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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Farmer’s career OPS against right handed pitching is .658. I wouldn’t start him against right handed pitching. Castro may not be much better but he also adds speed when he is on base.
  2. jorgenswest
    The difference defensively between the two is marginal at best and the bat matters more at 3B. Play the better bat every game.
  3. jorgenswest
    It would be nice to have another everyday bat for the top half of the line up. Someone like Polanco would really help. Jorge didn’t inspire much confidence at 3B last year but that was without working on it in spring. He isn’t needed there anyway with Castro. His bat is needed. Any everyday top half of the line up bat is needed. Falvey knew the budget. He chose Farmer and DeSclafani over Polanco. The dollars are virtually the same.
  4. jorgenswest
    The biggest loss is his bat. They have plenty of coverage at 3B. A Castro/Farmer platoon will work with Julien playing 2B. Margot can play across the outfield. They need a bat that can play everyday regardless of position. Who is that bat?
  5. jorgenswest
    I am fine paying him the 6.25 at last year’s budget level. This year I would have prioritized the smaller budget differently. Farmer needs to show he can hit right handed pitching. If not, he needs to remain in his short side platoon role and they must look elsewhere to replace Lewis. They can’t put a weak bat at a corner.
  6. jorgenswest
    That wasn’t a play I thought he could make last year. Squared up the lefty also after working the count in his favor. Everyday player?
  7. jorgenswest
    Career path from college to majors in second full season it might be Knoblauch or Walker. Walker played 2B after his terrible shoulder injury as an amateur. The hit tool might be similar particularly the strength against right handed pitchers. Knoblauch made it out of spring training in his second full season as a non roster player. He also comes from a baseball family like Lee.
  8. jorgenswest
    Duran is the reason the Twins are seen as a good bullpen. He is one of the best in the game. Remove Duran and they are mediocre at best. Fangraphs ranks bullpens by WAR. Duran represented 37% of that WAR. The new additions in Okert (0.3), Jackson (0.3), Topa(0) and Staumont(0) barely move the needle.
  9. jorgenswest
    I think they already push a good nutrition and conditioning plan with all of their players. How would they mandate it? What is the consequence? Release? No offer of extension? Committing to strength and conditioning needs to be self mandated. Some are better at it than others and one of a player’s “tools” that should be considered upon acquisition.
  10. jorgenswest
    There were a few others in the organization that failed to make the pipeline but in hindsight are probably top 30 if reranked with some in the top 10. Kala’i Rosario (drafted 2020) Spencer Steer, Eduardo Julien, Louis Varland, Brent Headrick, Sawyer Gipson Long, Casey Legumina (drafted 2019) Kody Funderburk (drafted 2018) Yennier Cano, Jair Camargo
  11. jorgenswest
    I know better than to be concerned about the spring stats of any individual but it is getting hard to ignore all of the team losses.
  12. jorgenswest
    All players need to make adjustments as they work through the minors. Some handle it and make it. Some take more time. If Larnach is going to have an impact on a corner or DH he is going to need to hit and hit with power. He will need to hit breaking balls well enough to force pitchers to throw the fastball more often. Those changes have been slow in coming. If Martin is going to be more than a utility player he needs to hit with some extra base power. That has been slow in coming partially due to injury. I hope that he continues to seek more power in his approach. With a little more pop he is a major league regular.
  13. jorgenswest
    This isn’t very compelling evidence. Is his velocity down? Has the movement changed? According to Fangraphs swinging strikes are way up. Velocity is not his ticket to the majors but has it dropped a few ticks from the 91.4? Velocity is Staumont’s ticket. Has it returned to pre-injury level? I read it was down early on. I also saw he recently hit 98. I think Alcala already earned a spot over Staumont. If it is between Staumont and Funderburk I am not looking at ERA or even strike outs and walks to make the decision. Even the pitch level data is unreliable at this point but it is far better. edit: Staumont’s velocity update
  14. jorgenswest
    Couldn’t they keep all 4 relievers and send out Varland until a 5th starter is needed on April 10? In that case though I would have kept a left handed bat and sent down Sands. They shouldn’t need a 9 man pen to start the season.
  15. jorgenswest
    Agree. I don’t think the Mariners make the trade unless the Twins take DeSclafani. It certainly would have been a better trade without him. Falvey did not set the player budget but he was responsible for allocating it. Polanco had to be traded once they chose to tender Farmer. Is the 2024 team better with Polanco, Varland and Alcala or Farmer, DeSclafani and Topa? I think the money is virtually the same. No move should have been made this winter that didn’t improve the 2024 team.
  16. jorgenswest
    If there is a need in the outfield and Brooks Lee the best bat available against right handed pitching it sure would be nice to have Lewis ready to play out there. His athleticism is such a good fit and all of the other options appear to be role players rather than every day players. I know that Falvey said last year that it was not an option for 2023 with his May start. It is 2024 and it isn’t hard to foresee a need in the outfield until Rodríguez and Jenkins arrive.
  17. jorgenswest
    Agree. I think the only ones that can assess readiness are those that have been with him in every work out, batting cage and game. Stats from last year or this spring are of little value. I hope they leave spring with the best possible lineup against right handed pitching rostered. That line up took a hit with the loss of Polanco and possibly Gordon. That left Santana or Larnach or maybe Lee as the best candidate. If it is not Santana then I guess we have to hope for an injury to make the roster work. It seems odd to hope for an injury. Which IL stay by a position player would have the least impact on winning?
  18. jorgenswest
    The spot for Lee is against right handed pitching. If he is judged to be better than Santana do the Twins need to find a spot for him? If so, there is certainly a spot in the lineup with Lee at second and Julien/Kirilloff at 1B or DH. Finding that roster spot has been made difficult with the decision to go with so many short side platoon bats at the cost of Santana playing regularly against right handed pitching. If Lee is deemed to be in their best line up against right handed pitching which they will see about 75% of the time, which position player has the least value to the team to make a spot for him?
  19. jorgenswest
    We have learned that Buxton can play centerfield. That alleviated my biggest concern entering the spring. I entered spring concerned about their line up against right handed pitching as well as their rotation depth. Those concerns remain.
  20. jorgenswest
    Varland is more valuable and no one else is nearly as valuable as either of the other two Padres pitching prospects. If they are going to top the Padres deal I don’t see a pitching prospect other than Varland that would make it work.
  21. jorgenswest
    Looks like quite a good package. It would have been hard for the Twins to best Thorpe and Iriarte. They could have sent Varland and Festa but they would have ended up thinning the depth. They could have matched Zavala and the reliever.
  22. jorgenswest
    Maeda finished second in the Cy Young voting in a year the Twins won the division. I want to lose more of those deals.
  23. jorgenswest
    Dylan Cease trade talk making the news again. The reports state the White Sox desired return from the Rangers is utility man Ezequiel Durán and pitching prospects Brock Porter and Jack Leiter. Seems like the Twins can match that with something like Castro, Festa and Gonzalez. The Padres are reportedly in the mix now as well as the Yankees. The Twins should join in. His contract this year is 8 million so it would take an increase of 4.7 million (Castro is at 3.3). If that is the stumbling block then it was a really huge miscalculation to sign Farmer. As valuable as he is to the club, his role isn’t close the value of a good starting pitcher. Let’s keep the payroll talk to other discussions though. Does the trade make the team better? What would it take to get Cease?
  24. jorgenswest
    I don’t disagree about a plan to have him start the season as the 6th starter as Ober did. That plan should have included a mid rotation starter to push him to AAA rather than a veteran back end starter that isn’t clearly better. I jump in to remind everyone of the run scoring context of the international league in 2023. This is a league where an average of 11 runs were scored per game. Varland had 15 starts and a 3.97 ERA. Only three other starters in the league with at least 15 starts had a better ERA. Of those 4 pitchers only Varland had an ERA, FIP and xFIP all below 4.00. He was arguably the best and most dominant pitcher in the IL last year.
  25. jorgenswest
    Seems like they have done pretty well. Kohl Stewart didn’t make it but Berrios has been an all star. Petty is on track to be a major leaguer. It seems like an irresponsible headline focused on the Twins. Is it honestly a Twins trend or failing? Compare Berrios to other guys drafted 32. Are there any high school pitchers drafted in that slot that will have better careers? Compare him to his draft class. There are several that didn’t make it drafted before him. Anyone recall Ty Hensley, Lucas Sims or Nick Travieso? Wouldn’t it be better to focus the title on just Soto or the challenge of going from high school to successful major leaguer?
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