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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I guess those next two starts include the Yankees and Mariners. A good start against the Yankees probably gets him beyond the 2.5. A poor start and they may go the IL route.
  2. jorgenswest
    Would Martin and Woods-Richardson bring back Frankie Montas? If so the deal is a win. They would be giving up a season Berrios where they were going nowhere for a 2023 season from Montas.
  3. jorgenswest
    Kikuchi is a lefty. Kepler likely would have been on the bench tonight. This would have been the game to help his legs recover. Pagan pitched yesterday. May not have been available today. They have other arms in the pen to replace him. The impact on tonight’s game seems minimal. Is Celestino back? Maybe he gets the key hit or scores the winning run. Maybe Hamilton has a clean inning or two midgame to bridge to the end. Theilbar? Does Toronto doesn’t have left handed bats to worry about? If they lose tonight it shouldn’t be on the unvaccinated.
  4. jorgenswest
    I guess I can respect how important the decision is to each of these players. I don’t think they are getting paid. Megill is giving up major league pay. Kepler must be giving up around 125000. This is not a decision I would have made but I can respect it.
  5. jorgenswest
    There was never any reason to think Joe Smith had changed. His ERA has bounced around due to the small sample of any single season of a reliever. Reliever ERA should be ignored. His xFIP has been very stable for 4 years. Use him to put out a fire against right handed batting in the middle innings and he will be useful. Pagán’s command trouble shows itself in two ways. If he pitches to stay out of the center of the plate he gives up too many walks. If he pitches to keep his walks down he gives up too much hard contact. There doesn’t seem to be a middle ground. His outlier year with the Rays is three years in the past and in a year he stranded 95% of base runners. That really isn’t a skill. His career number is 80%. This year it is 98% thus far. I would expect it to be closer to his career number going forward. The Padres wanted to send him to the Mets even without getting a reliever back. I wonder if they planned on keeping him if they didn’t find a trade partner. The Twins could have fixed their starting pitching needs by trading prospects. Instead they cut the head off their bullpen. As Chief said at the time… “No team serious about contending trades Rogers.” Unlike the Padres, the Twins are not serious about contending this year.
  6. jorgenswest
    It doesn’t matter. It isn’t a season changing decision or a career altering decision. Either can help but neither can play catcher. If Kepler goes on IL I think it will be Godoy to give Sanchez another day after being pulled yesterday. Godoy might be needed through Tuesday’s double header. As for Miranda, since Lewis went down he is 6 for 14 with 3 doubles. Was it worth all the angst when Lewis was sent down instead of Miranda?
  7. jorgenswest
    The foot work part is not a surprise. He hasn’t played SS and the foot work is very different. It takes time. It would no be reasonable to expect his foot work would be good. I wonder what the Twins see that would encourage them to continue this development.
  8. jorgenswest
    Pagan, Paddack and Medina for Rogers and Rooker. Who says no?
  9. jorgenswest
    I haven’t seen Martin play but the minor leagues is the place to try to develop your swing and risk poorer performance while making those adjustments. It is also the place to risk defensive errors while pushing a player towards SS. In Jeter’s first year and a half at SS he had 77 errors in 183 games. Tim Anderson in his first full season had 34 errors in 81 games. I don’t think I would close the door on SS solely based on those error numbers.
  10. jorgenswest
    In 2018-2018 his wRC+ were 109 and 114. In 2021 he had a significant back injury that might explain performance before and after the 60 day IL. In the outfield overall he has a positive career OOA(2) and UZR(1.3). Even in CF he has a positive career OOA. If his recovery from the back injury is full it seems like he can help a major league team.
  11. jorgenswest
    Sigh. I am not sure how your response fits. I was in total agreement with Chief when he made this statement prior to the announcement of the Rogers trade. As I read his definitive statement about Correa I recalled this similar one prior to Rogers. Merely pointed that out.
  12. jorgenswest
    I hope you are right. Seems like you said something equally definitive about the Twins trading Rogers.
  13. jorgenswest
    Seems like they can utilize him to start the second game of the double header in Detroit. He probably gets one start in AAA in between. They have another double header in June in the midst of 17 games in 16 days. There is value in keeping him stretched out and starting to slot in those games as the extra man. He also stays ready when the next injury hits.
  14. jorgenswest
    I think it is a fair question to wonder whether it is worth tendering Paddack. There are very few successful second Tommy John surgeries and look at the time between games for Eovaldi or Capuano or Clevinger or Rasmussen. I think those are the 4 success stories amidst forty some according to the Post. Did any return in less than 16 months? Eovaldi was August 10, 2016 to May 30, 2018. Capuano missed 2 years. Rasmussen had surgery in September 2017 and returned April 2019. Clevinger was September of 2020 and returned this month. It is unreasonable to expect more than one year of Paddack and by then it will be 5 years since his last good season. Is that any different than the usual fliers like Bundy and Archer? They shouldn’t look at him as any different then those two and I am not sure that is worth the cost of a 40 man spot the two off seasons and arb salaries.
  15. jorgenswest
    We can judge this trade on the success of our bullpen in the 2022 playoffs. Another factor in assessing this trade is the cost of any prospects traded to bolster the bullpen at the deadline. They gambled their best bullpen arm in the only season they are guaranteed to have Correa for a pitcher with a history of arm trouble and little success since 2019. Three years gave them a good shot of winning the trade in paper. I would trade that paper win for a run with Correa in 2022 playoffs. I was very disappointed with the trade at the time.
  16. jorgenswest
    For this game the decision to keep Miranda on the roster paid off.
  17. jorgenswest
    Ober is ready. Send him down. Keep him in the rotation. There is stretch coming up later in June where they have 17 games in 16 days. They will need him to be stretched out to contribute during that stretch.
  18. jorgenswest
    Is Larnach part of this argument?
  19. jorgenswest
    It might not be mental but playing through the pain likely altered his swing. It will take time to find the swing and get the muscle memory back.
  20. jorgenswest
    It is sorted by fWAR which gives a negative defensive run value for time spent at DH. Sanchez’ actual defense at C has been fine with a slightly positive framing number. The defense runs part of his WAR takes a hit because of time at DH. I wouldn’t have sorted by fWAR when trying to compare catchers.
  21. jorgenswest
    Is there projection forward value in that data?
  22. jorgenswest
    I am more concerned about the bullpen than first base and Arraez or left field.
  23. jorgenswest
    He is more ready to help the team than Miranda. He can help by serving in a utility role until Larnach is ready to return. Does he help more than Garlick or Celestino? He does if Correa is needing more rest to manage any return of swelling in his hand.
  24. jorgenswest
    My understanding of the situation is very different. My understanding is that he is hurt. He has hurt his knee. They are managing the swelling by getting him enough rest when needed. If the other option is to put him on the IL to recover I prefer this option. He has had a positive impact on many games since he was injured in Boston.
  25. jorgenswest
    They are managing this current knee injury with this schedule. Since the injury his OPS is over 1000 and he has been responsible for a few wins. It seems like a much better course than to try to fix it with a long stay on IL. I don’t know if this means they need to continue this path through the season. More likely it depends on the swelling in his knee. If it subsides he will play more. If not they need to try to keep him playing 4 times a week.
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