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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Of the position players I would like to see a bat emerge that can join the line up against right handed pitching. I would hope Larnach could win that job likely at the expense of Farmer. If they think Larnach can approach an 800 OPS+ against right handed pitching they need that bat. Even in his inconsistent start to his career his career OPS+ against right handed pitching is 741 and better than we should expect from Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez. Losing Farmer does hurt the line up against left handed pitching and depth behind Correa. I think the short side platoon loss can be minimized. Even in games started by a lefty that probably means two plate appearances. I don’t think the drop in the game takes a hit with Julien at the bottom of the order seeing that lefty at most twice and then likely right handed relievers. Castro is also an option to start some at 2B as well as being a defensive sub. Castro is also my short term option if Correa needs a day or two of rest. If he needs an IL stay then Lee gets his feet wet or they bring up Helman. I hope that Larnach has an opportunity to win a job. I also hope Lee has an opportunity to win a job.
  2. jorgenswest
    The roster construction with three short side platoon players makes it difficult to hope. Someone of Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez needs to start against right handed pitching. All are projected to be below average against right handed pitching in what is essentially a DH opening. The only one with options is Castro so I guess they could send him out for a good bat against right handed pitching in order to realize that hope. The only other way to realize that hope is to hope for one of the other short side platoon players to get injured.
  3. jorgenswest
    There is little data to pay attention to in spring. Traditional stats are worthless. Velocity has some meaning though.
  4. jorgenswest
    As long as they are willing to let go of DeSclafani, Santana, Margot, Farmer and the new reliever additions I am OK with adding this decline phase set. If they hit on a few it can be a productive winner unless they negate those wins by retaining those performing below league average. How patient will they be with poor performance? They released Blake Parker on July 29 after 105 games. Have they released any similar veteran addition earlier? A previous administration cut loose Jason Maquis after 41 games. I hope the line this year is closer to 41 than 105.
  5. jorgenswest
    They may not be done yet. They may try to find someone to take Farmer but his contract may be prohibitive.
  6. jorgenswest
    One of these 5 bats needs to be the DH against right handed pitching in Santana, Farmer, Margot, Castro and Vazquez. Not one of them project to be league average against right handed pitching. No worries though because we are set against lefties now.
  7. jorgenswest
    Would Margot have made the Dodger roster? Kike Hernandez gives them more flexibility as the 4th OF on the short side of the platoon. Would DeSclafani have made the Mariners starting rotation? No. Both the Dodgers and Mariners took on a portion of these bad contracts in order to make a deal work this winter. I don’t think either team wanted either player and they needed to find a team willing to take some of the contract burden.
  8. jorgenswest
    Encouraging inning from Woods-Richardson against the top of the Yankee line up. It was encouraging because he starts spring with a velocity that is up from last year ranging 92.2 to 94.5. He also had good differential between fastball and change up. He threw strikes. Nice work against LeMahieu, Soto and Torres. His strength is shown by the stuff+ but he needs to pair that with velocity better than the 89-90 he showed too often in games last year and he needs to be in the strike zone.
  9. jorgenswest
    I am curious. Is the $100 in market option going to sell well? I have mlb tv and not in twins market. My TV comes over the air so if I were in market I probably would reluctantly pay the $100 but then I guess I watch those other teams also. Maybe I find a radio package. Is DBack TV the only option to see Diamond back games in market? If given a choice between RSN through paid TV provider or a $100 Dback TV where would most land? If these were the options for the Twins I wonder if viewership would be reduced. It sure seems like revenue would take a hit. edit: I tried getting clarity on the linear TV options. Apparently that piece is not worked out yet according to the Arizona Republic. I wonder if it would also be subscription based in order for the DBacks to get revenue from this option.
  10. jorgenswest
    Signing decline phase veterans to one year lower dollar contracts is a recipe for mediocrity. In order to compete at this budget level they need to develop their own cost controlled talent. Instead they are filling the bench and back of bullpen with short term low upside veterans.
  11. jorgenswest
    I would have taken the Farmer and Santana and DeSclafani dollars and spent them on one player. It would be close to the Corbin Burnes salary. Deal Polanco to Seattle but let them keep DeSclafani. I wonder if Seattle does the deal without DeSclafani. Nontender Farmer Win the Corbin Burnes trade. They can better DJ Hall with Varland and then add two other prospects like Gonzalez and Miller or Salas. If dollars remain as add that bat against left handed pitching. The fight for Farmer’s utility spot is between Martin, Helman and Prato. The fight for Santana’s more regular role is between Miranda, Severino and Lee (Julien would get more time at 1B/DH). Burnes plus the two that emerge during the season of the 6 listed gives them a better shot in the playoffs than DeSclafani, Santana and Farmer. The 2025 team suffers with the loss of Varland but they will have a comp pick to develop in the longer term.
  12. jorgenswest
    Weren’t they in first place at the deadline in 2022?
  13. jorgenswest
    I wonder about Madrigal because the hit profile looks similar. Madrigal is two years older and further into his career so maybe there is a picture of what the Twins have in Martin. I appreciate the thoughts. It seems like to have value beyond the bench Martin is going to have to provide more offense than Madrigal has with the Cubs. It really hinges on whether the walk rate can stay high or if major league pitchers will pound the strike zone and let him put it in play. Another hitting comp at least based on their strikeout and walk rates as well as their ISO in AAA last year is Celestino. Martin and Celestino are the same age.
  14. jorgenswest
    Is Nick Madrigal a comp?
  15. jorgenswest
    Who is your DH against right handed pitching? Isn’t the bar either Santana or Castro? That is likely a pretty low bar. Larnach hopefully clears that bar but he isn’t on the roster if they add a right handed bat and retain Farmer. Polanco would have cleared that bar. Gordon’s projections against right handed pitching clears that bar. Martinez clears the bar and might be doable on a one year commitment. Otherwise they may as well hope on Larnach or a healthy Miranda. If Brooks Lee clears that bar put him on the roster on that spot and DH Julien. That can’t happen either if they add a third short side platoon bat.
  16. jorgenswest
    I just want Lee to have the opportunity to win a job in the spring. I will always be the first to argue that spring training stats have no meaning. That doesn’t mean that his performance in the spring has no value. Slash stats can’t measure that performance. It is on the staff to make the assessment. There are some parallels to Chuck Knoblauch. He was drafted in 1989 and played in AA in 1990. He did well but not dominant. He used his non roster invite to dominate in the 1991 spring training sending the 1990 starter to a bench role. Knoblauch didn’t quite have the draft pedigree (25th) or the prospect rank (72 BA) but close. Both grew up with baseball Dads. Knoblauch’s dad playing in the minors for 8 years before becoming a legendary high school manager in Texas. There are several parallels. The bar is high. Lee needs to show he is ready to be an everyday player at the major league level and the Twins really need one more everyday player. If he brings it in the spring they need to make space. Knoblauch’s impact was significant in 1991. Lee’s can be too.
  17. jorgenswest
    I am glad to have both catchers. @Shaitan makes a good point about Vazquez helped make Jeffers better. We need both. I am also glad to have Camargo in reserve.
  18. jorgenswest
    Spring training stats are meaningless. Spring training is meaningful. The staff working with him everyday needs to be able to assess if he is ready. They need to be able to assess his ability to hit left handed pitching. The sample against a lefty is too small to make any conclusions. Look at the variation likely due to sample in 2022 (.937 OPS) and 2023 (.603). If he shows readiness they need to put him on the roster. They also need to be building in the flexibility for his arrival. I would suggest that they get Lewis some work in LF and CF. If not Lewis then the DH spot is open for Julien. Martin needs to be given the opportunity to win a job also.
  19. jorgenswest
    I would aim for 90-95 games started while arranging the rotation where he is able the DH against left handed pitchers another 20 or so games. He will need to hit like last year to earn those DH opportunities.
  20. jorgenswest
    Rosario is projected by ZIPS and Steamer to be the better hitter. His contract is 1.5 million. Over their careers both are much better against left handed pitching but Farmer is more extreme. I don’t think the Rays were ever going to take Farmer’s contract. There were too many options on the market that would sign for less. No missed opportunity here. I hope Brooks Lee and Austin Martin have the opportunity to win the job over Farmer.
  21. jorgenswest
    I always appreciate your posts @Riverbrian Your post makes me wonder if 3 platoons is ever feasible. This year in particular they will have a back up catcher and up the middle player in Vazquez and Castro. Neither is a platoon player but both are critical. That leaves two spots. You can’t platoon 3 positions with those two spots. More than ever they need JD Martinez who doesn’t need to platoon. His career OPS against left and right would rank first (dwarfing everyone else) and 4th. He is old and in decline also but has space for that decline. MLBTR listed the Twins among possible destinations today though a long shot.
  22. jorgenswest
    I would start Kepler and Julien and even Wallner a fair amount against the smaller proportion of left handed pitching they see and add a bat for right handlers. I think your long term tells us Santana is significantly better against lefties but I don’t buy that his numbers randomly pinball. He has declined as a hitter and at this point from 1B/DH is only useful against lefties. Larnach Is the better option for the strong side platoon right now but he gets knocked off the roster if they add a weak side platoon outfielder. Even in games that this added short side platoon hitter starts they are probably going to see that lefty twice. It is a better use of spot to go strong side and give our talented young left handed hitters some needed at bats against lefties. Why not give them until after the all star break to show if we really need this limited use bat? There are always these kinds of bats available at the deadline. I’d even be OK if the found a new home for Farmer forcing Julien into more of those at bats with Martin in the roster getting others. Should they really roster three short side platoon players in Santana, Farmer and the new bat?
  23. jorgenswest
    Do you think it is wise to use career stats for a 38 year old? Almost all of his career numbers are age 26/27. Is that relevant at 32?
  24. jorgenswest
    They had two off days in April. They played more games in April than any other month. They did have a stretch mid August where they could have skipped the fifth starter a few times but chose to give extra days of rest. Rest may have been helpful then.
  25. jorgenswest
    Wouldn’t facing major league batters lead to many more high stress at bats and innings? Stress in the sense that the at bats would go longer. Finishing innings would take more pitches.
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