nail the Blue Jays as the best source to find a catcher. Kirk is 23. Jansen is 27. Moreno is 22. All would be a significant upgrade. All have significant trade value. If not Moreno then maybe Ober for Jansen or Duran and Urbina for Kirk. Catching is going to be expensive. The alternative may be to value what we saw from Sanchez with his ability to throw out runners and improved framing and offer him a deal to return to the Twins.
  8. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t give up on the infield yet. He wasn’t getting a lot of reps there the last two years and his numbers were not far below average and not dissimilar from the overall team play at 2B. I find the numbers more encouraging than discouraging because I think he improves if given a regular role in the middle infield. I think it would be unwise to view his role as a platoon OF based on that data.
  9. jorgenswest
    I would love to have Lopez and Moreno. You might need to recalibrate the trades so you are not sending so many players the other team needs to put on the 40 man roster. That won’t be feasible. Acquiring those two players is feasible but it will take prospects not on the 40.
  10. jorgenswest
    Upgrade? Yes. Upgrade the outfield. Keep Garlick? Maybe. I see 1 option listed on his Fangraphs page but I don’t know if that is updated for next year or whether he used an option this year. It seems like his AAA time was on a minor league contract and not an option. He has some value with an option. I hope they find 40 players with more value but the fringe of the 40 are not the critical decisions here. They need a really good and reliable outfielder that hits both left and right handed pitching. I don’t care which side of the plate he stands on. Seems like the discussion should be about upgrading Kepler who has to be on the major league roster rather than a fringe guy that can fill a shuttle role.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don’t see it. Pressly was a rule 5 pick that the Twins helped develop into a good reliever. His xFIP and FIP were both below 3 when he was traded. He took the next step with Houston in his prime. Pagán is with his 5th team since 2017. He is at an age where decline is coming soon. Command is a skill and it just may not be there for Pagán. Even in his one stand out year his numbers were fueled by an unsustainable 94.8% LOB rate. The Rays must have seen the true talent and sold high. Through May this year he had a similarly unsustainable LOB rate. This is not a skill and he came crashing down in June with his poor command that led to hard contact. The 2022 hard contact rate that was virtually the same as 2021. Why would we expect that to change in 2023? Maybe it isn’t underperformance.
  12. jorgenswest
    He also had a new pitch in the spring with San Diego. His splitter may have been OK early on but was a negative value pitch overall. It doesn’t take hitters long to catch up with a new pitch. He is 32. He doesn’t have options which are a value to a back of the bullpen pitcher that might shuttle back and forth. The only reason to pay him is you believe he is one of the relievers to count on in the final third of the game. Is he that pitcher? I think I had the first comment on Seth’s article about the trade. My reaction then “Why would they want two years of control of Emilio Pagán?” I am still wondering.
  13. jorgenswest
    Boras did not become his agent until January. His previous agent was not able to secure a top contract before the lockout. His previous agent still got a cut of his Twins contract though. If Correa had accepted the option he would get that cut also.
  14. jorgenswest
    There will be many relievers available with a similar string of 13 outings. The inning sample is so small that it isn’t meaningful and should be ignored. The Twins should at three seasons of work with more weight to the last full season for a reliever. Pitch level data like Parker tweeted is important and may be encouraging but Pagán has shown good pitch numbers previously. Command is the key for Pagán. It shows up with his balls inside and outside the zone. The result is walks as well as hard hit balls when he misses his target in the zone. Is there any reason to believe that is fixed?
  15. jorgenswest
    Andrew Albers first start game score of 76 was followed by an 85. Has there a better first two starts to a career by a Twins pitcher?
  16. jorgenswest
    I wonder if the reduction in shifts and larger bases will result in a shift in relative defensive value. Will defense up the middle be more valuable and the corners less?
  17. jorgenswest
    I think I would let him go. He probably has another similar year left but he has little space to decline. I also don’t think he benefits at all with the larger bases or shifting restrictions. Start Miranda at third and Arraez at first. Maybe look to shift some of that money towards catcher. Sanchez has an average to above average arm (14/49) but he will be a free agent. The others with the same pitchers holding runners on threw out 8/62. Base stealing will likely be a larger factor next year.
  18. jorgenswest
    I think he has outperformed who I thought he was. I was hoping for a reliable number 4 starter but he has been better. He was not a global top 100 prospect. He is fastball heavy starter whose delivery and mix were compared to Yusmeiro Petit and Ben Lively. I am now hopeful he will remain as a mid rotation starter.
  19. jorgenswest
    Is there concern the pitch clock will lead to more arm injuries with less recovery time between pitches? Will we ever see a pitcher need to concede a ball just to give his arm a little more time? If they want to shorten games couldn’t they have shortened the time between half innings? Let’s try to shorten the clock on that first. Oh wait… maybe not. They would need to cutback on commercials.
  20. jorgenswest
    Should the base size change alter thinking about what we need from a catcher next year? Will there be more stolen base attempts? Will the ability to throw out runners be more valuable next year? The league average for throwing out runners is 26%. Sanchez is at 33%, Jeffers 17% and Leon 11%. Sanchez has been one of the better catchers at throwing out runners this year and may be worth retaining.
  21. jorgenswest
    My point was that in such a small sample the contact that results in singles or not can really impact results and hence I don’t want to judge my disappointment on the deal based this sample for a reliever. I think your point is I should be disappointed in the deal based on results regardless of circumstances or sample.
  22. jorgenswest
    If the Twins are in position next year to be buyers I would take the same risk. The only way to avoid buyer risk at the deadline (particularly with the small sample of a reliever) is to not make deals. Even in the September 2 game it could have gone differently. My recollection is the number 8 hitter grounded out then he gave up two singles. One was out of the reach of Correa and the other bounced in front of Kepler. Singles happen. If those two come off the bat a little differently it would have been extra innings. He did lose control after that point. Has he ever been in a bigger spot in his career? I hope he comes out better next time and maintains control. I still make the deal. It is the cost of being a buyer at the deadline. If you want to win those deals it is better to be on the side of the seller.
  23. jorgenswest
    I appreciate the incite and makes me wonder which of Camargo or Isola is a better option to be added to the 40. There will be a need for a third catcher to be on the 40 during the season. I think defensive readiness trumps offensive readiness in this role. In 159 innings Isola has just one passed ball but he has allowed 39 stolen bases in 40 attempts. That is a massive number in only 159 innings. In 412.1 innings Camargo has 8 passed balls and allowed 36 stolen bases in 55 attempts. There are other important defensive contributions from catchers that aren’t measured here but I don’t see how Isola would be ready to play catcher. If the Twins feel Camargo is close enough to be ready defensively he has shown enough bat to earn that spot on the 40.
  24. jorgenswest
    Some of his metrics are better than Urshela’s this year but I will buy that Urshela is the better defender next year. At 3B I don’t think Urshela can come close to making up the difference in their bats with his glove. If limits on shifting are employed the need for range from a 3B even gets smaller. Miranda will likely improve both parts of his game with experience. Urshela will probably decline some next year. I really don’t think it will be that close next year.
  25. jorgenswest
    In order to be eligible for the playoffs he needs to be on the 40 prior to September 1. It is possible in the case of injury to petition but if they know they will bring him up it should be before September 1. Why bring him up? He may be ready enough to be a better option than the current staff and question marks on the IL. Why wait until the winter to add him? If he is not ready they may have to burn an option to return him. I would add him and start him Tuesday or have him ready to follow Archer’s 3-4 innings. The risk of using and needing that option down the road is outweighed by the need of some upside in the pitching staff.
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