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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I join the group that want the Twins to stop signing the one year stop gap free agents. Even the group that would advocate for signing those inexpensive veterans, signing Kiner-Falefa to play him at SS would not be a parallel the signings of Bader and Santana. In every season in which Kiner-Falefa has over 100 innings at SS he has a negative OAA. According to OAA Lee was a better shortstop last year and by wRC+ Lee was the better hitter.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don’t. I wonder how much it matters. I suspect most of the damage was done against right handed pitching. That still seems like a positive thing. The alternative is a line up full of right handed bats that makes it too easy for the starter to get in a rhythm. Larnach will take longer at bats and put the ball in play better than Wallner against a lefty. Situated between two right handed batters he makes it more difficult for that right handed reliever that is going to come in mid game.
  3. jorgenswest
    Maybe. There are a lot more like Povich than Skubal so that is probably true of everyone. It turns out he started against Skubal once and Povich once. He also started against Crochet.
  4. jorgenswest
    Larnach has the odd split. He hit better last year in games started by a left handed pitcher than when right handed pitchers start. His OPS in games started by a lefty was .775 as compared to .720 in games started by right handed pitchers. Why? He started 15 of those 25 games so it isn’t just pinch hitting after the lefty starter has been removed. He must bat later in the lineup and see that lefty no more than twice. He then must clean up on the right handed relievers. Random small sample? Maybe but this is true for his career numbers also. He has been helpful and playable in games started by lefties in his career. Wallner does not have this odd split. He has done very poorly in games started by a lefty both last year and his career. A big part of that is his very poor pinch hitting record over his career. He hasn’t been playable in games started by a lefty.
  5. jorgenswest
    What is the definition for a rebuild? Is part of it trading off multiyear assets during the winter? Is it noticeable in a drastic change in the payroll? Is it evident by no free agent signings in the winter? Would that rebuild team have the near youngest average batter and pitcher? Would it start the season with near the highest ratio of pre-arb players? All teams out of it at the deadline are going to trade off expiring and even near expiring assets like Berrios. They are going to trade off big contracts if they can find a taker. I wouldn’t see that as an indicator of a rebuild.
  6. jorgenswest
    It has always been the real job of catchers to receive balls and make them look like strikes. That won’t change next year but I guess there will be a time when that part of a catcher’s job will change with full ABS. Search Johnny Bench and framing and you will see him explain how he would turn his glove to receive pitches in the various outside edges of the strike zone. It is now called framing and once called receiving but it has always been a part of being a catcher. Those nostalgic to the eras of Johnny Bench or Elston Howard should want to keep the skill of receiving a ball part of the game. I am fine with the change but for me it should be all ABS or no ABS. The challenge system is unnecessary here. The result is immediate and it does not need the time for review.
  7. jorgenswest
    There will be new aspects of catcher skill and with only 2 challenges framing will still be critical. Some will be very good at identifying balls that are strikes. Patrick Bailey speaks of the skill to goad hitters into making challenges that will fail. Challenge success rate for catchers in AAA was 56%. My guess is that some will be much better than that and others much worse. I hope Jeffers lands on the plus side. Pitchers and batters were less successful than catchers in challenging pitches.
  8. jorgenswest
    The history of catcher equipment is fascinating and a lot has to do with getting more strikes. Better pads and pads on the outside of the uniform in the later 1800s allowed catchers to crowd the strike zone more. The circular pocket of the 1920s allowed catchers to pocket more balls but they were still using two hands. Johnny Bench and Randy Hundley were the first to catch one handed with the innovation of a hinged catcher glove. They were both known for their ability to get more strikes. Catchers have always worked hard to capture more strikes. The change recently was the ability to measure that skill with tech. Framing has always been around and I have appreciated the catchers with the skill to do it well.
  9. jorgenswest
    Springer was not drafted as result of a 100 loss season. Those were the 2012 to 2015 drafts. Like Altuve and Keuchel he was one of the pieces that was acquired prior to the drafts that resulted from the 100 loss seasons. Their top picks from those disastrous seasons were Correa, Aiken and Appel all picked first and Bregman picked second overall. Like the Brewers and Guardians it was about acquisition and development. By 2013 it was a commitment to young players instead of veterans in team friendly one year deals. They were an old team winning 74 and 76 games in 2009 and 2010. They had few pieces to trade off and the returns on those trades were not a part of the championship run. They committed to developing their own and did it well. The Twins don’t need to lose 100 games four years in a row. They need to develop their players well and give them sustained opportunities in the majors. If they can’t develop players it won’t matter if they are at the top of the draft 4 years in a row.
  10. jorgenswest
    I think quantity over quality is the way to go for International signings. No matter which go it will take a really skilled group of scouts identifying talent from the talent they see play most of which is prior to age 16. It is so hard to identify quality. Go back 10 years to the 2015 draft season. Those players would now be n the primes of their careers. The top 13 (I planned to go 10 but there was a 4 way tie) consisting of the group that were signed for 2 million or more is pretty unimpressive. There is one significant player in Vlad Guerrero, Leody Taveras has 4.5 WAR OBP er his career that spanned 6 major league seasons. The only other one to,reach the majors is Gilberto Celestino. Of the others many did not make it to AA. Less expensive bonuses were given to some quality players. Juan Soto signed for 1.5 million. Andre’s Gimenez 1.2. Oneil Cruz 900K. Tatis Jr 700K. The previous edition of the Twins front office went big. They gave Wander Javier 4 million which was the third highest bonus. At least for that year it sure seems like quantity over perceived quality would have been the way to go. 2014 may even be more dismal for the top 10 bonuses. If you are still interested look at the top 10 of 2016. Some of these 2016 guys are now just in their age 25 or 26 season so maybe have some chance of playing in the majors.
  11. jorgenswest
    Yes. They should listen. You don’t trade a player with multiple years of service time unless you get blown away. Because his salary will go up after this year the greater portion of his remaining excess value is this season. He should be worth more than twice as much now as he will a year from now. That is all in theory. In practice you don’t get that much more for the extra year. They need the headliner to be someone in or very near the top ten overall prospects. If they don’t get that wait until next year. They will still be able to get players in the top 100 a year from now. This year it has to be the top of the top 100 or hold him. I don’t think they will get that offer so they should happily hold him.
  12. jorgenswest
    I think it is Gagne. I don’t believe his defensive contribution is measured well in rWAR and the measures of his time. If I understand oWAR and dWAR correctly his offense contributed more than to his rWAR than his defense while with Minnesota. That can’t be true.
  13. jorgenswest
    I would make the trade. I really don’t see how BTV can possibly evaluate his trade value or really anyone on the outside. The range of possible outcomes returning from his elbow injury is pretty wide. The Pirates will know best the health of his arm. If they are willing to deal him that probably means that they aren’t confident in a full return and a healthy arm going forward. If they are confident I don’t see how they trade away his four remaining years of control.
  14. jorgenswest
    Mendez and Amick aren’t getting very much playing time. Mendez is the 5th outfielder in playing time. Amick is splitting time as a back up at first and third. Both are at the bottom of the plate appearances list with Blake Rodden who is returning from a season ending injury. I wonder why Mendez isn’t getting more plate appearances.
  15. jorgenswest
    Servais anyone?
  16. jorgenswest
    Baseball Savant’s list of 37 shortstops I noticed on the bottom were the two shortstops from the teams in the ALCS. I noticed Brooks Lee at 23 of 37. I noticed he was just above Correa and also above Kiner-Falefa. There were some bad plays at shortstop but is it possible that we don’t don’t the things he does well. Is he in a place where his shortstop play I. The major leagues will get better? Not sure. If he can hit at league average his play in the field at shortstop will be good enough. The Twins will have bigger problems. Baseball Savant’s list of 46 second basemen Keaschall is 32 of 46. It will probably be good enough if he hits. The wRC+ for all second base play was 90. The Twins already have a player on their roster who was above average fielder and above the 90 in wRC+ but in the roster. Kody Clemens is 19 of 46 and had a wRC+ of 98 with the Twins. His expected stats based in contact were also better than his actual stats with a xwOBA of .342 with the Twins compared to an actual wOBA of .307. Players with that difference often have improved actuals the next season. Keaschall’s xwOBA was .329. That was quite bit below his actual but I his age and return to health should lead to significant improvement in quality of contact. I would not sign a stop gap for shortstop or trade assets for a long term solution. I would bet on Lee, Keaschall and Clemens followed by Culpepper up the middle. There is a need for a back up shortstop. I would bring in competition for Fitzgerald. Kreidler is a start and should be solid defensively with little bat. I don’t think he will be the next Willi Castro. There are former top 100 players like Ezequiel Duran and Liover Peguero that will be out of options and could be DFA’d if they are looking for the next Willi Castro.
  17. jorgenswest
    Eight games into the AFL season and Mendez has not played first base. The Twins reportedly were working him out at the position in August and September. Perhaps they determined he doesn’t have the tools to play the position. Really not surprising since both Milwaukee and Philadelphia did not play him at first base in the minors and like the Twins they played several of their minor leaguers in those teams at first base. I still hope to see him play there in the AFL but the reality of how hard it is to play any position in the major leagues is setting in. I fear he is destined to be the next Larnach or Wallner for the next 6 years where there will be constant calls for the Twins to move him to first base. Let’s not do that with him. Not everyone has the tools to play first base,
  18. jorgenswest
    I also have a wonder about the Brewer trades, have the they traded key players with multiple years of service time? Burnes had one year left. Williams had one year left. I think Hader one plus the partial season. They traded him with a 4.24 ERA in the season they didn’t make the playoffs. I would like the Twins to follow this model also. They traded Duran, Jax and Varland with too much service time and little if any extra value for that time. If they trade Ryan this winter it will be with more service time than the trades of Burnes, Williams and Hader. Trading Ryan now isn’t the Brewers model.
  19. jorgenswest
    While true that the were not acquired by waiver claim it is mostly a function of their record. If a player is worthy of claiming, teams with good records like the Brewers won’t win the claim. Instead a trade is needed. They built their bullpen largely on players DFA’d by other teams. The give up cash or minor leaguers with little to no prospect status to avoid the risk the claim won’t get to them. The Twins DFA’d Trevor Megill. The Brewers sent them cash and Taylor Floyd. Floyd was a 25 year old reliever in high A with the Brewers. He has since been released by the Twins. They acquired Grant Anderson in trade after he had been DFA’d by the Rangers. Nick Mears had been DFA’d twice before the the Brewers made a trade with the Rockies. He had a 5.56 ERA with the Rockies. One of the players they traded was released by the Rockies. The other was a major leaguer and had a 9.36 ERA in 12 starts for the Rockies this year. Koenig was released by the Padres and picked up a a minor league free agent. The other two relievers in the bullpen were developed by the Brewers. Uribe was an international signing and Ashby a fourth round draft pick. The Brewers spent virtually no capital to build a bullpen. The 4th round pick might have been the most valuable asset they used. That is the Brewers model the Twins must follow. It will take an elite ability to identify and develop pitching talent that is unwanted and unrecognized by other teams.
  20. jorgenswest
    Jon Heyman reported the Twins were specifically interested in Tong this summer in a trade for Duran. The Mets were unwilling to deal two top prospects.
  21. jorgenswest
    Wow! That is rough. The Twins have one player in their system that has better than an FV55/55 for defense in center fielder Rodriguez. There were just seven shortstops in the minor leagues with an FV55/55 for defense according to Fangraphs 2025 update. That was Kreidler’s level in his last prospect report in 2023. I think more minor moves can and will be made.
  22. jorgenswest
    Not enough. Let’s stop with this top 100 stuff as if they are all equal. There are maybe 20 FV 55 and above. After that there are a bunch of FV50, FV45+ and FV45. That gets you to nearly 300 players. The middle of the top 100 is closer to number 250 in future value than number 10. The majority of those players do not make an impact in the majors. Roden was a top 100 going into this season. The Mets have one player that is above FV50 according to Fangraphs. That is the player they need to get and if the Mets aren’t dealing they aren’t a match.
  23. jorgenswest
    I agree. Then they must hang up the phone and keep Ryan. There isn’t anyone else that can headline this deal. The Twins would be fools to take a guy hoping he can develop a third pitch. That guy is destined to be a reliever.
  24. jorgenswest
    Got it. I guess I need to learn how to turn it off in a basic google search. When I search the top part always says from AI.
  25. jorgenswest
    Hey @Mike Sixel I noticed the downvote on the description of the requirements to eligible for a fourth option. Did the downvote mean that I got something wrong there? I would like to fix it if that is the case. I used Google search and copied as I cited so maybe I got something wrong.
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