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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    First credit to the previous administration who turned a rule 5 pick in Pressly into a valuable trade piece. The trade cost them the 2019 season. I will assume that he becomes a free agent and returns home to Texas in 2020. That 2019 cost was significant. First, possibly going with the myth that relievers are fungible, the Twins sign Blake Parker. He failed and was released. Later at the deadline they had to give up prospects for Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo. Do they need to do any of that if they keep Pressly for 2019? With Pressly are they the home team in the playoffs? Do they win a playoff game?
  2. jorgenswest
    If Gray can make it through the early season without trips to the IL I think we will see him go beyond 100 pitches. If he makes two trips to the IL in the first two months like last year it would seem wise to take opportunities to limit his innings. Gray was upset being pulled from an August game against the Royals where dominated the first 6 innings and his pitch count was 92. Joe Ryan later in the season had almost the same performance after 6 innings (94 pitches) against the Royals. He was given a 7th inning and finished at 106 pitches. It was the 7th time Ryan went over 100 pitches, Gray never reached that threshold. I expect Gray will go longer in games in 2023 as long as he is pitching effectively and staying healthy.
  3. jorgenswest
    I wouldn’t want Rogers in a closer role but I think he can be very effective late inning pitcher strategically used to face more left handed hitters. Take a look at the splits from last year or his career. I think he has the best upside of the three.
  4. jorgenswest
    Sonny Gray was placed on the IL in April, May and September. I think most teams would have been cautious with his use after those two early season injuries.
  5. jorgenswest
    Seth I really appreciate articles like this. Thank you.
  6. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they need one strategy and I don’t think that is how they operated last year. There are three reasons they might pull pitchers early. They might be avoiding a third time through the line up. I think this was the case with Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and the AAA reinforcements. In this case they need better pitchers. Absent better pitchers I think I would have a short leash with them too. They might be keeping pitch count down to try to keep pitchers healthy. This might be the case with Sonny Gray who often saw more than 18 batters. He also was placed on the injured in April and then the end of May. They may have been overly cautious keeping his pitch counts under 100 in July and August but those two injuries had to play a role in the way they used him. Sonny Gray also ended the season injured. Bailey Ober also fits in the this grouping. They might not be pitching effectively that day. That really just leaves Joe Ryan who was healthy and effective. He surpassed 100 pitches several times and routinely saw the top of the order the third time through. He did need to get ramped up with pitch count to start the season and maybe for a start after his bout with COVID but his use was different than the rest of the staff. I think the best strategy is to find effective starters and keep them healthy. They need more Joe Ryans.
  7. jorgenswest
    Earl Battey also won three consecutive gold gloves. He also received MVP votes finishing 7th, 8th and 10th. Is Butch Wynegar the only other Twins catcher to receive MVP votes when he finished 29th as a rookie? Others of note include Roseboro, Engle, Pierzynski and Suzuki who were all star catchers as a Twin. Garver won a silver slugger.
  8. jorgenswest
    Just a wonder… Are starters more likely to be injured than a reliever? Given that they throw more pitches I think that would increase the opportunity for injury. This study suggests it is 2.4 times more likely. The risk of shoulder injury in a starter is greater. I have read there is a correlation between velocity and injury. I don’t think it is possible for the Twins to protect Duran from injury be keeping him in the relief role. He faces future arm injury either way. Until then how does he help the Twins more? Can he be an elite starter? That would be hard to pass up. The cost of an elite starter is enormous. The only realistic way we see an elite starter with the Twins is to develop one.
  9. jorgenswest
    In AAA teams ran more often with a greater success rate than in 2021. There will be more stolen bases and there is reason to be concerned about Jeffers. Catching the same pitching staff Sanchez was much more successful throwing out runners at 28% vs 18% for Jeffers. If Sanchez is at best average then Jeffers has significant work to do to get there.
  10. jorgenswest
    Reading the discussion I am not solidly in one camp. It did cause me to wonder about high leverage. I compared his high leverage opportunities with Joe Ryan who was pretty healthy last year. Duran faced 124 batter is high leverage last year and held batters to a .489 OPS in those situations. Ryan faced 100 batters in high leverage situations. Duran and Ryan were first and second in WPA for Twins pitchers. Duran’s WPA was the best among all AL pitchers at 4.59. Joe Ryan was 1.26. Duran was very valuable last year. Putting him in the rotation seems like a risk that might not be worthwhile. The major league leader in WPA last year was a starter in Alcantara at 5.08. There might be more value here. Is there enough potential gain as a starter to take the risk of moving Duran to that role? I am leaning toward no but listening.
  11. jorgenswest
    More likely than a pitcher winning a batting title again. That hasn’t happened in 136 years. Edit: Ohtani could be the Guy Hecker of our time by winning a triple crown, batting title and ERA title in his career. With the DH in both leagues and the likelihood there will eventually be an automated strike zone there will be another catcher that wins the title. Removing framing from the equation will open the door to more offense from the catcher position.
  12. jorgenswest
    I agree. If they have confidence that one of Julien or Martin or Arraez or Gordon can fill the role they might consider trading Polanco for something they can’t fill on the open market. How about Mariners top catching prospect Harry Ford? His BTV is 11.1. Polanco’s is 15.8. Maybe take a chance on Sam Haggerty (switch hitter with career OPS against lefties of .924 and righties .531) to platoon in outfield or Chris Flexen or both bringing the Mariner side to 15.1. The same question then flips to the Mariners. Why would they give up a top prospect to fill a hole they can fill on the open market?
  13. jorgenswest
    Let’s suppose the Twins trade him and get a prospect in return. Do they then need to spend money on a corner OF in free agency? How much do they invest in Haniger? MLBTR sees him as a possible qualifying offer candidate. He may be seeking much more than Kepler over a 2 or 3 commitment. Would that be wise? They have enough other players with troubling injury histories. They have Kepler on a pretty reasonable one year deal and some young cost controlled starting candidates for the corners. If they believe in their corner candidates enough I would trade Kepler and spend that money elsewhere. If they believe he gets that 1-2 more hits a month I would keep him. It may not seem so but 9 hits is significant. It would have brought his average to .250 last year. Kepler with his defense and that average will have more trade value at the deadline.
  14. jorgenswest
    To hit .250 Kepler would need to get 9 more hits across the season. That would be 1 or 2 a month. I answered the original question I don’t know. The Twins better know. The game is going to change with the shift rules and base sizes. They need to be ahead of the curve.
  15. jorgenswest
    It is hard to imagine finding a trade for Polanco that results in the 2023 team being better. Team interested in Polanco would not likely be interested in moving one of their key 2023 pieces. I felt the same way last winter about trading Garver is r Rogers. The Garver move in combination with Donaldson trade and Correa did improve the team in 2022. It is possible but unlikely.
  16. jorgenswest
    More of Gordon’s WAR came as a 2B or CF though he had more plate appearances as a left fielder. He was quite valuable in a utility role and would probably be more valuable as a regular up the middle. In my search I saw Jake Cave led Twin left fielders in WAR slightly ahead of Gordon and Larnach. You are right about the need at the corners.
  17. jorgenswest
    Minnesota right fielders ranked 18th with 1.5 Fangraphs WAR. Kepler contributed 1.8 of the 1.5. His 1.8 would have ranked 16th by team.
  18. jorgenswest
    Trades for minor leaguers is a critical part of the pipeline. The top three (by Fangraphs WAR) 26 and under pitchers were all acquired in trade in Alcantara, Cease and Galan. The 4th in the list Webb was drafted by the Giants in 2014 and they waited 7 years for him. Manoah is next on the list and he paid off for the Blue Jays quickly. The Twins never had a chance at him. If trades for minor leaguers are not part of the pipeline I am not sure 5 years is a reasonable amount of time to expect it to be filled by pitchers acquired in the draft. The Guardians returned to first place with a very good starting rotation. Four of those starters were drafted in 2016 and the other in 2015. I think Falvey was with the Guardians when they were drafted. Clase was acquired in trade as was their 6th starter Pilkington. I do agree that Gray is the bar for acquiring starters in free agency. I think they have developed enough near ready pitchers to fill the back end.
  19. jorgenswest
    I like the stars and young player mix with the additions of Correa and Rodon. I am not sure Leon is the best 1 million dollar catcher but it might be a spot they cycle through multiple inexpensive catchers. I get that Maeda in the pen saves money and he may actually be more valuable at his bullpen salary than his starter salary. Did you consider moving in from Urshela and shift that money to that catcher spot or Maeda as a starter or both? Sticking with Urshela might be the way to go here.
  20. jorgenswest
    You asked. Easy count. 35 signed pick 539s.
  21. jorgenswest
    More on Julien and his 2 home run game Jonathan Mayo https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-edouard-julien-homers-twice-in-arizona-fall-league
  22. jorgenswest
    Rocky Coppinger is the career 539 WAR leader with 1.2. At 538 Lyle Overbay has 16.5. Keith Brown is is the 540 leader with 0.3. That is a lot of players drafted and signed with only one significant career (unless we consider Joe Beimel’s career significant).
  23. jorgenswest
    Wherever he lands I hope he gets back to pulling the ball more. I think his attempt to make adjustments has led to more ground balls. While he is pulling the ball less he is also hitting it on the ground more often. He needs to go back to pulling the ball and get a greater launch angle.
  24. jorgenswest
    Seems like a success to me. Fangraphs valued him at 30.4 million for his two years with the Twins and with his 2020 salary prorated they paid him a little less than that for his two years. On top of that they moved him as part of a deal for players that were valuable to the Twins last year. I do give them credit for getting value out of Donaldson and moving him before his value crashed. I was wrong on the Donaldson deal being a disaster. I hope Paddack proves me wrong on the Rogers deal too. They certainly sold high on Rogers. They also appear to have sold high on Berrios.
  25. jorgenswest
    I guess it would help if there was a study with data to contradict and show that it will be little benefit to Kepler. There is a study in the Athletic which also points to a Kepler being among a handful that will benefit both with the 2B on the infield and hits up the middle. Do you think there will benefit to some players but not Kepler? Do you think it won’t have any impact for any player?
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