chpettit19

How hard guys have hit his fastball and the shape of his off speed were the concerns he listed. And for reference he had Winder ranked 8th in the system coming into the year and said he'd have been in his top 100 were it not for his injury last year. So his concerns are based on what he's seen at the major league level this season.

Law gave it a "Maybe?" response, and listed his concerns about Winder not sticking as a starter so the package would actually be too light. The bigger thing I got from that article is that other teams can put together far better packages than the Twins without touching their #1 prospects (although the Padres suggestion included Hassell). The Twins don't have great buying power in the arms race of the next 2 weeks.

The Athletic had an article today where beat writers made trade proposals for Castillo and they had Keith Law (their prospect guy) rate the package. Dan Hayes suggested the Twins could send Steer, Winder, and SWR to the Reds. Law's response was: "Maybe? I’m concerned by how hard MLB hitters hit Winder’s fastball this year, and what we can see about the shapes of his other pitches, which might mean I was too high on him coming into the year. If this is really two relievers plus Steer, who has made himself into a potential regular with his breakout, it’s too light."

The debate that was happening there was the timing of gathering those price tags, not that the conversations happened or how they went. My point was that they weren't calling Prielipp during the draft to ask his number, they already had it.

I'm with ya. They should've added more that year, and they need to add this year. I think the goal every year should be to have 26 playoff worthy guys on your roster after the deadline with some prospects in the wings to fill in any holes that pop up as the last 2 months play out. The Twins tend to be happy with like 12 playoff worthy guys on the roster after the deadline.

Dobnak started because Pineda cheated. Not that they didn't need to add more arms, but if we're being honest here there were some second half events that changed that team drastically going into the playoffs.

Yeah, you're combining different debates here. Nobody has said trades aren't important. In fact what a couple of us have said is that the FO deserves credit for bringing Ryan in through trade. We followed that up by saying we don't count him as part of the development pipeline since they didn't develop him. The FO should use every avenue to improve the team and system, but Ryan is not a result of their development pipeline because he was acquired as an MLB ready prospect. Duran was developed by the Twins after being acquired in trade so he should be seen as proof they can develop pitching. I'm not really sure what you're agreeing with and disagreeing with because you've combined different lines of discussion into one.

What moves do you think they can make between now and Aug 2 that makes them contenders this year? Again, I want them to make trades in the next 2 weeks. I am openly stating I think they need to make trades before the deadline to improve. I'm not arguing that point. My point is they don't have the pieces to make the high impact trades people want. Unless they're taking away from the players currently on the major league roster which then just moves the hole and doesn't make the team better overall. Bringing in Castillo but shipping Miranda out doesn't make them contenders. I'm saying they don't have good enough prospects to outbid teams for the big guns people want. What they can get is expiring contract relievers, and I think they should, and will, make those moves. I'm not saying "shouldn't" I'm saying "can't." I'm saying they don't have the ability to make big moves at the deadline whether they want to or not. Keeping the SS they have now is one of the options moving forward, and I hope they find a 7 year deal to keep him here. That could be part of the 60M I mentioned. They'd still have 30M left to spend after that. I'm not at all, in any of my comments, saying they should do nothing. They need to bring in more relievers, and I think they will. They're not trading Lewis, just like the Padres wouldn't trade Abrams last year and the Yankees have refused to trade Volpe. Outside of Lewis they don't have anyone in their system that is bringing back anyone who'd be seen as a "go for it" move. Outside of bringing in relievers, my stance is they simply can't do what people are asking them to do. They don't have the top end prospects to get it done. I don't think Steer and Wallner are bringing back Castillo or Montas types. They've graduated the bulk of the current wave of prospects and seen the rest of them falter and thus lose trade value so the system doesn't have much at the top. The highest ceiling prospects the Twins have are all in A ball or below. Those types of fliers don't get the kind of return that AA and AAA high ceiling prospects do. The Twins are at the point in their cycle that their best path to improving the roster is through spending to surround the young core with veterans. I'm not saying they ignore this season to play for the future by choice, I'm saying they likely have to do it by necessity. The Mets have built through offseason trades and big spending on FAs. They're not a great example for the type of moves you're asking for. They did trade for Baez last year by giving up a prospect in the range I'm saying the Twins don't have (worse than Lewis, better than Steer/Wallner). But otherwise I don't see the connection here unless you're holding out hope the Pohlads suddenly start spending like Cohen. I wouldn't suggest holding your breath on that one.

My argument is that bringing in a guy who almost immediately joins your big league staff isn't a sustainable "pipeline" model. They're 2 very different things to me. The pipeline we all talk about is being able to take non-MLB ready players, typically at AA or below, and turn them into MLB ready players. That's the sustainable model we all want. Trading Hall of Fame DHs for already MLB ready pitchers is not a pipeline model, and not what Cleveland, the Rays, the Dodgers, or whoever people want to point to as enviable pitching situations do. So the FO deserves credit for acquiring Ryan, but if their plan is to continually trade rental bats at the deadline for MLB ready arms I think they're in trouble.

I would make trades before the deadline. I'm not at all suggesting they shouldn't. I'm suggesting they don't have the ammunition to pull off the kinds of deals people want without taking away from the current players on the roster and thus not really improving the team overall. Trading Miranda plus prospects for Castillo doesn't get them closer to NY and Houston this year or next year. But Steer and Wallner aren't enough to get Castillo. That's what I'm saying as far as making trades to improve this year's team goes. I agree the window is currently part way open. I don't think they can make significant moves to open it dramatically more in the next 2 weeks. I do think they can do that over the offseason because a team built largely off players in pre-arb seasons is very easy to supplement with just dollars. And they'll have a lot of dollars to spend to supplement. Now if you don't think a top 5 of Buxton, Arraez, Polanco, Miranda, and Kirilloff is a good base to build from you'd disagree with me, and that's fine. If you don't think Larnach, Kepler, Jeffers, Celestino, and Gordon are worthy of roster spots on a playoff team you'd disagree with me. But I think if you have those 10 guys you're in a good starting spot. I think if you have 6 of those guys on pre-arb deals while the other 4 are making less than they'd get on the open market (Kepler could be debated) you're in a great spot. I think a rotation built around Maeda, Gray, Ryan, Ober, and Winder is in a great starting spot. Especially because the first 2 are under market contracts and the other 3 are pre-arb. You can buy a front end starter with the extra money there. I think Duran, Jax, and Alcala are 3 good pen arms and you can buy 2 more really good ones and 3 more decent ones with the savings from all 3 being pre-arb or arb. I see a SS, a catcher, a #1 starter, and 5 pen arms that need to be added to this team moving forward. I think a catcher, a #1 starter, and 2 pen arms need to be added to this team for this year. I don't think they have the prospects to add those pieces this year, but I think they're capable of adding the pieces for next year and beyond. I would be willing to trade prospects to improve the team this year and expect them to bring in some relievers. I just don't think they have what it takes to get a Castillo type or a catcher upgrade even though they should be calling teams about those spots.

I didn't include Ryan since he was a trade acquisition last year and not a product of their system. They certainly deserve credit for bringing him in, but their pipeline didn't develop him. To me the question is whether or not they can develop a guy through the system, and I think Duran, Ober, Winder, et al show they can.

The injuries are obviously concerning, but he's still very young and showed he's ready to compete at the major league level now. I wouldn't trade someone with superstar upside and ready for the majors who's not even close to arbitration eligible. Immediate solution is Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Paddack under contract for multiple more seasons. Miranda, Kirilloff, Lewis, Jeffers, Arraez, Celestino, Gordon, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Duran, Jax, Moran, Alcala, Larnach under team control for multiple seasons of pre-arb and arb. Maeda and Gray under contract for next year. That's 21 players under contract for next year, and, in 19 cases, more seasons than just 2023 for cheap. That's a pretty enviable situation to be in with probably 60M to spend on the market next year. If they can't get 5 guys to fill out that roster and make it a contender for 60M they should contract the team. The lower minors look to have a number of intriguing pieces. Wallner and Steer look like major leaguers. Brooks Lee has a shot to debut in the next 2 years. Prielipp could be a top of the rotation guy relatively soon. The system is not dead, but they've graduated most of this wave of prospects. They now have to fill in around them with veteran guys through trades (which I'd argue is difficult due to the wave mostly being key parts of the current team) and FA signings. The future is bright in MN, but the pieces aren't all there. They need to supplement this team without blowing up the very strong core.

The biggest problem the Twins have is the top of their pitching prospect list taking a nose dive this year. If those guys were performing well enough to be pieces in a trade for frontline starting pitching the Twins staff wouldn't be so bad because they'd already be on it. Canterino getting hurt again, Balazovic forgetting how to pitch, SWR crashing back to earth after a hot start before getting hurt, and the Sands/Strotman/Enlow types failing to take the next step has hurt the Twins in trade assets and on the big league mound. I think the FO expected at least 2 of those guys to be ready for the bigs by now and instead they got 0. All of their bigtime position player assets are already key parts of the current team (or named Royce Lewis) so you can't trade them (although, I'd move Larnach for the right arm in return) because you'd just create a different hole in the roster and not improve the team overall. Tough spot to be in here.

Now I'm blushing ☺️

I mean the real point was that the pitching pipeline shouldn't be trusted to produce since it's failed to do so so far. But I could argue Duran, Jax, Winder, and Ober are all pipeline success stories. If you guys want to draw an arbitrary line of when the guy debuted to discount a success story in the conversation about "the pipeline" being able to produce in the future that's cool with me.

And he's started 0 this year because he was thrown to the wolves last year after the season was already lost because they just needed someone to eat innings and they didn't want to do that to their big name prospects. But it's whatever. If you don't want to credit Jax in the pen as a "pipeline" success story because he was up last year that's fine with me.

Technically so was Moran. Neither was a vital part of anything, though.

To be fair Jax has been solid and Winder, while currently not on the big league roster for some bizarre reason, has been more than usable as a starter. But I agree with the general premise here.

I don't think the Twins have the prospect capital to make many big deals so I think the likely outcome is a couple rental relief arms. I just think it's a seller's market and the other buyers will be more motivated while also having the ability to outbid the Twins in most deals. Miranda and Kirilloff are a big part of the current offense, let alone the future, so trading them doesn't help the current team in the aggregate. I don't see any deal that would make sense to move them in. I'd be willing to move Larnach, but it's hard to tell what his value is right now. But if he's enough to front a deal with Cincy I'd do it. I'd trade Steer and Wallner in a heartbeat if they were going to bring back a Castillo type starter. They have a shot at being big league regulars, but I think they're more likely to be a utility and backup corner OF. The problem with them not being the kind of prospects that should be untouchable is that means they're also likely not the type of prospects that bring back frontline starters. But if they are I'd trade them yesterday for a starter. Lewis would be untouchable to me as I expect Correa to leave after the season and Lewis is the SS for the foreseeable future (I think Lee moves to 3B, and Miller is still too far away). This isn't a huge deal as the other contenders also seem to be unwilling to trade their very top prospects (Yankees have notably refused to trade either of their young SS prospects to the As for any of their stars for the last year). Martin has taken a fall this year and he's likely not enough to front a package for a Castillo type. But if he is I'd move him (makes me sad to type that as he was my favorite prospect coming out in that draft and I was super excited to get him in the Berrios trade). The arms have mostly been injured again or are stalling. That's really been the problem with this season. I think the Twins planned to compete this year by having the arms on the 40-man (plus a couple not yet on it) produce far more than they have. I think they thought those guys would be taking jobs, or at least really nice injury fill-ins, by now. Duran and Jax have done nice out of the pen, but Winder is the only starter who's filled the role I think they expected Balazovic and Canterino at a minimum to also be ready to fill by now. So the Twins biggest trade chips at this point are the super young guys in the low minors who are the only ones they could sell a team on their superstar potential. I don't want to make a Tatis Jr for James Shields trade (not that we have a Tatis Jr in the system).

As always, it comes down to price. Does the shoulder mean teams back off and aren't willing to offer as much? Is Oakland willing to take a lesser package now or would they hold onto until the winter and hope to get more then? Certainly should be keeping a close eye on his starts before the deadline to see what the arm looks like, though.

Yeah, going to have to agree to disagree. I'm quite certain they didn't call Prielipp after pick 8 and say "hey, if you're still there in 40 picks are you still asking for $X?"

At what point do they decide to call Prielipp? After pick 30? 40? How do they decide he's the one they want to call? How do they decide to call him and the "handful" they choose to call, and not the other guys who will be available around pick 48? MLB's 48th ranked player went 20th overall. Every team has a vastly different board from the others. Each has different bonus pool situations. Were they taking into account Texas taking Rocker 3rd and targeting Porter later and not Prielipp? Did the Twins call Porter as well when he was falling? Or did he not make the cut? MLB's 65th ranked guy went 24th. Did they call him after pick 20 to see if he'd still be willing to be taken at 48 and thus wasted one of their handful of calls? Do you have inside information that calls happen during the draft or are you guessing because it makes sense to you? Not trying to be rude, honestly asking. If you have inside info I'd be fascinated to hear more.

Who do you think they were calling during that time? Just random agents to confirm that the numbers the agents already told them are still accurate just in case Prielipp fell 20 picks more than they thought he would? That's not how it works. They collect all of that info before the draft. They run scenarios for all kinds of different possibilities of guys falling to different spots and who that means they can take later. I literally just told you Jud Fabian did it last year. I gave you the numbers and everything. He turned down 2 million US dollars because he thought he should've gone higher and wanted 3 million US dollars. He had been picked #40 overall by the Boston Red Sox.

Those conversations happen before draft day. They talk to the player, their reps, and their families before the draft and get an idea of where their price tag is. They aren't calling in between round 2 picks when there's a minute between picks. They aren't calling guys on day 2 and trying to figure out their contract demands then. That's not happening. They adjust their draft board and take the 100k guys off and only draft the 40k guys if that's what it takes to sign guys they drafted earlier. They aren't making those calls during the draft. They know their asking price based on conversations before the draft, not during. Players literally turn down 1st round money every single year in the MLB draft. Every year. Brooks Lee famously told teams coming out of HS that he wouldn't sign for mid to late round money as he felt he was a top 3 talent. Players turn down "first round money" every year. Judd Fabian turned down 2 million from the Red Sox last year after going in the second because he thought he was worth 3 million and wanted to prove himself and be drafted again this year. Didn't work out great for him as he was drafted later this year than last year, but he's an example that players absolutely "jeopardize their draft standing."

Get that nerd talk out of here and just program with your gut! ?